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The Interdependence Between Urban and Rural Food Security in Asia 2011
1. The Interdependence Between
Urban and Rural Food Security in
Asia
Professor Paul PS Teng
Dean, Graduate Studies & Professional Learning, NIE
Senior Fellow, RSIS, NTU,
Dr. Margarita Escaler
Research Fellow
National Institute of Education,
and
Dr. Mely Caballero-Anthony
RSIS, NTU, Singapore
2. โข Food security landscape in Asia
โข Importance of urban food security
โข Multi-dimensional nature of food security
โข Urban-rural linkages and interdependence
โข Policies & action interventions
โข Case study: Singapore
Outline of Presentation
3. Asia: A contrasting scorecard
โข 60% of worldโs population
โข Six of the top ten most populous countries
โข Fastest growing economies โ โAsia-7โ
โข 3.1B people; GDP $14.2Trillion
โข 27% of global GDP (rising to 51% in 2050)
โข Half of worldโs urban population
โข More than half of worldโs slum population
โข Eleven megacities
โข Large agricultural exporter and importer
โข 60% of worldโs under-nourished
Food Security Landscape in Asia
4. Food Balances in Asia
Crop Item
Million MT
06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11
WHEAT Global Production 596 612 682 684 648
Asia Imports
(% of Global Exports)
35
(30)
31
(27)
34
(24)
35
(26)
33
(27)
RICE
(milled)
Global Production 421 434 448 440 452
Asia Imports
(% of Global Exports)
10
(31)
8.5
(29
6.9
(24)
8.6
(28)
8.7
(29)
CORN Global Production 714 795 799 812 814
Asia Imports
(% of Global Exports)
34
(37)
35
(36)
34
(40)
37
(39)
36
(39)
SOYBEAN Global Production 237 221 212 261 258
Asia Imports
(% of Global Exports)
39
(56)
48
(61)
51
(66)
61
(65)
68
(69)
Source: USDA FAS
5. Asia by 2050
Food Security Landscape in Asia
Urban
2010
Rural
2010
Total
2010
Urban
2050
Rural
2050
Total
2050
ASIA 1.8 2.4 4.2 3.4 1.7 5.1
WORLD 3.5 3.4 6.9 6.3 3 9.3
Three key drivers
โข ~20% increase in total population
โข ~89% increase in urban population
โข 51% of global GDP (from 27% in 2010)
Population
6. Food Demand Changes in Asia
โข Reduced per capita consumption of rice
โข Increased consumption per capita of wheat and
wheat-based products
โข Increased diversity in the food groups consumed
โข Rise in high proteins and energy dense diets
โข Increased consumption of temperate zone
products
โข Rising popularity of convenience food and
beverages
โข Westernization of diets
Source: Pingali, FAO 2004
7. โข Meat consumption
100 years ago, average 25 kg/person/yr
Today, average 80 kg/person/yr (USA โ 124 kg/person/yr)
China:1962 โ 4 kg/person/yr; 2005 โ 60 kg/person/yr
โข Fish consumption
1960s โ 9.9 kg/person/yr; 2005 โ 16.4 kg/person/yr
China accounted for most of world growth (26.1 kg/person/yr)
โข Vegetable consumption
- 1970s โ 60 kg/person/yr; 2000 โ >100 kg/person/yr
- China: 1970 โ 44.4 kg/person/yr; 2005 โ 270.6 kg/person/yr
Food Demand Changes in Asia (contโd)
8. At present, 50% of the worldโs
population lives in cities โ Asia
accounts for half the share
By 2050, 70% will be urban
(mostly in developing
countries) with Asia seeing an
increase of ~1.7 Billion
Shift in the locus of poverty to
cities
Increase in slum dwellers to
828 M in 2010 from 777 M in
2000; Asia accounts for more
than half the worldโs total slum
population
Urbanization of Asia
Asian Urbanization 2010 2050
Total Urban Population
(millions)
3,486 6,285
East Asia 785 1,189
West Asia 155 296
Southeast Asia 247 501
South Central Asia 571 1,396
Urbanization (%)
East Asia 50 79
West Asia 67 75
Southeast Asia 42 66
South Central Asia 32 56
ASIA 1,758 3,382
Source: UN World Urbanization Prospects, 2009 Revision
9. Importance of Urban Food Security
โA hungry person with low
blood sugar is a very angry
person โ virtually
ungovernableโ
Ruth Oniangโo
10. Why is food a security issue?
* Lack of access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food
Food
Shortages
Food
Contamination
Food Price
Increases
Deterioration of Health
Deterioration of Nutrition
Loss of Life
Economic Instability
Political Instability
Conflict
Social Instability
Food
Hoarding
Food
Insecurity*
Globalisation
Conflict
Climate Change
11. Unique features of cities
- Most food is purchased
- Food basket is more varied and more diverse
in origin
- More vulnerable to changes in the intโl markets
- Supermarket chains and control
of access
- Availability of more processed foods
- Higher food prices have greater adverse effects
- Poor living conditions for urban poor
- Jobs of urban poor and insecure, uncertain
12. II.
Physical Access
Production
Imports
Stockpiles
I. Availability
Primary Production
Crops/Animals
III.
Economic Access
IV.
Utilization
Demand for
Food
Inputs
Labor Land Water
Sunshine
Other Uses
Fish
Distribution
Biofuels
Animal Feed
Poultry
Mammals
Aquaculture
Capture Natural
Ecosystems
Population Increases
Diet Diversification
Lifestyle Changes
Urbanization Etc.
Processing/
Distribution
Losses
Household
Food
Security
Trade
Multi-dimensional Nature of Food Security
13. Issues of Concern
Availability Physical
Access
Economic
Access
Utilization
โข Fragility of
agro-systems
โข Climate change
โข Competition for
land
โข Changing
demographics
โข Waste
โข Intโl trade
policies
โข Biofuel policies
โข Subsidies
โข Etc.
โข Poor infrastructure
โข Conflict
โข Market
imperfections
โข Waste
โข Etc.
โข Health and
nutrition
โข Fortification
programs
โข Education
โข Etc.
โข Social
programs,
safety nets
โข Employment
โข Income
โข Macroeconomic
policies
โข Entrepreneurship
โข Etc.
14. Urban-Rural Inter-dependence
URBAN RURAL
- Urban markets spur economic growth in countryside
- Urban residents depend indirectly on agriculture
- Incomes from non-agricultural activities and remittances help decrease
rural poverty & increase agricultural innovation
- Commuting and circular migration for rural residents decreases
dependence on subsistence production for food security
- In times of crisis, urban residents may migrate to countryside
- Cities can have a more direct link with agriculture via urban and peri-
urban agriculture
15. URBAN RURAL
Threats to Urban Food Security
Natural calamities and pest outbreaks
Macro-economic policy changes
Unseasonal weather patterns
Rising energy prices
Competition from energy sector
Temporary illness/ unemployment
Poverty
Underinvestment in agriculture
Competition for land
Changing demographics
HIV
Climate Change
Fragility of agro-ecosystems
Agricultural policy Changes
17. Approaches to ensure future surpluses in the โHinterlandโ
and in the global food supply chain?
โข Closing the yield gap โ e.g. increasing farmer access to better seeds,
fertilizers, water and pest management practices, equipment, training;
improving market infrastructure and transport, etc.
โข Increasing production limits โ e.g. modern biotechnology to improve
seed
โข Reducing waste
โข Changing diets
โข Expanding aquaculture
CHALLENGE: All of the above must be done in an
environmentally sustainable manner
18. Policy & Action Interventions - Examples
Availability
Physical
Access
Economic
Access
Utilization
โข Increase
agricultural
productivity
โข Reduce waste
โข Encourage
sustainable
intโl trade
โข Review
agricultural/
biofuel policies
โข Improve
transport and
infrastructure
โข Link farmers to
markets
โข Reduce waste
โข Biofortification,
dietary supple-
ments, education
โข Improve health
care
โข Monitor nutritional
security progress
โข Improve infra-
structure/hygiene
โข Social
programs,
safety nets
โข Increase
entrepreneurial
skills of farmers
โข Non-farm
employment
INVESTMENTS
20. ASEAN
ASIA-PACIFIC
EUROPE & AMERICAS
Global Food Supply Chain
Conceptualization of the inter-relationships between Food
Supply and Demand at regional and global levels --
Distribution
Food Security: geographic connectivity
22. Why should Singapore be concerned?
โข Net food importing country with limited land
resources and largely urban environment
โข Imports over 90% of its food
โข Local production accounts for 23% eggs, 4% fish,
7% leafy vegetables consumed
ASEAN
ASIA-PACIFIC
EUROPE & AMERICAS
Singaporeโs food sources
23. Enhancing local food supply resilience
โข Increase self production of selected items
โข Diversify food sources
โข Develop non-traditional supply chains through smart
partnerships
โข Urban and Peri-urban Agriculture (UPA)
โ Agroparks; Aquazones
โ Vertical farming
โ Roof top aquaponics, aeroponics, etc
โข Stockpiles
โข Reduce waste
โข Etc.
โNational Food Security depends on Regional
and Global Food Securityโ
24. Conclusions
โข Food security in Asia needs to be a priority โ threat
of hunger & instability could increase
โข Urban dimensions of food security merit distinct
attention
โข Food security is multi-dimensional
โข There is no quick fix
โข More interconnected policy making is critical
โข More holistic approach is required
โข For Singapore, a broad-based, multi-sectoral,
cross-nation approach is needed to ensure urban
food security
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