Regional Snapshot-Housing (March 2021)

Atlanta Regional Commission’s
Regional Housing Snapshot 2021
Presented by
Erik Woodworth
Research & Data Visualization Coordinator, ARC
Data Scientist, Neighborhood Nexus
ewoodworth@atlantaregional.org
Community Resources Committee (CRC)
March 10th, 2021

20.9%
23.8%
23.9%
29.8%
30.8%
31.7%
33.3%
33.3%
34.9%
38.8%
42.3%
44.1%
58.7%
65.9%
62.6%
57.6%
60.2%
54.4%
58.5%
56.9%
50.8%
47.8%
46.2%
46.1%
20.4%
10.3%
13.5%
12.5%
9.0%
13.9%
8.3%
9.8%
14.3%
13.4%
11.5%
9.7%
Cobb
Fayette
Cherokee
Gwinnett
Douglas
ARC 10
Rockdale
Henry
Fulton
DeKalb
City of Atlanta
Clayton
Less than Very Confident Very confident Other*
Confidence in paying mortgage or rent amidst COVID pandemic
Metro Atlanta Speaks Survey responses by county (plus City of Atlanta), 2020

40.3% 36.9%
25.0%
15.4%
48.6% 52.5%
63.3%
56.3%
11.1% 10.6% 11.6%
28.3%
18-34 35-49 50-64 65+
Less than Very Confident Very confident Other*
Confidence in paying mortgage or rent amidst COVID pandemic
Metro Atlanta Speaks Survey responses by respondents’ age, income, and ethnicity, 2020
41.6%
21.3%
44.5% 42.3%
48.4%
60.9%
47.7% 48.9%
10.0%
17.8%
7.8% 8.8%
Black White Other Latino*
By Age By Race & Ethnicity

Case-Shiller Home Price Index
Comparison of Monthly Average by MSA, Jan. 2000 to Dec. 2020
Compared to other MSAs, Atlanta is a
“relatively” affordable place to purchase a
home. The recent price trend is comparable to
Dallas and less steep than the national
average.

Building Permits for New Private Housing
Total Structures for Atlanta CBSA by Building Type, 2000 to 2020
All Residential Structures
Single Family structures
Number
of
structures
Building activity is down considerably
compared to the pre-recession high with a
small YTY increase for SF structures and a
decline the number of MF buildings.

For-Sale Inventory Vs.
YTY Percent Change in Median List Price
Monthly YTY Percent Change in Atlanta CBSA, July 2017 to Jan. 2021
Active Listings
YTY Percent Change
in Median List Price
Number
of
Active
Listings
YTY
Percent
Change
in
Median
List
Price
There is a clear inverse relationship
between for-sale inventory and list prices,
with a small dip in prices early in the
pandemic as inventory spiked followed by a
sharp increase in prices while active listings
dropped.

Median Days on the Market
Monthly median days and YTY percent change in Atlanta CBSA,
July 2017 to Jan. 2021
Median
Number
of
Days
YTY
Percent
Change
Median Days on the Market YTY Percent Change
Uncertainty, low interest rates, stimulus income,
high demand, and a low supply of on-market
homes are likely all at the root of the quick
turnover rate and increasing home sale prices
during the pandemic

Affordable Rent*
$1,148
$1,215
$1,287
$1,344
$1,425
$1,508 $1,526
$1,602
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
$1,600
$1,800
Jan-14
Mar-14
May-14
Jul-14
Sep-14
Nov-14
Jan-15
Mar-15
May-15
Jul-15
Sep-15
Nov-15
Jan-16
Mar-16
May-16
Jul-16
Sep-16
Nov-16
Jan-17
Mar-17
May-17
Jul-17
Sep-17
Nov-17
Jan-18
Mar-18
May-18
Jul-18
Sep-18
Nov-18
Jan-19
Mar-19
May-19
Jul-19
Sep-19
Nov-19
Jan-20
Mar-20
May-20
Jul-20
Sep-20
Nov-20
Jan-21
US
Dollars,
not
adjusted
for
inflation
$910
$991
$1,044 $1,084
$1,122
Data Sources:
Zillow Observed Rent Index
US Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-year estimates
$1,183
Affordable Rent
30% of the median monthly income
among renter households
Zillow Observed
Rent Index (ZORI)
Affordable Vs. Observed Rent
Atlanta MSA, 2014 to 2019
with observed rent index extended to Jan. 2021
Since 2014, the Atlanta metro region has
experienced on average a 7.2% YTY increase in
the gap between affordable and observed rent

Data Source:
Zillow Observed Rent Index
Metro Comparison of Observed Rent Trends
Zillow observed rent index (ZORI) and 5-year percent change, August 2020
$1,687
$2,633 $2,527
$1,765 $1,561 $1,600 $1,479
$2,096 $1,939 $1,566
$2,570
$3,123
$0
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
United States New York, NY Los Angeles-Long
Beach-Anaheim,
CA
Chicago, IL Dallas-Fort
Worth, TX
Philadelphia, PA Houston, TX Washington, DC Miami-Fort
Lauderdale, FL
Atlanta, GA Boston, MA San Francisco, CA
ZORI
16%
6%
21%
10%
17%
13%
4%
8%
12%
27%
13% 14%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Percent
Change
in
ZORI
Compared to other large metros, Atlanta
has reported the quickest 5-year increase
in rent, with a 27% difference between
rent in August 2015 and August 2020.

z
Data Source:
US Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-year Estimates
*Spending more than 30% of income on housing costs
38.4% 37.3%
39.3%
41.8% 40.6%
37.6%
35.9% 35.7%
33.6% 32.5% 32.0% 32.1% 31.5%
50.6%
48.8%
53.0% 53.6% 54.7% 53.7%
51.7% 52.5%
49.2% 48.9% 48.7% 49.9% 50.0%
32.9% 31.9% 32.6%
35.4%
32.4%
27.9%
25.9% 24.8%
23.3%
21.4% 21.2% 21.1% 20.2%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
2
0
0
7
2
0
0
8
2
0
0
9
2
0
1
0
2
0
1
1
2
0
1
2
2
0
1
3
2
0
1
4
2
0
1
5
2
0
1
6
2
0
1
7
2
0
1
8
2
0
1
9
Percent
of
Households
All Households
Renter Households
Owner Households
Percent of Cost-Burdened Households*
by Tenure
ARC 10-County Region, 2007 to 2019
For the last 10+ years, roughly half of the
renter households in the region have been
paying more than 30% of their income on
housing, while the proportion of cost-
burdened owners has been steadily
declining.

Data Source:
US Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-year Estimates *Spending more than 30% of income on housing costs
0K
50K
100K
150K
200K
250K
300K
350K
2
0
0
7
2
0
0
8
2
0
0
9
2
0
1
0
2
0
1
1
2
0
1
2
2
0
1
3
2
0
1
4
2
0
1
5
2
0
1
6
2
0
1
7
2
0
1
8
2
0
1
9
Number
of
Households
Renters Owners
Since 2007, the region has experienced
an average increase of 7,420 cost-
burdened renter households per year.
During the same time, the number of
cost-burdened owners has declined by
an average of 9,904 households each
year.
Number of Cost-Burdened Households*
by Tenure

Data Source:
US Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-year Estimates
*Spending more than 30% of income on housing costs
88.0% 89.0% 88.5%
90.5% 90.8% 89.4% 89.6% 89.8% 90.5% 90.1%
87.6% 87.8% 89.7%
74.0% 75.4% 75.2% 74.9% 76.3% 76.0% 74.8% 75.0%
77.6%
74.2%
77.6% 79.3% 78.4%
51.3% 50.8%
48.0%
51.4%
47.8% 46.1%
43.0%
47.3%
44.5%
50.1%
52.2%
57.8%
60.1%
29.9% 29.1% 27.7%
31.0%
27.1%
22.4%
19.4% 21.3%
19.0% 20.3%
22.3%
25.6%
28.2%
9.6% 9.5% 8.9% 8.8% 7.6%
5.7% 5.3% 4.2% 4.4% 4.1% 4.0% 4.6% 4.1%
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2
0
0
7
2
0
0
8
2
0
0
9
2
0
1
0
2
0
1
1
2
0
1
2
2
0
1
3
2
0
1
4
2
0
1
5
2
0
1
6
2
0
1
7
2
0
1
8
2
0
1
9
Percent
of
Households
Less than $20,000
$20,000 to $34,999
$35,000 to $49,999
$50,000 to $74,999
$75,000 or more
Percent of Cost-Burdened Households*
by Income
While the proportion of cost-burdened
households with incomes less than $35,000
has been consistently high over the last
decade, the proportion of cost-burdened
households with incomes between $35,000
and $50,000 has increased significantly in
recent years.

Data Source:
US Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-year Estimates *Spending more than 30% of income on rent and utilities
Percent of Cost-Burdened Renter
Households* by Income
80.6% 80.8% 81.0%
78.9%
82.8%
84.8% 84.0%
86.8%
88.6% 88.7%
90.9% 91.5% 91.8%
36.2% 36.6%
38.5% 37.8%
40.2% 41.2% 42.9%
48.2%
45.4%
56.3%
61.0%
70.0%
71.9%
9.8% 10.5% 10.1%
12.6% 13.1%
10.3% 10.7%
15.9% 14.6%
17.3%
22.3%
27.1%
30.6%
0.8% 1.7% 1.7% 2.5% 3.6% 2.3% 2.0% 1.2% 2.1% 3.2% 2.6% 2.9% 4.0%
91.5% 92.3% 91.9% 93.2% 94.7% 93.8% 93.5% 93.3% 94.3% 93.3%
89.9% 89.5% 90.9%
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2
0
0
7
2
0
0
8
2
0
0
9
2
0
1
0
2
0
1
1
2
0
1
2
2
0
1
3
2
0
1
4
2
0
1
5
2
0
1
6
2
0
1
7
2
0
1
8
2
0
1
9
Percent
of
Households
$20,000 to $34,999
$35,000 to $49,999
$50,000 to $74,999
$75,000 or more
Less than $20,000
An increasing proportion of renters making less
than $75K are paying more than 30% of their
income on rent and utilities. The most rapid
increase is among households earning between
$35K and $50K.

Percent POC, 2019
Percent
Cost
Burdened*
Households,
2019
Data Source:
US Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-year Estimates, 2015-19 *Spending more than 30% of income on housing costs
Racial Disparity in
Housing Affordability
ARC 10-County Region, 2019
Addressing housing, as with so many other issues in the Atlanta
metro region, involves addressing issues of racial inequity. For
every 4 percentage points increase in the population of people of
color, the proportion of cost-burden households is predicted to
increases by 1 percent

137 120 61 62
230
240
270
1,060
52 43
1,381
662
139 93
974
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
Cherokee Clayton Cobb DeKalb Douglas Fayette Fulton Gwinnett Henry Rockdale City of
Atlanta
Number
of
Housing
Units
New Owner Units
New Renter Units
Based on analysis by KB Advisory Group
Annual Housing Demand Forecast for 70% AMI and lower
Annual demand for new units by county (and City of Atlanta), 2020 to 2025
Based on the status quo (i.e., we have the same affordability issues), the region needs to build about 4,700 units
annually to meet demand among households earning 70% or less of the regional AMI.

Base on analysis by KB Advisory Group
Annual Housing Demand Forecast for 70% AMI and higher
Annual demand for new units by county (and City of Atlanta), 2020 to 2025
2,228
674
2,026 2,393
467 411
2,972 3,176
1,732
677
1,700
1,249
423
1,053
3,010
142 308
4,892
1,852
503
409
4,258
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
Cherokee Clayton Cobb DeKalb Douglas Fayette Fulton Gwinnett Henry Rockdale City of
Atlanta
Number
of
Housing
Units
New Owner Units
New Renter Units
Based on the status quo (i.e., we have the same affordability issues), the region needs to build about
31,000 units annually to meet demand among households earning 70% or more of the regional AMI.

Cost-Burdened Owner Households with incomes of $75K or below
ARC 10-Counties, 2019
Data Source:
US Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-year Estimates, 2015-19
9,106
55,067
34,666
41,104
35,824
6,623
K
50K
100K
150K
200K
Under 20K 20K-50K 50K-75K
Number
of
Households
Not Cost Burdened
Cost Burdened
Extreme Cost Burden
In the ARC 10-County Region, 182,390 owner households with incomes of $75K or below paid 30% or more
of their income toward housing costs in 2019. Of these households, 83,551 paid 50% or more.

Cost-Burdened Renter Households with incomes of $75K or below
ARC 10-Counties, 2019
Data Source:
US Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-year Estimates, 2015-19
In the ARC 10-County Region, 301,316 renter households with incomes of $75K or below paid 30% or more
of their income toward rent and utilities in 2019. Of these households, 145,906 paid 50% or more.
11,071
115,835 28,504
88,006
56,497
1,403
K
50K
100K
150K
200K
250K
Under 20K 20K-50K 50K-75K
Not Cost Burdened
Cost Burdened
Extreme Cost Burden

Metro Atlanta Housing Strategy
metroatlhousing.org
Coming this Summer
ü Sitewide UI/UX improvements
ü County profile pages including
demand forecasts
ü New and improved Data Explorer

Using Data to Promote Smart Housing Policy and Strategic Interventions
Evictions Amidst a Pandemic

Atlanta Region Eviction Tracker
metroatlhousing.org/eviction-tracker
In September 2020, in collaboration with Georgia Tech
and the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, the ARC
released the Atlanta Region Eviction Tracker. The
tracker is updated weekly, although Fulton County’s
census tract-level counts have been unavailable since
September 2020 due to the omission of addresses
from the case details provided via the Fulton
Magistrate Court public search site.

Sarah Stein (Project Lead)
Research Adviser
Community and Economic
Development
Pearse Haley
Research Analyst
Center for Workforce Engagement
and Opportunity
Nisha Sutaria
Research Analyst
Community and Economic
Development
Erik Woodworth (Project Lead)
Research & Data Visualization Coordinator
Atlanta Regional Commission
Data Scientist
Neighborhood Nexus
John Sasser
Assistant Web Developer
Neighborhood Nexus
Alan Grosse
Assistant Web Developer
Neighborhood Nexus
Elora Raymond, PhD (Project Lead)
Assistant Professor
School of City and Regional Planning
Georgia Institute of Technology
Subhro Guhathakurta, PhD
Chair, School of City and Regional Planning
Director, Center for Spatial Planning Analytics and Visualization
Rama Sivakumar, MS
Senior Research Engineer,
Center for Spatial Planning Analytics and Visualization
Gordon Zhang, PhD
Research Scientist,
Center for Spatial Planning Analytics and Visualization
Eviction Tracking Team

§ While eviction filings are not the same as evictions themselves, they do portend potential
displacement and housing instability for those against which the filings are initiated.
§ The lapse in the federal eviction moratorium and $600 unemployment add-on in August was
evidenced by a 96% higher number of filings across the 5-county region for first week of
September compared to the same week in 2019.
§ While filings were low during the summer lockdown (only spiking with the lapse of the eviction
moratorium and additional UI assistance), they have since been rising toward pre-pandemic levels
§ While the CDC-issued ban on evictions (extended to March 31st by the Biden administration) goes
a long way to protect renters from being ejected from their homes for the moment, it does not
address the accrued missed rent payments.
Tracking Evictions Amidst the Pandemic

Cobb DeKalb Fulton Gwinnett
Initial Filings* 1400 2690 3640 1530
Answers 240 460 1060 250
Answer Rate 17% 17% 29% 16%
17% 17%
29%
16%
Supporting Legal Services and Outreach
Answer
No Answer
* in August 2020
www.wabe.org/tenants-must-respond-to-eviction-notices-to-get-hearings-but-many-may-have-missed-the-deadline/

County Building Address Eviction Filings in August 2020
Fulton 3200 Lakeview Place, College Park GA 30337 38
Gwinnett 1100 Indian Trail Lilburn Road, Norcross GA 30093 35
Dekalb 1401 N. Hairston Road, Stone Mountain GA 30083 27
Fulton 250 Piedmont Ave NE, Atlanta GA 30308 26
Fulton 4001 Lakemont Drive, College Park GA 30337 25
Clayton 8050 Taylor Road, Riverdale, GA 30274 24
Dekalb 3515 Pleasantdale Road, Doraville GA 30340 19
Clayton 8050 Tara Blvd, Jonesboro, GA 30236 18
Dekalb 100 Camellia Lane, Lithonia GA 30058 17
Clayton 5758 Hwy 85, Riverdale, GA 30274 17
Gwinnett 1500 Willow Trail Drive, Norcross GA 30093 15
Identifying Hotspots of Eviction Filings

urban.org/features/where-prioritize-emergency-rental-assistance-keep-renters-their-homes
Urban Institute’s Emergency Rental
Assistance Priority Index

Estimating Need and Targeting
Rental Assistance The Urban Institute’s Rental Assistance Priority Index was
a good predictor of where filings were being reported in
the early stages of the pandemic. As such, we were able
to use this index along along with American Community
Survey estimates of the number lower-income / high-cost-
burdened households to arrive at a rough guess of about
83K households potentially needing rental assistance due
to the COVID pandemic in the ARC 10-County Region.

Tenant Assistant Programs within the Region
§ DeKalb County – using $21 million allocated in December as part of the second federal stimulus package – is
currently accepting applications via its Tenant-Landlord Assistance Coalition (TLAC) to provide assistance
(including rent, rent arrearage, utilities, utility arrearage and other housing costs) for households impacted by
the pandemic and earning 80% or less of area median income (based on family composition and size).
§ Fulton County - with $18 million from the same pot of money of federal money as DeKalb – began accepting
applications to its rental assistance program on March 1st.
§ Using both CARES Act and philanthropic money, the non-profit Star-C has been providing direct assistance
throughout the pandemic for residents across the metro region via its Eviction Relief Fund.
§ Launched in September 2020, Saving Our Atlanta Region’s Residents (SOARR) was created by a consortium of
non-profits and local advocacy groups, including the ARC, to raise and disburse philanthropic money to address
the issue region-wide. Application requirements and a portal for accessing this assistance is forthcoming.
§ The Atlanta Volunteer Legal Fund (AVLF) is providing free legal advice and help to those facing eviction in
Fulton County. Atlanta Legal Aid is providing a similar service for residents of Fulton, DeKalb, Gwinnett, Cobb,
and Clayton counties.

Regional Snapshot-Housing (March 2021)

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