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32
AROMAR REVI
HOW TO BALANCE THE DESIRES
OF 1.6 BILLION PEOPLE
INTERVIEW | HENNING THOMSEN
BANGALORE w
India is in the midst of an urbanization process where 800 mil-
lion people will eventually live in cities – and yet, as many will
continue to live in rural areas. The overwhelming scale of the
Indian situation is without parallel and requires new ways of
planning, even new ways of educating planners. Aromar Revi
joinedtheconversationonhousingandplanningfromhisoffice
at the Indian Institute for Human Settlements in Bangalore,
India. 
What are the main issues we are facing in housing and planning
today?
I guess the context is probably the most important thing for us to
understand. The context – and this also relates to East Asia and China
– is that India is just starting on a dramatic journey, starting on what I
would call the second largest urbanization in history. The largest one
being the Chinese urbanization we have seen over the past 30 years
or so. India is just about to start on that journey and most people in
India, including professionals, planners and people in the housing sec-
tor, have little sense of how that will play out and the scale of change
that we can expect to see.
IndiaisprettymuchatthepointChinawasin1982whenDengXia-
oping went out on his famous tour of the world and the whole process
of economic redevelopment and transition started in China. That said
therearesignificantdifferences.ThefirstdifferenceisthatSouthAsia,
unlikemanyotherpartsoftheworld,hashistorically hadamuchlower
levelofurbanizationcomparedtoit’slevelofpercapitaincomeorlevel
of development. This means that at the current point in time, much of
South-Asia is still about 70% rural and 30% urban. So we are at a stage
whereNorthAmericawasinthemid-19thcenturyandwhereLatin
America was in the early 1920s and 1930s. But unlike North America
Indien befinder sig midt i en urbaniseringsproces, der vil ende
med, at 800 millioner mennesker kommer til at bo i byerne
– og alligevel vil lige så mange fortsat bo på landet. Situatio-
nens overvældende omfang er uden sidestykke og kræver helt
nye måder at planlægge på og sågar helt nye planuddannelser.
Aromar Revi har talt med os om boligbyggeri og planlægning
fra sit kontor på Indian Institute for Human Settlements i den
indiske by Bangalore. 
Hvad er de største udfordringer, når vi taler om boliger og plan-
lægning i dag?
Det vigtigste er nok at forstå konteksten. Sagen er den, at Indien – og
det samme gælder Østasien og Kina – netop er ved at begive sig ud på
en dramatisk rejse. Det drejer sig om det, jeg vil kalde den næststørste
urbanisering i historien. Den største er den kinesiske urbanisering,
vi har oplevet i de seneste ca. 30 år. Den rejse er Indien først nu ved at
begive sig ud på, og de fleste indere, også akademikere, planlæggere og
folk fra boligsektoren, har ingen begreb om, hvordan det vil komme til
at udspille sig. De fatter simpelthen ikke de enorme forandringer, vi
står overfor.
Indien befinder sig nogenlunde der, hvor Kina var i 1982, da Deng
Xiaoping begav sig ud på sin berømte verdensturné, og hele Kinas
økonomiske regenererings- og forandringsproces tog sin begyndelse.
Der er dog nogle afgørende forskelle. Den første er, at Sydasien sam-
menlignet med mange andre steder i verden altid har haft en meget
lav urbaniseringsgrad i forhold til den gennemsnitlige indkomst eller
udviklingsniveauet. Det har medført, at meget af Sydasien stadig er
omkring 70% land og 30% by. Så vi befinder os på det stadium, hvor
Nordamerikavaribegyndelsenaf1920’erneog30’erne.Menimodsæt-
ning til Nordamerika og Latinamerika, og måske selv Kina, vil Indien
Efter flere år med midlertidig base i Storbritannien flyttes forbundet i oktober
til Den Haag i Holland.
After years of temporary residence in Great Britain the federation in October
moves to The Hague in Holland.
Krigens afslutning markerer et demografisk opsving i form af efterkrigstidens
babyboom.
The end of the war coincides with a substantial demographic baby boom.
	1949	 1950
ARKITEKTUR DK 01 2013 33
Aromar Revi er direktør for Indian Institute for Human Settlements (IIHS)
– Indiens første nationale universitet for forskning og innovation, som vil
fokusere på de udfordringer, der er forbundet med urbaniseringen, vha.
et integreret program af uddannelse, forskning, konsulentvirksomhed og
rådgivning. Revi er kandidat fra IIT-Delhi og fra skolen for jura og ledelse ved
universitetet i Delhi. Han er medlem af det Indisk-kinesiske Institut ved The
New School i New York. Aromar Revi regnes som en af de førende eksperter
i globale klimaforandringer, herunder især klimastrategier og -tilpasning.
Han er desuden en af ophavsmændene til afsnittet om Urban Areas i IPCC’s
5. statusrapport (2014).
Aromar Revi is the Director of the Indian Institute for Human Settlements
(IIHS) – India’s first prospective National University for Research and
Innovation to address challenges of urbanization through an integrated
program of education, research, consulting and advisory services. He is
an alumnus of IIT-Delhi and the Law and Management schools of the
University of Delhi. He is also a Fellow of the India-China Institute at The
New School, New York. Aromar Revi is considered a leading expert on
global environmental change, especially on climate change adaptation and
mitigation. He is one of the coordinating lead authors for the Urban Areas
section of the IPCC 5th Assessment Report (2014).
and Latin America, maybe even unlike China, India will probably never
become predominantly urban for much of this century.
Our process of urbanization will probably reach 50% at the same
time as our population growth peaks. The Indian population is
expected to peak at somewhere between 1.5 and 1.6 billion by 2050.
At that time we will probably be 50% urban and 50% rural. This
is important to understand because unlike North America, Latin
America and maybe even China, this changes the nature of how we
plan and what we plan for and who is involved in the process of plan-
ning.
The important thing to understand is the highly
decentralized nature of Indian and South Asian settlement structures.
India at this moment has 8000 urban centers, and it has 640,000 vil-
lages. In other words, the number of villages is about 80-100 times the
numberofurbancenters.Whatweexpecttoseehappenby2050,asthe
Indian population starts to stabilize, is that the number of villages will
still be one to two order of magnitude more than the urban centers.
(...) The challenge of being able to plan and to create housing for such
a large population, with this particular kind of (urban-rural) configu-
ration, is very different from what you find pretty much anywhere else
in the world. In 2050 India will be either the largest or second largest
economy in the world. Currently we are number 5 or 6 depending on
how you calculate. We will have a very large economy but India will
still be relatively low on the per capita income scale. India will be a
large economy, but a relatively poor country. And a large part of the
population will be living within a decentralized settlement structure.
A conventional view of development would expect you to move
from a rural agrarian society into one that is industrially driven
and from that you move into a service and postindustrial struc-
ture. You are saying that India is behaving differently?
Yes, those are the conventional stages of development. The thing about
South-Asia – this is true of India, but possibly of Pakistan, Bangla-
deshandSriLanka– isthatwehavemovedtoastagewheretheservice
sector is actually the lead driver of the economy. In some senses we
have skipped the industrial stage, at least as far as conventional
theories of development is concerned, and moved to a different econo-
mic structure.
One of the big questions to emerge over the next 20 or 30 years
is whether this economic structure is sustainable from the economic
point of view. At the moment in India the agriculture and primary
sector accounts for about 15% of the GDP, manufacturing is slightly
more, about 16-17% and then the rest is made up of
aldrig gå hen og blive overvejende urbant.
Vores urbaniseringsrate vil sandsynligvis nå op på 50%, samtidig
med at befolkningstilvæksten topper. Man forventer, at den indiske
befolkning vil nå op på et sted mellem 1,5 og 1,6 milliarder i 2050. Til
den tid vil vi så være 50% urbane og 50% rurale. Det er meget vigtigt at
forstå, for i modsætning til Nordamerika og Latinamerika, og måske
selv Kina, har det stor betydning for, hvordan vi planlægger, og hvad vi
planlægger for, og hvem der skal være med i planlægningsprocessen. 
I den forbindelse skal man selvfølgelig være opmærksom på den
decentralisering, der kendetegner Indiens og Sydasiens bosættelses-
mønser.Somdeternu,harIndien8000bycentreog640.000landsbyer.
Der er altså 80-100 gange flere landsbyer end byer. Det, vi forventer, vil
ske i 2050, når den indiske befolkning begynder at stabilisere sig, er, at
der vil blive ved med at være nogenlunde det samme forhold mellem
antallet af landsbyer og antallet af byer. (…) Den udfordring, der ligger
i at skulle planlægge og bygge boliger til så stor en befolkning med den
helt særlige (urban-rurale) sammensætning, er helt anderledes end
det, man finder andre steder i verden. I 2050 vil Indien være den stør-
ste eller den næststørste økonomi i verden. I øjeblikket er vi nummer
5 eller 6, afhængig af måden, man regner det ud på. Vi vil have en meget
stor økonomi, men Indien vil stadig være et relativt fattigt land. Og en
stor del af befolkningen vil bo decentraliseret.
Hvis man så på udviklingen med konventionelle briller, ville man
forvente, at I ville bevæge jer fra et ruralt landbrugssamfund til et
industrisamfund og derfra videre til et service- og postindustrielt
samfund. Men du siger, det er anderledes i Indien?  
Ja,deterdekonventionelleudviklingsstadier.MeniSydasien–dether
gælder for Indien, men også for Pakistan, Bangladesh og Sri Lanka – er
vi nået til et stadium, hvor servicesektoren faktisk er den største øko-
nomiske vækstgenerator. På en måde har vi sprunget det industrielle
stadium over, i hvert fald i konventionel forstand, og bevæget os videre
til en anden økonomisk struktur.
Etafdestorespørgsmål,somvilmeldesigidenærmeste20eller30
år, er, om denne økonomiske struktur er bæredygtig fra en økonomisk
synsvinkel.Somdeternu,tegnerlandbrugetogprimærsektorensigfor
ca. 15% af bruttonationalproduktet, produktionen sig for lidt mere, en
16-17%, og resten udgøres af den resterende sekundære sektor og den
tertiære sektor. Spørgsmålet er, om man kan producere nok varer til
så stor en befolkning med så lille en produktionssektor. Og det har en
enorm betydning for, hvilken form for industriel udvikling, man får,
og selvfølgelig for hvordan økonomien og erhvervssammensætningen
bliveridestorbyerogbyer,manbygger.Ogdetharsåigenendramatisk
Den europæiske union stiftes som Kul- og Stålunionen, og muligheden for et
bedre samarbejde på tværs af grænser bliver en realitet. Seks medlemslande
indgår fra start.
The European Coal and Steel Union is established and better cross-border
collaboration becomes a reality. The Union has six member states.
Le Corbusier opfører Unité d’Habitation i Marseille, Frankrig.
L’Unité d’Habitation in Marseille, France, by architect Le Corbusier, is built.
1951	 				 1953
34
the tertiary or services sector. One key policy question is if you can
provide enough goods for such a large population with such a small
manufacturing sector. This has implications on the kind
of industrial development you have and of course on the economic and
occupational structure of cities and towns that you build. In
turnthishasadramaticimpactonhowyouactuallyplanandwhatkind
of housing you require and where you will require it.
This is fundamentally different from historical developments
in other parts of the world. At one end people could claim this is a form
of underdevelopment. On the other hand, we can look at this as a tremendous
opportunity. One hundred years ago, when the IFHP was established,
theworldhadabout3billionpeople.Bythetimewereach2050wemay
have about 8 or 9 billion people. We move from a situation in which
the world was largely empty to a situation where the world is really
quite full.
Our externalities and the resources that we are consuming both on
thebiomasssidebutalsointermsofcarbonandgreenhouse
gasses are starting to affect not only our individual cities and regions,
buttheyareactuallyaffectingtheglobalclimate systemandthat'sreading
back into the way our own cultures and civilizations are able to develop.
This will have a huge impact on planning, will it not?
Absolutely. In fact the challenge for us in Asia, and
India in particular, is that we actually filled up as a subcontinent much
fasterthanmanyotherpartsoftheworld,becausewealready
had a large population base. When India became independent in 1947 we
were about 300 million people. Now we are already 1.2 billion. We will
be 1.5 billion in another 30 years or so. In a sense our landscape, both
cultural and otherwise, is full of people, which means that we have
some serious constraints we have to consider.
The most important constraint is land and with it food.
The second most important constraint is water. Both food and water
become things that villages and cities will struggle with. Cities as we
know them cannot survive unless these services are provided to them.
You cannot get the economic growth or the kind of development that
you would expect at 8-10% like China, unless theses resources are
available. Constraints on land and soil, on water, and then on energy
are going to be very important in determining whether the sustainable
transition is possible or not.
When you have conflicts about water you have to manage it locally.
Similarly renewable energy is not concentrated, it spans the entire
landscape. If you take wind, like in Denmark, you know the wind is
both on-shore and off-shore. It is not present only in a particular town.
Renewablesaredistributedacrossthelandscape,ofteninthreedimen-
sions, which means that you have a sort of resource landscape, which
matches, at least in South-Asia, the decentralized settlement
structure. This is a tremendous opportunity because in some
senses your production and consumption systems are decentralized
and your resource flows are also decentralized. If you bring these
things together you can actually connect them effectively using net-
worked technologies. (...)
Looking at the compatibility between the settlements and the
locally distributed resources, you just described, the scale of the
settlements must be the tipping point for whether this works out
or not?
Absolutely. That is a central question. Hidden in this question are
indflydelsepå,hvordanmanfaktiskplanlægger,oghvilkenslagsboliger
der er brug for, og hvor der er brug for dem.   
På den måde er situationen væsensforskellig fra den historiske
udvikling andre steder i verden. Man kan godt sige, at det er en form
for underudvikling. På den anden side ser vi det som en enestående
chance. For hundrede år siden, da IFHP blev grundlagt, var Jordens
befolkningpåca.3mia.mennesker.Nårvinårtil2050,vilviformentlig
være 8-9 mia. Vi bevæger os fra en situation, hvor verden var næsten
tom, til en situation, hvor den faktisk er temmelig fuld.
Vores eksternaliteter og de ressourcer, vi forbruger, både med hen-
syn til biomasse og sådan noget som CO2
og drivhusgasser, er begyndt
ikke blot at påvirke de enkelte byer og regioner, men også hele det glo-
bale system, og det påvirker så igen måden, vores kulturer og civilisa-
tioner udvikler sig på.
Det må da have store konsekvenser for planlægningen?
Absolut. Og faktisk er problemet for os i Asien, ikke mindst i Sydasien
og Indien, at vi som subkontinent blev meget hurtigere fyldt op end
mange andre dele af verden, fordi vi allerede havde en stor befolkning.
Da Indien blev selvstændigt i 1947, var vi ca. 300 mio. mennesker. Nu
er vi allerede 1,2 mia. Om ca. 30 år vil vi være 1,5 mia. Man kan sige, at
voreslandskab,bådekultureltogpåandenmåde,erfuldtafmennesker,
og det betyder, at vi har nogle alvorlige begrænsninger at tage højde for.
Den vigtigste mangelvare er jorden og dermed selvfølgelig føde-
varer. Den næstvigtigste er vandet. Både mad og vand er noget, som
landsbyerne og byerne vil komme til at kæmpe om. Byerne, som vi
kender dem, kan ikke overleve, hvis ikke de bliver forsynet med mad
og vand. Man kan ikke få den forventede økonomiske vækst eller en
udvikling på 7-8-9-10% ligesom Kina, med mindre man har adgang til
de ressourcer. Manglen på jord og vand og derefter på energi vil få stor
betydning for, om det lykkes at skabe en bæredygtig overgang eller ej.
Når der opstår strid om vandet, er man nødt til at klare det lokalt.
Tilsvarende er vedvarende energi ikke koncentreret bestemte steder,
menspredtudoverlandet.Tagermanf.eks.vindenergi,findesdenbåde
til lands og til vands. Vinden er ikke begrænset til en bestemt by. Den
vedvarende energi er fordelt over hele landet, ofte i tre dimensioner,
hvilket betyder, at man faktisk står med en slags ressourcelandskab,
som, i hvert fald i sydasiatisk sammenhæng, passer til bebyggelsens
decentraliserede karakter. Det giver os en enestående mulighed, fordi
produktions- og forbrugssystemet på mange måder er decentraliseret,
og hvis man bringer de to sammen, kan man faktisk forbinde dem gan-
ske effektivt ved hjælp af netværksteknologier. (...)
Når man har den kompatibilitet mellem bebyggelsesmønstret og
de jævnt fordelte ressourcer, du lige har beskrevet, så er det vel
bebyggelsernes omfang, der afgør, om det kan lade sig gøre eller ej?
Ja, helt sikkert. Det er et vigtigt spørgsmål. Spørgsmålet bygger på de
store antagelser, vi har om byudviklingen. F.eks. er en af de tvivlsomme
forstillinger, vi gør os, at når vi når et højt lønniveau, vil mellem 5 og
10% af befolkningen leve af landbrug. Jeg tror, vi skal spørge os selv:
Hvordan skal vi kunne brødføde 1,5 mia. mennesker, hvis kun 5-10% af
befolkningenerbeskæftigetmedatfremstilledefødevarer,derskaltil?
I Kina er de meget opmærksomme på det problem, for de har set, hvad
der skete, da Sovjetunionen kollapsede. Kollapset havde ikke bare med
den kolde krig og våbenkapløbet at gøre. Det handlede om, at Rusland
ikke var i stand til at brødføde sig selv.
Forbundet fejrer 40 års jubilæum med sloganet “Life Begins at Forty”.
The federation celebrates its 40th anniversary under the slogan “Life Begins
at Forty.”
	1953	 1954	
Asian Regional body of the International Federation for Housing and Town
Planning (EAROPH) stiftes. EAROPH er en gren af forbundet, som primært
beskæftiger sig med byplanmæssige udfordringer på det asiatiske kontinent.
The Asian Regional body of the International Federation for Housing and
Town Planning (EAROPH) is founded. EAROPH primarily focuses on urban
challenges on the Asian continent.
ARKITEKTUR DK 01 2013 35
the big assumptions that we make about the urban development. For
example, one of the critical assumptions that we make today is that
once you reach a high-income level you may have between 5 and 10%
of the population making a living from agriculture. The question I
think we need to ask is: How will you feed 1.5 billion people with just
5-10% of a population making the produce to feed them? China is very
engaged with this question, because they have looked at what happe-
nedwiththecollapseoftheSovietUnion.Structurallythecollapsewas
not only about the Cold War and the arms race. It was about
Russia being unable to feed itself.
And this is where China might be heading today, with limited land
to grow crops on, is it not?
Exactly.Chinaisveryconcernedaboutthis.Theyaretryingtoin­crease
productivity tremendously, especially in the heartland of China. How
do you do that? You crop more intensively and you bring water. Water
is coming from afar and of course this was what the Three Gorges Dam
was about and what the interbasin transfer from the Tibetan plateau
to Northern China will be about. You conserve water and
Risikerer Kina ikke, at det samme kommer til ske for dem pga.
manglen på landbrugsjord?
Jo, præcis. De gør meget ud af at højne produktiviteten, ikke mindst i
det centrale Kina. Og hvordan gør man så det? Man intensiverer dyrk-
ningen af jorden, og man tilfører mere vand. Vandet kommer langvejs-
fra, og det er det, der ligger til grund for De Tre Slugters Dæmning og
det store projekt, der skal lede vand fra den tibetanske højslette til det
nordlige Kina. Man sparer på vandet og gør mange andre ting, og man
prøver at sikre sig, at systemerne er cykliske, så næringsstofferne bli-
ver genanvendt.
Men jeg tror, det, Kina har indset for længe siden, er, at hvis de vil
sikre, at befolkningen i det centrale Kina har mad nok, slår deres egen
produktion ikke til. Det er derfor, Kina de seneste 15 år eller derom-
kringharengageretsigsåmegetiproduktionenaffødevarer,mineraler
og tømmer både i Afrika og Latinamerika, hvor der stadig er ret store
uudviklede landområder. Kinas fodaftryk er gået hen og blevet globalt,
når det gælder resourcekontrol og -udvinding. (…) I modsætning til i
Rusland og Kina er der stadig mange bønder i Indien. Noget af det,
man frygtede i Rusland med bl.a. Perestrojka, var, at der ikke ville være
1958	 				 1960
Efter flere navneændringer i forbundets levetid bliver IFHP nu det officielle
navn.
After having gone through several different names in its lifetime, the IFHP
eventually becomes the name of the federation.
Europa oplever i 1960’erne en højkonjunkturperiode. Højkonjunkturen
medfører en stigning i beskæftigelsen i offentlige erhverv, og en reel
urbanisering finder sted.
Throughout the 1960s Europe experiences a period of economic boom resulting
in both a rise in public employment and increased urbanization.
36
you try and make sure that your systems are cy clical so nutrients ­
are recycled.
But I think that what China has recognized a long time back is if
they want to protect the food security of their heartland they cannot
only do that with domestic production. And that's why for the last 15
years or so, both in Africa and Latin America where they still have
a fairly large amounts of land available, China is taking very strong
positions in establishing food production, mineral and timber
production. China's footprint now is a global footprint in terms of
resource control and extraction. (...) Unlike Russia and China, India
still has a very strong peasant population. One of the problems that
Russiafaced,whenPerestroikaandotherthingsstarted,wasthatthey
did not actually have enough people to go back and farm the land.
India still has that culture in place and we still have large num-
bers of people who are able to grow and farm things. So when we are
look­ing at long-term sustainability I think it is a critical and necessary
condition that people are able to work the land and do it with local
resources. But of course this does not mean that their lives are like that
of their grandparents. The quality of their lives could be dramatically
better.Youalso don’thaveto havea systemthatiscompletelydistorted
by subsidies to make this happen and you have to develop an economic
system that is able to balance these questions out.
I think India has a tremendous opportunity to be able to practice
sustainable agriculture and green production, and also maintain
a significant proportion of our population on the land. We don't
know what that proportion precisely is, but my guess is it is 15%,
to 25%. It means that if we have a quarter of our population
involved in sustainable growing and green manufacturing using
decentralized systems then the economies of scales of those settle-
ments and those places become quite different. (...)
What about the physical environment in all of this? Are you envi-
sioning a situation in India where people would not in the same
scale as in many other places move to cities to better their life
situations, because they can actually better it locally?
Possibly so and this is what we will find out in the next 15 or 20 years.
One of the fascinating conundrums of India and South-Asia is that we
have actually had very low migration rates over the last 20 or 30 years.
In fact net urban-rural migration rates have been either stagnating or
mennesker nok til at dyrke jorden.
Indien har stadig en landbrugskultur, og vi har stadig masser af
mennesker, som kan dyrke jorden. Så hvis systemet fortsat skal være
bæredygtigt, tror jeg, det er en vigtig og nødvendig betingelse, at folk
er i stand til at dyrke jorden og gøre det med landets egne ressourcer.
Men det betyder selvfølgelig ikke, at de skal leve på samme måde som
deres bedsteforældre. Deres livskvalitet kan blive forbedret dramatisk.
Man behøver heller ikke have et system, der er helt forvredet af støt-
teordninger, man er nødt til at udvikle et økonomisk system, der kan
afbalancere den slags.
Jeg synes, det her er en enestående mulighed for Indien til at skabe
et landbrug og en produktion, der er bæredygtig og grøn, med en stor
del af befolkningen stadig boende i landdistrikterne. Vi ved ikke, hvor
stor en del, det kommer til at handle om, men min fornemmelse er,
at det i hvert fald ikke bliver 10%, snarere op imod 25%. Det betyder,
at hvis en fjerdedel af befolkningen er beskæftiget med bæredygtigt
landbrug og bæredygtig produktion i decentraliserede systemer, så vil
økonomien og bebyggelsesmønstret være et helt andet. (...)
Hvad så meddetfysiskemiljø? Forestiller du dig en situation,hvor
folk ikke i samme omfang flytter ind til byerne for at forbedre
deres levestandard, fordi de faktisk kan forbedre den der, hvor de
er?
Sådan kan det meget vel blive, men det får vi at se i de kommende 15
eller 20 år. En af de mærkelige ting ved Indien og Sydasien er, at vi fak-
tisk har haft en meget lav migrationsrate i de seneste 20-30 år. Faktisk
har den samlede migration mellem by og land været enten uændret
eller ligefrem faldende. Dette strider mod den almindelige antagelse,
og det er der en grund til. Én årsag er selvfølgelig kulturen. Vi er stadig
langthenadvejenetruralt,agrariskogoraltsamfund,ogdet,vioplever
og vil opleve i løbet af de kommende 20-30 år, er overgangen fra det og
til et samfund, der er forholdsvis urbant, men ikke helt.
Den dårlige livskvalitet, der kendetegner livet i byen, det høje pris-
niveau, de dårlige faciliteter og den utilstrækkelige infrastruktur, man-
gelen på jobs og problemet med at bevare forbindelsen til den kultur,
man føler sig knyttet til, gør, at byerne simpelthen ikke er attraktive.
TagermandensydligestatKerala,ellerGoafordensagsskyld,præ-
ges de af det, vi kalder ‘rur-banisering’, hvor man faktisk ingen store
bycentre har, men snarere et kontinuum mellem landsbyen og bycen-
Den amerikanske journalist og aktivist Jane Jacobs udgiver bogen The Death
and Life of Great American Cities. I bogen argumenterer hun for, at det 20. årh.s
byplanlægning i USA kun har været til glæde for et fåtal af byens beboere.
The American journalist and activist Jane Jacobs publishes her book The Death
and Life of Great American Cities. In it she describes how urban development in
the US did not respect the needs of most city-dwellers.
Store udstykninger af jord i parceller til byggeri og bolig skaber
parcelhuskvarterer i mange større byers periferi. Bilismens fremmarch skaber
ligeledes bilafhængige samfund, der medfører større byers spredning.
Suburbanization is spreading on the peripheries of many larger cities in the
Western world. The rise of automobilization creates car-dependent societies
and increases suburbanization and urban sprawl.
	1961	 1962
ARKITEKTUR DK 01 2013 37
declining. This is contrary to the general perception and there is a reason
for that. One reason of course is the culture. We are very much still a
rural, agrarian and oral culture and I think the big thing that we will
see over the next 20 to 30 years is the transition from
that to one that is sort of significantly urban but not completely so.
Because of the poor quality of life they offer, the high cost of living
and having to cope with poor services and dysfunctional infrastruc-
ture, lack of jobs and opportunities of being able to stay connected to
a culture you are familiar with, cities simply aren’t attractive.
If you take the southern state Kerala or Goa, what
you find is something that we call ‘rurbanisation’, where
you don’t have any large urban centers, but rather a
continuum between village and the urban areas. Densities are
quite high, much of the development is linear or clustered, and
the difference between a village and a large urban center in terms of
quality of life, in terms of access, in terms of most of the things that
you value in a service-oriented society, is not significant. From your village
house within half an hour you would be in an urban center where you could
go to university or college. In the vil-
lage you would have a better quality of life in terms of environment,you
haveaccesstothephone,totheInternet,totelevision.
You are much better off in your village which in some senses would
be like a small town, because your village
may have 10,000 people or 20,000 people inside it. (...)
Something we have come across in our conversations on planning,
and this is maybe particularly a European phenomenon, is a wish
forlessplanning.ButwhenwetalktopeopleinsaySouthAmerica,
theydisagree.Moreplanningisneededtheysay.IntheIndiancon-
text, is there a need for more planning and what kind of planning
are you envisioning?
I think we have a serious problem with the kind of planning that we
have in India today. We are practicing a form of planning that came out
of Europe or out of a European imagination which is about 50 or 60
years old. It absolutely does not fit with the structure of how our soci-
eties are organized. Also most of it is a-temporal, it is unable to cope
with things that are changing very rapidly. It came from a condition in
whichcitieswerealreadylargely built.Nowcitiesaregrowingatarateof
2-3% a year or even faster. Most such cities were designed for an economy
thatwasclosetosteadystate,growingmaybe2-3%ayear.Wenowhave
economies that are growing at 7-8% a year.
WhenEbenezerHowardandPatrickGeddesexperienced in the west in
theearly20thcentury,theeconomiccircum­stances
were different. We absolutely do not need the kind of planning
thatwearepracticingtodayandthat’sthereasonwhywe'reinthemiddle
of building this national University (Indian Institute of Human Set­
tlements) that is going to address the challenge of dealing with the
development of settlements over the next 50 or 100 years in this part
of our world. We are educating a new generation of profes-
sionals who will help manage this urban transformation and we hope some
will go into politics, help in the management of cities, into the private
sector and civil society. This cannot happen with a single specialised
profession, it has to happen across the entire system, so we are not
just educating planners or planners who think differently, but actually
educating an entire new generation of Indians to
enable the urban transition to happen.
tret. Tætheden her er ret høj, meget af bebyggelsen er nærmest lineær
eller formet som klynger, og der er ikke så stor forskel på en landsby og
et større bycentrum, når det gælder livskvalitet og nærheden til facili-
teter eller andre af de ting, man lægger vægt på i et service-orienteret
samfund. Fra dit hus i landsbyen kan du komme ind til byen på en halv
time. Hvis du vil gå på universitetet eller en anden læreanstalt, kan du
det. Miljøet i landsbyen giver dig den samme livskvalitet, eller måske
meget bedre, du har adgang til telefon, internet, tv. Når det gælder
kontakten til andre, er du meget bedre stillet, hvis du bor i en landsby.
Landsbyen vil på mange måder minde om en mindre by, for landsbyen
har måske 10-20.000 indbyggere. (...)
En ting, vi har strejfet i vores samtaler om planlægning, og det er
måske først og fremmest et europæisk fænomen, er behovet for
mindre planlægning. Men hvis man f.eks. spørger folk i Sydame-
rika, så er det ikke noget, de kan genkende. De synes netop, der er
behov for mere planlægning. Hvordan er det i Indien, er der behov
for mere planlægning, og hvad slags planlægning er der i så fald
brug for?
Efter min mening er den planlægning, vi har i Indien, meget problema-
tisk. Vi praktiserer en form for planlægning, der stammer fra Europa
eller fra en europæisk tankegang, der er 50-60 år gammel. Den passer
overhovedet ikke til den måde, vores samfund er opbygget på. Des-
uden er den mere eller mindre atemporær, den dur ikke, hvis vilkå-
rene ændrer sig meget hurtigt. Den blev til i en kontekst, hvor byerne
allerede var bygget. Nu vokser byerne med 2-3% om året eller endnu
hurtigere. Størstedelen af den blev skabt til en økonomi, der var tæt på
stagnerende, måske med en stigning på 2-3% om året. Men nu vokser
vores økonomier med 7-8% om året.
Dengang Ebenezer Howard og Patrick Geddes og andre lavede
deres planlægning i begyndelsen af det 20. århundrede, var de økono-
miske omstændigheder nogle andre. Så vi har overhovedet ikke brug
for den form for planlægning, vi ser i øjeblikket, og det er også derfor,
vi har startet det nationale universitet (Indian Institute of Human
Settlements), hvor vi skal se på de udfordringer, det er at skulle hånd-
tere de kommende 50 eller 100 års bebyggelse i denne del af verden.
Vi uddanner en ny generation af akademikere, som vil være med til at
styre dette, og som er villige til at gå ind i politik, i ledelsen af byerne,
i den private sektor, i den offentlige sektor, så vi kan få det hele til at
fungere. Det er ikke noget, en enkelt profession kan klare alene, det
kræver hele systemets medvirken. Derfor uddanner vi ikke bare plan-
læggere eller planlægger, der tænker anderledes, men faktisk en helt
ny generation af indere, der forhåbentlig bliver færdige tids nok til at
kunne sikre, at denne forvandling kommer til at falde heldigt ud. 
Mange regionale organisationer udspringer af IFHP. Det bliver i fremtiden en
opgave for IFHP at bevare forholdet og samarbejdet med disse.
Several regional offsprings develop out of the IFHP. A future task for the IFHP
will be to retain relationships and collaboration with the regional offsprings.
1963	 				 1966
IFHP fejrer 50 års jubilæum. IFHP arbejder nu ud fra, at byudvikling ikke er
begrænset til havebykonceptets grundideer.
IFHP celebrates its 50th anniversary. The federation now works from the
outset that urban development is not restricted to the ideas of the garden city
movement.

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How to balance the needs of a billion people

  • 1. 32 AROMAR REVI HOW TO BALANCE THE DESIRES OF 1.6 BILLION PEOPLE INTERVIEW | HENNING THOMSEN BANGALORE w India is in the midst of an urbanization process where 800 mil- lion people will eventually live in cities – and yet, as many will continue to live in rural areas. The overwhelming scale of the Indian situation is without parallel and requires new ways of planning, even new ways of educating planners. Aromar Revi joinedtheconversationonhousingandplanningfromhisoffice at the Indian Institute for Human Settlements in Bangalore, India.  What are the main issues we are facing in housing and planning today? I guess the context is probably the most important thing for us to understand. The context – and this also relates to East Asia and China – is that India is just starting on a dramatic journey, starting on what I would call the second largest urbanization in history. The largest one being the Chinese urbanization we have seen over the past 30 years or so. India is just about to start on that journey and most people in India, including professionals, planners and people in the housing sec- tor, have little sense of how that will play out and the scale of change that we can expect to see. IndiaisprettymuchatthepointChinawasin1982whenDengXia- oping went out on his famous tour of the world and the whole process of economic redevelopment and transition started in China. That said therearesignificantdifferences.ThefirstdifferenceisthatSouthAsia, unlikemanyotherpartsoftheworld,hashistorically hadamuchlower levelofurbanizationcomparedtoit’slevelofpercapitaincomeorlevel of development. This means that at the current point in time, much of South-Asia is still about 70% rural and 30% urban. So we are at a stage whereNorthAmericawasinthemid-19thcenturyandwhereLatin America was in the early 1920s and 1930s. But unlike North America Indien befinder sig midt i en urbaniseringsproces, der vil ende med, at 800 millioner mennesker kommer til at bo i byerne – og alligevel vil lige så mange fortsat bo på landet. Situatio- nens overvældende omfang er uden sidestykke og kræver helt nye måder at planlægge på og sågar helt nye planuddannelser. Aromar Revi har talt med os om boligbyggeri og planlægning fra sit kontor på Indian Institute for Human Settlements i den indiske by Bangalore.  Hvad er de største udfordringer, når vi taler om boliger og plan- lægning i dag? Det vigtigste er nok at forstå konteksten. Sagen er den, at Indien – og det samme gælder Østasien og Kina – netop er ved at begive sig ud på en dramatisk rejse. Det drejer sig om det, jeg vil kalde den næststørste urbanisering i historien. Den største er den kinesiske urbanisering, vi har oplevet i de seneste ca. 30 år. Den rejse er Indien først nu ved at begive sig ud på, og de fleste indere, også akademikere, planlæggere og folk fra boligsektoren, har ingen begreb om, hvordan det vil komme til at udspille sig. De fatter simpelthen ikke de enorme forandringer, vi står overfor. Indien befinder sig nogenlunde der, hvor Kina var i 1982, da Deng Xiaoping begav sig ud på sin berømte verdensturné, og hele Kinas økonomiske regenererings- og forandringsproces tog sin begyndelse. Der er dog nogle afgørende forskelle. Den første er, at Sydasien sam- menlignet med mange andre steder i verden altid har haft en meget lav urbaniseringsgrad i forhold til den gennemsnitlige indkomst eller udviklingsniveauet. Det har medført, at meget af Sydasien stadig er omkring 70% land og 30% by. Så vi befinder os på det stadium, hvor Nordamerikavaribegyndelsenaf1920’erneog30’erne.Menimodsæt- ning til Nordamerika og Latinamerika, og måske selv Kina, vil Indien Efter flere år med midlertidig base i Storbritannien flyttes forbundet i oktober til Den Haag i Holland. After years of temporary residence in Great Britain the federation in October moves to The Hague in Holland. Krigens afslutning markerer et demografisk opsving i form af efterkrigstidens babyboom. The end of the war coincides with a substantial demographic baby boom. 1949 1950
  • 2. ARKITEKTUR DK 01 2013 33 Aromar Revi er direktør for Indian Institute for Human Settlements (IIHS) – Indiens første nationale universitet for forskning og innovation, som vil fokusere på de udfordringer, der er forbundet med urbaniseringen, vha. et integreret program af uddannelse, forskning, konsulentvirksomhed og rådgivning. Revi er kandidat fra IIT-Delhi og fra skolen for jura og ledelse ved universitetet i Delhi. Han er medlem af det Indisk-kinesiske Institut ved The New School i New York. Aromar Revi regnes som en af de førende eksperter i globale klimaforandringer, herunder især klimastrategier og -tilpasning. Han er desuden en af ophavsmændene til afsnittet om Urban Areas i IPCC’s 5. statusrapport (2014). Aromar Revi is the Director of the Indian Institute for Human Settlements (IIHS) – India’s first prospective National University for Research and Innovation to address challenges of urbanization through an integrated program of education, research, consulting and advisory services. He is an alumnus of IIT-Delhi and the Law and Management schools of the University of Delhi. He is also a Fellow of the India-China Institute at The New School, New York. Aromar Revi is considered a leading expert on global environmental change, especially on climate change adaptation and mitigation. He is one of the coordinating lead authors for the Urban Areas section of the IPCC 5th Assessment Report (2014). and Latin America, maybe even unlike China, India will probably never become predominantly urban for much of this century. Our process of urbanization will probably reach 50% at the same time as our population growth peaks. The Indian population is expected to peak at somewhere between 1.5 and 1.6 billion by 2050. At that time we will probably be 50% urban and 50% rural. This is important to understand because unlike North America, Latin America and maybe even China, this changes the nature of how we plan and what we plan for and who is involved in the process of plan- ning. The important thing to understand is the highly decentralized nature of Indian and South Asian settlement structures. India at this moment has 8000 urban centers, and it has 640,000 vil- lages. In other words, the number of villages is about 80-100 times the numberofurbancenters.Whatweexpecttoseehappenby2050,asthe Indian population starts to stabilize, is that the number of villages will still be one to two order of magnitude more than the urban centers. (...) The challenge of being able to plan and to create housing for such a large population, with this particular kind of (urban-rural) configu- ration, is very different from what you find pretty much anywhere else in the world. In 2050 India will be either the largest or second largest economy in the world. Currently we are number 5 or 6 depending on how you calculate. We will have a very large economy but India will still be relatively low on the per capita income scale. India will be a large economy, but a relatively poor country. And a large part of the population will be living within a decentralized settlement structure. A conventional view of development would expect you to move from a rural agrarian society into one that is industrially driven and from that you move into a service and postindustrial struc- ture. You are saying that India is behaving differently? Yes, those are the conventional stages of development. The thing about South-Asia – this is true of India, but possibly of Pakistan, Bangla- deshandSriLanka– isthatwehavemovedtoastagewheretheservice sector is actually the lead driver of the economy. In some senses we have skipped the industrial stage, at least as far as conventional theories of development is concerned, and moved to a different econo- mic structure. One of the big questions to emerge over the next 20 or 30 years is whether this economic structure is sustainable from the economic point of view. At the moment in India the agriculture and primary sector accounts for about 15% of the GDP, manufacturing is slightly more, about 16-17% and then the rest is made up of aldrig gå hen og blive overvejende urbant. Vores urbaniseringsrate vil sandsynligvis nå op på 50%, samtidig med at befolkningstilvæksten topper. Man forventer, at den indiske befolkning vil nå op på et sted mellem 1,5 og 1,6 milliarder i 2050. Til den tid vil vi så være 50% urbane og 50% rurale. Det er meget vigtigt at forstå, for i modsætning til Nordamerika og Latinamerika, og måske selv Kina, har det stor betydning for, hvordan vi planlægger, og hvad vi planlægger for, og hvem der skal være med i planlægningsprocessen.  I den forbindelse skal man selvfølgelig være opmærksom på den decentralisering, der kendetegner Indiens og Sydasiens bosættelses- mønser.Somdeternu,harIndien8000bycentreog640.000landsbyer. Der er altså 80-100 gange flere landsbyer end byer. Det, vi forventer, vil ske i 2050, når den indiske befolkning begynder at stabilisere sig, er, at der vil blive ved med at være nogenlunde det samme forhold mellem antallet af landsbyer og antallet af byer. (…) Den udfordring, der ligger i at skulle planlægge og bygge boliger til så stor en befolkning med den helt særlige (urban-rurale) sammensætning, er helt anderledes end det, man finder andre steder i verden. I 2050 vil Indien være den stør- ste eller den næststørste økonomi i verden. I øjeblikket er vi nummer 5 eller 6, afhængig af måden, man regner det ud på. Vi vil have en meget stor økonomi, men Indien vil stadig være et relativt fattigt land. Og en stor del af befolkningen vil bo decentraliseret. Hvis man så på udviklingen med konventionelle briller, ville man forvente, at I ville bevæge jer fra et ruralt landbrugssamfund til et industrisamfund og derfra videre til et service- og postindustrielt samfund. Men du siger, det er anderledes i Indien?   Ja,deterdekonventionelleudviklingsstadier.MeniSydasien–dether gælder for Indien, men også for Pakistan, Bangladesh og Sri Lanka – er vi nået til et stadium, hvor servicesektoren faktisk er den største øko- nomiske vækstgenerator. På en måde har vi sprunget det industrielle stadium over, i hvert fald i konventionel forstand, og bevæget os videre til en anden økonomisk struktur. Etafdestorespørgsmål,somvilmeldesigidenærmeste20eller30 år, er, om denne økonomiske struktur er bæredygtig fra en økonomisk synsvinkel.Somdeternu,tegnerlandbrugetogprimærsektorensigfor ca. 15% af bruttonationalproduktet, produktionen sig for lidt mere, en 16-17%, og resten udgøres af den resterende sekundære sektor og den tertiære sektor. Spørgsmålet er, om man kan producere nok varer til så stor en befolkning med så lille en produktionssektor. Og det har en enorm betydning for, hvilken form for industriel udvikling, man får, og selvfølgelig for hvordan økonomien og erhvervssammensætningen bliveridestorbyerogbyer,manbygger.Ogdetharsåigenendramatisk Den europæiske union stiftes som Kul- og Stålunionen, og muligheden for et bedre samarbejde på tværs af grænser bliver en realitet. Seks medlemslande indgår fra start. The European Coal and Steel Union is established and better cross-border collaboration becomes a reality. The Union has six member states. Le Corbusier opfører Unité d’Habitation i Marseille, Frankrig. L’Unité d’Habitation in Marseille, France, by architect Le Corbusier, is built. 1951 1953
  • 3. 34 the tertiary or services sector. One key policy question is if you can provide enough goods for such a large population with such a small manufacturing sector. This has implications on the kind of industrial development you have and of course on the economic and occupational structure of cities and towns that you build. In turnthishasadramaticimpactonhowyouactuallyplanandwhatkind of housing you require and where you will require it. This is fundamentally different from historical developments in other parts of the world. At one end people could claim this is a form of underdevelopment. On the other hand, we can look at this as a tremendous opportunity. One hundred years ago, when the IFHP was established, theworldhadabout3billionpeople.Bythetimewereach2050wemay have about 8 or 9 billion people. We move from a situation in which the world was largely empty to a situation where the world is really quite full. Our externalities and the resources that we are consuming both on thebiomasssidebutalsointermsofcarbonandgreenhouse gasses are starting to affect not only our individual cities and regions, buttheyareactuallyaffectingtheglobalclimate systemandthat'sreading back into the way our own cultures and civilizations are able to develop. This will have a huge impact on planning, will it not? Absolutely. In fact the challenge for us in Asia, and India in particular, is that we actually filled up as a subcontinent much fasterthanmanyotherpartsoftheworld,becausewealready had a large population base. When India became independent in 1947 we were about 300 million people. Now we are already 1.2 billion. We will be 1.5 billion in another 30 years or so. In a sense our landscape, both cultural and otherwise, is full of people, which means that we have some serious constraints we have to consider. The most important constraint is land and with it food. The second most important constraint is water. Both food and water become things that villages and cities will struggle with. Cities as we know them cannot survive unless these services are provided to them. You cannot get the economic growth or the kind of development that you would expect at 8-10% like China, unless theses resources are available. Constraints on land and soil, on water, and then on energy are going to be very important in determining whether the sustainable transition is possible or not. When you have conflicts about water you have to manage it locally. Similarly renewable energy is not concentrated, it spans the entire landscape. If you take wind, like in Denmark, you know the wind is both on-shore and off-shore. It is not present only in a particular town. Renewablesaredistributedacrossthelandscape,ofteninthreedimen- sions, which means that you have a sort of resource landscape, which matches, at least in South-Asia, the decentralized settlement structure. This is a tremendous opportunity because in some senses your production and consumption systems are decentralized and your resource flows are also decentralized. If you bring these things together you can actually connect them effectively using net- worked technologies. (...) Looking at the compatibility between the settlements and the locally distributed resources, you just described, the scale of the settlements must be the tipping point for whether this works out or not? Absolutely. That is a central question. Hidden in this question are indflydelsepå,hvordanmanfaktiskplanlægger,oghvilkenslagsboliger der er brug for, og hvor der er brug for dem.    På den måde er situationen væsensforskellig fra den historiske udvikling andre steder i verden. Man kan godt sige, at det er en form for underudvikling. På den anden side ser vi det som en enestående chance. For hundrede år siden, da IFHP blev grundlagt, var Jordens befolkningpåca.3mia.mennesker.Nårvinårtil2050,vilviformentlig være 8-9 mia. Vi bevæger os fra en situation, hvor verden var næsten tom, til en situation, hvor den faktisk er temmelig fuld. Vores eksternaliteter og de ressourcer, vi forbruger, både med hen- syn til biomasse og sådan noget som CO2 og drivhusgasser, er begyndt ikke blot at påvirke de enkelte byer og regioner, men også hele det glo- bale system, og det påvirker så igen måden, vores kulturer og civilisa- tioner udvikler sig på. Det må da have store konsekvenser for planlægningen? Absolut. Og faktisk er problemet for os i Asien, ikke mindst i Sydasien og Indien, at vi som subkontinent blev meget hurtigere fyldt op end mange andre dele af verden, fordi vi allerede havde en stor befolkning. Da Indien blev selvstændigt i 1947, var vi ca. 300 mio. mennesker. Nu er vi allerede 1,2 mia. Om ca. 30 år vil vi være 1,5 mia. Man kan sige, at voreslandskab,bådekultureltogpåandenmåde,erfuldtafmennesker, og det betyder, at vi har nogle alvorlige begrænsninger at tage højde for. Den vigtigste mangelvare er jorden og dermed selvfølgelig føde- varer. Den næstvigtigste er vandet. Både mad og vand er noget, som landsbyerne og byerne vil komme til at kæmpe om. Byerne, som vi kender dem, kan ikke overleve, hvis ikke de bliver forsynet med mad og vand. Man kan ikke få den forventede økonomiske vækst eller en udvikling på 7-8-9-10% ligesom Kina, med mindre man har adgang til de ressourcer. Manglen på jord og vand og derefter på energi vil få stor betydning for, om det lykkes at skabe en bæredygtig overgang eller ej. Når der opstår strid om vandet, er man nødt til at klare det lokalt. Tilsvarende er vedvarende energi ikke koncentreret bestemte steder, menspredtudoverlandet.Tagermanf.eks.vindenergi,findesdenbåde til lands og til vands. Vinden er ikke begrænset til en bestemt by. Den vedvarende energi er fordelt over hele landet, ofte i tre dimensioner, hvilket betyder, at man faktisk står med en slags ressourcelandskab, som, i hvert fald i sydasiatisk sammenhæng, passer til bebyggelsens decentraliserede karakter. Det giver os en enestående mulighed, fordi produktions- og forbrugssystemet på mange måder er decentraliseret, og hvis man bringer de to sammen, kan man faktisk forbinde dem gan- ske effektivt ved hjælp af netværksteknologier. (...) Når man har den kompatibilitet mellem bebyggelsesmønstret og de jævnt fordelte ressourcer, du lige har beskrevet, så er det vel bebyggelsernes omfang, der afgør, om det kan lade sig gøre eller ej? Ja, helt sikkert. Det er et vigtigt spørgsmål. Spørgsmålet bygger på de store antagelser, vi har om byudviklingen. F.eks. er en af de tvivlsomme forstillinger, vi gør os, at når vi når et højt lønniveau, vil mellem 5 og 10% af befolkningen leve af landbrug. Jeg tror, vi skal spørge os selv: Hvordan skal vi kunne brødføde 1,5 mia. mennesker, hvis kun 5-10% af befolkningenerbeskæftigetmedatfremstilledefødevarer,derskaltil? I Kina er de meget opmærksomme på det problem, for de har set, hvad der skete, da Sovjetunionen kollapsede. Kollapset havde ikke bare med den kolde krig og våbenkapløbet at gøre. Det handlede om, at Rusland ikke var i stand til at brødføde sig selv. Forbundet fejrer 40 års jubilæum med sloganet “Life Begins at Forty”. The federation celebrates its 40th anniversary under the slogan “Life Begins at Forty.” 1953 1954 Asian Regional body of the International Federation for Housing and Town Planning (EAROPH) stiftes. EAROPH er en gren af forbundet, som primært beskæftiger sig med byplanmæssige udfordringer på det asiatiske kontinent. The Asian Regional body of the International Federation for Housing and Town Planning (EAROPH) is founded. EAROPH primarily focuses on urban challenges on the Asian continent.
  • 4. ARKITEKTUR DK 01 2013 35 the big assumptions that we make about the urban development. For example, one of the critical assumptions that we make today is that once you reach a high-income level you may have between 5 and 10% of the population making a living from agriculture. The question I think we need to ask is: How will you feed 1.5 billion people with just 5-10% of a population making the produce to feed them? China is very engaged with this question, because they have looked at what happe- nedwiththecollapseoftheSovietUnion.Structurallythecollapsewas not only about the Cold War and the arms race. It was about Russia being unable to feed itself. And this is where China might be heading today, with limited land to grow crops on, is it not? Exactly.Chinaisveryconcernedaboutthis.Theyaretryingtoin­crease productivity tremendously, especially in the heartland of China. How do you do that? You crop more intensively and you bring water. Water is coming from afar and of course this was what the Three Gorges Dam was about and what the interbasin transfer from the Tibetan plateau to Northern China will be about. You conserve water and Risikerer Kina ikke, at det samme kommer til ske for dem pga. manglen på landbrugsjord? Jo, præcis. De gør meget ud af at højne produktiviteten, ikke mindst i det centrale Kina. Og hvordan gør man så det? Man intensiverer dyrk- ningen af jorden, og man tilfører mere vand. Vandet kommer langvejs- fra, og det er det, der ligger til grund for De Tre Slugters Dæmning og det store projekt, der skal lede vand fra den tibetanske højslette til det nordlige Kina. Man sparer på vandet og gør mange andre ting, og man prøver at sikre sig, at systemerne er cykliske, så næringsstofferne bli- ver genanvendt. Men jeg tror, det, Kina har indset for længe siden, er, at hvis de vil sikre, at befolkningen i det centrale Kina har mad nok, slår deres egen produktion ikke til. Det er derfor, Kina de seneste 15 år eller derom- kringharengageretsigsåmegetiproduktionenaffødevarer,mineraler og tømmer både i Afrika og Latinamerika, hvor der stadig er ret store uudviklede landområder. Kinas fodaftryk er gået hen og blevet globalt, når det gælder resourcekontrol og -udvinding. (…) I modsætning til i Rusland og Kina er der stadig mange bønder i Indien. Noget af det, man frygtede i Rusland med bl.a. Perestrojka, var, at der ikke ville være 1958 1960 Efter flere navneændringer i forbundets levetid bliver IFHP nu det officielle navn. After having gone through several different names in its lifetime, the IFHP eventually becomes the name of the federation. Europa oplever i 1960’erne en højkonjunkturperiode. Højkonjunkturen medfører en stigning i beskæftigelsen i offentlige erhverv, og en reel urbanisering finder sted. Throughout the 1960s Europe experiences a period of economic boom resulting in both a rise in public employment and increased urbanization.
  • 5. 36 you try and make sure that your systems are cy clical so nutrients ­ are recycled. But I think that what China has recognized a long time back is if they want to protect the food security of their heartland they cannot only do that with domestic production. And that's why for the last 15 years or so, both in Africa and Latin America where they still have a fairly large amounts of land available, China is taking very strong positions in establishing food production, mineral and timber production. China's footprint now is a global footprint in terms of resource control and extraction. (...) Unlike Russia and China, India still has a very strong peasant population. One of the problems that Russiafaced,whenPerestroikaandotherthingsstarted,wasthatthey did not actually have enough people to go back and farm the land. India still has that culture in place and we still have large num- bers of people who are able to grow and farm things. So when we are look­ing at long-term sustainability I think it is a critical and necessary condition that people are able to work the land and do it with local resources. But of course this does not mean that their lives are like that of their grandparents. The quality of their lives could be dramatically better.Youalso don’thaveto havea systemthatiscompletelydistorted by subsidies to make this happen and you have to develop an economic system that is able to balance these questions out. I think India has a tremendous opportunity to be able to practice sustainable agriculture and green production, and also maintain a significant proportion of our population on the land. We don't know what that proportion precisely is, but my guess is it is 15%, to 25%. It means that if we have a quarter of our population involved in sustainable growing and green manufacturing using decentralized systems then the economies of scales of those settle- ments and those places become quite different. (...) What about the physical environment in all of this? Are you envi- sioning a situation in India where people would not in the same scale as in many other places move to cities to better their life situations, because they can actually better it locally? Possibly so and this is what we will find out in the next 15 or 20 years. One of the fascinating conundrums of India and South-Asia is that we have actually had very low migration rates over the last 20 or 30 years. In fact net urban-rural migration rates have been either stagnating or mennesker nok til at dyrke jorden. Indien har stadig en landbrugskultur, og vi har stadig masser af mennesker, som kan dyrke jorden. Så hvis systemet fortsat skal være bæredygtigt, tror jeg, det er en vigtig og nødvendig betingelse, at folk er i stand til at dyrke jorden og gøre det med landets egne ressourcer. Men det betyder selvfølgelig ikke, at de skal leve på samme måde som deres bedsteforældre. Deres livskvalitet kan blive forbedret dramatisk. Man behøver heller ikke have et system, der er helt forvredet af støt- teordninger, man er nødt til at udvikle et økonomisk system, der kan afbalancere den slags. Jeg synes, det her er en enestående mulighed for Indien til at skabe et landbrug og en produktion, der er bæredygtig og grøn, med en stor del af befolkningen stadig boende i landdistrikterne. Vi ved ikke, hvor stor en del, det kommer til at handle om, men min fornemmelse er, at det i hvert fald ikke bliver 10%, snarere op imod 25%. Det betyder, at hvis en fjerdedel af befolkningen er beskæftiget med bæredygtigt landbrug og bæredygtig produktion i decentraliserede systemer, så vil økonomien og bebyggelsesmønstret være et helt andet. (...) Hvad så meddetfysiskemiljø? Forestiller du dig en situation,hvor folk ikke i samme omfang flytter ind til byerne for at forbedre deres levestandard, fordi de faktisk kan forbedre den der, hvor de er? Sådan kan det meget vel blive, men det får vi at se i de kommende 15 eller 20 år. En af de mærkelige ting ved Indien og Sydasien er, at vi fak- tisk har haft en meget lav migrationsrate i de seneste 20-30 år. Faktisk har den samlede migration mellem by og land været enten uændret eller ligefrem faldende. Dette strider mod den almindelige antagelse, og det er der en grund til. Én årsag er selvfølgelig kulturen. Vi er stadig langthenadvejenetruralt,agrariskogoraltsamfund,ogdet,vioplever og vil opleve i løbet af de kommende 20-30 år, er overgangen fra det og til et samfund, der er forholdsvis urbant, men ikke helt. Den dårlige livskvalitet, der kendetegner livet i byen, det høje pris- niveau, de dårlige faciliteter og den utilstrækkelige infrastruktur, man- gelen på jobs og problemet med at bevare forbindelsen til den kultur, man føler sig knyttet til, gør, at byerne simpelthen ikke er attraktive. TagermandensydligestatKerala,ellerGoafordensagsskyld,præ- ges de af det, vi kalder ‘rur-banisering’, hvor man faktisk ingen store bycentre har, men snarere et kontinuum mellem landsbyen og bycen- Den amerikanske journalist og aktivist Jane Jacobs udgiver bogen The Death and Life of Great American Cities. I bogen argumenterer hun for, at det 20. årh.s byplanlægning i USA kun har været til glæde for et fåtal af byens beboere. The American journalist and activist Jane Jacobs publishes her book The Death and Life of Great American Cities. In it she describes how urban development in the US did not respect the needs of most city-dwellers. Store udstykninger af jord i parceller til byggeri og bolig skaber parcelhuskvarterer i mange større byers periferi. Bilismens fremmarch skaber ligeledes bilafhængige samfund, der medfører større byers spredning. Suburbanization is spreading on the peripheries of many larger cities in the Western world. The rise of automobilization creates car-dependent societies and increases suburbanization and urban sprawl. 1961 1962
  • 6. ARKITEKTUR DK 01 2013 37 declining. This is contrary to the general perception and there is a reason for that. One reason of course is the culture. We are very much still a rural, agrarian and oral culture and I think the big thing that we will see over the next 20 to 30 years is the transition from that to one that is sort of significantly urban but not completely so. Because of the poor quality of life they offer, the high cost of living and having to cope with poor services and dysfunctional infrastruc- ture, lack of jobs and opportunities of being able to stay connected to a culture you are familiar with, cities simply aren’t attractive. If you take the southern state Kerala or Goa, what you find is something that we call ‘rurbanisation’, where you don’t have any large urban centers, but rather a continuum between village and the urban areas. Densities are quite high, much of the development is linear or clustered, and the difference between a village and a large urban center in terms of quality of life, in terms of access, in terms of most of the things that you value in a service-oriented society, is not significant. From your village house within half an hour you would be in an urban center where you could go to university or college. In the vil- lage you would have a better quality of life in terms of environment,you haveaccesstothephone,totheInternet,totelevision. You are much better off in your village which in some senses would be like a small town, because your village may have 10,000 people or 20,000 people inside it. (...) Something we have come across in our conversations on planning, and this is maybe particularly a European phenomenon, is a wish forlessplanning.ButwhenwetalktopeopleinsaySouthAmerica, theydisagree.Moreplanningisneededtheysay.IntheIndiancon- text, is there a need for more planning and what kind of planning are you envisioning? I think we have a serious problem with the kind of planning that we have in India today. We are practicing a form of planning that came out of Europe or out of a European imagination which is about 50 or 60 years old. It absolutely does not fit with the structure of how our soci- eties are organized. Also most of it is a-temporal, it is unable to cope with things that are changing very rapidly. It came from a condition in whichcitieswerealreadylargely built.Nowcitiesaregrowingatarateof 2-3% a year or even faster. Most such cities were designed for an economy thatwasclosetosteadystate,growingmaybe2-3%ayear.Wenowhave economies that are growing at 7-8% a year. WhenEbenezerHowardandPatrickGeddesexperienced in the west in theearly20thcentury,theeconomiccircum­stances were different. We absolutely do not need the kind of planning thatwearepracticingtodayandthat’sthereasonwhywe'reinthemiddle of building this national University (Indian Institute of Human Set­ tlements) that is going to address the challenge of dealing with the development of settlements over the next 50 or 100 years in this part of our world. We are educating a new generation of profes- sionals who will help manage this urban transformation and we hope some will go into politics, help in the management of cities, into the private sector and civil society. This cannot happen with a single specialised profession, it has to happen across the entire system, so we are not just educating planners or planners who think differently, but actually educating an entire new generation of Indians to enable the urban transition to happen. tret. Tætheden her er ret høj, meget af bebyggelsen er nærmest lineær eller formet som klynger, og der er ikke så stor forskel på en landsby og et større bycentrum, når det gælder livskvalitet og nærheden til facili- teter eller andre af de ting, man lægger vægt på i et service-orienteret samfund. Fra dit hus i landsbyen kan du komme ind til byen på en halv time. Hvis du vil gå på universitetet eller en anden læreanstalt, kan du det. Miljøet i landsbyen giver dig den samme livskvalitet, eller måske meget bedre, du har adgang til telefon, internet, tv. Når det gælder kontakten til andre, er du meget bedre stillet, hvis du bor i en landsby. Landsbyen vil på mange måder minde om en mindre by, for landsbyen har måske 10-20.000 indbyggere. (...) En ting, vi har strejfet i vores samtaler om planlægning, og det er måske først og fremmest et europæisk fænomen, er behovet for mindre planlægning. Men hvis man f.eks. spørger folk i Sydame- rika, så er det ikke noget, de kan genkende. De synes netop, der er behov for mere planlægning. Hvordan er det i Indien, er der behov for mere planlægning, og hvad slags planlægning er der i så fald brug for? Efter min mening er den planlægning, vi har i Indien, meget problema- tisk. Vi praktiserer en form for planlægning, der stammer fra Europa eller fra en europæisk tankegang, der er 50-60 år gammel. Den passer overhovedet ikke til den måde, vores samfund er opbygget på. Des- uden er den mere eller mindre atemporær, den dur ikke, hvis vilkå- rene ændrer sig meget hurtigt. Den blev til i en kontekst, hvor byerne allerede var bygget. Nu vokser byerne med 2-3% om året eller endnu hurtigere. Størstedelen af den blev skabt til en økonomi, der var tæt på stagnerende, måske med en stigning på 2-3% om året. Men nu vokser vores økonomier med 7-8% om året. Dengang Ebenezer Howard og Patrick Geddes og andre lavede deres planlægning i begyndelsen af det 20. århundrede, var de økono- miske omstændigheder nogle andre. Så vi har overhovedet ikke brug for den form for planlægning, vi ser i øjeblikket, og det er også derfor, vi har startet det nationale universitet (Indian Institute of Human Settlements), hvor vi skal se på de udfordringer, det er at skulle hånd- tere de kommende 50 eller 100 års bebyggelse i denne del af verden. Vi uddanner en ny generation af akademikere, som vil være med til at styre dette, og som er villige til at gå ind i politik, i ledelsen af byerne, i den private sektor, i den offentlige sektor, så vi kan få det hele til at fungere. Det er ikke noget, en enkelt profession kan klare alene, det kræver hele systemets medvirken. Derfor uddanner vi ikke bare plan- læggere eller planlægger, der tænker anderledes, men faktisk en helt ny generation af indere, der forhåbentlig bliver færdige tids nok til at kunne sikre, at denne forvandling kommer til at falde heldigt ud.  Mange regionale organisationer udspringer af IFHP. Det bliver i fremtiden en opgave for IFHP at bevare forholdet og samarbejdet med disse. Several regional offsprings develop out of the IFHP. A future task for the IFHP will be to retain relationships and collaboration with the regional offsprings. 1963 1966 IFHP fejrer 50 års jubilæum. IFHP arbejder nu ud fra, at byudvikling ikke er begrænset til havebykonceptets grundideer. IFHP celebrates its 50th anniversary. The federation now works from the outset that urban development is not restricted to the ideas of the garden city movement.