Presentation for the lecture Statistics Analysis

1. Suicidal Incidents in South Korea
Anna Kim, Elham B., Ho Jun Paik, Jun Young Park, Jung Hoon Lee

2. 1. THE CONTENT OF THE
PRESENTATION
Introduction
Literature review
Analysis, research findings
Variables (IV, CV, DV) and descriptive
statistics and hypothesis
Regression
Conclusion

3. what we need to
learn
about SUICIDE?

4. SUICIDE
PERMANENT solution for a TEMPORARY problem

5. KOREA HAS ONE
OF THE HIGHEST
SUICIDE RATES
IN OECD
COUNTRIES FOR 11
YEARS *
also graying (aging)
Korean society…
Urgency for South
Korean society

7. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-
3284587/Learn-dead-day-Suicidal-people-locked-
coffins-bizarre-death-experience-schools-South-
Korea-40-people-kill-day.html

8. SUICIDE is 3rd leading cause of DEATH
among young people*
CAN SUICIDE BE PREVENTED?
a) Never, it is impossible
b) May be sometimes
c) Yes, it is possible but only in ADVANCE of acute risk
d) Yes, even up to the last moment

9. SUICIDE is 3rd leading cause of DEATH
among young people*
CAN SUICIDE BE PREVENTED?
a) Never, it is impossible
b) May be sometimes
c) Yes, it is possible but only in ADVANCE of acute risk
d) Yes, even up to the last moment
According to NATCOM Conference 2015*

10. Most suicides are planned They are not
just impulsive events
When people are depressed they are
NOT thinking, feeling normally. They
need HELP
Suicide
is preventable

11. DEPRESSIO
N
PEOPLE at higher risk
who has problems with:
Law
Depression
Being neglected and
abused
Alcohol and drugs
Psychological problems,
perfectionists
Etc.

13. The problem

14. 2. Our Questions
What are the factors cause suicidal rates?
How can we change the situation? What should we start with?
Hypothesis:
- People with higher level of education tend to have higher
suicidal rates
NULL : Level of education does not have any effect on suicidal
rates

15. 3. ANALYSIS

16. Suicidal incident
(DV)
Hypothesis:
- People with higher level of education
tend to have higher suicidal rates
- People with higher level of education
tend to have lower suicidal rates
NULL : Level of education does not
have any effect on suicidal rates
IV : level of education
DV : suicidal incident
CV :
age, income, number of family members,
drinking frequency, exercise frequency,
quality of nutrition, subjective image of
oneself
Level of education
(IV)

17. Hypothesis indicator Source*
Age
Older people, more
suicide
1~99
Korea National Health &
Nutrition Examination
Survey
713 questions, 8018
observations in total
4507 observations after
eliminating blanks
Income
Lower income, more
suicide
Scale of 4
Low – many
Household size
Smaller family, more
suicide
Scale of 9
1~9
Drinking frequency
More drinking, more
suicide
Scale of 6
No – many
Exercise frequency
Less exercise, more
suicide
Scale of 8
0~7 days a week
Quality of nutrition Less meals, more suicide
Scale of 4
Plenty – insufficient
Subjective figure Fatter, more suicide
Scale of 5
Skinny - fat

18. Education
Persons with higher school attainment had
significantly increased odds ratios of dying from a
suicide rather than a natural cause. Individual with
higher educational achievement may be more prone
to suicide risk when facing failures, public shame, and
high premorbid functioning.
Source :
M. Pompili,M. Vichi,Ping Qin,M. Innamorati,D. De
Leo,P. Girardi, Does the level of education influence
completed suicide? A nationwide register study
May 2013, Pages 437–440
Hypothesis
: Higher level of education , higher suicidal incidents
Education
Mean 2.812292
Standard Error 0.016293
Median 3
Mode 3
Standard Deviation 1.093823
Sample Variance 1.196449
Kurtosis -1.02746
Skewness -0.52631
Range 3
Maximum 4
Minimum 1
Sum 12675
Count 4507
Geometric Mean 2.528435
Harmonic Mean 2.186714
AAD 0.906902
MAD 1
IQR 2

19. There’s no significant data for this
control variables in other conducted
researches related to the size of the
house and the risk of attempting suicide.
Hypothesis
: Smaller the household size, high rate
of suicidal risks
Household size
Mean 3.202352
Standard Error 0.018309
Median 3
Mode 4
Standard Deviation 1.229127
Sample Variance 1.510753
Kurtosis -0.05621
Skewness 0.271914
Range 7
Maximum 8
Minimum 1
Sum 14433
Count 4507
Geometric Mean 2.938519
Harmonic Mean 2.638196
AAD 1.007532
MAD 1
IQR 2
Household size

20. Suicide rates for teens and young adults
increased dramatically from 1950 to 1990 (S.
Kachur,1995).
Source :
Suicide in the United States 1980-1991,
Violence Surveillance Summary Series, No. 1 ,
S. Patrick Kachur, MD, MPH, Lloyd B. Potter,
PhD, MPH, Stephen P. James, Kenneth E.
Powell, MD, MPH
Hypothesis
: Older people are more likely to commit suicide
Age
Mean 46.56446
Standard Error 0.255441
Median 46
Mode 41
Standard Deviation 17.14885
Sample Variance 294.083
Kurtosis -0.79332
Skewness 0.113559
Range 80
Maximum 92
Minimum 12
Sum 209866
Count 4507
Geometric Mean #NUM!
Harmonic Mean 39.18044
AAD 14.31558
MAD 13
IQR 26
Age

22. The suicide rate is substantially elevated among
alcoholics and that suicide is a cause of death for a
substantial percentage of alcoholics (Pompili, 2010).
Source :
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2010 Apr; 7(4):
1392–1431
Hypothesis
: More alcohol consumption, higher rate of suicidal
rates
Alcohol Consumption
Mean 3.187486
Standard Error 0.023212
Median 3
Mode 4
Standard Deviation 1.558347
Sample Variance 2.428445
Kurtosis -1.18123
Skewness 0.064451
Range 5
Maximum 6
Minimum 1
Sum 14366
Count 4507
Geometric Mean 2.738142
Harmonic Mean 2.270033
AAD 1.371047
MAD 1
IQR 2
Alcohol Consumption

23. Lower income, simply to say lower social class or
those who feel they are socioeconomic disadvantage
are prone to vulnerable for suicide and suicidal
attempts
Source :
Beautrais AL, Collings SCD, Ehrhardt P, et al. 2005.
Suicide Prevention: A review of evidence of risk and
protective factors, and points of effective intervention.
Wellington: Ministry of Health. P 39.
Hypothesis
: Higher the income, lower the rate of suicidal incident
Income
Mean 2.519192
Standard Error 0.016598
Median 3
Mode 2
Standard Deviation 1.114315
Sample Variance 1.241698
Kurtosis -1.35149
Skewness -0.01501
Range 3
Maximum 4
Minimum 1
Sum 11354
Count 4507
Geometric Mean 2.235417
Harmonic Mean 1.942254
AAD 0.995746
MAD 1
IQR 2
Income

24. Exercise promotes a positive emotional-well
being that participating at least in low-intensity
activity demonstrates reduced risk of suicidal
behavior.
Source :
Lindsay A. Taliaferro, MS, MPH; Barbara A.
Rienzo, PhD; R. Morgan Pigg Jr, HSD, MPH; M.
David Miller, PhD; Virginia J. Dodd, PhD, MPH
Hypothesis
: More exercise, reduced suicidal behavior
Exercise
Mean 2.037941
Standard Error 0.024524
Median 1
Mode 1
Standard Deviation 1.646427
Sample Variance 2.710722
Kurtosis 2.379803
Skewness 1.726969
Range 7
Maximum 8
Minimum 1
Sum 9185
Count 4507
Geometric Mean 1.603866
Harmonic Mean 1.360934
AAD 1.262881
MAD 0
IQR 2
Exercise Frequency

25. Nutrition can have an impact on mental health as well
as physical health. Insufficient nutrition affects our
depression and feeling weak and this causes more
suicide.
Source :
Li Y, Zhang J, McKeown R. Cross-sectional
assessment of diet quality in individuals with a
lifetime history of attempted suicide. Psychiatry
Res 2009; 165:111-9.
Hypothesis
: Better nutrition, lower suicidal rates.
Nutrition
Mean 1.598624
Standard Error 0.009065
Median 2
Mode 2
Standard Deviation 0.608585
Sample Variance 0.370375
Kurtosis 0.756433
Skewness 0.721039
Range 3
Maximum 4
Minimum 1
Sum 7205
Count 4507
Geometric Mean 1.488458
Harmonic Mean 1.388621
AAD 0.547754
MAD 1
IQR 1
Nutrition (Diet)

26. It is more vulnerable committing suicide to those who
think they are not socially fit due to their own
perception of their body figures. Results indicate that
body satisfaction, as measured by the perception of
being overweight, has strong impact on all suicidal
behaviors.
Source
D. Daveb, I. Rashad, Overweight status, self-
perception, and suicidal behaviors among adolescent,
May 2009, pages 1685-1691
Hypothesis
: Perception of oneself being fatter, higher suicide
incident.
Subjective figure
Mean 3.262037
Standard Error 0.013818
Median 3
Mode 3
Standard Deviation 0.927646
Sample Variance 0.860527
Kurtosis 0.028355
Skewness -0.35497
Range 4
Maximum 5
Minimum 1
Sum 14702
Count 4507
Geometric Mean #NUM!
Harmonic Mean 2.881775
AAD 0.746476
MAD 1
IQR 1
Subjective figure
(Perception of oneself)

27. Regression
coeff b s.e. Wald p-value exp(b) lower upper
INTERCEPT -1.64996 0.607554 7.375286 0.006613 0.192057
EDUCATION -0.27952 0.076838 13.23352 0.000275 0.756146 0.65043 0.879043
FAMILY -0.20244 0.067289 9.051585 0.002625 0.816732 0.715819 0.931871
AGE -0.00388 0.005085 0.582941 0.445162 0.996125 0.986248 1.006102
DRINKING 0.030692 0.044671 0.472039 0.49205 1.031167 0.944724 1.125521
INCOME -0.26887 0.071179 14.26886 0.000158 0.764241 0.664726 0.878654
EXERCISE -0.10042 0.052474 3.662436 0.055652 0.904455 0.816058 1.002428
NUTRITION 0.290662 0.108613 7.161669 0.007448 1.337313 1.08089 1.654567
FIGURE 0.115641 0.076082 2.310263 0.128522 1.122592 0.967078 1.303115

28. 4.Research findings
Education (p : 0.000275)
0
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.1
0.12
0.14
elemantry
education and
below
middle school
education and
below
high school
education and
below
college
education or
higher
elementary education and below 0.126807694
middle school education and below 0.09894473
high school education and below 0.076666454
college education or higher 0.059075457
Possibility:
higher education resulting in better jobs and
higher life quality
LEVEL OF EDUCATION
IV SUICIDAL INCIDENT
DV

29. Household size (p : 0.002625)
0
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.1
0.12
0.14
0.16
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
1 member 0.135590492
2 members 0.113563057
3 members 0.094721972
4 members 0.078729157
5 members 0.065241961
6 members 0.053930021
7 members 0.044486054
8 members 0.036631834
Possibility:
Bigger the household size, more responsibilities,
resulting less suicidal thoughts
more interaction among family members relieve
stress
They may also have higher possibility of family
members helping solve problems they face in life
HOUSEHOLD SIZE
IV SUICIDAL INCIDENT
DV

30. Age (p : 0.445162)
12 0.071615355
13 0.068656796
14 0.068656796
15 0.068656796
16 0.068656796
17 0.068656796
18 0.068656796
~
85 0.068656796
86 0.068656796
87 0.068656796
88 0.068656796
89 0.068656796
90 0.068656796
91 0.068656796
92 0.068656796
Possibility:
Factors such as sickness,
financial problems, or any
sort of feeling of burden
resulting in suicide or suicidal
thoughts
0
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.06
0.07
0.08
0.09
0.1
1 6 111621263136414651566166717681
Series2
AGE
IV
SUICIDAL INCIDENT
DV

31. Drinking (p : 0.49205)
0.15
0.155
0.16
0.165
0.17
0.175
0.18
0.185
0.19
has not
drunk
for the
past
year
less
than
once a
month
around
once a
month
2~4
times a
month
2~3
times a
week
more
than 4
times a
week
has not drunk for the past year 0.165305378
less than once a month 0.169583802
around once a month 0.173949884
2~4 times a month 0.178404225
2~3 times a week 0.182947367
more than 4 times a week 0.187579787
Possibility:
Drinking may be a result of stress, and that is
the reason why more drinking cause higher
suicidal rates
Or, more drinking causes have negative effects
on daily life, unable to function properly, and
also impulsive action
DRINKING FREQUENCY
IV SUICIDAL INCIDENT
DV

32. Income (p : 0.000158)
0
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.1
0.12
0.14
lowest
income
mid-low
income
mid-high
income
high income
lowest income 0.127991523
mid-low income 0.100859829
mid-high income 0.078958745
high income 0.061488125
Possibility:
Lower income generally causes more
hardships in life, resulting in higher
suicidal thoughts
Must think about the opposite, higher
income jobs might have higher
responsibilities
INCOME
IV
SUICIDAL INCIDENT
DV

33. Exercise (p : 0.055652)
0
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.1
0.12
0.14
0.16
exercise once a week 0.147998598
exercise twice a week 0.135778086
exercise thrice a week 0.124419287
exercise four times a week 0.113885511
exercise five times a week 0.104137492
exercise six times a week 0.095134274
exercise seven times a week 0.086833983
Possibility:
Exercise can be seen as healthy activity
More exercise causes healthier body and
mind
Spending more time being busy, less time to
be depressed?
EXERCISE FREQUENCY
IV SUICIDAL INCIDENT
DV

34. Nutrition (Diet) (p : 0.007448)
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
plenty to eat
in quantitiy
and
diversity
plenty to eat
in quantitiy,
not in
diversity
sometime
had hard
times eating
frequently
had hard
times eating
plenty to eat in quantitiy and
diversity
0.204353936
plenty to eat in quantitiy, not in
diversity
0.255662003
sometime had hard times eating 0.314756066
frequently had hard times eating 0.380526308
Possibility:
Lower income, lower life quality
Insufficient nutrition, depressed
and feeling weak
DIET
IV SUICIDAL INCIDENT
DV

35. Subjective figure (p : 0.128522)
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
very
skinny
slightly
skinny
normal slightly
fat
very fat
very skinny 0.177362146
slightly skinny 0.194868317
normal 0.213653629
slightly fat 0.233724152
very fat 0.255068516
Possibility:
(sitomania, addephagia)
unable to fit to modern standards, depression
tendency to not eat, weaker minds
SUBJECTIVE FIGURE
IV
SUICIDAL INCIDENT
DV

36. 5. Limitations
Definition of Logistics Regression
• Regression model where DV is
categorical
Definition of Binary DV
• DVs that have two values
Problems of Logistics Regression
• Treat the same set of problems as
‘Probit’ regression using similar
techniques

37. 5-2. Limitations Beyond
The possible ERROR in the data our team have
gathered by Korean National Health & Nutrition
Examination Survey
The AGE SAMPLE of this survey were NOT
applicable with the info of the survey
The study was NOT able to consider some factors
that can impact the suicide rate
• Mental Disease
• Prevalence Rate
• Accessibility of Medical Services

38. 6. Conclusion
Therefore, as opposed to our first thoughts
and expectations, our figures show that
the higher education actually leads to the
lower rate of suicidal incidents
Implications and Recommendation
Our studies show that…People who are more
dedicated to increase their quality of lives by
exercising more and
achieving higher education levels have lower
suicidal rates