A glimpse into the future

2. “people have no
idea how fast the
world is changing”

3. Autonomous Vehicles: Car-as-a-Service
• Most major care companies and more than a few major tech companies have AV
programs up and running.
• BMW, Volvo, Mercedes, Toyota…and Apple, Google (Waymo), Uber, and Tesla
• AVs will be cheaper, safe, more efficient, and environmentally-positive
• Two large forces for change: 1) demonetization and 2) saved time
• 1) ridesharing AVs can be 80% cheaper than car ownership
• 2) average roundtrip commute is ~51 min. à with AVs it can be spent doing whatever you pleasure
• Drivers of consolidation:
• Car usage rates – car owners drive their vehicles less than 5% pf the time
• Functionality – cheap and quick are the biggest factors impacting consumer choice in this market
• No need for parking lots/spaces/garages – they cover more than a third of land area
Key Takeaway: more time, more land, more productivity

4. Avatars
• An avatar is a second self – two forms (digital and robot)
• Digital: VR headset teleports your and eyes and ears to another location – add haptic sensors
and gain your sense of touch
• Robot: a humanoid robot that you can control at will (put on your VR head set and haptic suit
and you can teleport your senses to that robot – you can walk around, shake hands, and take
action)
• Removes transportation entirely
• Evolution of disruption: individual car ownership à ridesharing model à autonomous fleets
à flying cars à Hyperloops and rockets à avatars
Key Takeaway: the future is faster than you think

5. Convergence
Key Takeaway: its not about a single technology
Faster,
Cheaper,
Computing
Power
Sensors
Networks
AI
Robotics
3D Printing
AR & VR
Synthetic Biology
Blockchain
New
Business
Models,
Markets,
and
Ecosystems

6. Convergence: Uber
• Problem: urban congestion/traffic à costs ~$300B in lost income and
productivity
• Solution: urban aviation or ‘aerial ridesharing’
• Jeff Holden (former CPO) - “Ultimately, we want to make it economically irrational to own
and use a car”
• Why now? The convergence of accelerating/exponential technologies
• Distributed electric propulsion (DEP) + machine learning (ML) + artificial intelligence (AI) +
materials science + 3-D printing + sensors + batteries
• Its not about a single technology, rather its about the convergence and layering of multiple
exponential technologies that produces true innovation
Key Takeaway: true innovation requires convergence

7. The Acceleration of Acceleration
1. Computation Abundance
2. Time Abundance/“Saved” Time
3. Capital Abundance
4. Demonetization of Tech
5. Communications Abundance
6. Increasing Genius (BCI)
7. Increasing Lifespan

8. Computation Abundance
• Bandwidth cost performance has dropped dramatically (<$1 per
gigabit/sec)
• Computing cost performance cost less than 1 cent ($.01) per one million
transistors
• Storage cost performance is near $0
• Cost to launch a tech startup in 2000 was $5M, today its less than $5k
• Open source and horizontal scaling, Cloud + AWS, infrastructure
providers/platforms

9. the time it takes to go from
“I’ve got an idea”
to
“I run a $B company”
is shrinking dramatically

10. Time Abundance: Apple
• Steve Jobs desperately wanted the Original Macintosh to boot up
faster (even if it was only 10 seconds quicker), but why did those
few seconds matter so much to him?
• Think about it this way: if 5 million people use the Apple II every
day and you can shave off 10 seconds off the boot time, you’re
saving 50 million seconds (or about 580 days) every single day.
Over a year its about a dozen lifetimes. That’s worth it.
• Tech decreases the amount of hours of human labor, thus,
increasing free time for us to experiment, discover, innovate, etc.

11. Capital Abundance
• Unprecedented influx of capital
• Crowdfunding
• Venture Funding
• Initial Coin Offerings (ICOs)
• Sovereign Wealth Funds
• Nothing accelerates technological development like money. More capital
means more people experimenting, failing, innovating and driving
breakthroughs.
• By democratizing access to capital, anyone, anywhere, with a good idea
and access to the internet, can seek the capital they need to get going.

12. Demonetization of Tech
• Having your capital stretch 10x, 100x, or 1000x further than it
could before (i.e. a lot more bang for your buck)
• Example: Human Genome Sequencing
• In 2001, it took 9 months and $100M to sequence a single human
genome. Today, you can have it done in and hour and for $100.
• Your research grant or fundraising now goes much further than
ever before, accelerating insights and catalyzing breakthroughs

13. Communication Abundance
• The power of the network – a tool that allows minds to connect with other minds,
exchange ideas, and spark innovations
• 16th century coffeehouses à urban environments/cities à GLOBE
• Density à cross-pollination of ideas à experiments, discoveries, and innovation
• % of Earths population connected to the internet
• 2010: 25% or 1.8B people
• 2017: ~50% or 3.8B people
• Next decade: near 100% or ~8B people
• Adding nearly 4.2B new minds will usher in the greatest period of innovation and economic progress
• Soon all of us, every single human, will be networked at gigabit speeds
• 3G (384 Kbps) à 4G (100 Mbps) à 5G (10 Gbps)
• Explosion of networks and satellites providing this connection (e.g. Tesla’s Starlink)

14. Increasing Genius (BCI)
• Until recently, most genius was squandered – your chances of being able
to use that talent or being discovered was limited
• Gender, class, culture, and location all mattered and weren’t in your favor
• A hyper-connected world will provide an opportunity for these
individuals to participate which will result in more breakthrough ideas,
faster innovation, and greater acceleration
• Brain-computer interfaces (BCIs) – the ultimate tale of convergence
• Connecting our brains to the cloud provides us with a massive boost in
processing power and memory, and access to other minds online
• Intersection of biotech, nanotech, materials science, quantum computing,
AI/ML, networks etc.

15. a future of perfect
knowledge, you can know
anything you want,
anytime, anywhere…

16. Increasing Lifespan: “100 is the new 60”
• Increasing the number of years we’re operating at peak capacity and capable of
making the greatest contribution to society
• “Senolytic medicines” – target and destroy senescent cells, restoring proper
function to inflamed tissues
• Unity Biotechnology (Bezos is an investor)
• “Young blood” approach – transfuse old mice with blood from young mice
• Elevian (Harvard)
• Stem cells – target pathways that regulate the self-renewal and differentiation of
adult stem cells à regrow cartilage, heal tendons, remove wrinkles, stop cancer
• Samumed ($13B valuation)

17. What a Time to be Alive
• In the next decade, we’ll be throwing the most amount of
capital at the most amount of people who have the most
amount of computing power and time at their disposal.
• Take a second and just think about what that means…

18. THE SIX D’s OF
EXPONENTIALS:
THE GROWTH CYCLE

19. 1. Digitalization
2. Deception
3. Disruption
4. Demonetization
5. Dematerialization
6. Democratization

20. Digitalization
Once a technology becomes digital, meaning once you can
translate it into 1’s and 0’s of binary code, it jumps on the back
of Moore’s Law (processing power will double every two years
– smaller devices, more power) and begins accelerating
exponentially. With quantum, Rose’s Law will do all the lifting.

21. Deception
Exponentials generate a lot of hype when first introduced,
however, because early progress is slow, these technologies
spend a long time failing to live up to the hype.
• Example: Bitcoin
• Originally, most people thought it was a novelty or used for
illegal purchases
• Now, it’s reinventing our financial markets

22. Disruption
This is what happens when exponentials really start to impact
the world, when they begin disrupting existing products,
services, markets, and industries.
• Example: 3-D Printing
• A single exponential technology that threatens the entire $10 trillion
manufacturing sector

23. Demonetization
Where a product or service one had a cost, now money
vanishes from the equation.
• Example: Photographs
• Photographs were once expensive. You took limited numbers of pictures
because film and developing that film cost a lot of money. But once photos
became digital, those costs vanished. Now you take photos without
thinking of them.

24. Democratization
This is when an exponential scales and goes wide.
• Example: Cell Phones
• Cell phones were once brick-sized instruments only available to a wealthy
few. Today, almost everyone has one, making it nearly impossible to find
anywhere in the world untouched by this technology

25. EXPONENTIAL
TECHNOLOGIES

26. - Quantum Computing
- Artificial Intelligence
- Networks
- 5G, Balloons, and Satellites
- Sensors
- Robotics
- Virtual and Augmented
Reality
- 3-D Printing
- Blockchain
- Material Science and
Nanotech
- Biotechnology

27. Quantum Computing
• Meet the qubit – a quantum bit
• Utilizes “superposition” rather than either/or scenarios which allows bits to be in multiple states at once
(requires super-cold temperatures)
• Superposition = power (a lot of it)
• Race for “quantum supremacy”
• Google, IBM, Microsoft, Rigetti, Oxford, Yale, US and Chinese governments
• Rose’s Law – the number of qubits in a quantum computer doubles every year
• Will usher in a “golden age of discovery in new materials, new chemicals, and new drugs”
• By 2050, your average $1,000 laptop will have the computing power of the entire human population
• Everyone can play – quantum computing and developer's kits are available online
Key Takeaway: quantum computing will impact everything

28. READ THE BOOK