English summary of an article published in French on Belgian Federal Elections in 2010. My feeling is that it is not outdated.

1. Advertising did not win the elections
(again)

2. Media advertising value 3 times higher
in the Flemish part
€ per vote North € per vote South
1.29
1.06
0.88
0.47 0.44
0.32
2003 2007 2010 2003 2007 2010
Source: CIM-MDB for media value, official results of Federal votes
http://elections2010.belgium.be/fr/cha/results, http://elections2007.belgium.be/fr/cha/results

3. Cause or consequence ?
Late decision is frequent in Flanders
Source: http://politics.indigov.be/files/postelectoraalonderzoek_deel1.pdf

4. Why bother with ad investments ?
Classic in advertising:
Share of Voice
(contacts with the brand communication related to
the total ad contacts in the category)
should equate
Share of Market
(brand value or volume
relative to the total category)
Even better :
Share of Voice (SOV) higher
than Share of Market (SOM) =
validated recipe for further success
(1 more point SOM for every 10 points excess SOV)
Les BINET et Peter FIELD, Marketing in the era of accountability, London, World Advertising Research Center, 2007, p. 44
Peter FIELD « Marketing in a downturn : lessons from the past », Market Leader n°42 Autumn 2008, pp.30-31.

5. The case of the 3 last federal
elections, for the Senate
(= broad vote districts)

6. North 2010: the winner in votes
not the most visible in [media] advertising
Party % votes % media value Media value per vote €
N-VA 31,7 13,3 0,54
CD&V 16,1 16,6 1,33
sp.a 15,3 20,0 1,69
Open Vld 13,3 26,7 2,59
Vlaams Belang 12,3 7,3 0,77
GROEN! 6,3 10,2 2,10
Lijst Dedecker 3,3 5,3 2,11
PVDA+ 1,3 0,1 0,07
LSP 0,2
CAP 0,2
Vote @ BE Senate
Source : http://elections2010.belgium.be/fr/cha/results, CIM MDB

7. North 2007:
Open VLD should have been the winner
Party % votes % media value Media value per vote €
CD&V NVA 31,4 14,0 0,47
Open Vld 20,1 48,7 2,57
Vlaams Belang 19,2 2,0 0,11
sp.a 16,2 22,3 1,46
GROEN! 5,9 5,3 0,96
Lijst Dedecker 5,5 6,1 1,19
PVDA+ 0,8
CAP 0,3
NEE 0,3
Stijn 0,3
Vote @ BE Senate
Source : http://elections2007.belgium.be/fr/cha/results, CIM MDB

8. North 2003:
at that time, N-VA did invest much
Party % votes % media value Media value per vote €
sp.a 24,9 17,1 0,60
Open Vld 24,7 30,8 1,09
CD&V 20,4 26,9 1,15
Vlaams Belang 18,2 1,1 0,05
N-VA 4,9 14,0 2,50
GROEN! 4,0 10,1 2,24
LSP 0,2
Lijst Dedecker 0
PVDA+
Vote @ BE Senate
Source : http://elections2007.belgium.be/fr/cha/results, CIM MDB

9. Another source confirms N-VA votes in 2010
were the « most cost-effective »
€ per vote 2010 *
N-VA 0.70
SP.A 1.87
Groen! 1.87
Vlaams Belang 2.06
* Sum of all votes (Chamber+Senate) CD&V 2.26
to total expenses
Source: LDD 2.58
http://static.tijd.be/upload/nota_Maddens
_2748288-114497.pdf Open-VLD 2.67
It also confirms Open VLD
as heaviest investor relatively to its voters’ base.

10. South 2010: like in Flanders, no correlation
between media pressure and share of votes
% votes % media value Media value per vote €
PS 35,7 13,4 0,18
MR 24,3 36,4 0,66
Ecolo 14,3 8,7 0,27
CDH 13,5 41,2 1,34
Parti Populaire 4,0 0,2 0,02
WALLONIE D'ABORD 2,5
PTB+ 2,1
R.W.F. 1,6
Front des gauches 1,1
VIVANT 0,6
MSplus 0,2
Vote @ BE Senate
Source : http://elections2010.belgium.be/fr/cha/results, CIM MDB

11. South 2007: MR leader in vote
and #2 in « share of voice »
% votes % media value Media value per vote €
MR 32,2 34,5 0,34
PS 26,8 23,2 0,28
CDH 15,5 39,0 0,81
Ecolo 15,2 3,4 0,07
FN 5,9
R.W.F. 1,3
PTB+ 0,8
PC 0,8
FORCE NATIONALE 0,6
CDF 0,5
Vote @ BE Senate
Source : http://elections2007.belgium.be/fr/cha/results, CIM MDB

12. South 2003: PS gets the most votes
compared to its media value
Party % votes % media value Media value per vote €
PS 34,0 24,5 0,34
MR 32,1 37,7 0,55
CDH 14,6 25,6 0,82
Ecolo 8,4 8,1 0,45
FN 5,9
VIVANT 1,5
CDF 1,5 3,6 1,07
R.W.F. 1,1
PTB+ 0,8
Vote @ BE Senate
Source : http://elections2007.belgium.be/fr/cha/results, CIM MDB

13. Too bad !
No correlation between SOV and SOM
in politics…

14. Advertising more effective
in low involvement makets
where repetition is key
Politics is normally a high involvement universe
with selective perception
or perceptive defense
to diverging opinions
Advertising may only be effective on « late
decision-makers » or low commitment voters
Jean-Noël KAPFERER Les chemins de la Persuasion. Le mode d’influence des media et de la publicité sur les comportements, Paris
Dunod, coll. « Dunod Entreprise », 1986, p. 340 (ao)

15. Low sync between media used/allowed
for advertising for parties
and media that influence people’s votes
Media used for paid
advertising: mainly print except
Vlaams Belang (Outdoor 45% of
Main sources for opinion value) and CDH (18% Web)
making: Free local
news bulletins, debates, political press Outdoor
programmes… Internet 6% 5%
1%
Mainly audio-visual media
Magazines
Print ranked lower 12%
Source :
http://www.indigov.be/attachments/1279094718682/mail.html Newspapers
76%
Source : CIM MDB 2010. National

16. Although not salient in paid media,
some parties *did attract large audiences
* at least one of them….

17. Visibility on the Internet
Monthly visitors Website
90
80
70
60
Total « visitors » on n-va.be 50
reached 80 k during the last 40
elections month. 30
Only website of a political 20
party to reach the Comscore 10
publication threshold at that 0
Nov-2009
May-2010
Mar-2010
Sep-2009
Jul-2010
Jul-2009
Dec-2009
Feb-2010
Jun-2009
Aug-2009
Oct-2009
Apr-2010
Jun-2010
Jan-2010
time !
Comscore = user centric panel also on Belgium.
Reported sample size = 10,000 people

18. Frequency of search queries

19. Frequency of search queries:
party or celebrity ?

20. Media after all…
If media did help win the federal elections
It is definitely not advertising in the media
Because winners were not the heaviest investors
(as in 2003 and 2007)
N-VA (and PS ?) probably did stand
out in the relevant media and at the
right moments
… but not only paid media advertising

21. Media after all…
So maybe the « good old » share of voice/share of market
ratio actually applies…
… but see it as a share of voice in all media:
maybe the paid-for ones, but definitely also your own
contact points (Website, Facebook pages,…) and the
earned media [editorial]

22. As a conclusion
Like it or not, paid media advertising only does not win the
elections
Media definitely matter, but as a broad aggregate of
editorial (earned), owned souding boards and probably
conversation. In this respect, the best possible role of paid
media advertising is accelerating the process.

23. More [in French]:
"La publicité n'a -de nouveau- pas gagné les élections" in Médiatiques n°47
UCL- Observatoire du Récit Médiatique December 2010