Have you heard about the fiscal cliff? After the November election, Congress will make decisions about the Bush tax cuts, sequestration, and a number of other federal budget related issues. Join the webinar to learn how it could impact health, human services, and early care & education in Ohio.

1. The Fiscal Cliff
What does it mean for Ohio?

2. The Fiscal Cliff
What does it mean for Ohio?
Featuring:
 Ellen Nissenbaum, Senior Vice President for
Government Affairs, CBPP
 Debbie Weinstein, Executive Director
Coalition on Human Needs
 Wendy Patton, Senior Project Director, Policy Matters
Ohio

3. TODAY’S AGENDA
 3:00 - 3:05 Will Petrik – Intro, agenda and purpose of conversation
 3:05 - 3:10Debbie Weinstein – What’s at stake for struggling families and
communities?
 3:10 - 3:30 Ellen Nissenbaum – How did we get here? What are possible
approaches to deficit reduction?
 3:30 - 3:40
Debbie Weinstein - What would a cuts only approach mean for
human needs programs nationally?
 3:40 - 3:48 Wendy Patton - What does it mean for Ohio?
 3:48 - 3:50 Debbie Weinstein – What can Ohioans do to advocate for deficit
reduction that doesn’t increase poverty or income inequality?
 3:50 - 4:00 Q&A

4. So much is at stake.
Why the decisions
Congress will (or
Deborah Weinstein
won’t) make in the October 16, 2012
coming months will
matter in Ohio and the
nation.

5. Will Poverty and Economic Insecurity
Matter in the Big Decisions Ahead?
• 46 million poor people (15%; 16.4% in Ohio).
• 106 million people below 2x the poverty line
(below $46,000, family of 4) = 1/3 of the nation.
• 16 million poor children (22%; 24.2% in Ohio).
• Huge racial/ethnic disparities:
Total Poor: Children Poor:
White: 9.8% 12.5%
Black: 27.5% 37.4%
Hispanic: 25.3% 34.1%

6. Top Ten Cities for Child Poverty
Gary, IN: 70% Reading, PA: 56%
Flint, MI: 61% Rochester, NY:55%
Detroit, MI: 58% Cleveland, OH:
Canton, OH: 58% 55%
Camden, NJ: 57% Dayton, OH: 55%
South Bend, IN:
54%
American Community
Survey, 2011

7. Life and Death
Stakes Deaths due to lack of
health coverage
25-64 year olds, 2005-2010
18-64 year olds:
U.S., 40m uninsured
(21%)
21.3m have public U.S. = 134,120
insurance (11%).
Ohio, 1.2m Ohio = 4,496
uninsured
1.05m have public Source: Families USA
insurance

8. Families facing hardships turn
to SNAP
SNAP caseloads up nationwide –
July ’08 July ’11 July ’12 % Increase
(7/08 – 7/12)
29 m 45.3 m 46.7 m + 61%
• SNAP = Supplemental Nutrition
Assistance Program, aka food stamps

9. EITC, UI, SNAP lift families out of poverty
All people lifted
out of poverty
by EITC, 2011: 5.7 million
All people lifted
out of poverty by
UI, 2011: 2.3 million
All people lifted
out of poverty by
SNAP, 2011: 3.9 million
source: U.S. Census Bureau

10. Huge Fiscal Decisions Lie Ahead:
The Key Policy Choices
Thursday Webinar for Ohio folks
Ellen Nissenbaum
Senior Vice President, Government Affairs
www.cbpp.org
nissenbaum@cbpp.org
October 16, 2012

11. 11
Long-Term Debt is Unsustainable

12. Center on Budget and Policy Priorities 12
cbpp.org

13. Center on Budget and Policy Priorities 13
Number of U.S. Households Living Below
World Bank Measure of Serious Poverty in
Developing Nations:
Living on Less Than $2 a Day, Per Person
Cash Income Cash Income plus
Food Stamps
636,000 households
1996 475,000 households
with 1.4 million children
1.46 million households
Start of 2011 800,000 households
with 2.8 million children
cbpp.org
Source: Shaefer and Edin, “Extreme Poverty in the United States,” 1996 to 10/18/20
2011.

14. Center on Budget and Policy Priorities 14
Debt limit is
Sequestration hits
hit in early
in January
2013
Current FY13
Tax cuts & CR runs
UI expire in through
December March 27
cbpp.org

15. Center on Budget and Policy Priorities 15
Sequestration:
• Automatic across the board spending cuts (9 years)
• Primarily hits appropriations
• $109 billion in FY 2013; Roughly $1trillion over 9
years
• 50% from the defense; 50% from all other
nonexempt spending
cbpp.org

16. Center on Budget and Policy Priorities 16
• Insert slide from Kelsey that has budget pie
chart showing 1/3 of NDD is money for states.
cbpp.org

17. Center on Budget and Policy Priorities 17
Health/other
entitlements
Discretionary Revenues
spending Deficit (reduce deficit?
Lower rates?)
Deal:
3-legged
stool
(ratio)
cbpp.org

18. Center on Budget and Policy Priorities 18
Non-Defense Discretionary Spending
Cuts Far Below Historical Levels
cbpp.org
10/18/2012 18

19. Center on Budget and Policy Priorities 19
Over Nine-Tenths of Entitlement Benefit
Spending Goes to the Elderly, Disabled,
or Working Households
cbpp.org

20. Center on Budget and Policy Priorities
Large Deficit-Reduction
Packages Have Included Large
Revenue Increases
cbpp.org

21. Center on Budget and Policy Priorities 21
KEY DECISIONS TO PROTECT THE POOR
• Averting further cuts in NDD (nondefense discretionary)
• No cuts in nonhealth low-income entitlements (SSI,etc)
• SNAP (no more than the Sen. Farm Bill $4 billion)
• No reductions in Medicaid that hit beneficiaries or shift costs to states
(which ultimately hurts beneficiaries and could discourage states from adopting
the ACA’s landmark Medicaid expansion)
• No cuts in the refundable tax credits for working poor (EITC, Child Tax
Credit)
• Ensuring tax reform raises significant revenues and is progressive
cbpp.org

22. Center on Budget and Policy Priorities 22
There Are Both Risks and Opportunities on Taxes,
Especially for Low-Income Families with Children
• If new tax revenue is raised, who will bear the burden? Will revenue increases
be progressive?
• How will low-wage workers fare? Emerging proposals to make everyone who
works pay at least some federal income tax would effectively result in a
several-thousand-dollar tax increase for low-income working families.
• A mother raising two children on full-time minimum-wage earnings now
receives a $7,000 tax credit check because of the Earned Income Tax Credit
and Child Tax Credit — essentially a large negative income tax. For her to
owe income tax would require taking more than $7,000 — the equivalent of
$3.50 an hour — away from her.
• On another front, if revenues are to be raised as part of a deficit-reduction
package, can that provide an opening for a carbon tax or other major energy
tax that can help us address global warming?
cbpp.org

23. Center on Budget and Policy Priorities 23
BOTTOM LINE: A Balanced Plan
REVENUES
• Bipartisan commissions all agree
• Getting to $2+ trillion
• $1.5 trillion cuts already enacted
• What’s “off the table?”
• Two big budgetary “losers” w/o major revenues
• Big hit on states
cbpp.org

24. Center on Budget and Policy Priorities 24
Core Principles for Deficit Reduction
• Must include substantial new revenues & spending cuts
• The cuts already made in discretionary spending should be counted
• Do not increase poverty or income inequality, or reduce opportunity
for those who are disadvantaged.
• End the 2001/2003 tax cuts now for the wealthiest 2%
• No more cuts in total discretionary spending below BCA
• Don’t shift costs to states
cbpp.org
10/18/2012 24

25. What happens if the deficit is
reduced by spending cuts alone?
Don’t like that?
Cuts of $110 billion a year Options:
for 10 years, evenly • Cut defense less?
divided between defense • Cut defense more?
and
domestic/international. • Cut domestic programs
more deeply?
Many low-income • Cut Medicaid,
programs exempted. Medicare, SNAP, UI,
SSI, low-income tax
credits?

26. Is there room to cut the Pentagon?
• If sequestration
takes effect
through 2021,
Pentagon will
still have more
than it had at
height of Cold
War (in real
terms).
• After cuts in
2013, U.S. will
still make 40%
of world’s
military
expenditures.

27. Impact of Automatic Cuts
(aka “sequestration”)
750,000 – 900,000 fewer infants, children and
moms receiving WIC
413,000 fewer adults and youth getting job
training
51,000 fewer veterans in ed/training
1.8 million fewer low-income schoolchildren with
reading and math help
96,000 fewer children in Head Start; 80,000
fewer children in child care

28. More Impacts…
734,000 fewer households with home
heating/cooling aid
185,000 – 200,000 fewer households receiving
rental vouchers
100,000 more homeless people because of cuts to
Homelessness Assistance Grants
1.5 million fewer low-income people helped in
community action agencies (through Community
Services Block Grant)
34,000 fewer women screened for cancer
169,000 fewer admissions to substance abuse
treatment

29. How much less than in FY 2010?
• Adult job training: 22.5 – 23.5 percent
• Adult basic education: 19.5 – 20.5 percent
• IDEA education: 12.8 – 14.0%
• LIHEAP grants to states: 33.3 – 34.2 percent
• Public housing capital fund: 35 – 35.9
percent
• WIC: 20.9 – 22.0 percent
• Substance abuse treatment: 29.9 – 30.8
percent
• Maternal and Child Health: 16.4 – 17.5
percent

30. A Choice:
The cost of continuing The cost of avoiding
the favorable tax sequestration-level cuts
treatment for hedge for housing vouchers
fund managers: and WIC:
$21 billion $21 billion
over 10 years over 10 years

31. Choice #2
OR
Spend $156 million for 2 Provide low-cost
V-22 Osprey child care to 22,000
helicopters, which cost children
5 times as much as
other helicopters and
don’t work well.

32. Choice #3
OR
Keep estate tax low: • Preserve refundable
• Helps 7,400 estates tax credits for 13m
nationwide, who get families; 25.7m
$1.1 million more children.
each than if at 2009 • Helps 500,000 Ohio
levels. families; nearly 1
• Helps 140 Ohio million children.
estates.
Source: Center on Budget and Policy
Priorities

33. Proposals looming to cut vital
programs
• Medicaid: block grant? Per capita
cap?
Ryan budget would block-grant and cut
Medicaid by one-third by 2022.
• SNAP: block grant? Reduce benefits?
Ryan budget would block-grant and cut SNAP
by $134b over 10 years.
• UI: allow federal benefits for long-term
unemployed to expire in December?

34. Federal Funding in the State Budget:
Impact of sequester on funding levels
Wendy Patton
Senior Project Director
Policy Matters Ohio
www.policymattersohio.org
wpatton@policymattersohio.or

35. Federal share of Ohio’s General
Revenue Fund has Grown over time
Source: Policy Matters Ohio based on Legislative Service Commission

36. Federal program funding in the Ohio
Department of Health
Source: Policy Matters Ohio based on Legislative Service Commission Budget in detail

37. • Figure 1
• Share of Federal Funding in Total
Budget by Service Area, State of Ohio,
Current State Biennial Budget (SFY

38. Ohio to lose $316 million in first year
of sequester
• $126 million annual cut to K-12
– $58 million – Title 1 (K-12)
– $38 million – Special education
• Higher education
– $3.3 million cut from work study (2000 students)
– $2.6 million from supplemental opportunity
grant
Source: Policy Matters Ohio based on Federal Funds Information for the States

39. Sequester cuts to health and human
services in Ohio
• Health and human services in Ohio to see $82
million cut
– Head Start loses $25 million
– Low income energy assistance to lose $14.6
million
– Child care & development block grant - $6.9
million
– Substance abuse prevention and treatment block
grant - $5.9 million
Source: Policy Matters Ohio based on Federal Funds Information for the States

40. Strengthening America’s Values and Economy
(SAVE) For All
Letter with 1,900 signers:
92 in Ohio.
 Protect low-  Increase revenues
income and from fair sources
vulnerable people
 Seek responsible
 Promote job savings from the
creation to Pentagon and
strengthen the other areas
economy

41. You can help!
• If your organization • Write an op-ed (we
signed the SAVE for can help with
All letter, send notes drafting.)
to staff for Senators • Write letters to the
Brown and Portman. editor responding to
• Bring the letter to stories about deficit
candidates’ forums. reduction, impending
• Set up meetings with cuts.
staff – in person or by
phone.

42. CONTACT
Advocates for Ohio’s Future
510 East Mound Street, Suite 200
Columbus, OH 43215
www.advocatesforohio.org
Will Petrik | 614-602-2464
Gail Clendenin | 614-602-2463