Charles Drake This session will continue the discussion of the Southeast Florida Regional Climate Change Compact in SE Florida. Understanding and preparing for climate change on a local level is among the most significant and timely sustainability issues facing Florida and its vulnerability to those impacts. The issues cross the social, built, and natural environments and the jurisdictional lines of local government. The session will further explore national and state policy and funding issues, as well as legal and organizational aspects of addressing climate change impacts.

1. Florida Chapter of the American Planning Association Fall Conference September 7-10, 2011

3. WATER BALANCE Water in = Water Out +/- Storage Precipitation + Groundwaterin + Surface Waterin = Evapotranspiration – Groundwaterout – Surface Waterout+/- Storage Florida Chapter of the American Planning Association Fall Conference September 7-10, 2011

4. WATER BALANCE On average, Florida receives around 50”/ yr of rain, with around 37”/ yr of ET This leaves approximately 13”/yr to recharge surface water and groundwater Any increase in ET will reduce the water available for recharge of groundwater Florida Chapter of the American Planning Association Fall Conference September 7-10, 2011

5. “Evaluating Sustainability of Future Water Demands Under Future Climate Change Scenarios” Commissioned by the Natural Resources Defense Council Conducted by Tetra Tech, Inc. in July 2010 Further refinement and evaluation of work conducted by IPCC, USGS and others Provides projections of future available freshwater due to changing climate pattern Florida Chapter of the American Planning Association Fall Conference September 7-10, 2011

6. “Evaluating Sustainability of Future Water Demands Under Future Climate Change Scenarios” Report is not a prediction that water shortages will occur, but rather an indication of where they will occur This gives water managers opportunity manage supply and demand Florida’s water management districts prepare water supply plans on 20 year horizon with 5 year updates Florida Chapter of the American Planning Association Fall Conference September 7-10, 2011

7. GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE MODELS GCMs are relied upon to provide plausible, physically based estimates of climate response to changes in boundary conditions and increasing atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations Many GCMs are in use and are included in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4, 2007) Florida Chapter of the American Planning Association Fall Conference September 7-10, 2011

8. GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE MODELS The complexity of GCMs produce varied responses especially when precipitation is varied For impact studies, it is appropriate to use an ensemble of multiple models to represent a range of future conditions As with any mathematical model, there is no unique solution Florida Chapter of the American Planning Association Fall Conference September 7-10, 2011

9. GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE MODELS For these simulations, a set of 16 GCMs were used for 21st century predictions Output from the World Climate Research Programme’s (WCRPs) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 was used GCM results were spatially downsized to regions resulting in 12km x 12km grid 54,000 cells over 48 conterminous United States Florida Chapter of the American Planning Association Fall Conference September 7-10, 2011

10. MEAN CHANGES IN TEMPERATURE 2020-2039 Florida Chapter of the American Planning Association Fall Conference September 7-10, 2011

11. Mean Changes in Temperature2040- 2059 Florida Chapter of the American Planning Association Fall Conference September 7-10, 2011

12. Days with Peak Temperature >900 F (www.globalchange.gov/usimpacts) Florida Chapter of the American Planning Association Fall Conference September 7-10, 2011

13. IMPACT OF TEMPERATURE CHANGES Increases in temperature are likely to cause decrease in precipitation due to increased evaporation Increased temperature results also in increased evapotranspiration (ET) Less precipitation and more ET results in less available water for recharge and available water Florida Chapter of the American Planning Association Fall Conference September 7-10, 2011

14. CHANGES IN PRECIPATION WITH CLIMATE CHANGE 2020-2039 Florida Chapter of the American Planning Association Fall Conference September 7-10, 2011

15. CHANGES IN PRECIPATION 2040-2059 MEDIAN OF 16 GCMs Florida Chapter of the American Planning Association Fall Conference September 7-10, 2011

16. AVAILABLE PRECIPITATION 2040-2059 COMPARED TO 1934-2000 Florida Chapter of the American Planning Association Fall Conference September 7-10, 2011

17. RISK TO AVAILABLE WATER SUPPLY WITHOUT CLIMATE CHANGE Florida Chapter of the American Planning Association Fall Conference September 7-10, 2011

18. RISK TO WATER AVAILABILITY WITH CLIMATE CHANGE Florida Chapter of the American Planning Association Fall Conference September 7-10, 2011

19. CHANGES IN AVAILABLE AVAILABLE PRECIPITATION Change due to change in ET Central Florida estimated to have >-5.0”/ yr South Florida estimated to have +0.0-5.0”/ yr Five inches less precipitation in Orange County is approximately 238,000,000 gallons per day 1”/ square mile=17,378,560 gallons per square mile) Florida Chapter of the American Planning Association Fall Conference September 7-10, 2011

20. Sea Level Rise Rise in sea level will cause increase in saltwater intrusion Saltwater could move inland via rivers, canals, etc (at least up to control structures) Increased saltwater head pressure, due to density difference, will restrict/ hold back freshwater out flows of groundwater and surface water, elevation may not decrease as much Florida Chapter of the American Planning Association Fall Conference September 7-10, 2011

22. Potential Impacts of Sea Level Rise As sea level rises, salt water will move inland through rivers and canals St. Johns River is predicted to increase in elevation, salt water will move inland Peace River discharges into Charlotte Harbor. Rising sea levels will push salt water into the estuary, changing the habitat This may also affect the surface water intake at the Peace River Manasota Regional Water Supply Authority Florida Chapter of the American Planning Association Fall Conference September 7-10, 2011

28. NORTHWEST FLORIDA Florida Chapter of the American Planning Association Fall Conference September 7-10, 2011

29. SWFWMD SWUCA Florida Chapter of the American Planning Association Fall Conference September 7-10, 2011

30. SWFWMD SWUCA GOALS Florida Chapter of the American Planning Association Fall Conference September 7-10, 2011 Restore minimum levels to priority lakes in the Lake Wales Ridge Restore minimum flows to the upper Peace River Reduce the rate of saltwater intrusion in coastal Hillsborough, Manatee and Sarasota counties Ensure sufficient water supplies for all existing and projected reasonable-beneficial uses Protect investments of existing water use permittees

31. CENTRAL FLORIDA WATER INITIATIVESJRWMD, SFWMD, SWFWMD Florida Chapter of the American Planning Association Fall Conference September 7-10, 2011 Fresh groundwater withdrawals are limited to 650 million gallons per day No new fresh groundwater withdrawals are allowed beyond 2013; withdrawal is limited to permitted 2013 allocation Utilities must have alternative or supplemental water supplies on-line by 2013 Due to reduction in groundwater withdrawals, the WMDs are discussing modification of existing WUPs to extend the date or quantity of water

32. PROJECTED CHANGES IN UPPER FLORIDAN AQUIFER Florida Chapter of the American Planning Association Fall Conference September 7-10, 2011

33. CONCLUSIONS TO PROJECTED WATER AVAILABILITY Florida Chapter of the American Planning Association Fall Conference September 7-10, 2011 Results of median GCMs show increase in temperature and ET with corresponding decrease in available recharge Increase in sea level rise will cause inland movement of saltwater interface into surface water and groundwater This may cause increase in freshwater elevation but may be offset by increase ET

34. CONCLUSIONS TO PROJECTED WATER AVAILABILITY Florida Chapter of the American Planning Association Fall Conference September 7-10, 2011 SWFWMD and SJRWMD have implemented recovery strategies and limits on fresh groundwater withdrawal NWFWMD and SRWMD are continuing investigation of declining groundwater supplies Reductions in fresh groundwater and surface water will drive the use of brackish groundwater and/ or ocean water desalination IMPACT ON WATER POLICY?

35. Florida Chapter of the American Planning Association Fall Conference September 7-10, 2011