SlideShare uma empresa Scribd logo
1 de 23
Baixar para ler offline
Market Mix Modeling:
Search For The Perfect Mix
5th Annual Big Data Conference (2017), Santa Clara
Amit Satsangi
More on MMM coming
soon. Slideshare.net
users please share your
thoughts, likes with me
(below)
Amit Satsangi
https://www.linkedin.com/in/amitsatsangi/
• Data Scientist (Consultant)
• 10 years: Analytics, IT and
Management experience
MS Physics  MS Comp Sci  MBA
3
Online channels and Revenue Allocation
Problem Definition
4
DisplayAds/Paid Search (SEM)
Email
Television Ads
Print Ads
PR Events
5
Attribution: Assigning $ Value to online events
Assisting Channel
(SEO)
Originating Channel
(SEM)
Assisting
Channel
(Email)
Activity Marketing
Spend
Day1:
User searches for a beauty
product, and clicks on Google Ad
SEM
($16)
Day 5:
Organic Search by user, lands on
the company website, provides
email, abandons cart
SEO
($5)
Day 6:
User receives email and clicks on
it, but still does not buy
Email
($0.05)
Day 7:
User sees ad on Facebook, clicks
on the ad, and makes a purchase
Revenue Generated $100
Facebook
Ad
($2.0)
Converting
Channel
(Facebook)
The Channel Attribution Problem
Multi-touch Attribution Modeling
7
Facebook
All
???
First-click
Last-click
Linear .
Time Decay
SEM
8
Attribution Models  Media Mix Optimization 
Issues With Multi-touch Attribution
Modeling
9
Soccer
How should we distribute the prize money of $10 Million amongst these players?
• Give 100% to the goalkeeper(First Click Attribution)?
• Give 100% to the player who hit the ball in the goal (Last click Attribution)?
• Something else???
Does This Sound Totally Absurd?
So, should Attribution Modeling
Let’s Talk About Sex
10
01
Detector
11
Marketing, Promotion & Advertising 101
Patterns of Advertising Response
12
02
01 Current Effect
Carryover Effect
03 Shape Effect.
04 CompetitiveEffects
37%
Dynamic Effects05
06
07
Content Effects
Media Effects
Temporal Effects of Advertising
13
Modeling Marketing Mix
Gerard J Tellis
14
Modeling The Market Mix Modeling Problem
Market Mix Modeling: A Few Techniques
15
Modeling Marketing Mix (Gerard J Tellis)
1. Basic Linear Model
A, P, R, Q: Email, Price, Display Ads, SEO, TV
Paid Search, Print
2. Multiplicative Model
3. Logit Model
Sales = 169 + 2.5*Email + 45*Price + 3.5*TV + …
16
Market Mix Modeling : Experimental Results
Input Data
17
Results From The Linear Regression Model
18
Results From The Log-linear Multiplicative Model (I)
19
Results From The Log-linear Multiplicative Model (II)
licative Model
20
21
Learning is the eye of the mind…
• Channel Attribution fails to provide even a minimally acceptable
solution to the problem of Media Mix Optimization (marketing
budget allocation)
• At best Channel Attribution can be used to determine the most
popular “channel paths” that the customers take (using Markov
Chains)
• Using MMM one can go to various levels of model complexity
depending on the effects that are desired: current vs. carryover
vs. shape etc. (see Tellis)
• With MMM the costs of building and keeping the model up-to-
date go up with complexity (accuracy)
• Any MMM model (even the most basic one) takes time and
effort to build – check for Heteroscedasticity, Collinearity,
Normality. Auto-correlation etc.
Learnings
22
It is not the answer that enlightens, but the question.
…Eugene Ionesco

Mais conteúdo relacionado

Mais procurados

Fit for Growth: PwC Top Issuses
Fit for Growth: PwC Top Issuses  Fit for Growth: PwC Top Issuses
Fit for Growth: PwC Top Issuses PwC
 
All about Programmatic buying(RTB), DSP,SSP, DMP & DCT - A complete digital ...
All about Programmatic buying(RTB), DSP,SSP, DMP & DCT -  A complete digital ...All about Programmatic buying(RTB), DSP,SSP, DMP & DCT -  A complete digital ...
All about Programmatic buying(RTB), DSP,SSP, DMP & DCT - A complete digital ...Karunakar Ravirala
 
Top 8 Insights From the 2018 Beauty, Health & Wellness Survey
Top 8 Insights From the 2018 Beauty, Health & Wellness SurveyTop 8 Insights From the 2018 Beauty, Health & Wellness Survey
Top 8 Insights From the 2018 Beauty, Health & Wellness SurveyL.E.K. Consulting
 
The Customer Data Platform, the Future of the Marketing Database
The Customer Data Platform, the Future of the Marketing DatabaseThe Customer Data Platform, the Future of the Marketing Database
The Customer Data Platform, the Future of the Marketing DatabaseRedEye
 
2019 Media and Entertainment Study
2019 Media and Entertainment Study2019 Media and Entertainment Study
2019 Media and Entertainment StudyL.E.K. Consulting
 
Product Strategy and Go to Market Model_Sample
Product Strategy and Go to Market Model_SampleProduct Strategy and Go to Market Model_Sample
Product Strategy and Go to Market Model_SampleParesh Baghel
 
B2B Sales Management Strategy
B2B Sales Management StrategyB2B Sales Management Strategy
B2B Sales Management StrategyMartin Korsin
 
Value proposition of analytics in P&C insurance
Value proposition of analytics in P&C insuranceValue proposition of analytics in P&C insurance
Value proposition of analytics in P&C insuranceGregg Barrett
 
Training Material - Competitive Intelligence - The Life Blood Of Strategy - A...
Training Material - Competitive Intelligence - The Life Blood Of Strategy - A...Training Material - Competitive Intelligence - The Life Blood Of Strategy - A...
Training Material - Competitive Intelligence - The Life Blood Of Strategy - A...Sadashiv Borgaonkar
 
Apache Hadoop Summit 2016: The Future of Apache Hadoop an Enterprise Architec...
Apache Hadoop Summit 2016: The Future of Apache Hadoop an Enterprise Architec...Apache Hadoop Summit 2016: The Future of Apache Hadoop an Enterprise Architec...
Apache Hadoop Summit 2016: The Future of Apache Hadoop an Enterprise Architec...PwC
 
Medical Cost Trend: Behind the Numbers 2017
Medical Cost Trend: Behind the Numbers 2017Medical Cost Trend: Behind the Numbers 2017
Medical Cost Trend: Behind the Numbers 2017PwC
 
360 Degree View Of Customer Powerpoint Presentation Slides
360 Degree View Of Customer Powerpoint Presentation Slides360 Degree View Of Customer Powerpoint Presentation Slides
360 Degree View Of Customer Powerpoint Presentation SlidesSlideTeam
 
Data Driven Decision Making Presentation
Data Driven Decision Making PresentationData Driven Decision Making Presentation
Data Driven Decision Making PresentationRussell Kunz
 
Digital Transformation Iniciative
Digital Transformation IniciativeDigital Transformation Iniciative
Digital Transformation IniciativeMiguel Mello
 
What is MarTech? - Infographic
What is MarTech? - InfographicWhat is MarTech? - Infographic
What is MarTech? - InfographicLisa Mothersille
 
Market Validation (Scale) (4).pdf
Market Validation (Scale) (4).pdfMarket Validation (Scale) (4).pdf
Market Validation (Scale) (4).pdfAneel Mitra
 
Social Media and Text Analytics
Social Media and Text AnalyticsSocial Media and Text Analytics
Social Media and Text AnalyticsRushikeshChikane2
 

Mais procurados (20)

Customer Journey Analytics and Big Data
Customer Journey Analytics and Big DataCustomer Journey Analytics and Big Data
Customer Journey Analytics and Big Data
 
Fit for Growth: PwC Top Issuses
Fit for Growth: PwC Top Issuses  Fit for Growth: PwC Top Issuses
Fit for Growth: PwC Top Issuses
 
All about Programmatic buying(RTB), DSP,SSP, DMP & DCT - A complete digital ...
All about Programmatic buying(RTB), DSP,SSP, DMP & DCT -  A complete digital ...All about Programmatic buying(RTB), DSP,SSP, DMP & DCT -  A complete digital ...
All about Programmatic buying(RTB), DSP,SSP, DMP & DCT - A complete digital ...
 
Top 8 Insights From the 2018 Beauty, Health & Wellness Survey
Top 8 Insights From the 2018 Beauty, Health & Wellness SurveyTop 8 Insights From the 2018 Beauty, Health & Wellness Survey
Top 8 Insights From the 2018 Beauty, Health & Wellness Survey
 
The Customer Data Platform, the Future of the Marketing Database
The Customer Data Platform, the Future of the Marketing DatabaseThe Customer Data Platform, the Future of the Marketing Database
The Customer Data Platform, the Future of the Marketing Database
 
2019 Media and Entertainment Study
2019 Media and Entertainment Study2019 Media and Entertainment Study
2019 Media and Entertainment Study
 
Product Strategy and Go to Market Model_Sample
Product Strategy and Go to Market Model_SampleProduct Strategy and Go to Market Model_Sample
Product Strategy and Go to Market Model_Sample
 
B2B Sales Management Strategy
B2B Sales Management StrategyB2B Sales Management Strategy
B2B Sales Management Strategy
 
Value proposition of analytics in P&C insurance
Value proposition of analytics in P&C insuranceValue proposition of analytics in P&C insurance
Value proposition of analytics in P&C insurance
 
Training Material - Competitive Intelligence - The Life Blood Of Strategy - A...
Training Material - Competitive Intelligence - The Life Blood Of Strategy - A...Training Material - Competitive Intelligence - The Life Blood Of Strategy - A...
Training Material - Competitive Intelligence - The Life Blood Of Strategy - A...
 
Apache Hadoop Summit 2016: The Future of Apache Hadoop an Enterprise Architec...
Apache Hadoop Summit 2016: The Future of Apache Hadoop an Enterprise Architec...Apache Hadoop Summit 2016: The Future of Apache Hadoop an Enterprise Architec...
Apache Hadoop Summit 2016: The Future of Apache Hadoop an Enterprise Architec...
 
Medical Cost Trend: Behind the Numbers 2017
Medical Cost Trend: Behind the Numbers 2017Medical Cost Trend: Behind the Numbers 2017
Medical Cost Trend: Behind the Numbers 2017
 
360 Degree View Of Customer Powerpoint Presentation Slides
360 Degree View Of Customer Powerpoint Presentation Slides360 Degree View Of Customer Powerpoint Presentation Slides
360 Degree View Of Customer Powerpoint Presentation Slides
 
Data Driven Decision Making Presentation
Data Driven Decision Making PresentationData Driven Decision Making Presentation
Data Driven Decision Making Presentation
 
Digital Transformation Iniciative
Digital Transformation IniciativeDigital Transformation Iniciative
Digital Transformation Iniciative
 
What is MarTech? - Infographic
What is MarTech? - InfographicWhat is MarTech? - Infographic
What is MarTech? - Infographic
 
Determine Your Data Strategy
Determine Your Data StrategyDetermine Your Data Strategy
Determine Your Data Strategy
 
Market Validation (Scale) (4).pdf
Market Validation (Scale) (4).pdfMarket Validation (Scale) (4).pdf
Market Validation (Scale) (4).pdf
 
Marketing data analytics
Marketing data analyticsMarketing data analytics
Marketing data analytics
 
Social Media and Text Analytics
Social Media and Text AnalyticsSocial Media and Text Analytics
Social Media and Text Analytics
 

Semelhante a Modeling The Market Mix Modeling Problem (Media Mix Optimization)

Essential Ingredients of a Market Mix Model
Essential Ingredients of a Market Mix Model Essential Ingredients of a Market Mix Model
Essential Ingredients of a Market Mix Model Amit Satsangi
 
How Start-up’s Can Grow Online
How Start-up’s Can Grow OnlineHow Start-up’s Can Grow Online
How Start-up’s Can Grow OnlineDushyant Verma
 
Marketing Strategy for B2B
Marketing Strategy for B2BMarketing Strategy for B2B
Marketing Strategy for B2BAmrit Sagar
 
Inventive Networks - Digital Marketing Overview
Inventive Networks - Digital Marketing OverviewInventive Networks - Digital Marketing Overview
Inventive Networks - Digital Marketing OverviewRanjith Kumar
 
Introduction to Digital Marketing (Startups Approach)
Introduction to Digital Marketing (Startups Approach)Introduction to Digital Marketing (Startups Approach)
Introduction to Digital Marketing (Startups Approach)Nima Rahimi
 
Dm(digital marketing) ppt
Dm(digital marketing) pptDm(digital marketing) ppt
Dm(digital marketing) pptnaman dadhich
 
Unifying Marketing Data & Multi-Touch Attribution Analysis
Unifying Marketing Data & Multi-Touch Attribution AnalysisUnifying Marketing Data & Multi-Touch Attribution Analysis
Unifying Marketing Data & Multi-Touch Attribution AnalysisPrinciple America
 
(17) digital marketing overview ppt ah authors
(17) digital marketing overview  ppt ah authors(17) digital marketing overview  ppt ah authors
(17) digital marketing overview ppt ah authorsHariharanAmutha1
 
Digital Marketing Audit Template (2016)
Digital Marketing Audit Template (2016)Digital Marketing Audit Template (2016)
Digital Marketing Audit Template (2016)Tim Bourgeois
 
Ascii digital marketing Profile
Ascii digital marketing ProfileAscii digital marketing Profile
Ascii digital marketing ProfileASCII Services
 
Digital marketing-overview
Digital marketing-overviewDigital marketing-overview
Digital marketing-overviewgreenboxdigital1
 
Digital marketing-overview (1)
Digital marketing-overview (1)Digital marketing-overview (1)
Digital marketing-overview (1)Namitstar K
 

Semelhante a Modeling The Market Mix Modeling Problem (Media Mix Optimization) (20)

Dm copy
Dm   copyDm   copy
Dm copy
 
Essential Ingredients of a Market Mix Model
Essential Ingredients of a Market Mix Model Essential Ingredients of a Market Mix Model
Essential Ingredients of a Market Mix Model
 
Digital marketing for college & university
Digital marketing for college & universityDigital marketing for college & university
Digital marketing for college & university
 
How Start-up’s Can Grow Online
How Start-up’s Can Grow OnlineHow Start-up’s Can Grow Online
How Start-up’s Can Grow Online
 
Marketing Strategy for B2B
Marketing Strategy for B2BMarketing Strategy for B2B
Marketing Strategy for B2B
 
Inventive Networks - Digital Marketing Overview
Inventive Networks - Digital Marketing OverviewInventive Networks - Digital Marketing Overview
Inventive Networks - Digital Marketing Overview
 
Introduction to Digital Marketing (Startups Approach)
Introduction to Digital Marketing (Startups Approach)Introduction to Digital Marketing (Startups Approach)
Introduction to Digital Marketing (Startups Approach)
 
How We Train Robots: A Practical Guide To Data-Driven Automation in Google & ...
How We Train Robots: A Practical Guide To Data-Driven Automation in Google & ...How We Train Robots: A Practical Guide To Data-Driven Automation in Google & ...
How We Train Robots: A Practical Guide To Data-Driven Automation in Google & ...
 
Dm(digital marketing) ppt
Dm(digital marketing) pptDm(digital marketing) ppt
Dm(digital marketing) ppt
 
DIGITAL MARKETING
DIGITAL MARKETINGDIGITAL MARKETING
DIGITAL MARKETING
 
Unifying Marketing Data & Multi-Touch Attribution Analysis
Unifying Marketing Data & Multi-Touch Attribution AnalysisUnifying Marketing Data & Multi-Touch Attribution Analysis
Unifying Marketing Data & Multi-Touch Attribution Analysis
 
(17) digital marketing overview ppt ah authors
(17) digital marketing overview  ppt ah authors(17) digital marketing overview  ppt ah authors
(17) digital marketing overview ppt ah authors
 
Digital Marketing Audit Template (2016)
Digital Marketing Audit Template (2016)Digital Marketing Audit Template (2016)
Digital Marketing Audit Template (2016)
 
Digital marketing-overview
Digital marketing-overviewDigital marketing-overview
Digital marketing-overview
 
Ascii digital marketing Profile
Ascii digital marketing ProfileAscii digital marketing Profile
Ascii digital marketing Profile
 
Digital marketing-overview
Digital marketing-overviewDigital marketing-overview
Digital marketing-overview
 
Digital marketing-overview
Digital marketing-overviewDigital marketing-overview
Digital marketing-overview
 
Digital marketing
Digital marketingDigital marketing
Digital marketing
 
Digital marketing-overview (1)
Digital marketing-overview (1)Digital marketing-overview (1)
Digital marketing-overview (1)
 
Digital marketing
Digital marketingDigital marketing
Digital marketing
 

Último

5 Ds to Define Data Archiving Best Practices
5 Ds to Define Data Archiving Best Practices5 Ds to Define Data Archiving Best Practices
5 Ds to Define Data Archiving Best PracticesDataArchiva
 
Virtuosoft SmartSync Product Introduction
Virtuosoft SmartSync Product IntroductionVirtuosoft SmartSync Product Introduction
Virtuosoft SmartSync Product Introductionsanjaymuralee1
 
ChistaDATA Real-Time DATA Analytics Infrastructure
ChistaDATA Real-Time DATA Analytics InfrastructureChistaDATA Real-Time DATA Analytics Infrastructure
ChistaDATA Real-Time DATA Analytics Infrastructuresonikadigital1
 
CI, CD -Tools to integrate without manual intervention
CI, CD -Tools to integrate without manual interventionCI, CD -Tools to integrate without manual intervention
CI, CD -Tools to integrate without manual interventionajayrajaganeshkayala
 
Master's Thesis - Data Science - Presentation
Master's Thesis - Data Science - PresentationMaster's Thesis - Data Science - Presentation
Master's Thesis - Data Science - PresentationGiorgio Carbone
 
The Universal GTM - how we design GTM and dataLayer
The Universal GTM - how we design GTM and dataLayerThe Universal GTM - how we design GTM and dataLayer
The Universal GTM - how we design GTM and dataLayerPavel Šabatka
 
Persuasive E-commerce, Our Biased Brain @ Bikkeldag 2024
Persuasive E-commerce, Our Biased Brain @ Bikkeldag 2024Persuasive E-commerce, Our Biased Brain @ Bikkeldag 2024
Persuasive E-commerce, Our Biased Brain @ Bikkeldag 2024Guido X Jansen
 
Cash Is Still King: ATM market research '2023
Cash Is Still King: ATM market research '2023Cash Is Still King: ATM market research '2023
Cash Is Still King: ATM market research '2023Vladislav Solodkiy
 
Mapping the pubmed data under different suptopics using NLP.pptx
Mapping the pubmed data under different suptopics using NLP.pptxMapping the pubmed data under different suptopics using NLP.pptx
Mapping the pubmed data under different suptopics using NLP.pptxVenkatasubramani13
 
TINJUAN PEMROSESAN TRANSAKSI DAN ERP.pptx
TINJUAN PEMROSESAN TRANSAKSI DAN ERP.pptxTINJUAN PEMROSESAN TRANSAKSI DAN ERP.pptx
TINJUAN PEMROSESAN TRANSAKSI DAN ERP.pptxDwiAyuSitiHartinah
 
Strategic CX: A Deep Dive into Voice of the Customer Insights for Clarity
Strategic CX: A Deep Dive into Voice of the Customer Insights for ClarityStrategic CX: A Deep Dive into Voice of the Customer Insights for Clarity
Strategic CX: A Deep Dive into Voice of the Customer Insights for ClarityAggregage
 
Optimal Decision Making - Cost Reduction in Logistics
Optimal Decision Making - Cost Reduction in LogisticsOptimal Decision Making - Cost Reduction in Logistics
Optimal Decision Making - Cost Reduction in LogisticsThinkInnovation
 
Rock Songs common codes and conventions.pptx
Rock Songs common codes and conventions.pptxRock Songs common codes and conventions.pptx
Rock Songs common codes and conventions.pptxFinatron037
 
CCS336-Cloud-Services-Management-Lecture-Notes-1.pptx
CCS336-Cloud-Services-Management-Lecture-Notes-1.pptxCCS336-Cloud-Services-Management-Lecture-Notes-1.pptx
CCS336-Cloud-Services-Management-Lecture-Notes-1.pptxdhiyaneswaranv1
 
Elements of language learning - an analysis of how different elements of lang...
Elements of language learning - an analysis of how different elements of lang...Elements of language learning - an analysis of how different elements of lang...
Elements of language learning - an analysis of how different elements of lang...PrithaVashisht1
 
How is Real-Time Analytics Different from Traditional OLAP?
How is Real-Time Analytics Different from Traditional OLAP?How is Real-Time Analytics Different from Traditional OLAP?
How is Real-Time Analytics Different from Traditional OLAP?sonikadigital1
 

Último (16)

5 Ds to Define Data Archiving Best Practices
5 Ds to Define Data Archiving Best Practices5 Ds to Define Data Archiving Best Practices
5 Ds to Define Data Archiving Best Practices
 
Virtuosoft SmartSync Product Introduction
Virtuosoft SmartSync Product IntroductionVirtuosoft SmartSync Product Introduction
Virtuosoft SmartSync Product Introduction
 
ChistaDATA Real-Time DATA Analytics Infrastructure
ChistaDATA Real-Time DATA Analytics InfrastructureChistaDATA Real-Time DATA Analytics Infrastructure
ChistaDATA Real-Time DATA Analytics Infrastructure
 
CI, CD -Tools to integrate without manual intervention
CI, CD -Tools to integrate without manual interventionCI, CD -Tools to integrate without manual intervention
CI, CD -Tools to integrate without manual intervention
 
Master's Thesis - Data Science - Presentation
Master's Thesis - Data Science - PresentationMaster's Thesis - Data Science - Presentation
Master's Thesis - Data Science - Presentation
 
The Universal GTM - how we design GTM and dataLayer
The Universal GTM - how we design GTM and dataLayerThe Universal GTM - how we design GTM and dataLayer
The Universal GTM - how we design GTM and dataLayer
 
Persuasive E-commerce, Our Biased Brain @ Bikkeldag 2024
Persuasive E-commerce, Our Biased Brain @ Bikkeldag 2024Persuasive E-commerce, Our Biased Brain @ Bikkeldag 2024
Persuasive E-commerce, Our Biased Brain @ Bikkeldag 2024
 
Cash Is Still King: ATM market research '2023
Cash Is Still King: ATM market research '2023Cash Is Still King: ATM market research '2023
Cash Is Still King: ATM market research '2023
 
Mapping the pubmed data under different suptopics using NLP.pptx
Mapping the pubmed data under different suptopics using NLP.pptxMapping the pubmed data under different suptopics using NLP.pptx
Mapping the pubmed data under different suptopics using NLP.pptx
 
TINJUAN PEMROSESAN TRANSAKSI DAN ERP.pptx
TINJUAN PEMROSESAN TRANSAKSI DAN ERP.pptxTINJUAN PEMROSESAN TRANSAKSI DAN ERP.pptx
TINJUAN PEMROSESAN TRANSAKSI DAN ERP.pptx
 
Strategic CX: A Deep Dive into Voice of the Customer Insights for Clarity
Strategic CX: A Deep Dive into Voice of the Customer Insights for ClarityStrategic CX: A Deep Dive into Voice of the Customer Insights for Clarity
Strategic CX: A Deep Dive into Voice of the Customer Insights for Clarity
 
Optimal Decision Making - Cost Reduction in Logistics
Optimal Decision Making - Cost Reduction in LogisticsOptimal Decision Making - Cost Reduction in Logistics
Optimal Decision Making - Cost Reduction in Logistics
 
Rock Songs common codes and conventions.pptx
Rock Songs common codes and conventions.pptxRock Songs common codes and conventions.pptx
Rock Songs common codes and conventions.pptx
 
CCS336-Cloud-Services-Management-Lecture-Notes-1.pptx
CCS336-Cloud-Services-Management-Lecture-Notes-1.pptxCCS336-Cloud-Services-Management-Lecture-Notes-1.pptx
CCS336-Cloud-Services-Management-Lecture-Notes-1.pptx
 
Elements of language learning - an analysis of how different elements of lang...
Elements of language learning - an analysis of how different elements of lang...Elements of language learning - an analysis of how different elements of lang...
Elements of language learning - an analysis of how different elements of lang...
 
How is Real-Time Analytics Different from Traditional OLAP?
How is Real-Time Analytics Different from Traditional OLAP?How is Real-Time Analytics Different from Traditional OLAP?
How is Real-Time Analytics Different from Traditional OLAP?
 

Modeling The Market Mix Modeling Problem (Media Mix Optimization)

  • 1. Market Mix Modeling: Search For The Perfect Mix 5th Annual Big Data Conference (2017), Santa Clara Amit Satsangi More on MMM coming soon. Slideshare.net users please share your thoughts, likes with me (below)
  • 2. Amit Satsangi https://www.linkedin.com/in/amitsatsangi/ • Data Scientist (Consultant) • 10 years: Analytics, IT and Management experience MS Physics  MS Comp Sci  MBA
  • 3. 3 Online channels and Revenue Allocation
  • 4. Problem Definition 4 DisplayAds/Paid Search (SEM) Email Television Ads Print Ads PR Events
  • 5. 5 Attribution: Assigning $ Value to online events
  • 6. Assisting Channel (SEO) Originating Channel (SEM) Assisting Channel (Email) Activity Marketing Spend Day1: User searches for a beauty product, and clicks on Google Ad SEM ($16) Day 5: Organic Search by user, lands on the company website, provides email, abandons cart SEO ($5) Day 6: User receives email and clicks on it, but still does not buy Email ($0.05) Day 7: User sees ad on Facebook, clicks on the ad, and makes a purchase Revenue Generated $100 Facebook Ad ($2.0) Converting Channel (Facebook) The Channel Attribution Problem
  • 8. 8 Attribution Models  Media Mix Optimization 
  • 9. Issues With Multi-touch Attribution Modeling 9 Soccer How should we distribute the prize money of $10 Million amongst these players? • Give 100% to the goalkeeper(First Click Attribution)? • Give 100% to the player who hit the ball in the goal (Last click Attribution)? • Something else??? Does This Sound Totally Absurd? So, should Attribution Modeling
  • 10. Let’s Talk About Sex 10 01 Detector
  • 11. 11 Marketing, Promotion & Advertising 101
  • 12. Patterns of Advertising Response 12 02 01 Current Effect Carryover Effect 03 Shape Effect. 04 CompetitiveEffects 37% Dynamic Effects05 06 07 Content Effects Media Effects
  • 13. Temporal Effects of Advertising 13 Modeling Marketing Mix Gerard J Tellis
  • 14. 14 Modeling The Market Mix Modeling Problem
  • 15. Market Mix Modeling: A Few Techniques 15 Modeling Marketing Mix (Gerard J Tellis) 1. Basic Linear Model A, P, R, Q: Email, Price, Display Ads, SEO, TV Paid Search, Print 2. Multiplicative Model 3. Logit Model Sales = 169 + 2.5*Email + 45*Price + 3.5*TV + …
  • 16. 16 Market Mix Modeling : Experimental Results
  • 18. Results From The Linear Regression Model 18
  • 19. Results From The Log-linear Multiplicative Model (I) 19
  • 20. Results From The Log-linear Multiplicative Model (II) licative Model 20
  • 21. 21 Learning is the eye of the mind…
  • 22. • Channel Attribution fails to provide even a minimally acceptable solution to the problem of Media Mix Optimization (marketing budget allocation) • At best Channel Attribution can be used to determine the most popular “channel paths” that the customers take (using Markov Chains) • Using MMM one can go to various levels of model complexity depending on the effects that are desired: current vs. carryover vs. shape etc. (see Tellis) • With MMM the costs of building and keeping the model up-to- date go up with complexity (accuracy) • Any MMM model (even the most basic one) takes time and effort to build – check for Heteroscedasticity, Collinearity, Normality. Auto-correlation etc. Learnings 22
  • 23. It is not the answer that enlightens, but the question. …Eugene Ionesco