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How to change your business during the recession caused by corona virus

A few years ago I have seen a documentary movie showing a refugee camp. To my surprise they have managed to create a mini economy inside the camp. There was a school, hairdresser, somebody who could fix the tent. In other words even if the worst happens a new balance is created in which the flow of goods and services carries on.
We will see the same thing during and after the corona virus pandemic. He will be most likely witnessing pretty big recession this year and the businesses will have to adapt to the new situation.
We will see a lot of changes in sales, operations, population control that will help you go back to the new normal state in which the economy will be rebuild. Similar to what after 9/11 there will be however a lot of changes in the way in which we handle human contact and how we organize our enterprises.
We have prepared a few tips on that in a form of a presentation. We have divided it into 2 parts. In the first one we provide some tips for the firms. In the second one for the governments. Some of them are short term tips how to handle the situation 6 months. There are also tips that will help you avoid such a huge shock to the everyday life in the long run
Enjoy this presentation

I would also recommend checking the following other resources:
1. Bain – Defending Retail against coronavirus
2. Roland Berger - Three Scenarios For How Coronavirus May Affect Economies And Industries

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How to change your business during the recession caused by corona virus

  1. 1. 1 How to change your business during the corona-recession Tips on how to adjust your business model during the recession caused by coronavirus
  2. 2. 2 The coronavirus will cause a recession and will require from you adjustments in the business model and how you conduct your business.
  3. 3. 3 As it was with in the case of the 9/11 aftermath a lot of customer behaviors will be permanently changed. Also businesses will ave to adjust to the new reality.
  4. 4. 4 I will try to show some tips how to adjust your business model to the new reality, what areas you should concentrate on and what options for you are on the table
  5. 5. 5 Corona-recession means that you will have to rethink your business in 5 main area Changes in the business model Sales Customer Trust & Confidence Operations Supply Chain Balance Sheet Others
  6. 6. 6 In the case of sales you will have to make yourself more immune to similar shocks Changes in the business model Sales Customer Trust & Confidence Operations Supply Chain Balance Sheet Others Sell more online Sell more directly to customer Scale your capacity in online sales Redirect your offline customers to online customers Automate processes in retail Make retail safer for customers Make retail safer for employees Have less people in retail stores Sell more as a subscription Make it visible that it’s safer Increase the role of the digital services in your revenues Be able to deliver new value to customers remotely
  7. 7. 7 Let’s see what you can do to increase the customer trust and their confidence that your operations are safe for them Changes in the business model Sales Customer Trust & Confidence Operations Supply Chain Balance Sheet Others Have less people in retail stores Automate processes in retail Purell distributors at your locations for customers Masks & gloves available for free for the customers All goods packed Automate advisory & cash tills Control the flow of customers Increase the space between customers Make it visible that it’s safer Increase sales without human contact Sell more online Change your customer retention policy
  8. 8. 8 A lot of changes have to be done in operations Changes in the business model Sales Customer Trust & Confidence Operations Supply Chain Balance Sheet Others Masks & gloves available for free for the employees More shift work – less human contact Automate whatever you can Use more machines and less people Change the layout of the factories – less human contact Have more but smaller factories Clean everything every 4-8 hours Shift work in Head office Decrease density and open spaces Change air-condition system Build infrastructure for remote work More remote work Change your sick leave & health policy
  9. 9. 9 A lot of changes have to be done also in supply chain Changes in the business model Sales Customer Trust & Confidence Operations Supply Chain Balance Sheet Others Diversify suppliers Keep much more stock Simplify & standardize products More smaller independent facilities Track and control tools & assets used by people Shorten lead times Clean everything every 4-8 hours Change air-condition system Automate supply chain (warehousing, transport etc.) Do more with software Increase remote work & make people more universal Create more buffers
  10. 10. 10 Firms to be safer will also have to change their approach to their balance sheet. Changes in the business model Sales Customer Trust & Confidence Operations Supply Chain Balance Sheet Others Keep much more cash – 3 – 9 months of costs Increase the share of equity – 50% of total Increase stock levels Have collaterals or guarantees on your receivables Retain more earnings in the firm Use assets that you can scale down & up Limit buybacks of share Stress test your balance sheet
  11. 11. 11 In business you have to make a lot of important decisions Also governments will have to adjust their policy to be able to act quickly and not be totally surprised like it’s happening now
  12. 12. 12 The government will have to concentrate on 5 main areas Changes in the business model Build strategic resources for pandemic Be able to 10x your healthcare Increase Population Control Change Sick Leave Policy Offer all public services online Others
  13. 13. 13 The government will have to concentrate on 5 main areas Changes in the business model Build strategic resources for pandemic Be able to 10x your healthcare Increase Population Control Change Sick Leave Policy Offer all public services online Others List situations for which you have to prepare List resources needed Keep resources for 3- 6 months of pandemic Have ability to scale production 10x in 3 months locally Keep 12 months raw material for production Make production as automatic as possible Build a national fund for 3-6 months pandemic Have a pandemic team that can’t be changed by politics Pandemic team has to have independent budget Pandemic budget should be a % of GDP Set % cannot be changed by politicians Keep low deficit in normal times
  14. 14. 14 The government will have to concentrate on 5 main areas Changes in the business model Build strategic resources for pandemic Be able to 10x your healthcare Increase Population Control Change Sick Leave Policy Offer all public services online Others Automate your healthcare Keep a list of former employees of healthcare Train more healthcare workers than you need Introduce basic healthcare training for all Use more machines, software Have supplies to keep your system running for 3 - 6 M Draft people to healthcare if the need occurs Have a list & a plan of converting facilities into hospitals Simplify procedure and chains Make hospitals more universal
  15. 15. 15 The government will have to concentrate on 5 main areas Changes in the business model Build strategic resources for pandemic Be able to 10x your healthcare Increase Population Control Change Sick Leave Policy Offer all public services online Others Track people who had contact with sick people via GPS Measure temperature on borders Oblige employers to measure & track health status Measure health status via wearables Oblige event organizers to have a list of participants Track movement of sick people via GPS / mobile phone Have penalties for sick people working Compulsory vaccination Increase the number of vaccinations Change the layout of the cities Impose limits on the size of cities Impose restriction on travelling conditions
  16. 16. 16 The government will have to concentrate on 5 main areas Changes in the business model Build strategic resources for pandemic Be able to 10x your healthcare Increase Population Control Change Sick Leave Policy Offer all public services online Others Compulsory payment for sick leave Payment as a high percentage of the salary (50-80%) Have penalties for sick people working Sick kids compelled to use online learning Finance the sick leaves for parents when they kid is sick Refund vaccination
  17. 17. 17 The government will have to concentrate on 5 main areas Changes in the business model Build strategic resources for pandemic Be able to 10x your healthcare Increase Population Control Change Sick Leave Policy Offer all public services online Others All contacts with the government done online Online learning for all levels of education Online exams / tests system Digital confirmation of actions Online or phone based healthcare Decentralize & automate things that cannot be digitalized Obliged employers to have 20% remote work Have 20% of public employees work remote
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