The document provides a weekly update on the oil and gas sector. It discusses: 1) Crude oil prices weakened significantly in May due to various supply and demand factors, but the analyst expects prices to strengthen in the second half of 2011. 2) China cut retail gasoline and diesel prices, which will negatively impact Chinese oil companies but increased price reform could benefit refiners. 3) The analyst maintains an overweight rating on the energy sector and favors upstream companies like PetroChina and CNOOC that are less exposed to short-term price fluctuations.

1. Global Strategy
Equity Research Asia Sector Strategy
May 22, 2012
O&G Weekly: Short-term weakness
S&P 2012 GDP ESTIMATES:  Crude prices weakened significantly in May. WTI, Brent and Dubai all fell
China: 7.7%-8.2% between 13% and 16% from their peaks in March, driven by weaker
Hong Kong: 2.5%-3.0% fundamentals, perceived easing of geopolitical tensions and a strengthening
India: 6.8%-7.3% USD. On the supply side, increased Saudi production and the lifting of Saudi
Indonesia: 6.0%-6.5% export bottlenecks boosted OPEC supply to 31.6 mln (+1% MoM), but high
Japan: 1.5%-2.0% seasonal refinery turnarounds and low direct crude burns in Saudi Arabia
Korea: 2.8%-3.3% lifted regional inventories. US crude inventories saw a 7.2 mln bbl build in
Malaysia: 4.4%-4.9% April based on EIA data, due partly to stockpiling ahead of the Seaway
Singapore: 2.0%-2.5% reversal but also due to strong US crude production from the Bakken
Taiwan: 2.3%-2.8% formation. On the demand side, demand from emerging economies such as
Thailand: 3.5%-4.0% China weakened, with Platts data indicating apparent demand grew just 0.3%
U.S.: 2.1% YoY in April, its slowest pace since June 2011.
Eurozone: 0.0%
 Expect a stronger 2H11. Despite the current market weakness, we retain our
2012 INDEX TARGETS: view that 2H11 should see stronger prices, as inventory builds should
S&P 500: 1,450 reverse on stronger crude oil refinery throughputs, higher Saudi direct crude
S&P Euro 350: 1,170 burns as the hot summer approaches, and the potential re-emergence of the
S&P Asia 50: 3,500 nuclear impasse in Iran, with the next round of talks due tomorrow. Supply
disruptions from the Sudan region (a major supplier of crude oil to Asian
economies), as well as Syria and Yemen, will play a larger role in a potential
uptick in prices as demand growth returns. Still, we see some risk to demand
should the global economy continue to weaken, which will drive down
demand for crude oil, especially should the main drivers (e.g. China)
experience a hard landing.
Energy  China cuts pump prices. The NDRC cut retail gasoline and diesel prices by
CNY330/ton and CNY310/ton on May 9. We see the cuts as being negative for
Oil & Gas Sinopec (3-STARS) and to a lesser extent PetroChina (4-STARS), especially
as it starts processing higher-priced March-April crudes (crude oil prices in
Overweight China lag international benchmark prices by 1-2 months). Sustained
weakness in international crude oil prices does increase the prospect of
further pricing reform (e.g. by reducing the days used in the formula from 22
working days to possibly 10, to speed up price adjustments), which would be
positive for the refiners, and in particular Sinopec. However, given our
expectations of a stronger price environment in 2H11, we think further
Ahmad Abdul-Halim, CFA reform is unlikely in 2012, especially as the government is likely to be
Equity Analyst
focused on its 18 th Communist Party Congress in the autumn of 2012.
 Stay Overweight; focus on upstream. We retain our Overweight call on the
sector, and view the current weakness as a buying opportunity for a stronger
environment in 2H11. We continue to favour the upstream-oriented
PetroChina and CNOOC Ltd (5-STARS); while short-term crude price
weakness may persist, lower inventories and a rebound in refinery
throughput should bring average crude prices higher YoY and drive growth.
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2. May 22, 2012 Global Strategy
2
Select Integrated Oil & Gas and E&P Price Performance and Key Capital IQ Consensus Ratios as at May 21, 2012
Price Performance PER (x) PAT Growth
Market
Trading Cap (USD
Company Name CIQ Ticker Ccy Share Price mln) 1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths FY2012 FY2013 FY2012 FY2013
Integrateds
Exxon Mobil Corporation NYSE:XOM USD 82.04 383,633 -3.8% -5.2% 6.7% 9.9x 9.2x -6.5% 4.5%
PetroChina Co. Ltd. SEHK:857 HKD 10.16 271,189 -10.9% -11.2% 2.3% 9.6x 9.0x 10.3% 3.8%
Royal Dutch Shell plc LSE:RDSA GBP 19.84 201,908 -7.2% -13.9% -7.9% 6.8x 6.4x -10.3% 6.8%
Chevron Corporation NYSE:CVX USD 99.69 196,656 -2.8% -8.0% 4.2% 7.4x 7.3x -1.9% 0.9%
BP plc LSE:BP. GBP 3.96 118,770 -9.0% -20.5% -10.1% 5.8x 5.3x -18.7% 5.0%
China Petroleum & Chemical Corp. SEHK:386 HKD 7.12 92,637 -14.2% -18.7% -11.1% 6.6x 6.1x 2.8% 11.4%
ConocoPhillips NYSE:COP USD 51.77 65,466 -29.0% -29.9% -24.8% 7.0x 6.4x -27.1% 7.2%
PTT Public Co. Ltd. SET:PTT THB 322.00 29,342 -9.0% -9.8% 8.4% 7.7x 6.9x 9.5% 15.9%
Average -10.73% -14.66% -4.03% 7.6x 7.1x -5.2% 6.9%
E&Ps
CNOOC Ltd. SEHK:883 HKD 14.28 82,100 -12.1% -17.6% -0.7% 7.4x 7.4x -0.1% 0.5%
Statoil ASA OB:STL NOK 139.10 74,293 -9.2% -9.0% -1.3% 7.7x 7.3x -27.4% 1.4%
Suncor Energy Inc. TSX:SU CAD 27.40 41,825 -11.6% -21.1% -11.4% 7.9x 7.2x 21.3% 11.4%
Anadarko Petroleum Corporation NYSE:APC USD 64.74 32,342 -9.7% -24.5% -14.5% 16.2x 12.1x NM 27.6%
Apache Corp. NYSE:APA USD 82.72 32,330 -9.6% -24.8% -13.3% 6.8x 6.2x 5.7% 11.7%
Woodside Petroleum Ltd. ASX:WPL AUD 30.99 25,157 -11.5% -13.8% -12.3% 13.2x 11.1x 28.3% 20.9%
PTT E&P PCL SET:PTTEP THB 163.00 17,265 -7.1% -11.9% 3.2% 9.8x 8.0x 20.1% 23.9%
Hess Corporation NYSE:HES USD 46.04 15,540 -16.4% -29.7% -21.3% 7.2x 5.9x 29.9% 23.0%
Average -10.90% -19.05% -8.95% 9.5x 7.6x 11.1% 15.1%
EV/EBITDA PBV ROE Gross Margin Div Yield
Company Name FY2012 FY2013 FY2012 FY2013 FY2012 FY2013 FY2012 FY2013 FY2012 FY2013
Integrateds
Exxon Mobil Corporation NYSE:XOM 4.4x 4.2x 2.3x 2.1x 22.6% 21.6% 42.70% 44.30% 2.55% 2.76%
PetroChina Co. Ltd. SEHK:857 5.6x 5.3x 1.4x 1.3x 14.7% 14.6% 42.30% 47.05% 4.67% 5.00%
Royal Dutch Shell plc LSE:RDSA 3.5x 3.3x 1.0x 0.9x 16.1% 15.3% 0.00% 0.00% 5.42% 5.61%
Chevron Corporation NYSE:CVX 3.1x 3.1x 1.4x 1.3x 20.4% 18.5% 44.30% 45.90% 3.47% 3.62%
BP plc LSE:BP. 3.3x 3.3x 1.0x 0.9x 17.5% 16.7% 18.80% 19.70% 5.21% 5.74%
China Petroleum & Chemical Corp. SEHK:386 4.6x 4.1x 1.0x 0.9x 15.5% 14.8% 16.89% 19.47% 4.69% 5.03%
ConocoPhillips NYSE:COP 3.7x 3.5x 1.1x 1.0x 13.3% 14.3% 27.30% 28.60% 5.17% 5.43%
PTT Public Co. Ltd. SET:PTT 5.5x 4.9x 1.4x 1.2x 19.5% 19.3% 9.18% 10.04% 4.36% 4.83%
Average 4.2x 4.0x 1.3x 1.2x 17.4% 16.9% 28.78% 30.72% 4.44% 4.75%
E&Ps
CNOOC Ltd. SEHK:883 3.6x 3.6x 1.7x 1.4x 24.6% 21.1% 62.67% 61.45% 4.23% 4.50%
Statoil ASA OB:STL 1.8x 1.8x 1.4x 1.3x 19.4% 18.1% 47.55% 46.57% 4.85% 5.10%
Suncor Energy Inc. TSX:SU 4.0x 3.7x 1.0x 0.8x 13.5% 12.5% 60.80% 62.60% 1.79% 1.97%
Anadarko Petroleum Corporation NYSE:APC 4.7x 4.3x 1.5x 1.3x 10.6% 11.6% 71.30% 0.00% 0.56% 0.56%
Apache Corp. NYSE:APA 3.1x 2.8x 1.0x 0.8x 15.5% 15.2% 79.30% 0.00% 0.79% 0.79%
Woodside Petroleum Ltd. ASX:WPL 7.5x 6.5x 1.8x 1.6x 14.5% 16.0% 74.25% 74.30% 3.92% 4.54%
PTT E&P PCL SET:PTTEP 4.5x 3.6x 2.2x 1.9x 24.5% 25.1% 52.78% 53.72% 3.96% 4.85%
Hess Corporation NYSE:HES 2.9x 2.6x 0.7x 0.7x 11.2% 11.6% 31.60% 33.50% 0.90% 0.90%
Average 4.0x 3.6x 1.4x 1.2x 16.7% 16.4% 60.03% 55.36% 2.63% 2.90%
Source: S&P Capital IQ
Standard & Poor’s Equity Research

3. May 22, 2012 Global Strategy
S&P Capital IQ Equity Research – S&P Capital IQ Equity Research U.S. includes
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Abbreviations Used in S&P Capital IQ Equity Research Reports
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CAGR- Compound Annual Growth Rate
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Also, S&P Capital IQ EPS estimates reflect either forecasts of S&P Capital IQ equity particular, the Fair Value Ranking methodology is a relative ranking methodology,
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compiled by Capital IQ, a data provider to S&P Capital IQ Equity Research. Among STARS methodology reflect different criteria, assumptions and analytical methods,
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S&P Global STARS Distribution
which some types of data is disclosed by companies. In North America
As of March 31, 2012, research analysts at S&P Capital IQ Equity Research North
S&P Core Earnings – S&P Capital IQ Core Earnings is a uniform methodology for America recommended 34.5% of issuers with buy recommendations, 57.9% with
adjusting operating earnings by focusing on a company's after-tax earnings hold recommendations and 7.6% with sell recommendations.
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In Europe
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As of March 31, 2012, research analysts at S&P Capital IQ Equity Research Europe
ongoing operations, write-downs of depreciable or amortizable operating assets, recommended 30.1% of issuers with buy recommendations, 49.4% with hold
purchased research and development, M&A related expenses and unrealized recommendations and 20.5% with sell recommendations.
gains/losses from hedging activities. Excluded from the definition are pension gains,
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As of March 31, 2012, research analysts at S&P Capital IQ Equity Research Asia
year charges and provision from litigation or insurance settlements. recommended 35.9% of issuers with buy recommendations, 54.3% with hold
recommendations and 9.8% with sell recommendations.
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combination of intrinsic, relative, and private market valuation metrics, including S&P As of March 31, 2012, research analysts at S&P Capital IQ Equity Research globally
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Fair Value.
recommendations and 9.7% with sell recommendations.
Standard & Poor’s Equity Research

4. May 22, 2012 Global Strategy
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