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2016 Personal Finance
Year in Review
https://learn.extension.org/events/2815
This material is based upon work supported by the National Institute of Food and Agriculture, U.S. Department of Agriculture, and the Office of Family
Readiness Policy, U.S. Department of Defense under Award Numbers 2010-48869-20685, 2012-48755-20306, and 2014-48770-22587.
Barbara O’Neill, Ph.D., CFP®, Rutgers Cooperative Extension
oneill@aesop.rutgers.edu
An Eclectic Collection of
Personal Finance Topics
This webinar may be the only in-depth annual
review conducted anywhere of personal
finance related research, events, trends,
legislation, and resources.
Webinar Objectives
Present a 2016 “Financial Year in Review”
• Key findings from 2016 personal finance research studies
• Key findings from 2016 government data
• Key 2016 financial events and trends and products
• Key government legislation/policies affecting personal finances
• New or revised financial education resources in 2016
• Preview of expected 2017 personal finance changes
• Key take-aways of 2016 events for financial practitioners
Q1: What Do You Think
Was the MOST
Significant Personal
Finance Event of 2016?
Key Findings From
2016 Personal
Finance Studies
(Academic)
Propensity to Plan: A Key to
Health and Wealth (3/16)
• Respondents reporting frequent planning behavior
had higher health behavior scores
• Respondents reporting frequent planning behavior
had higher financial behavior scores
• Respondents who had higher health behavior scores
had higher financial behavior scores
https://www.onefpa.org/journal/Pages/MAR16-
Propensity-to-Plan-A-Key-to-Health-and-Wealth.aspx
Retirement Age and
Life Expectancy
• Retiring after age 65 may help people live longer
• Risk of dying (any cause) was 11% lower for a one-
year delay from age 65 to 66
• Risk of dying fell further for people who retired
between age 66 and 72
• Even people who retired for health reasons had
lower risk of dying
• Postponing retirement may delay natural age-related
declines in functioning
http://jech.bmj.com/content/early/2016/03/21/jech-2015-
207097.short?g=w_jech_ahead_tab (Wu et al.)
Home Equity as a Retirement
Income Strategy
• Pfau (4/16) study of use of reverse mortgages to
supplement portfolio withdrawals
• Opening line of credit at start of retirement and then
delaying its use until the portfolio is depleted
creates the most downside protection
• Key take-aways:
– Open RM line of credit at earliest possible age and leave
it unused as long as possible
– Lenders or government could eliminate this strategy
– RMs are not just something to use as a last resort
https://www.onefpa.org/journal/Pages/APR16-Incorporating-Home-Equity-
into-a-Retirement-Income-Strategy.aspx
Retirement Portfolio Math
• Isrealsen (1/16): A portfolio of 65% stocks and 35%
bonds/cash has historically had a 98% chance of
lasting 35 years
– Assumes a 4% withdrawal rate and a 3% COLA increase
• Retirees with portfolio balances equal to 12 times
their final working year salary can replace 60% of
their wages with a 5% withdrawal rate
http://www.aaii.com/journal/article/the-mathematics-
of-retirement-portfolios
“Safe” Retirement Spending
• “Feel Free” Retirement Spending Strategy (4/16):
Spending level where you have little worry about
depleting savings
• Person’s age ÷ 20
• Age 60: 60 ÷20 = 3% of savings
• Age 70: 70 ÷ 20 = 3.5% of savings
• Age 80: 80 ÷ 20 = 4% of savings
http://www.investmentnews.com/article/20160622/FR
EE/160629965/this-simple-retirement-spending-
strategy-takes-on-the-4-rule
Retirement Spending
“Guardrails”
• Klinger (2016) studied retirement portfolio “failures”
(i.e., running out of money)
• Asset returns alone were not a good early warning
sign of failure
• Withdrawal rate ratio was a good indicator of future
portfolio failure
• Applying a guardrail to a retirement strategy could
help ensure a financially successful retirement
https://www.onefpa.org/journal/Pages/OCT16-Guardrails-to-
Prevent-Potential-Retirement-Portfolio-Failure.aspx
Personal Traits of Savers
• Age- Willingness to save decreases until age 60 and flattens
• Economic Hardship in Early Life- Increases savings
• Savings Behavior in Youth- Increases savings
• Interest in Financial News- Increases savings
• Household Administration- Running a “tight” household
• A Sense of Control- More willing to set aside money now for
future spending
• Optimism Regarding the Economy- More willing to
postpone current consumption
http://www.aaii.com/journal/article/what-personal-traits-do-
savers-share.mobile
Impulsiveness and Saving
• Research by Newcomb (7/16)
• When people focus on the future, they tend to be
less impulsive, regardless of their level of financial
literacy
• High levels of impulsiveness and materialism were
associated with poor financial decision-making
• The strongest predictor of good financial decisions
was not financial literacy but focus on the future
http://www.apa.org/news/press/releases/2016/08/save-money.aspx
Key Findings From
2016 Personal
Finance Studies
(Non-Academic)
“4% Rule” Withdrawal or
Annuities?
• TIAA Institute Study (5/16): compared systematic
withdrawals to annuitizing
• Conclusion: Do both!
– Put half of savings into variable annuity
– Get additional income from withdrawals from stock and
bond portfolio
• Combination approach provided the best mixture
of both income and ending wealth
https://www.tiaainstitute.org/public/institute/research/lifetime-
income/achieving-retirement-income-security
2016 EBRI Retirement
Confidence Survey (RCS)
• 69% of workers (or their spouse) had saved for
retirement
• Considerable gap between workers’ expectations
and retirees’ experience about leaving workforce
• 48% of workers (or spouse) had calculated
retirement savings need
• 54% of workers had < $25,000 saved (excluding
value of home and DB pension)
– Includes 26% who have < $1,000
https://www.ebri.org/pdf/surveys/rcs/2016/EBRI_IB_422.Mar16.RCS.pdf
Millennial Retirement Planning
• AICPA Study (3/16): Millennials have 2 major
obstacles to saving for retirement
– Student loan debt
– Pessimism and scars from the 2008 financial crisis
• Only half had started to save for retirement
• Half fear losing their savings in retirement
• Reassure millennials that time is on their side
– Time to invest
– Time diversification
https://www.aicpa.org/press/pressreleases/2016/pages/saving-
is-a-top-priority-for-millennials.aspx
Journal of Financial Planning, September 2016, p. 14.
America Saves Week Survey
• 2016 survey: 49% of 1,004 respondents save at
least 5% of income
• 43% save automatically outside of work
• 40% report good or excellent progress in “meeting
their savings needs”
• Those with “a savings plan with specific goals” save
more successfully than those without a plan
http://www.americasavesweek.org/less-than-half-of-u-
s-households-report-good-savings-progress-
according-to-9th-annual-america-saves-week-survey/
Financial Fragility
Associated Press poll (5/16)
• 75% of people in households making <$50,000/year
would have difficulty coming up with $1,000 to cover
an unexpected bill
• 67% of people in households making $50,000 to
$100,000/year would have difficulty
• 38% of people in households making >$100,000/year
would have difficulty
http://bigstory.ap.org/article/965e48ed609245539ed315
f83e01b6a2
Cost of Child Care
New America study (9/16)
• Full-time care in a center for a child age 4 or under
costs > average in-state college tuition
– Child care center: $9,589
– Average college tuition: $9,410
• One-fifth of families use a “patchwork” approach
http://www.fa-mag.com/news/finding-good--affordable-
childcare-tough-in-any-u-s--state-29212.html
http://www.wsj.com/articles/soaring-child-care-costs-
squeeze-families-1467415411
FINRAIEF National Financial
Capability Study (NFCS)
• 2015 findings released in Summer 2016
• Continuation of some positive trends in 2015 from
2012 study (e.g., less difficulty paying bills)
• Percentage of Americans with health insurance
increased from 78% in 2012 to 87% in 2015
• 34% of 27,564 respondents probably or certainly
could not come up with $2,000 for unexpected needs
• Half of respondents do not have an emergency fund
of three months expenses
http://www.usfinancialcapability.org/downloads/NFCS_2015_Report_Natl_Findings.pdf
Identity Theft Aftermath
• Identity Theft Resource Center report: Identity Theft”
The Aftermath 2016
• 150 million Social Security numbers exposed in
breaches in 2015
• Takeovers of credit cards down (due to chips?) but
new account fraud and unauthorized use of debit
cards, bank accounts, and PayPal increased
• Nearly half of tax fraud victims were forced to borrow
money or apply for government assistance when
they did not receive refunds
http://www.idtheftcenter.org/images/page-docs/AftermathFinal_2016.pdf
Key Findings From
2015 Government
Data
Spending Patterns of
Older Adults
• U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Study (3/16):
Spending patterns do not change significantly in
many categories until a person reaches age 75
• Spending drops significantly after age 75
• Clothing, transportation, entertainment decline
• Health expenditures increased beyond age 64
– $4,958 in age 55-64 group
– $5,956 in age 65-74 group
– $5,708 in age 75+ group
http://www.bls.gov/opub/btn/volume-5/spending-patterns-of-
older-americans.htm
Credit Card Debt
May 2016 Credit Card Debt Statistics:
• Average American household debt: $5,700
– Households with and without revolving balances
• Average for balance-carrying households: $16,048
– Remember, many households are carrying much more
• 38.1% of all households carry some sort of credit
card debt (Census and Federal Reserve data)
https://www.valuepenguin.com/average-credit-card-debt
Baby Boomer Debt
2/16 Federal Reserve Bank of NY data
• Unprecedented debt loads for older Americans
• Average 65-year old borrower has 47% more
mortgage debt and 29% more auto debt than 65-
year olds in 2003
• Student loan debt among 65-year olds is a growing
category
http://www.wsj.com/articles/new-york-fed-finds-large-increase-
in-debts-held-by-those-over-age-50-1455289257
Median Income Increase
9/16 Census Bureau report
• First gain in household income since 2007
• Largest annual gain since Census Bureau began
releasing data in 1967
• Median household income in 2015 was $56,516, up
5.2% ($2,798) from a year earlier after inflation
• 2015 official poverty rate: 13.5% vs. 14.8% in 2014
http://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-household-incomes-
surged-5-2-in-2015-ending-slide-1473776295
Household Net Worth Increase
• Collective record of $89.1 trillion for all U.S.
households (Federal Reserve data)
• Generally driven by strong stock market and rising
home values and increased bank deposits
• More than 3 million households remain underwater
on mortgages
http://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-household-wealth-rises-to-
record-1474042043
“A Tale of Two Americas”
• National averages indicate recovery from the Great
Recession
• National statistics do not reflect the experience of
many people
• Income and assets of upper 10% of households are
skewing data used to measure economic health
• “Hollowing out” of mid-level positions in workforce
http://bigstory.ap.org/article/6594cedbfa2140f3a766862ae7ef13c0/memphis
-and-around-us-economic-averages-miss-big-picture
Financial Fragility
May 2016 Federal Reserve Board study:
• 46% of adults said they either could not cover an
emergency expense costing $400 or would cover it
by selling something or borrowing something
• 31% of non-retired respondents had no retirement
savings or pension
http://www.federalreserve.gov/2015-report-economic-
well-being-us-households-201605.pdf
Upper Middle Class Makes Gains
• Upper middle class is larger and richer than it has
ever been
– 29.4% of population in 2014
– 12.9% of population in 1979
• Study definition: household earnings of $100k to
$350k for family of three
http://www.wsj.com/articles/upper-middle-class-sees-
big-gains-research-finds-1466554177
Q2: Any Other
Interesting 2016
Financial Surveys That
You Remember?
Key 2016 Financial
Events and Trends
and Products
High-Deductible Health
Insurance Plans
• In 2016, FOR THE FIRST TIME EVER, more
than half of workers- 51%- have a deductible
of more than $1,000 for a plan covering a
single person (vs. 46% in 2015)
• In 2017, 84% of large employers will offer
high-deductible plans
– 35% of large employers will offer ONLY high-
deductible plans (Kaiser/HRET survey)
http://www.wsj.com/articles/employers-shift-higher-
health-care-costs-to-workers-1476194147
Pullback on Employer
Workplace Wellness Benefits
• Decline in workplace wellness benefits designed to
cut employee health costs
• Examples include
– Onsite flu shots
– 24-hour nurse hotlines
– Health coaching
– Insurance premium discounts
• Measuring ROI for wellness programs is difficult
http://www.wsj.com/articles/employers-cut-down-on-
wellness-benefits-1466395262
Percentage of Uninsured
Americans at Historic Low
• 2016 Survey: 8.8% of respondents lack health
insurance (versus 16% in 2010)
• Translates to 27.3 million people
• 15.9% of 25 to 34 year olds were uninsured
• 8.1% of 45 to 64 year olds were uninsured
• Around 40% of those under 65 were in a high-
deductible plan (versus 25.3% in 2010)
http://www.wsj.com/articles/percentage-of-uninsured-historically-
low-1473220802
ACA Targeting Young Adults
• Big push to sign up uninsured young adults < age 35
• Using Twitter and Twitch (video game platform)
• Young adults help offset costs of older, sicker people
• Open enrollment: 11/1/16-1/31/17
• < 30% of those with coverage were age 18-34 (2016)
• Concern: Enrollment stagnation could lead more
insurers to drop out
http://www.wsj.com/articles/obama-administration-to-appeal-to-
young-adults-to-sign-up-for-health-insurance-1474984080
ACA Health Plan Choices Shrink
• Kaiser Foundation estimate: There could be just one
option for coverage in 31% of counties in 2017 (vs.
7% of counties in 2016)
• Many insurers are losing money on ACA health
plans
• Humana and Aetna have withdrawn from market
• Remaining insurers seeing sharp premium increases
http://www.wsj.com/articles/health-insurers-pullback-
threatens-to-create-monopolies-1472408338
ACA Tax Penalties
• Called a “shared responsibility payment” by the IRS
– In effect, an extra tax
– Substantially higher than 2014 amount
• Taxpayers owe the GREATER OF a flat assessment or a
percentage of income
• 2016 flat assessment penalty is $695 per adult ($347.50
per child) with a maximum of $2,085 per household
• 2016 percentage of income penalty is 2.5% of household
income, up to national average cost of a Bronze plan
https://www.healthcare.gov/fees/fee-for-not-being-covered/
Decline in Long Term Care
(LTC) Insurance Purchases
• Americans bought 105,000 LTC policies in 2015 (vs.
750,000 in 2000); 3.2 million boomers turned 65
• 70% of people turning 65 in 2016 will need some
type of LTC at some point in their lives
• 8 hours of daily care costs about $44,000
• A year of nursing home care costs $91,000
http://www.fa-mag.com/news/americans-need-long-
term-health-planning---will-they-get-it-29081.html
Older Working Women
• Since 12/07, the share older working women (age
65+) has grown while the percentage of every other
category of U.S. worker- by age and gender has
declined or is flat
• 1 in 7 women work past 65 vs. 1 in 12 in 1992
• Projected to be 1 in 5 women by 2024
• Find job rewarding and/or financial need
http://www.wsj.com/articles/older-women-reshape-u-s-
job-market-1456192536
Oldest Baby Boomers Turned 70
• 2.5 million living baby boomers (of 3.4 million born in
1946) hit the “Big 70” milestone in 2016
• Can expect about 15 more years of life
• Increase in age 70+ people working; will be ¼ of
people age 70 to 74 by 2024
• Beginning of required minimum distributions: first
RMD in 2016 or 2017
• Never before have so many 70-year olds owed
money on their house
http://www.aarp.org/politics-society/history/info-2016/baby-
boomers-turning-70.html
Bank Overdraft Fees
• 1/16 Article:
http://money.cnn.com/2016/01/14/investing/atm-
overdraft-fees/
• Typical overdraft fee is $34
• CFPB Study: majority of overdrafts are made on
transactions of $24 or less
• CFPB Study: If someone borrowed $24 for three
days and paid an overdraft fee of $34, the APR
would be 17,000%
Wells Fargo Scandal
• Wells Fargo fined $185 million for creating fake bank
and credit card accounts.
• Culture of unrealistically high sales targets
• >5,000 employees let go; CEO Stumpf stepped down
• Unwanted credit cards, fake PIN numbers, etc.
• Transfers to fake accounts often triggered overdraft
fees when original account balance ran low
• Take-Away: Check your credit report!
http://money.cnn.com/2016/09/30/pf/fake-bank-
accounts/
ACH Upgrades
• Automated Clearinghouse Network (ACH) for
electronic fund transfers ($42 trillion annually)
• 9/16: Big step toward real-time money movements
• Businesses can hold onto cash until day that
workers get paid instead of a few days later
http://www.wsj.com/articles/same-day-paycheck-
deposits-finally-arrive40-years-later-1474668954
“Quiet Catastrophe” Report
• Smaller % of men age 25-54 are working today than near the
end of the great depression!
• If labor force participation was as high today as 2000, 10
million more Americans would have jobs
• Get by on government benefits and support by others
• Spend 5.5 hours a day watching TV and movies
• Nicholas Eberstadt monograph: Men Without Work: America’s
Invisible Crisis:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/americas-quiet-
catastrophe-millions-of-idle-men/2016/10/05/cd01b750-8a57-
11e6-bff0-d53f592f176e_story.html?utm_term=.ca77bf920858
Millennials Living at Home
• For first time in modern era, living with parents edges
out all other living arrangements for 18- to 34-year-
olds (5/16 Pew Research Center Report)
• Just under a third (32.1%) of millennials live at home
(almost half in NJ)
• Impact on parents’ retirement savings, home
downsizing plans, etc.
http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2016/05/24/for-first-
time-in-modern-era-living-with-parents-edges-out-
other-living-arrangements-for-18-to-34-year-olds/
Student Loan Debt
• Share of borrowers defaulting on student loans has
fallen modestly but remains high
• Just over 11% of 5.2 million students who left school in
FY 2013 have defaulted
– Default = go > 360 days without making a payment after
leaving school
• More students are finding jobs and increased use of
income-driven repayment plans that reduce payments
http://www.wsj.com/articles/fewer-students-are-defaulting-on-
loans-after-leaving-college-1475083308
Free FICO Credit Scores
• 2013- Discover was first major card issuer to give
customers free access to FICO scores
• 2016- Most big banks now provide credit score
access to customers.
• An estimated 100 million Americans now have
access to their credit score
– Through their credit card or bank
• Does not impact credit score because people are
not actively applying for new credit
http://www.usnews.com/news/business/articles/2016-03-09/banks-now-
giving-customers-access-to-credit-scores-for-free
Tax Fraud Scams
• Explosion of fake e-mails and calls purporting to
come from IRS
• Some ask victims to pay a balance tied to the
Affordable Care Act (ACA)
• Some ask for payment with a prepaid debit card
• The IRS never initiates contact by e-mail or phone
http://www.wsj.com/articles/the-new-irs-email-scam-
coming-to-your-inbox-1475143202
Tax ID Theft Cut in Half
• Unprecedented public-private crackdown
• Tax preparation firms and IRS shared information
• Prevented millions of dollars in fraudulent refunds
• Tax identity theft dropped 50% during first nine
months of the year
• More new safeguards planned for 2017
http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2016/11/03/irs-says-
2016-crackdown-helped-slow-identity-theft-tax-refund-
fraud/93234624/
Predatory Installment Loans
• CFPB crackdown on payday loans has led to
increase in predatory installment loans (“filling a void”)
• Installment loans are not in CFPB payday loan
proposals
• Often carry triple digit APRs, but have longer
repayment periods, e.g., 6-12 months
• May be for a few thousand dollars, paid in a series of
installments vs. in a lump sum
• Customers still struggle to repay debt (balance
declines very slowly)
http://www.wsj.com/articles/a-payday-loan-alternative-gains-
ground-1470603307
40th Birthday of First Index Fund
• 9/76- Vanguard 500 Index Fund opened (Jack Bogle)
with $11.3 million on assets
• Today: 20 million investor clients, including many
“Bogleheads”: https://www.bogleheads.org/
• > $3 trillion in passively managed assets
http://www.wsj.com/articles/jack-bogle-the-undisputed-
champion-of-the-long-run-1472855372
https://gcalhoun.files.wordpress.com/2016/09/16-09-01-
wsj-happy-birthday-to-the-index-fund.pdf
U.S. Homeownership Rate
• 7/16 Census Bureau Report- % of U.S. households
that own homes matched lowest level in 51 years
(1965, when the U.S. Census began tracking)
• Just 62.9% of households owned a home
• Peak of 69.2% in 2004
• Reasons include: rising property prices, high rents,
stagnant pay, student loan debt
http://bigstory.ap.org/article/7874336198a5405f8bfaa2673a56d
ffe/us-homeownership-rate-629-percent-matches-51-year-low
New Respectability for
Reverse Mortgages
• Repackaged with 2013 consumer protections
– Homeowners can’t take all of their equity at once
– Protections for non-borrowing spouse (can remain in
home if certain conditions are met)
• Empirical research: No longer just a “last resort”
– Can extend life of savings; line of credit can help portfolio
recover after market downturns
– Can delay taking Social Security benefits until age 70
http://www.wsj.com/articles/new-math-on-reverse-
mortgages-1458525888
Q3: Any Other
Interesting 2016
Financial Events,
Trends, or Products?
Key Government
Legislation and
Policies Affecting
Personal Finances
IRS Waivers on 60-Day Rollover
Deadline for Retirement Plans
• 2016 IRS clarification of acceptable reasons for
waivers of 10% penalty and ordinary income tax
• Reasons include
– Financial institution and postal errors
– Misplaced distribution checks never received
– Severe damage to principal residence
– Death or serious illness in family
– Incarceration of taxpayer
https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-drop/rp-16-47.pdf
DoL Final Fiduciary Rule
“Covered investment advice is defined as a
recommendation to a plan, plan fiduciary, plan
participant and beneficiary or IRA owner for a fee or
other compensation, direct or indirect, as to the
advisability of buying, holding, selling or exchanging
securities or other investment property, including
recommendations as to the investment of securities
or other property after the securities or other
property are rolled over, transferred or distributed
from a plan or IRA”
https://www.dol.gov/agencies/ebsa/about-ebsa/our-activities/resource-
center/fact-sheets/dol-final-rule-to-address-conflicts-of-interest
DoL Fiduciary Rule Implications
• Aimed at eliminating exorbitant fees and commissions
• Financial advisors who provide guidance on
retirement plan assets are required to recommend
what is in the best interests of their client
• Compensation paid to advisors must be “reasonable”
• Expect adjustments in retirement services market
procedures (takes effect in April 2017)
http://www.investmentnews.com/article/20160509/FEATURE/160509939/the-
dol-fiduciary-rule-will-forever-change-financial-advice-and-the
Changes to Social Security
Claiming Strategies
• Beginning May 2016, married couples are no longer
able to file for- and then suspend- receiving benefits
for the purpose of making their spouse eligible to
take spousal benefits
• Age 62 by 12/31/15 (born 1953 or earlier)- restricted
application for spousal benefits only still allowed at
full retirement age (FRA)
• Still have one-time right to withdraw application for
benefits within 12 months after benefits begin
https://www.onefpa.org/journal/Pages/JUN16-Redo-Strategies-When-Can-
You-Redo-a-Prior-Social-Security-Claiming-Decision.aspx
New FAFSA Timeline
• Free Application for Federal Student Aid (FAFSA)
• Can file as early as October 1 instead of next year
• Can use actual income tax data instead of estimated
data from returns not yet filed
• May get earlier financial aid offers from colleges
• Take-aways:
– Submit FAFSA as early as possible
– Realize capital gains on assets before January 1 of
student’s sophomore year of HS to avoid having money
count as income
• http://www.kiplinger.com/article/college/T042-C000-S002-new-strategies-to-
get-more-financial-aid.html
2016 Military Topic: Military
Lending Act (MLA)
• Military Lending Act (MLA) Final Rule changes in effect 10/3/16
• Extends MLA protections, including 36% Military Annual Percentage Rate
(MAPR) cap, to a wider range of credit products, including credit cards.
• Modifies MAPR to include fees for credit-related ancillary products sold in
connection with the credit transaction, finance charges associated with
consumer credit, and certain application and participation fees.
• Provides a safe harbor for creditors ascertaining whether a consumer is
covered by the final rule's protections.
• Modifies existing prohibition on rolling over, renewing or refinancing
consumer credit.
• Subjects creditors to civil liability and administrative enforcement for MLA
violations.
https://www.fdic.gov/news/news/financial/2015/fil15037.html
2016 Military Topic: Blended
Retirement System (BRS)
• Authorized by the National
Defense Authorization Act (2016).
• Three Pillars:
1. Retirement pay or pension
2. Automatic contributions, plus
matching contributions, to TSP
3. Continuation pay at mid-career
point
Breaking the BRS Down
• 1% automatic DoD contribution to TSP after 60 days of service regardless
of SM’s contribution; 2 YOS vesting
• Up to 5% base pay match for TSP deposits through 26 YOS
• Serve 20 years, get 40% of highest 36 months of average base pay
• One-time continuation bonus paid out at 12 years to SMs who serve 4
more years: 2.5x monthly base pay (military has discretion to increase
amount for skills, retention)
• Anyone with < 12 years of service as of 12/31/17 is eligible to sign up for
the BRS
• Opt-in period is calendar year 2018
• SMs who joined before 1/1/06 will be grandfathered in current system
http://www.defense.gov/News/Article/Article/655705/dod-plans-benefit-
revision-with-blended-retirement
2016 Military Topic: Military
Family Lifestyle Survey
(Blue Star Families)
• Third annual survey in 2016
• Increases understanding of unique needs and
challenges of military families
• Almost 7,000 respondents in 2015
• 2016 findings released in December 2016
https://bluestarfam.org/2016/04/blue-star-families-launches-
2016-annual-military-family-lifestyle-survey/
DMDC Surveys
• DoD Defense Manpower Data Center (DMDC)
• Methodology vs. Blue Star Families studies:
http://download.militaryonesource.mil/12038/MOS/Su
rveys/ADSS_MFLS_Comparison_9_7_2016.pdf
• 2016 Active Duty Spouse Survey Results (7/16):
http://www.militaryonesource.mil/footer?content_id=2
93017
Q4: Any Other
Interesting 2016
Financial Legislation or
Policies?
New or Revised
Financial Education
Resources in 2016
Annual Limits Relating
to Financial Planning
http://www.cffpinfo.
com/annual-limits/
Next Gen Personal Finance
• Significant changes to several units
– Created new Types of Credit unit
– Revamp of Managing Credit unit revamp
• New Products:
– Question of the Day
– Data Crunches
– Interactive Library
– Forms and Statements (Coming Soon!)
• New Lessons: Entrepreneurship, Identity Theft and Philanthropy
• Expanded NGPF Assessment Bank with Pre and Post-Tests and 10
Questions Per Lesson
• Launched Professional Development opportunities
– NGPF Summer Institute
– Professional Learning Community
– Q&A Forum
• Had 52 guests on the NGPF Podcast, including Barbara O'Neill!
NEFE
SAM (Smart About Money): http://www.smartaboutmoney.org/
• Three courses (Emergency Fund, Transportation, Housing) were added
• Five Money Basics courses were added on basic concepts such as:
credit/debt, employment, insurance, investing, and spending/saving.
• Comprehensive worksheets have been added.
• Typical questions (and answers) were added to a section called Common
Money Questions.
• The site is now mobile responsive and can be viewed on smartphones
and tablets.
NEFE
Evaluation Toolkit: http://toolkit.nefe.org/
The Evaluation Toolkit Manual was revised by the Claremont Evaluation
Center. The Financial Education Evaluation Manual helps financial
educators understand the purpose and goals of evaluation and provides
a basic overview of the evaluation process.
CashCourse: https://www.cashcourse.org/
New CashCourse content for 2016:
• 5 CashCourse coursework modules translated to Spanish
• New Budget Wizard student budgeting tool
• 7 new articles on insurance, contributed by the NAIC
NEFE White Paper on Financial
Education Evaluation
Perspectives on Evaluation in Financial
Education: Landscape, Issues, and Studies
10 sections about different audiences and topics
for financial education
http://toolkit.nefe.org/Portals/0/NEFE%20Evaluation%20White%2
0Paper%20October%202016.pdf?ver=2016-10-31-154554-707
CFPB
http://www.consumerfinance.gov/adult-financial-education/
Jump$tart Coalition
Making the Case for Financial Literacy 2016:
http://jumpstart.org/assets/files/Making_the_Case_2016_UpdateMay2016.pdf
eXtension Student Loan
Fact Sheet Series
• College Savings Options
• Paying for Education and Training Beyond High School
• Types of Student Loans
• Student Loans: Responsible Borrowing
• Determining Your Student Loan Servicer and Loan Balance
• Choosing a Federal Student Loan Repayment Plan
• Federal Student Loan Consolidation and Forgiveness
• Recovering from Student Loan Default
• Student Loans: Later Life Impacts
• Student Loan Legislation: Changes You Need to Know
http://articles.extension.org/pages/72895/student-loans
Rutgers Cooperative Extension
High School Lesson Plans
• Risks and Benefits of Entrepreneurship (85k PDF)
• Compound Interest: Your Best Friend or Worst Enemy (106k PDF)
• Know the Score: Credit Score Modeling and Impacts (360k PDF)
• The Impact of Inflation (128k PDF)
• Monetary Transaction Tools (572k PDF)
• Civic Financial Responsibility (511k PDF)
• Insuring and Protecting Property Insurance (112k PDF)
• Comparing Insurance How Health Insurance Works (973k PDF)
• Values, Goals, and Financial Decisions (252k PDF)
• Spending Plan/Budget: Your Financial Road Map (112k PDF)
• Interest: The Cost of Borrowing Money (126k PDF)
http://njaes.rutgers.edu/money/
Road to Financial Wellness
Pit Stop Video (Phroogal)
• https://njaes.rutgers.edu/money/road-to-financial-wellness.asp
Q5: Any Other New
Financial Education
Resources Developed in
2016?
Preview of Expected
2017 Personal
Finance Changes
Social Security
Social Security Feature 2017 2016
Maximum Taxable Earnings $127,200 $118,500
Quarter of Coverage $1,300 $1,260
Earnings Limit (for benefits < FRA) $16,920 $15,720
Maximum Social Security Benefit $2,687 $2,639
0.3% COLA for Social Security beneficiaries in 2017
https://www.ssa.gov/news/press/factsheets/colafacts2017.pdf
Health Savings Accounts
HSA Feature 2017 2016
Contribution Limit Self-Only: $3,400 (+ $50)
Family: $6,750
Self-only: $3,350
Family: SAME
Catch-Up Contribution $1,000 SAME
High Deductible Health
Plan (HDHP) Minimum
Deductibles
Self-Only: $1,300
Family: $2,600
Self-Only: SAME
Family: SAME
2017 Retirement Savings Plan
Contribution Limits
• Increases in income phase-outs for IRA savers
• Increases in AGI limits for the saver’s credit
• Increase in overall defined contribution plan limit: up
to $54,000 (from $53,000 in 2016)
• SAME 401(k)/403(b)/TSP maximum contribution
limit of $18,000 for 2017
• Same $6,000 maximum catch-up limit
http://www.forbes.com/sites/ashleaebeling/2016/10/27/irs-announces-2017-
retirement-plans-contributions-limits-for-401ks-and-more/#6d21270556e2
Inflation-Adjusted Limits to
Take Effect in 2017
• Standard deduction for singles up $50 to $6,350
• Standard deduction for couples up $100 to $12,700
• Standard deduction for heads of household up $50
to $9,350
• Maximum EITC of $6,318 (3+ qualifying children)
• Estate tax exclusion amount will rise to $5,490,000
from $5,450,000 in 2016
https://www.irs.gov/uac/newsroom/in-2017-some-tax-benefits-increase-
slightly-due-to-inflation-adjustments-others-are-unchanged
Key Take-Aways
• Researchers continue to tweak “safe” withdrawal rates
• Personal traits are related to financial behaviors
• Many Americans are unprepared financially for retirement
• Many American households are “financially fragile”
• High deductible insurance policies are now the norm
• Fewer men age 25-54 and more older women are working
• The Military Lending Act (MLA) and Blended Retirement
System (BRS) are key 2016 military personal finance events
Comments? Questions?
oneill@aesop.rutgers.edu
@moneytalk1 on Twitter
Have a wonderful holiday season and a great new year!

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2016 Personal Finance Year in Review

  • 1. 2016 Personal Finance Year in Review https://learn.extension.org/events/2815 This material is based upon work supported by the National Institute of Food and Agriculture, U.S. Department of Agriculture, and the Office of Family Readiness Policy, U.S. Department of Defense under Award Numbers 2010-48869-20685, 2012-48755-20306, and 2014-48770-22587. Barbara O’Neill, Ph.D., CFP®, Rutgers Cooperative Extension oneill@aesop.rutgers.edu
  • 2. An Eclectic Collection of Personal Finance Topics This webinar may be the only in-depth annual review conducted anywhere of personal finance related research, events, trends, legislation, and resources.
  • 3. Webinar Objectives Present a 2016 “Financial Year in Review” • Key findings from 2016 personal finance research studies • Key findings from 2016 government data • Key 2016 financial events and trends and products • Key government legislation/policies affecting personal finances • New or revised financial education resources in 2016 • Preview of expected 2017 personal finance changes • Key take-aways of 2016 events for financial practitioners
  • 4. Q1: What Do You Think Was the MOST Significant Personal Finance Event of 2016?
  • 5. Key Findings From 2016 Personal Finance Studies (Academic)
  • 6. Propensity to Plan: A Key to Health and Wealth (3/16) • Respondents reporting frequent planning behavior had higher health behavior scores • Respondents reporting frequent planning behavior had higher financial behavior scores • Respondents who had higher health behavior scores had higher financial behavior scores https://www.onefpa.org/journal/Pages/MAR16- Propensity-to-Plan-A-Key-to-Health-and-Wealth.aspx
  • 7. Retirement Age and Life Expectancy • Retiring after age 65 may help people live longer • Risk of dying (any cause) was 11% lower for a one- year delay from age 65 to 66 • Risk of dying fell further for people who retired between age 66 and 72 • Even people who retired for health reasons had lower risk of dying • Postponing retirement may delay natural age-related declines in functioning http://jech.bmj.com/content/early/2016/03/21/jech-2015- 207097.short?g=w_jech_ahead_tab (Wu et al.)
  • 8. Home Equity as a Retirement Income Strategy • Pfau (4/16) study of use of reverse mortgages to supplement portfolio withdrawals • Opening line of credit at start of retirement and then delaying its use until the portfolio is depleted creates the most downside protection • Key take-aways: – Open RM line of credit at earliest possible age and leave it unused as long as possible – Lenders or government could eliminate this strategy – RMs are not just something to use as a last resort https://www.onefpa.org/journal/Pages/APR16-Incorporating-Home-Equity- into-a-Retirement-Income-Strategy.aspx
  • 9. Retirement Portfolio Math • Isrealsen (1/16): A portfolio of 65% stocks and 35% bonds/cash has historically had a 98% chance of lasting 35 years – Assumes a 4% withdrawal rate and a 3% COLA increase • Retirees with portfolio balances equal to 12 times their final working year salary can replace 60% of their wages with a 5% withdrawal rate http://www.aaii.com/journal/article/the-mathematics- of-retirement-portfolios
  • 10. “Safe” Retirement Spending • “Feel Free” Retirement Spending Strategy (4/16): Spending level where you have little worry about depleting savings • Person’s age ÷ 20 • Age 60: 60 ÷20 = 3% of savings • Age 70: 70 ÷ 20 = 3.5% of savings • Age 80: 80 ÷ 20 = 4% of savings http://www.investmentnews.com/article/20160622/FR EE/160629965/this-simple-retirement-spending- strategy-takes-on-the-4-rule
  • 11. Retirement Spending “Guardrails” • Klinger (2016) studied retirement portfolio “failures” (i.e., running out of money) • Asset returns alone were not a good early warning sign of failure • Withdrawal rate ratio was a good indicator of future portfolio failure • Applying a guardrail to a retirement strategy could help ensure a financially successful retirement https://www.onefpa.org/journal/Pages/OCT16-Guardrails-to- Prevent-Potential-Retirement-Portfolio-Failure.aspx
  • 12. Personal Traits of Savers • Age- Willingness to save decreases until age 60 and flattens • Economic Hardship in Early Life- Increases savings • Savings Behavior in Youth- Increases savings • Interest in Financial News- Increases savings • Household Administration- Running a “tight” household • A Sense of Control- More willing to set aside money now for future spending • Optimism Regarding the Economy- More willing to postpone current consumption http://www.aaii.com/journal/article/what-personal-traits-do- savers-share.mobile
  • 13. Impulsiveness and Saving • Research by Newcomb (7/16) • When people focus on the future, they tend to be less impulsive, regardless of their level of financial literacy • High levels of impulsiveness and materialism were associated with poor financial decision-making • The strongest predictor of good financial decisions was not financial literacy but focus on the future http://www.apa.org/news/press/releases/2016/08/save-money.aspx
  • 14. Key Findings From 2016 Personal Finance Studies (Non-Academic)
  • 15. “4% Rule” Withdrawal or Annuities? • TIAA Institute Study (5/16): compared systematic withdrawals to annuitizing • Conclusion: Do both! – Put half of savings into variable annuity – Get additional income from withdrawals from stock and bond portfolio • Combination approach provided the best mixture of both income and ending wealth https://www.tiaainstitute.org/public/institute/research/lifetime- income/achieving-retirement-income-security
  • 16. 2016 EBRI Retirement Confidence Survey (RCS) • 69% of workers (or their spouse) had saved for retirement • Considerable gap between workers’ expectations and retirees’ experience about leaving workforce • 48% of workers (or spouse) had calculated retirement savings need • 54% of workers had < $25,000 saved (excluding value of home and DB pension) – Includes 26% who have < $1,000 https://www.ebri.org/pdf/surveys/rcs/2016/EBRI_IB_422.Mar16.RCS.pdf
  • 17. Millennial Retirement Planning • AICPA Study (3/16): Millennials have 2 major obstacles to saving for retirement – Student loan debt – Pessimism and scars from the 2008 financial crisis • Only half had started to save for retirement • Half fear losing their savings in retirement • Reassure millennials that time is on their side – Time to invest – Time diversification https://www.aicpa.org/press/pressreleases/2016/pages/saving- is-a-top-priority-for-millennials.aspx Journal of Financial Planning, September 2016, p. 14.
  • 18. America Saves Week Survey • 2016 survey: 49% of 1,004 respondents save at least 5% of income • 43% save automatically outside of work • 40% report good or excellent progress in “meeting their savings needs” • Those with “a savings plan with specific goals” save more successfully than those without a plan http://www.americasavesweek.org/less-than-half-of-u- s-households-report-good-savings-progress- according-to-9th-annual-america-saves-week-survey/
  • 19. Financial Fragility Associated Press poll (5/16) • 75% of people in households making <$50,000/year would have difficulty coming up with $1,000 to cover an unexpected bill • 67% of people in households making $50,000 to $100,000/year would have difficulty • 38% of people in households making >$100,000/year would have difficulty http://bigstory.ap.org/article/965e48ed609245539ed315 f83e01b6a2
  • 20. Cost of Child Care New America study (9/16) • Full-time care in a center for a child age 4 or under costs > average in-state college tuition – Child care center: $9,589 – Average college tuition: $9,410 • One-fifth of families use a “patchwork” approach http://www.fa-mag.com/news/finding-good--affordable- childcare-tough-in-any-u-s--state-29212.html http://www.wsj.com/articles/soaring-child-care-costs- squeeze-families-1467415411
  • 21. FINRAIEF National Financial Capability Study (NFCS) • 2015 findings released in Summer 2016 • Continuation of some positive trends in 2015 from 2012 study (e.g., less difficulty paying bills) • Percentage of Americans with health insurance increased from 78% in 2012 to 87% in 2015 • 34% of 27,564 respondents probably or certainly could not come up with $2,000 for unexpected needs • Half of respondents do not have an emergency fund of three months expenses http://www.usfinancialcapability.org/downloads/NFCS_2015_Report_Natl_Findings.pdf
  • 22. Identity Theft Aftermath • Identity Theft Resource Center report: Identity Theft” The Aftermath 2016 • 150 million Social Security numbers exposed in breaches in 2015 • Takeovers of credit cards down (due to chips?) but new account fraud and unauthorized use of debit cards, bank accounts, and PayPal increased • Nearly half of tax fraud victims were forced to borrow money or apply for government assistance when they did not receive refunds http://www.idtheftcenter.org/images/page-docs/AftermathFinal_2016.pdf
  • 23. Key Findings From 2015 Government Data
  • 24. Spending Patterns of Older Adults • U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Study (3/16): Spending patterns do not change significantly in many categories until a person reaches age 75 • Spending drops significantly after age 75 • Clothing, transportation, entertainment decline • Health expenditures increased beyond age 64 – $4,958 in age 55-64 group – $5,956 in age 65-74 group – $5,708 in age 75+ group http://www.bls.gov/opub/btn/volume-5/spending-patterns-of- older-americans.htm
  • 25. Credit Card Debt May 2016 Credit Card Debt Statistics: • Average American household debt: $5,700 – Households with and without revolving balances • Average for balance-carrying households: $16,048 – Remember, many households are carrying much more • 38.1% of all households carry some sort of credit card debt (Census and Federal Reserve data) https://www.valuepenguin.com/average-credit-card-debt
  • 26. Baby Boomer Debt 2/16 Federal Reserve Bank of NY data • Unprecedented debt loads for older Americans • Average 65-year old borrower has 47% more mortgage debt and 29% more auto debt than 65- year olds in 2003 • Student loan debt among 65-year olds is a growing category http://www.wsj.com/articles/new-york-fed-finds-large-increase- in-debts-held-by-those-over-age-50-1455289257
  • 27. Median Income Increase 9/16 Census Bureau report • First gain in household income since 2007 • Largest annual gain since Census Bureau began releasing data in 1967 • Median household income in 2015 was $56,516, up 5.2% ($2,798) from a year earlier after inflation • 2015 official poverty rate: 13.5% vs. 14.8% in 2014 http://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-household-incomes- surged-5-2-in-2015-ending-slide-1473776295
  • 28. Household Net Worth Increase • Collective record of $89.1 trillion for all U.S. households (Federal Reserve data) • Generally driven by strong stock market and rising home values and increased bank deposits • More than 3 million households remain underwater on mortgages http://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-household-wealth-rises-to- record-1474042043
  • 29. “A Tale of Two Americas” • National averages indicate recovery from the Great Recession • National statistics do not reflect the experience of many people • Income and assets of upper 10% of households are skewing data used to measure economic health • “Hollowing out” of mid-level positions in workforce http://bigstory.ap.org/article/6594cedbfa2140f3a766862ae7ef13c0/memphis -and-around-us-economic-averages-miss-big-picture
  • 30. Financial Fragility May 2016 Federal Reserve Board study: • 46% of adults said they either could not cover an emergency expense costing $400 or would cover it by selling something or borrowing something • 31% of non-retired respondents had no retirement savings or pension http://www.federalreserve.gov/2015-report-economic- well-being-us-households-201605.pdf
  • 31. Upper Middle Class Makes Gains • Upper middle class is larger and richer than it has ever been – 29.4% of population in 2014 – 12.9% of population in 1979 • Study definition: household earnings of $100k to $350k for family of three http://www.wsj.com/articles/upper-middle-class-sees- big-gains-research-finds-1466554177
  • 32. Q2: Any Other Interesting 2016 Financial Surveys That You Remember?
  • 33. Key 2016 Financial Events and Trends and Products
  • 34. High-Deductible Health Insurance Plans • In 2016, FOR THE FIRST TIME EVER, more than half of workers- 51%- have a deductible of more than $1,000 for a plan covering a single person (vs. 46% in 2015) • In 2017, 84% of large employers will offer high-deductible plans – 35% of large employers will offer ONLY high- deductible plans (Kaiser/HRET survey) http://www.wsj.com/articles/employers-shift-higher- health-care-costs-to-workers-1476194147
  • 35. Pullback on Employer Workplace Wellness Benefits • Decline in workplace wellness benefits designed to cut employee health costs • Examples include – Onsite flu shots – 24-hour nurse hotlines – Health coaching – Insurance premium discounts • Measuring ROI for wellness programs is difficult http://www.wsj.com/articles/employers-cut-down-on- wellness-benefits-1466395262
  • 36. Percentage of Uninsured Americans at Historic Low • 2016 Survey: 8.8% of respondents lack health insurance (versus 16% in 2010) • Translates to 27.3 million people • 15.9% of 25 to 34 year olds were uninsured • 8.1% of 45 to 64 year olds were uninsured • Around 40% of those under 65 were in a high- deductible plan (versus 25.3% in 2010) http://www.wsj.com/articles/percentage-of-uninsured-historically- low-1473220802
  • 37. ACA Targeting Young Adults • Big push to sign up uninsured young adults < age 35 • Using Twitter and Twitch (video game platform) • Young adults help offset costs of older, sicker people • Open enrollment: 11/1/16-1/31/17 • < 30% of those with coverage were age 18-34 (2016) • Concern: Enrollment stagnation could lead more insurers to drop out http://www.wsj.com/articles/obama-administration-to-appeal-to- young-adults-to-sign-up-for-health-insurance-1474984080
  • 38. ACA Health Plan Choices Shrink • Kaiser Foundation estimate: There could be just one option for coverage in 31% of counties in 2017 (vs. 7% of counties in 2016) • Many insurers are losing money on ACA health plans • Humana and Aetna have withdrawn from market • Remaining insurers seeing sharp premium increases http://www.wsj.com/articles/health-insurers-pullback- threatens-to-create-monopolies-1472408338
  • 39. ACA Tax Penalties • Called a “shared responsibility payment” by the IRS – In effect, an extra tax – Substantially higher than 2014 amount • Taxpayers owe the GREATER OF a flat assessment or a percentage of income • 2016 flat assessment penalty is $695 per adult ($347.50 per child) with a maximum of $2,085 per household • 2016 percentage of income penalty is 2.5% of household income, up to national average cost of a Bronze plan https://www.healthcare.gov/fees/fee-for-not-being-covered/
  • 40. Decline in Long Term Care (LTC) Insurance Purchases • Americans bought 105,000 LTC policies in 2015 (vs. 750,000 in 2000); 3.2 million boomers turned 65 • 70% of people turning 65 in 2016 will need some type of LTC at some point in their lives • 8 hours of daily care costs about $44,000 • A year of nursing home care costs $91,000 http://www.fa-mag.com/news/americans-need-long- term-health-planning---will-they-get-it-29081.html
  • 41. Older Working Women • Since 12/07, the share older working women (age 65+) has grown while the percentage of every other category of U.S. worker- by age and gender has declined or is flat • 1 in 7 women work past 65 vs. 1 in 12 in 1992 • Projected to be 1 in 5 women by 2024 • Find job rewarding and/or financial need http://www.wsj.com/articles/older-women-reshape-u-s- job-market-1456192536
  • 42. Oldest Baby Boomers Turned 70 • 2.5 million living baby boomers (of 3.4 million born in 1946) hit the “Big 70” milestone in 2016 • Can expect about 15 more years of life • Increase in age 70+ people working; will be ¼ of people age 70 to 74 by 2024 • Beginning of required minimum distributions: first RMD in 2016 or 2017 • Never before have so many 70-year olds owed money on their house http://www.aarp.org/politics-society/history/info-2016/baby- boomers-turning-70.html
  • 43. Bank Overdraft Fees • 1/16 Article: http://money.cnn.com/2016/01/14/investing/atm- overdraft-fees/ • Typical overdraft fee is $34 • CFPB Study: majority of overdrafts are made on transactions of $24 or less • CFPB Study: If someone borrowed $24 for three days and paid an overdraft fee of $34, the APR would be 17,000%
  • 44. Wells Fargo Scandal • Wells Fargo fined $185 million for creating fake bank and credit card accounts. • Culture of unrealistically high sales targets • >5,000 employees let go; CEO Stumpf stepped down • Unwanted credit cards, fake PIN numbers, etc. • Transfers to fake accounts often triggered overdraft fees when original account balance ran low • Take-Away: Check your credit report! http://money.cnn.com/2016/09/30/pf/fake-bank- accounts/
  • 45. ACH Upgrades • Automated Clearinghouse Network (ACH) for electronic fund transfers ($42 trillion annually) • 9/16: Big step toward real-time money movements • Businesses can hold onto cash until day that workers get paid instead of a few days later http://www.wsj.com/articles/same-day-paycheck- deposits-finally-arrive40-years-later-1474668954
  • 46. “Quiet Catastrophe” Report • Smaller % of men age 25-54 are working today than near the end of the great depression! • If labor force participation was as high today as 2000, 10 million more Americans would have jobs • Get by on government benefits and support by others • Spend 5.5 hours a day watching TV and movies • Nicholas Eberstadt monograph: Men Without Work: America’s Invisible Crisis: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/americas-quiet- catastrophe-millions-of-idle-men/2016/10/05/cd01b750-8a57- 11e6-bff0-d53f592f176e_story.html?utm_term=.ca77bf920858
  • 47. Millennials Living at Home • For first time in modern era, living with parents edges out all other living arrangements for 18- to 34-year- olds (5/16 Pew Research Center Report) • Just under a third (32.1%) of millennials live at home (almost half in NJ) • Impact on parents’ retirement savings, home downsizing plans, etc. http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2016/05/24/for-first- time-in-modern-era-living-with-parents-edges-out- other-living-arrangements-for-18-to-34-year-olds/
  • 48. Student Loan Debt • Share of borrowers defaulting on student loans has fallen modestly but remains high • Just over 11% of 5.2 million students who left school in FY 2013 have defaulted – Default = go > 360 days without making a payment after leaving school • More students are finding jobs and increased use of income-driven repayment plans that reduce payments http://www.wsj.com/articles/fewer-students-are-defaulting-on- loans-after-leaving-college-1475083308
  • 49. Free FICO Credit Scores • 2013- Discover was first major card issuer to give customers free access to FICO scores • 2016- Most big banks now provide credit score access to customers. • An estimated 100 million Americans now have access to their credit score – Through their credit card or bank • Does not impact credit score because people are not actively applying for new credit http://www.usnews.com/news/business/articles/2016-03-09/banks-now- giving-customers-access-to-credit-scores-for-free
  • 50. Tax Fraud Scams • Explosion of fake e-mails and calls purporting to come from IRS • Some ask victims to pay a balance tied to the Affordable Care Act (ACA) • Some ask for payment with a prepaid debit card • The IRS never initiates contact by e-mail or phone http://www.wsj.com/articles/the-new-irs-email-scam- coming-to-your-inbox-1475143202
  • 51. Tax ID Theft Cut in Half • Unprecedented public-private crackdown • Tax preparation firms and IRS shared information • Prevented millions of dollars in fraudulent refunds • Tax identity theft dropped 50% during first nine months of the year • More new safeguards planned for 2017 http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2016/11/03/irs-says- 2016-crackdown-helped-slow-identity-theft-tax-refund- fraud/93234624/
  • 52. Predatory Installment Loans • CFPB crackdown on payday loans has led to increase in predatory installment loans (“filling a void”) • Installment loans are not in CFPB payday loan proposals • Often carry triple digit APRs, but have longer repayment periods, e.g., 6-12 months • May be for a few thousand dollars, paid in a series of installments vs. in a lump sum • Customers still struggle to repay debt (balance declines very slowly) http://www.wsj.com/articles/a-payday-loan-alternative-gains- ground-1470603307
  • 53. 40th Birthday of First Index Fund • 9/76- Vanguard 500 Index Fund opened (Jack Bogle) with $11.3 million on assets • Today: 20 million investor clients, including many “Bogleheads”: https://www.bogleheads.org/ • > $3 trillion in passively managed assets http://www.wsj.com/articles/jack-bogle-the-undisputed- champion-of-the-long-run-1472855372 https://gcalhoun.files.wordpress.com/2016/09/16-09-01- wsj-happy-birthday-to-the-index-fund.pdf
  • 54. U.S. Homeownership Rate • 7/16 Census Bureau Report- % of U.S. households that own homes matched lowest level in 51 years (1965, when the U.S. Census began tracking) • Just 62.9% of households owned a home • Peak of 69.2% in 2004 • Reasons include: rising property prices, high rents, stagnant pay, student loan debt http://bigstory.ap.org/article/7874336198a5405f8bfaa2673a56d ffe/us-homeownership-rate-629-percent-matches-51-year-low
  • 55. New Respectability for Reverse Mortgages • Repackaged with 2013 consumer protections – Homeowners can’t take all of their equity at once – Protections for non-borrowing spouse (can remain in home if certain conditions are met) • Empirical research: No longer just a “last resort” – Can extend life of savings; line of credit can help portfolio recover after market downturns – Can delay taking Social Security benefits until age 70 http://www.wsj.com/articles/new-math-on-reverse- mortgages-1458525888
  • 56. Q3: Any Other Interesting 2016 Financial Events, Trends, or Products?
  • 57. Key Government Legislation and Policies Affecting Personal Finances
  • 58. IRS Waivers on 60-Day Rollover Deadline for Retirement Plans • 2016 IRS clarification of acceptable reasons for waivers of 10% penalty and ordinary income tax • Reasons include – Financial institution and postal errors – Misplaced distribution checks never received – Severe damage to principal residence – Death or serious illness in family – Incarceration of taxpayer https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-drop/rp-16-47.pdf
  • 59. DoL Final Fiduciary Rule “Covered investment advice is defined as a recommendation to a plan, plan fiduciary, plan participant and beneficiary or IRA owner for a fee or other compensation, direct or indirect, as to the advisability of buying, holding, selling or exchanging securities or other investment property, including recommendations as to the investment of securities or other property after the securities or other property are rolled over, transferred or distributed from a plan or IRA” https://www.dol.gov/agencies/ebsa/about-ebsa/our-activities/resource- center/fact-sheets/dol-final-rule-to-address-conflicts-of-interest
  • 60. DoL Fiduciary Rule Implications • Aimed at eliminating exorbitant fees and commissions • Financial advisors who provide guidance on retirement plan assets are required to recommend what is in the best interests of their client • Compensation paid to advisors must be “reasonable” • Expect adjustments in retirement services market procedures (takes effect in April 2017) http://www.investmentnews.com/article/20160509/FEATURE/160509939/the- dol-fiduciary-rule-will-forever-change-financial-advice-and-the
  • 61. Changes to Social Security Claiming Strategies • Beginning May 2016, married couples are no longer able to file for- and then suspend- receiving benefits for the purpose of making their spouse eligible to take spousal benefits • Age 62 by 12/31/15 (born 1953 or earlier)- restricted application for spousal benefits only still allowed at full retirement age (FRA) • Still have one-time right to withdraw application for benefits within 12 months after benefits begin https://www.onefpa.org/journal/Pages/JUN16-Redo-Strategies-When-Can- You-Redo-a-Prior-Social-Security-Claiming-Decision.aspx
  • 62. New FAFSA Timeline • Free Application for Federal Student Aid (FAFSA) • Can file as early as October 1 instead of next year • Can use actual income tax data instead of estimated data from returns not yet filed • May get earlier financial aid offers from colleges • Take-aways: – Submit FAFSA as early as possible – Realize capital gains on assets before January 1 of student’s sophomore year of HS to avoid having money count as income • http://www.kiplinger.com/article/college/T042-C000-S002-new-strategies-to- get-more-financial-aid.html
  • 63. 2016 Military Topic: Military Lending Act (MLA) • Military Lending Act (MLA) Final Rule changes in effect 10/3/16 • Extends MLA protections, including 36% Military Annual Percentage Rate (MAPR) cap, to a wider range of credit products, including credit cards. • Modifies MAPR to include fees for credit-related ancillary products sold in connection with the credit transaction, finance charges associated with consumer credit, and certain application and participation fees. • Provides a safe harbor for creditors ascertaining whether a consumer is covered by the final rule's protections. • Modifies existing prohibition on rolling over, renewing or refinancing consumer credit. • Subjects creditors to civil liability and administrative enforcement for MLA violations. https://www.fdic.gov/news/news/financial/2015/fil15037.html
  • 64. 2016 Military Topic: Blended Retirement System (BRS) • Authorized by the National Defense Authorization Act (2016). • Three Pillars: 1. Retirement pay or pension 2. Automatic contributions, plus matching contributions, to TSP 3. Continuation pay at mid-career point
  • 65. Breaking the BRS Down • 1% automatic DoD contribution to TSP after 60 days of service regardless of SM’s contribution; 2 YOS vesting • Up to 5% base pay match for TSP deposits through 26 YOS • Serve 20 years, get 40% of highest 36 months of average base pay • One-time continuation bonus paid out at 12 years to SMs who serve 4 more years: 2.5x monthly base pay (military has discretion to increase amount for skills, retention) • Anyone with < 12 years of service as of 12/31/17 is eligible to sign up for the BRS • Opt-in period is calendar year 2018 • SMs who joined before 1/1/06 will be grandfathered in current system http://www.defense.gov/News/Article/Article/655705/dod-plans-benefit- revision-with-blended-retirement
  • 66. 2016 Military Topic: Military Family Lifestyle Survey (Blue Star Families) • Third annual survey in 2016 • Increases understanding of unique needs and challenges of military families • Almost 7,000 respondents in 2015 • 2016 findings released in December 2016 https://bluestarfam.org/2016/04/blue-star-families-launches- 2016-annual-military-family-lifestyle-survey/
  • 67. DMDC Surveys • DoD Defense Manpower Data Center (DMDC) • Methodology vs. Blue Star Families studies: http://download.militaryonesource.mil/12038/MOS/Su rveys/ADSS_MFLS_Comparison_9_7_2016.pdf • 2016 Active Duty Spouse Survey Results (7/16): http://www.militaryonesource.mil/footer?content_id=2 93017
  • 68. Q4: Any Other Interesting 2016 Financial Legislation or Policies?
  • 69. New or Revised Financial Education Resources in 2016
  • 70. Annual Limits Relating to Financial Planning http://www.cffpinfo. com/annual-limits/
  • 71. Next Gen Personal Finance • Significant changes to several units – Created new Types of Credit unit – Revamp of Managing Credit unit revamp • New Products: – Question of the Day – Data Crunches – Interactive Library – Forms and Statements (Coming Soon!) • New Lessons: Entrepreneurship, Identity Theft and Philanthropy • Expanded NGPF Assessment Bank with Pre and Post-Tests and 10 Questions Per Lesson • Launched Professional Development opportunities – NGPF Summer Institute – Professional Learning Community – Q&A Forum • Had 52 guests on the NGPF Podcast, including Barbara O'Neill!
  • 72. NEFE SAM (Smart About Money): http://www.smartaboutmoney.org/ • Three courses (Emergency Fund, Transportation, Housing) were added • Five Money Basics courses were added on basic concepts such as: credit/debt, employment, insurance, investing, and spending/saving. • Comprehensive worksheets have been added. • Typical questions (and answers) were added to a section called Common Money Questions. • The site is now mobile responsive and can be viewed on smartphones and tablets.
  • 73. NEFE Evaluation Toolkit: http://toolkit.nefe.org/ The Evaluation Toolkit Manual was revised by the Claremont Evaluation Center. The Financial Education Evaluation Manual helps financial educators understand the purpose and goals of evaluation and provides a basic overview of the evaluation process. CashCourse: https://www.cashcourse.org/ New CashCourse content for 2016: • 5 CashCourse coursework modules translated to Spanish • New Budget Wizard student budgeting tool • 7 new articles on insurance, contributed by the NAIC
  • 74. NEFE White Paper on Financial Education Evaluation Perspectives on Evaluation in Financial Education: Landscape, Issues, and Studies 10 sections about different audiences and topics for financial education http://toolkit.nefe.org/Portals/0/NEFE%20Evaluation%20White%2 0Paper%20October%202016.pdf?ver=2016-10-31-154554-707
  • 76. Jump$tart Coalition Making the Case for Financial Literacy 2016: http://jumpstart.org/assets/files/Making_the_Case_2016_UpdateMay2016.pdf
  • 77. eXtension Student Loan Fact Sheet Series • College Savings Options • Paying for Education and Training Beyond High School • Types of Student Loans • Student Loans: Responsible Borrowing • Determining Your Student Loan Servicer and Loan Balance • Choosing a Federal Student Loan Repayment Plan • Federal Student Loan Consolidation and Forgiveness • Recovering from Student Loan Default • Student Loans: Later Life Impacts • Student Loan Legislation: Changes You Need to Know http://articles.extension.org/pages/72895/student-loans
  • 78. Rutgers Cooperative Extension High School Lesson Plans • Risks and Benefits of Entrepreneurship (85k PDF) • Compound Interest: Your Best Friend or Worst Enemy (106k PDF) • Know the Score: Credit Score Modeling and Impacts (360k PDF) • The Impact of Inflation (128k PDF) • Monetary Transaction Tools (572k PDF) • Civic Financial Responsibility (511k PDF) • Insuring and Protecting Property Insurance (112k PDF) • Comparing Insurance How Health Insurance Works (973k PDF) • Values, Goals, and Financial Decisions (252k PDF) • Spending Plan/Budget: Your Financial Road Map (112k PDF) • Interest: The Cost of Borrowing Money (126k PDF) http://njaes.rutgers.edu/money/
  • 79. Road to Financial Wellness Pit Stop Video (Phroogal) • https://njaes.rutgers.edu/money/road-to-financial-wellness.asp
  • 80. Q5: Any Other New Financial Education Resources Developed in 2016?
  • 81. Preview of Expected 2017 Personal Finance Changes
  • 82. Social Security Social Security Feature 2017 2016 Maximum Taxable Earnings $127,200 $118,500 Quarter of Coverage $1,300 $1,260 Earnings Limit (for benefits < FRA) $16,920 $15,720 Maximum Social Security Benefit $2,687 $2,639 0.3% COLA for Social Security beneficiaries in 2017 https://www.ssa.gov/news/press/factsheets/colafacts2017.pdf
  • 83. Health Savings Accounts HSA Feature 2017 2016 Contribution Limit Self-Only: $3,400 (+ $50) Family: $6,750 Self-only: $3,350 Family: SAME Catch-Up Contribution $1,000 SAME High Deductible Health Plan (HDHP) Minimum Deductibles Self-Only: $1,300 Family: $2,600 Self-Only: SAME Family: SAME
  • 84. 2017 Retirement Savings Plan Contribution Limits • Increases in income phase-outs for IRA savers • Increases in AGI limits for the saver’s credit • Increase in overall defined contribution plan limit: up to $54,000 (from $53,000 in 2016) • SAME 401(k)/403(b)/TSP maximum contribution limit of $18,000 for 2017 • Same $6,000 maximum catch-up limit http://www.forbes.com/sites/ashleaebeling/2016/10/27/irs-announces-2017- retirement-plans-contributions-limits-for-401ks-and-more/#6d21270556e2
  • 85. Inflation-Adjusted Limits to Take Effect in 2017 • Standard deduction for singles up $50 to $6,350 • Standard deduction for couples up $100 to $12,700 • Standard deduction for heads of household up $50 to $9,350 • Maximum EITC of $6,318 (3+ qualifying children) • Estate tax exclusion amount will rise to $5,490,000 from $5,450,000 in 2016 https://www.irs.gov/uac/newsroom/in-2017-some-tax-benefits-increase- slightly-due-to-inflation-adjustments-others-are-unchanged
  • 86. Key Take-Aways • Researchers continue to tweak “safe” withdrawal rates • Personal traits are related to financial behaviors • Many Americans are unprepared financially for retirement • Many American households are “financially fragile” • High deductible insurance policies are now the norm • Fewer men age 25-54 and more older women are working • The Military Lending Act (MLA) and Blended Retirement System (BRS) are key 2016 military personal finance events
  • 87. Comments? Questions? oneill@aesop.rutgers.edu @moneytalk1 on Twitter Have a wonderful holiday season and a great new year!