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becoming more competitive
  how the fitness industry is changing and
                      what to do about it
                                            1
Bryan K. O’Rourke, MBA
                               Bryankorourke@me.com - Fitness Professional & Club Owner

                                      connect with me @


Strategist, technologist, entrepreneur and club owner with thirty years of proven results in a
wide range of roles and industries.

His background includes serving as CFO of Al Copeland Investments former owner of Popeye’s
Fried Chicken and Church’s Fried Chicken brands; CFO and shareholder of Smoothie King
Franchises; and CEO of Applied Realtime Systems, a technology innovation company, among
other roles where he has help build national and global brands.

Bryan advises governmental agencies, non-profits and for-profits both domestically and
internationally and is active in the Mary Bird Perkins Cancer Foundation. He serves as the
Medical Fitness Association’s education committee chairperson and is an author & speaker.

His education includes a BS in Finance from the University of New Orleans, an MBA from SELU
and received the Crescent City Scholarship for the pursuit of a Ph.D. in Financial Economics.

He has focused on fitness and wellness during past 12 years and is a shareholder and executive
in The Health Club for Women, Fitmarc, Integerus, and the Flywheel group..

                                              2
change across all industries                     How is the Fitness
           the fitness industry is no exception
change is not just cyclical its also fundamental   Industry is Changing ?
                                                                       3
<3>
     demography technology


            globalism



many industries experiencing change
                              4
Check Out This DVD For More
Information on Technology’s Impact




                                     technology




5
demography       globalism

             6
Today : How the Fitness
 Industry is Changing



1.U.S. Fitness Facility
 Marketplace Overview

2.Prevalent Business
 Models & Trends




 7
in response to rapid change                   What Should You
  industries are reinventing and innovating
                creating new opportunities    Do About It ?
                                                                8
...and
What to Do About It



3.Evaluating Your
 Competitive Position

4.Planning A Course of
 Action




9
#1 U.S. Fitness Facility Overview
                               10
1    U.S. Fitness Facility
     Market Overview



•Emerging Consumer
 Factors

•Emerging Economic
 Factors




11
Emerging Consumer Factors
Health club consumer & PRIZM profiles




In 2009 IHRSA’s completed a nationwide survey of U.S. households. A total of 15,013 individual
and 26,487 household surveys were completed to create reliable profiles of members including
PRIZM segmentation.
                                                                      PRIZM means “Potential
                                                                          Rating Index for Zip
                                                                                   Marketers”
         2009 Health Club Consumer Report
                                             12
Emerging Consumer Factors
Health club consumer & PRIZM profiles

 Report Includes:

 •Trends in Club Membership
 •Attendance
 •Activity Participation
 •Member Profiles
 •Typical Consumers
 •Profiles By Club
 •Profiles By Activity
 •Club Fees
 •Cluster Analysis
 •PRIZM Profiles

      2009 Health Club Consumer Report
                                         13
Emerging Consumer Factors
Health club consumer & PRIZM profiles

                             •PRIZM is a geodemographic profiling
                             system developed by Claritas. Each PRIZM
                             divides the U.S. consumer into 14 different
                             groups and 66 different segments. As the
                             classification is household based, we can
                             compare different areas according to the
                             likelihood of joining a health club. For
                             example, the highest indexed PRIZM
                             segment is “Blue Blood Estates,” so we can
                             target “Blue Blood Estates” households
                             within the health club’s immediate vicinity to
                             recruit likely members.


                             •PRIZM analysis is more valuable than
                             generic demographic data and provides
                             more meaningful insights into membership
                             profiles.



                        14
Emerging Consumer Factors
Health club consumer & PRIZM profiles




                        15
Emerging Consumer Factors
Health club consumer PRIZM profiles




     2009 Health Club Consumer Report
                                        16
Emerging Consumer Factors
Share of Current US Health Club Market


                                                 Urban Uptown
                                                 Elite Suburbs
                                                 Affluentials
    33%                  11%                     Landed Gentry
                                                 Country Comfort
                                                 Middleburbs
                                 13%             All Eight Others


           7%                    10%         6 of 14 Segments
                11%       14%                 Represent 67%
                                               of the Market

     2009 Health Club Consumer Report
                                        17
Emerging Consumer Factors
Share of current US health club market

                     Penetration Rates = 17% Overall
   50.00%



                           41.70%            Combined 6 of 14 Segments
   37.50%
                                             Represent 67% of the Market
   25.00%
             25.10%                                        25.50%
                                           23.20%
                                                                                          20.70%
                                                                          16.40%
   12.50%
                                                                                                         10.77%


      0%
            Urban Uptown   Elite Suburbs   Affluentials   Landed Gentry Country Comfort   Middleburbs   All Eight Others

                      moving this would have big impact

       2009 Health Club Consumer Report                      18
Emerging Consumer Factors
HH “Upper Income” & education key drivers




     2009 Health Club Consumer Report
                                        19
Emerging Consumer Factors
“Price” is main objection or “perception of value”


        Too expensive                                                61

    Exercise elsewhere                                       52

      Feel out of place               18

     No available club           13

        Don't exercise               16

         Too crowded            12

  Don’t know anybody            12

                          0               17.5        35.0    52.5        70.0



       2009 Health Club Consumer Report
                                                 20
Emerging Consumer Factors - Existing Customers
Report ID’s 5 key clusters
Predominantly Male:
Focus on strength & resistance - 84% Male

Mixed Low Use:
59% use club less than 1 time a week - Less affluent
25% non-members - Even male female mix

Predominantly 50+:
Slightly more female - most affluent - 60% over 50 years of age

Super Avid Hi Spend User:
67% female - Highest participation especially group exercise

Female Low Spend:
80% female - 67% participate in group exercise


         2009 Health Club Consumer Report
                                            21
Emerging Economic Factors
Mixed low usage largest market share of members



       11%
                       18%                   Male Strength
     7%
                                             Mixed Low Usage
                                             50+ Group
   22%                                       Super Avid High Spend
                                             Female Low Spend

                        42%

                                 largest group of existing consumers
                               least affluent and least participative
     2009 Profiles of Success
                                    22
Emerging Consumer Factors - Michael Silverstein
Treasure Hunt - Inside the Mind of the New Consumer


                      Compa nies will thrive ,
                      Silverstein a rgues, by
                      catering to the penny-
                      pinching impulses of
                      consumers, or by "spanning
                      the poles" and appealing to
                      both the high and low ends
                      while avoiding anything else-
                      there's only "death in the
                      middle."


                        23
Emerging Consumer Factors - Michael Silverstein
Treasure Hunt - Inside the Mind of the New Consumer




      The “New Consumer” Seen in All Industries.
           Important to Understand “Value”
                           24
Emerging Consumer Factors
Alternative fitness options - digital technologies




                          Consumers are getting accustomed to the
                   “long tail” affect - anytime, anyplace, anywhere.
                         Estimate 2 million in US utilize some type.

                              25
Emerging Consumer Factors
Prevention - monetizing the wellness




       The emerging health care mess is creating new customer needs
                    to reduce costs of traditional care via prevention


                                 26
Emerging Consumer Factors
Consumer’s don’t trust advertising




               The Days of Traditional “Sales” and “Marketing”
                           in Health Clubs is Coming to An End

                             27
Trends - Emerging Economic Factors




                       Profiles of Success 2009




     2009 Profiles of Success
                                 28
Emerging Economic Factors
National growth has stalled for several years now


2009 Stagnant As Well

2009 $19.9 Billion
2009 45.3 Million Members

2008 $19.1 Billion
2008 45.5 Million Members

Related to economic factors
Limited supply increase
Restricted financial
environment




        2009 Profiles of Success
                                  29
Emerging Economic Factors
   Customer retention key to revenue sustainability

                                    Attrition Rates

           Lifetime                                         38.20%




               TSI                                              39.60%




Profiles of Success                           30.60%


                  15.00%   21.25%            27.50%    33.75%        40.00%




                                        30
Emerging Economic Factors
What are customers telling us ?
                            24% Left the Industry
       50,000

                   46,668                                 45,570
       37,500


       25,000


       12,500
                                   10,268
            0
                                             -11,386
      -12,500


      -25,000
                  Total 2007      New 2008   Left 2008   Total 2008



     2009 Health Club Consumer Report
                                        31
Michael Silverstein
Treasure Hunt - Market “Bifurcation”

                      “I have seen that
                      consumers will always
                      trade down and buy the
                      cheapest product in a
                      category if suppliers fail
                      to deliver a stream of
                      innovation and build
                      loyalty based on product
                      superiority.”

                         32
#2 Prevalent Business Models & Trends
                                   33
2    Prevalent Business
     Models & Trends

 •Growth Scenario

 •Core Economics

 •Competitive Landscape

 •Emerging Segments




34
Business Models & Trends - Growth Scenario
US facilities - rapid growth since early 90’s




                          35
Business Models & Trends - Growth Scenario
Facility growth has slowed




     2009 Profiles of Success   36
Business Models & Trends - Growth Scenario
Growth mostly in top MSA’s & Sun Belt - Regional




                         37
Business Models & Trends - Core Economics
Average membership dues flat since 1980



                                         Today = $49.95
                                    1980 = About $40.00




     2009 Profiles of Success   38
Business Models & Trends - Core Economics
Average membership dues fairly flat since 1980


 Car Today = $28,400 | Car 1980 = $7,210




                         39
Business Models & Trends - Core Economics
Development & operating costs nearly quadrupled
since 1980




                        40
Business Models & Trends - Core Economics
ROI in the “average” model under pressure

           What drives growth in any industry are ROI’s
             that sustain growth and attract capital




       The “average” is feeling most pressure
         this is driving “bifurcation trend”

                              41
Business Models & Trends - Core Economics
Economics has driven discounting for certain brands




capacity strategy
                          42
Business Models and Trends - Competitive Landscape
 Face Off of Top 100 Clubs - Club Industry - July 2010

                http://clubindustry.com/
            forprofits/top-100-health-clubs/
                       index.html




Club Industry July 2010
By Editor Pamela Kufahl    43
Business Models and Trends - Competitive Landscape
  Prevalent Business Models & Trends

 1                           $1.4 Billion        4   $812 Million




 2                           $1.0 Billion        5   $485 Million




 3                           $837 Million        6   $344 Million

Club Industry July 2010 By
Editor Pamela Kufahl                        44
Business Models and Trends - Competitive Landscape
  Prevalent Business Models & Trends

 7                           $134 Million




 8                           $130 Million




 9                           $110 Million


Club Industry July 2010 By
Editor Pamela Kufahl                        45
Business Models and Trends - Competitive Landscape
 Bifurcation of the market - Ray Algar Model




http://www.oxygen-consulting.co.uk/
                                      46
Prevalent Business Models & Trends - Emerging
 Ray Algar - UK Budget Market




http://www.oxygen-consulting.co.uk/
                                      47
Business Models and Trends - Competitive Landscape
 Bifurcation of the market - Ray Algar Model




http://www.oxygen-consulting.co.uk/
                                      48
Prevalent Business Models & Trends - Emerging
Budget competitors emerging




                         49
Prevalent Business Models & Trends - Emerging
New niche trends - engaging personal experience




 “drop-in” fees                       unlimited $89 -
   $17 - $40                           $140 month



                         50
Prevalent Business Models & Trends - Emerging
Hospitality brands reflect market bifurcation




                         51
Prevalent Business Models & Trends - Emerging
http://futureoffitnesswhitepaper.ning.com/




                                            52
Prevalent Business Models & Trends - Emerging
On line retail continues surge - fitness models follow
"People are just shifting their dollars to the
Web," said Sucharita Mulpuru, vice president and
principal analyst for Forrester Research  Inc.
Online retail sales will grow 10% a year for the
next five years, accounting for 53% of all U.S.
retail sales by 2014, according to Forrester
Research.




                                                   53
Prevalent Business Models & Trends
 Wellness Model - potential to dwarf extant fitness


•Huge $2.7 Trillion Opportunity
•Health care spending is
unsustainable.

•Prevention as a strategic position
for employers and ultimately
governments is inevitable.

•Key is outcomes and integration.

                                      54
Prevalent Business Models & Trends
Growth - new emerging niches and models




        requiring new ways of doing things....

                         55
Recap Of Trends
             56
Recap Of Trends
Consumers:
•Value perception is key barrier to increased membership
•Most affluent & educated have greatest penetration levels
•Low user cluster is largest segment - they are least affluent & least engaged
•Consumers increasingly trading up and down
•Consumers are becoming accustomed to digital delivery
•Advertising is distrusted by most consumers
•Wellness is growing need
Business models:
•Several large well financed competitors continue expansion
•Over 20% of market controlled by 9 key players nationally
•Top 30 MSA’s are key expansion markets - regions vary
•Discounting widely being applied in market
•Average ROI pressure - prices stagnant while costs increase
•Market is “bifurcating” moving upward and downward along value scale
•Emergence of budget model, hi-end and medical niches
•Technologies providing increasing options
•Requiring existing players to do new and different things to compete



                                                                            57
What are your going
 to do about it ?
                        #3 Evaluating Your
 Competitive Position - Think Strategically
                                         58
3    Evaluating Your
     Competitive Position

•SWOT

•Internal - capabilities and
 resources

•External - market
 opportunities and threats



59
Evaluating Your Competitive Position
Conduct a SWOT analysis of your club business

                              Internal Review:

                              •Current position
                              •KPI’S - member execution
                              •What is your niche?
                              •What is your technology
                              platform ?

                              •How are you marketing ?

                         60
Evaluating Your Competitive Position - Internal SWOT
What is your niche ? Where are you positioned now ?

                                 •Price
                                 •Features
                                 •Competitive abilities
                                 •Wellness Option




                         61
Evaluating Your Competitive Position - Internal SWOT
Compare numbers to industry figures - benchmark




     2009 Profiles of Success
                               62
Evaluating Your Competitive Position - Internal SWOT
What is your technology platform ? customer focus !


                                    Technology Platform:

                                    •CRM or just billing ?
                                    •Cloud based ?
                                    •Web site integrated ?
                                    •Mobility ?


     2009 Profiles of Success
                               63
Evaluating Your Competitive Position - Internal SWOT
How do you market ? Social media !


                                    The “NEW” Marketing:

                                    •Social media strategy ?
                                    •What is your spend ?
                                    •Campaign effectiveness ?



     2009 Profiles of Success
                               64
Evaluating Your Competitive Position
Conduct a SWOT analysis of your club business


                              External Review:

                              •Calculate Demand
                              •Calculate Supply
                              •Evaluate Pricing
                              •Review Existing Members



                         65
Evaluating Your Competitive Position - External SWOT
  Determine Demand - www.sitereports.com




Eliminate your “gut” - quantify !
                                    66
Evaluating Your Competitive Position - External SWOT
 Drive time psychographics - www.sitereports.com




Forget “radius” use drive time !
                                   67
Evaluating Your Competitive Position - External SWOT
Market assessment drive time - www.sitereports.com



                                Drive Times

                                Run 10 minutes
                                Might want to adjust




                         68
Evaluating Your Competitive Position - External SWOT
By utilizing PRIZM you can better estimate demand




                         69
Evaluating Your Competitive Position - External SWOT
  Estimate Market Demand - Use IHRSA research !

                                Fictional Trade Area
                                Households
                                                                                                        Estimated
                                Urban                       % of HH National % IHRSA % 2009 Households HH Demand
                                U1 - Urban Uptown             6.81%      8.30%    25.10%          7,000       1,757
                                U2 - Midtown Mix             21.37%      4.33%    16.90%          5,000         845
                                U3 - Urban Cores             25.46%      4.96%     7.10%          3,000         213
                                Total Urbans                 53.64%      4.96%    17.40%         15,000       2,610

                                2nd City
Use the IHRSA 2009 Consumer     C1 - 2nd City Society         6.24%     4.63%    30.10%          15,000       4,515
                                C2 - 2nd City Centers         7.04%     7.85%    11.70%           7,000         819
Report to calculate estimated   C3 - Micro City Blues         4.16%     6.64%     9.00%           3,000         270
demand                          Total Second City            17.44%    19.12%    15.59%          25,000       3,898

                                Suburbs
This provides you a good        S1 - Elites                   2.60%     5.21%    41.70%           8,000       3,336
estimate for your market        S2 - Affluentials
                                S3 - Middleburbs
                                                              6.86%     7.71%    23.20%           7,000       1,624
                                                              7.23%     6.15%    20.70%           4,000         828
potential                       S4 - Inner Suburbs           12.21%     4.53%     8.50%           2,000         170
                                Total Suburbs                28.90%    23.60%    32.76%          21,000       6,880

                                Total Estimated Market                                                       13,387




                                                       70
Evaluating Your Competitive Position - External SWOT
Estimate Market Supply - Under-serviced ? Change ?
                                                                 Shop the Competition
                                                                        Web Research
                                                                Estimate Memberships
                                                                     Evaluate Offering

                                                                Demand = 13,387
                                                                  Supply = 5,075
                                                            GROWTH POTENTIAL !

 Brand                     Location   Estimated HH       Percentage of   Adjusted Trade    Estimated
                                                             Trade                           Share
 24 Hour            ABC Drive                    2,645            50.00%           1,323        26.06%
 Anytime            Sierra Lane                    820            75.00%             615        12.12%
 Anytime            Veterans Blvd                  735            50.00%             368         7.24%
 Snap Fitness       Jone Road                      640            50.00%             320         6.31%
 Bally’s            Laredo Ave                   1,300            50.00%             650        12.81%
 Jane’s PT Studio   MPT                            300           100.00%             300         5.91%
 Your Club          Your Club                    1,500           100.00%           1,500        29.56%
 Total              Total                                                          5,075



                                            71
Evaluating Your Competitive Position - Internal SWOT
Who are your existing members ? PRIZM
                 Membership Mix by Psychographic Segments
                                        by uploading household addresses

    U! Urban Uptown                                 170

     U2 Midtown Mix               80

     U3 Urban Cores               75

     S! Elite Suburbs                                                              497

       S2 Affluentials                                         249

      S3 Middleburbs                   107

    S4 Inner Suburbs                   104

      C1 Second City                                                         397

      C2 City Centers                        127

  C3 Micro-City Blues        25

   T1 Landed Gentry               80

  T2 Country Comfort 12

   T3 Middle America     8

     T4 Rustic Living 6
                         0                    125                250       375       500



          2009 Profiles of Success
                                                          72
Evaluating Your Competitive Position - Internal SWOT
Who are your existing members ? PRIZM
      Membership Gains & Losses by Psychographic Segments
                                      by uploading household addresses

  U! Urban Uptown
   U2 Midtown Mix
   U3 Urban Cores
   S! Elite Suburbs
     S2 Affluentials
    S3 Middleburbs
  S4 Inner Suburbs
    C1 Second City
    C2 City Centers
C3 Micro-City Blues
 T1 Landed Gentry
T2 Country Comfort
 T3 Middle America
   T4 Rustic Living
                   -15.00%      -11.25%        -7.50%        -3.75%      0%   3.75%   7.50%




            2009 Profiles of Success
                                                        73
#4 Plan & Take Action
                  74
4    Plan Your Course
     of Action



•Develop Your Plan

•Resource & Execute




75
Plan Your Course of Action
SWOT gives many answers
                                 If you decide to
                              reposition doing it and
    SWOT Delivers This        executing it is hardest




                         76
Plan Your Course of Action - Where do you want to be ?
What must you add or take away ? Analyze ROI
                                  •Proforma
                                  •Capital
                                  •Realignment
                                  •Expertise




                          77
Plan Your Course of Action
R=G - Prahalad - Use global resources




                                 There are a large number of
                              experts, products, services and
                              solutions from vendors able to
                                          support and advise
                                you on your fitness business.

                                    “Executives are constrained not by
                                   resources, but by their imagination.”
                                                   -CK Prahalad, Ph.D.


                         78
Plan Your Course of Action
Seek guidance from experienced professionals




                         79
Recap - What to Do About The Changing Market
Evaluate Your Competitive Position:
•Use SWOT approach
•Use IHRSA, RMA, FDD, SEC and other resources to benchmark
•Evaluate your current market offering including pricing, features, service
•Assess your technology platform - customer facing & integrated
•Assess marketing practices - spend, return and the “new” methods
•Calculate market demand in trade area using IHRSA and PRIZM
•Calculate market supply in trade area
•Evaluate current base of membership and changes
•Think strategically
Plan & Act:
•SWOT generates road map
•Conduct in-depth proforma analysis
•Prioritize actions - do nothing or reposition
•SEEK HELP - IHRSA, global vendor pool, expertise
•Implement and execute




                                                                              80
In Closing - Our Industry Holds Great Promise

     “Without change there is no innovation,
  creativity, or incentive for improvement. Those
      who initiate change will have a better
    opportunity to manage the change that is
                      inevitable.”
                   C. William Pollard



 ““Learning and innovation go hand in hand. The
  arrogance of success is to think that what you
  did yesterday will be sufficient for tomorrow.””
                C. William Pollard




                                                    81
Thank You

 Bryan K. O’Rourke, MBA
   Bryankorourke@me.com
   www.bryankorourke.com




            82
83

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How the fitness industry is changing and what to do about it

  • 1. becoming more competitive how the fitness industry is changing and what to do about it 1
  • 2. Bryan K. O’Rourke, MBA Bryankorourke@me.com - Fitness Professional & Club Owner connect with me @ Strategist, technologist, entrepreneur and club owner with thirty years of proven results in a wide range of roles and industries. His background includes serving as CFO of Al Copeland Investments former owner of Popeye’s Fried Chicken and Church’s Fried Chicken brands; CFO and shareholder of Smoothie King Franchises; and CEO of Applied Realtime Systems, a technology innovation company, among other roles where he has help build national and global brands. Bryan advises governmental agencies, non-profits and for-profits both domestically and internationally and is active in the Mary Bird Perkins Cancer Foundation. He serves as the Medical Fitness Association’s education committee chairperson and is an author & speaker. His education includes a BS in Finance from the University of New Orleans, an MBA from SELU and received the Crescent City Scholarship for the pursuit of a Ph.D. in Financial Economics. He has focused on fitness and wellness during past 12 years and is a shareholder and executive in The Health Club for Women, Fitmarc, Integerus, and the Flywheel group.. 2
  • 3. change across all industries How is the Fitness the fitness industry is no exception change is not just cyclical its also fundamental Industry is Changing ? 3
  • 4. <3> demography technology globalism many industries experiencing change 4
  • 5. Check Out This DVD For More Information on Technology’s Impact technology 5
  • 6. demography globalism 6
  • 7. Today : How the Fitness Industry is Changing 1.U.S. Fitness Facility Marketplace Overview 2.Prevalent Business Models & Trends 7
  • 8. in response to rapid change What Should You industries are reinventing and innovating creating new opportunities Do About It ? 8
  • 9. ...and What to Do About It 3.Evaluating Your Competitive Position 4.Planning A Course of Action 9
  • 10. #1 U.S. Fitness Facility Overview 10
  • 11. 1 U.S. Fitness Facility Market Overview •Emerging Consumer Factors •Emerging Economic Factors 11
  • 12. Emerging Consumer Factors Health club consumer & PRIZM profiles In 2009 IHRSA’s completed a nationwide survey of U.S. households. A total of 15,013 individual and 26,487 household surveys were completed to create reliable profiles of members including PRIZM segmentation. PRIZM means “Potential Rating Index for Zip Marketers” 2009 Health Club Consumer Report 12
  • 13. Emerging Consumer Factors Health club consumer & PRIZM profiles Report Includes: •Trends in Club Membership •Attendance •Activity Participation •Member Profiles •Typical Consumers •Profiles By Club •Profiles By Activity •Club Fees •Cluster Analysis •PRIZM Profiles 2009 Health Club Consumer Report 13
  • 14. Emerging Consumer Factors Health club consumer & PRIZM profiles •PRIZM is a geodemographic profiling system developed by Claritas. Each PRIZM divides the U.S. consumer into 14 different groups and 66 different segments. As the classification is household based, we can compare different areas according to the likelihood of joining a health club. For example, the highest indexed PRIZM segment is “Blue Blood Estates,” so we can target “Blue Blood Estates” households within the health club’s immediate vicinity to recruit likely members. •PRIZM analysis is more valuable than generic demographic data and provides more meaningful insights into membership profiles. 14
  • 15. Emerging Consumer Factors Health club consumer & PRIZM profiles 15
  • 16. Emerging Consumer Factors Health club consumer PRIZM profiles 2009 Health Club Consumer Report 16
  • 17. Emerging Consumer Factors Share of Current US Health Club Market Urban Uptown Elite Suburbs Affluentials 33% 11% Landed Gentry Country Comfort Middleburbs 13% All Eight Others 7% 10% 6 of 14 Segments 11% 14% Represent 67% of the Market 2009 Health Club Consumer Report 17
  • 18. Emerging Consumer Factors Share of current US health club market Penetration Rates = 17% Overall 50.00% 41.70% Combined 6 of 14 Segments 37.50% Represent 67% of the Market 25.00% 25.10% 25.50% 23.20% 20.70% 16.40% 12.50% 10.77% 0% Urban Uptown Elite Suburbs Affluentials Landed Gentry Country Comfort Middleburbs All Eight Others moving this would have big impact 2009 Health Club Consumer Report 18
  • 19. Emerging Consumer Factors HH “Upper Income” & education key drivers 2009 Health Club Consumer Report 19
  • 20. Emerging Consumer Factors “Price” is main objection or “perception of value” Too expensive 61 Exercise elsewhere 52 Feel out of place 18 No available club 13 Don't exercise 16 Too crowded 12 Don’t know anybody 12 0 17.5 35.0 52.5 70.0 2009 Health Club Consumer Report 20
  • 21. Emerging Consumer Factors - Existing Customers Report ID’s 5 key clusters Predominantly Male: Focus on strength & resistance - 84% Male Mixed Low Use: 59% use club less than 1 time a week - Less affluent 25% non-members - Even male female mix Predominantly 50+: Slightly more female - most affluent - 60% over 50 years of age Super Avid Hi Spend User: 67% female - Highest participation especially group exercise Female Low Spend: 80% female - 67% participate in group exercise 2009 Health Club Consumer Report 21
  • 22. Emerging Economic Factors Mixed low usage largest market share of members 11% 18% Male Strength 7% Mixed Low Usage 50+ Group 22% Super Avid High Spend Female Low Spend 42% largest group of existing consumers least affluent and least participative 2009 Profiles of Success 22
  • 23. Emerging Consumer Factors - Michael Silverstein Treasure Hunt - Inside the Mind of the New Consumer Compa nies will thrive , Silverstein a rgues, by catering to the penny- pinching impulses of consumers, or by "spanning the poles" and appealing to both the high and low ends while avoiding anything else- there's only "death in the middle." 23
  • 24. Emerging Consumer Factors - Michael Silverstein Treasure Hunt - Inside the Mind of the New Consumer The “New Consumer” Seen in All Industries. Important to Understand “Value” 24
  • 25. Emerging Consumer Factors Alternative fitness options - digital technologies Consumers are getting accustomed to the “long tail” affect - anytime, anyplace, anywhere. Estimate 2 million in US utilize some type. 25
  • 26. Emerging Consumer Factors Prevention - monetizing the wellness The emerging health care mess is creating new customer needs to reduce costs of traditional care via prevention 26
  • 27. Emerging Consumer Factors Consumer’s don’t trust advertising The Days of Traditional “Sales” and “Marketing” in Health Clubs is Coming to An End 27
  • 28. Trends - Emerging Economic Factors Profiles of Success 2009 2009 Profiles of Success 28
  • 29. Emerging Economic Factors National growth has stalled for several years now 2009 Stagnant As Well 2009 $19.9 Billion 2009 45.3 Million Members 2008 $19.1 Billion 2008 45.5 Million Members Related to economic factors Limited supply increase Restricted financial environment 2009 Profiles of Success 29
  • 30. Emerging Economic Factors Customer retention key to revenue sustainability Attrition Rates Lifetime 38.20% TSI 39.60% Profiles of Success 30.60% 15.00% 21.25% 27.50% 33.75% 40.00% 30
  • 31. Emerging Economic Factors What are customers telling us ? 24% Left the Industry 50,000 46,668 45,570 37,500 25,000 12,500 10,268 0 -11,386 -12,500 -25,000 Total 2007 New 2008 Left 2008 Total 2008 2009 Health Club Consumer Report 31
  • 32. Michael Silverstein Treasure Hunt - Market “Bifurcation” “I have seen that consumers will always trade down and buy the cheapest product in a category if suppliers fail to deliver a stream of innovation and build loyalty based on product superiority.” 32
  • 33. #2 Prevalent Business Models & Trends 33
  • 34. 2 Prevalent Business Models & Trends •Growth Scenario •Core Economics •Competitive Landscape •Emerging Segments 34
  • 35. Business Models & Trends - Growth Scenario US facilities - rapid growth since early 90’s 35
  • 36. Business Models & Trends - Growth Scenario Facility growth has slowed 2009 Profiles of Success 36
  • 37. Business Models & Trends - Growth Scenario Growth mostly in top MSA’s & Sun Belt - Regional 37
  • 38. Business Models & Trends - Core Economics Average membership dues flat since 1980 Today = $49.95 1980 = About $40.00 2009 Profiles of Success 38
  • 39. Business Models & Trends - Core Economics Average membership dues fairly flat since 1980 Car Today = $28,400 | Car 1980 = $7,210 39
  • 40. Business Models & Trends - Core Economics Development & operating costs nearly quadrupled since 1980 40
  • 41. Business Models & Trends - Core Economics ROI in the “average” model under pressure What drives growth in any industry are ROI’s that sustain growth and attract capital The “average” is feeling most pressure this is driving “bifurcation trend” 41
  • 42. Business Models & Trends - Core Economics Economics has driven discounting for certain brands capacity strategy 42
  • 43. Business Models and Trends - Competitive Landscape Face Off of Top 100 Clubs - Club Industry - July 2010 http://clubindustry.com/ forprofits/top-100-health-clubs/ index.html Club Industry July 2010 By Editor Pamela Kufahl 43
  • 44. Business Models and Trends - Competitive Landscape Prevalent Business Models & Trends 1 $1.4 Billion 4 $812 Million 2 $1.0 Billion 5 $485 Million 3 $837 Million 6 $344 Million Club Industry July 2010 By Editor Pamela Kufahl 44
  • 45. Business Models and Trends - Competitive Landscape Prevalent Business Models & Trends 7 $134 Million 8 $130 Million 9 $110 Million Club Industry July 2010 By Editor Pamela Kufahl 45
  • 46. Business Models and Trends - Competitive Landscape Bifurcation of the market - Ray Algar Model http://www.oxygen-consulting.co.uk/ 46
  • 47. Prevalent Business Models & Trends - Emerging Ray Algar - UK Budget Market http://www.oxygen-consulting.co.uk/ 47
  • 48. Business Models and Trends - Competitive Landscape Bifurcation of the market - Ray Algar Model http://www.oxygen-consulting.co.uk/ 48
  • 49. Prevalent Business Models & Trends - Emerging Budget competitors emerging 49
  • 50. Prevalent Business Models & Trends - Emerging New niche trends - engaging personal experience “drop-in” fees unlimited $89 - $17 - $40 $140 month 50
  • 51. Prevalent Business Models & Trends - Emerging Hospitality brands reflect market bifurcation 51
  • 52. Prevalent Business Models & Trends - Emerging http://futureoffitnesswhitepaper.ning.com/ 52
  • 53. Prevalent Business Models & Trends - Emerging On line retail continues surge - fitness models follow "People are just shifting their dollars to the Web," said Sucharita Mulpuru, vice president and principal analyst for Forrester Research  Inc. Online retail sales will grow 10% a year for the next five years, accounting for 53% of all U.S. retail sales by 2014, according to Forrester Research. 53
  • 54. Prevalent Business Models & Trends Wellness Model - potential to dwarf extant fitness •Huge $2.7 Trillion Opportunity •Health care spending is unsustainable. •Prevention as a strategic position for employers and ultimately governments is inevitable. •Key is outcomes and integration. 54
  • 55. Prevalent Business Models & Trends Growth - new emerging niches and models requiring new ways of doing things.... 55
  • 57. Recap Of Trends Consumers: •Value perception is key barrier to increased membership •Most affluent & educated have greatest penetration levels •Low user cluster is largest segment - they are least affluent & least engaged •Consumers increasingly trading up and down •Consumers are becoming accustomed to digital delivery •Advertising is distrusted by most consumers •Wellness is growing need Business models: •Several large well financed competitors continue expansion •Over 20% of market controlled by 9 key players nationally •Top 30 MSA’s are key expansion markets - regions vary •Discounting widely being applied in market •Average ROI pressure - prices stagnant while costs increase •Market is “bifurcating” moving upward and downward along value scale •Emergence of budget model, hi-end and medical niches •Technologies providing increasing options •Requiring existing players to do new and different things to compete 57
  • 58. What are your going to do about it ? #3 Evaluating Your Competitive Position - Think Strategically 58
  • 59. 3 Evaluating Your Competitive Position •SWOT •Internal - capabilities and resources •External - market opportunities and threats 59
  • 60. Evaluating Your Competitive Position Conduct a SWOT analysis of your club business Internal Review: •Current position •KPI’S - member execution •What is your niche? •What is your technology platform ? •How are you marketing ? 60
  • 61. Evaluating Your Competitive Position - Internal SWOT What is your niche ? Where are you positioned now ? •Price •Features •Competitive abilities •Wellness Option 61
  • 62. Evaluating Your Competitive Position - Internal SWOT Compare numbers to industry figures - benchmark 2009 Profiles of Success 62
  • 63. Evaluating Your Competitive Position - Internal SWOT What is your technology platform ? customer focus ! Technology Platform: •CRM or just billing ? •Cloud based ? •Web site integrated ? •Mobility ? 2009 Profiles of Success 63
  • 64. Evaluating Your Competitive Position - Internal SWOT How do you market ? Social media ! The “NEW” Marketing: •Social media strategy ? •What is your spend ? •Campaign effectiveness ? 2009 Profiles of Success 64
  • 65. Evaluating Your Competitive Position Conduct a SWOT analysis of your club business External Review: •Calculate Demand •Calculate Supply •Evaluate Pricing •Review Existing Members 65
  • 66. Evaluating Your Competitive Position - External SWOT Determine Demand - www.sitereports.com Eliminate your “gut” - quantify ! 66
  • 67. Evaluating Your Competitive Position - External SWOT Drive time psychographics - www.sitereports.com Forget “radius” use drive time ! 67
  • 68. Evaluating Your Competitive Position - External SWOT Market assessment drive time - www.sitereports.com Drive Times Run 10 minutes Might want to adjust 68
  • 69. Evaluating Your Competitive Position - External SWOT By utilizing PRIZM you can better estimate demand 69
  • 70. Evaluating Your Competitive Position - External SWOT Estimate Market Demand - Use IHRSA research ! Fictional Trade Area Households Estimated Urban % of HH National % IHRSA % 2009 Households HH Demand U1 - Urban Uptown 6.81% 8.30% 25.10% 7,000 1,757 U2 - Midtown Mix 21.37% 4.33% 16.90% 5,000 845 U3 - Urban Cores 25.46% 4.96% 7.10% 3,000 213 Total Urbans 53.64% 4.96% 17.40% 15,000 2,610 2nd City Use the IHRSA 2009 Consumer C1 - 2nd City Society 6.24% 4.63% 30.10% 15,000 4,515 C2 - 2nd City Centers 7.04% 7.85% 11.70% 7,000 819 Report to calculate estimated C3 - Micro City Blues 4.16% 6.64% 9.00% 3,000 270 demand Total Second City 17.44% 19.12% 15.59% 25,000 3,898 Suburbs This provides you a good S1 - Elites 2.60% 5.21% 41.70% 8,000 3,336 estimate for your market S2 - Affluentials S3 - Middleburbs 6.86% 7.71% 23.20% 7,000 1,624 7.23% 6.15% 20.70% 4,000 828 potential S4 - Inner Suburbs 12.21% 4.53% 8.50% 2,000 170 Total Suburbs 28.90% 23.60% 32.76% 21,000 6,880 Total Estimated Market 13,387 70
  • 71. Evaluating Your Competitive Position - External SWOT Estimate Market Supply - Under-serviced ? Change ? Shop the Competition Web Research Estimate Memberships Evaluate Offering Demand = 13,387 Supply = 5,075 GROWTH POTENTIAL ! Brand Location Estimated HH Percentage of Adjusted Trade Estimated Trade Share 24 Hour ABC Drive 2,645 50.00% 1,323 26.06% Anytime Sierra Lane 820 75.00% 615 12.12% Anytime Veterans Blvd 735 50.00% 368 7.24% Snap Fitness Jone Road 640 50.00% 320 6.31% Bally’s Laredo Ave 1,300 50.00% 650 12.81% Jane’s PT Studio MPT 300 100.00% 300 5.91% Your Club Your Club 1,500 100.00% 1,500 29.56% Total Total 5,075 71
  • 72. Evaluating Your Competitive Position - Internal SWOT Who are your existing members ? PRIZM Membership Mix by Psychographic Segments by uploading household addresses U! Urban Uptown 170 U2 Midtown Mix 80 U3 Urban Cores 75 S! Elite Suburbs 497 S2 Affluentials 249 S3 Middleburbs 107 S4 Inner Suburbs 104 C1 Second City 397 C2 City Centers 127 C3 Micro-City Blues 25 T1 Landed Gentry 80 T2 Country Comfort 12 T3 Middle America 8 T4 Rustic Living 6 0 125 250 375 500 2009 Profiles of Success 72
  • 73. Evaluating Your Competitive Position - Internal SWOT Who are your existing members ? PRIZM Membership Gains & Losses by Psychographic Segments by uploading household addresses U! Urban Uptown U2 Midtown Mix U3 Urban Cores S! Elite Suburbs S2 Affluentials S3 Middleburbs S4 Inner Suburbs C1 Second City C2 City Centers C3 Micro-City Blues T1 Landed Gentry T2 Country Comfort T3 Middle America T4 Rustic Living -15.00% -11.25% -7.50% -3.75% 0% 3.75% 7.50% 2009 Profiles of Success 73
  • 74. #4 Plan & Take Action 74
  • 75. 4 Plan Your Course of Action •Develop Your Plan •Resource & Execute 75
  • 76. Plan Your Course of Action SWOT gives many answers If you decide to reposition doing it and SWOT Delivers This executing it is hardest 76
  • 77. Plan Your Course of Action - Where do you want to be ? What must you add or take away ? Analyze ROI •Proforma •Capital •Realignment •Expertise 77
  • 78. Plan Your Course of Action R=G - Prahalad - Use global resources There are a large number of experts, products, services and solutions from vendors able to support and advise you on your fitness business. “Executives are constrained not by resources, but by their imagination.” -CK Prahalad, Ph.D. 78
  • 79. Plan Your Course of Action Seek guidance from experienced professionals 79
  • 80. Recap - What to Do About The Changing Market Evaluate Your Competitive Position: •Use SWOT approach •Use IHRSA, RMA, FDD, SEC and other resources to benchmark •Evaluate your current market offering including pricing, features, service •Assess your technology platform - customer facing & integrated •Assess marketing practices - spend, return and the “new” methods •Calculate market demand in trade area using IHRSA and PRIZM •Calculate market supply in trade area •Evaluate current base of membership and changes •Think strategically Plan & Act: •SWOT generates road map •Conduct in-depth proforma analysis •Prioritize actions - do nothing or reposition •SEEK HELP - IHRSA, global vendor pool, expertise •Implement and execute 80
  • 81. In Closing - Our Industry Holds Great Promise “Without change there is no innovation, creativity, or incentive for improvement. Those who initiate change will have a better opportunity to manage the change that is inevitable.” C. William Pollard ““Learning and innovation go hand in hand. The arrogance of success is to think that what you did yesterday will be sufficient for tomorrow.”” C. William Pollard 81
  • 82. Thank You Bryan K. O’Rourke, MBA Bryankorourke@me.com www.bryankorourke.com 82
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