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Ayalneh Bogale_2023 AGRODEP Annual Conference

  1. Ayalneh Bogale and Manzamasso Hodjo Building Resilience to Multiple Shocks and Stresses to Protect Development Gains in Ethiopia
  2. #2023 AGRODEP CONFERENCE  Introduction  Main triggers of natural and human-induced disasters in Ethiopia  Genesis and institutionalization of effective response and resilience building in Ethiopia  Salient features of policies and strategies for effective response and resilience  Empirical evidence on change in household resilience  Lessons learned: drivers of effective response and resilience building  Strategic pathways Outline of the presentation
  3. 1. Introduction  Background  Mounting evidence points to profound economic transformation Ethiopia has achieved from 1995 to 2016  Ethiopia is also exposed to a wide range of disasters: natural and human induced  If the country continues a business-as-usual approach to crisis response, it will not be able to manage the increasing scale of the challenges  Thus, there is call by all stakeholders for a paradigm shift in the way the country deals with communities at risk if it has to sustain the recent development gains  Main objective - reviewing and documenting strategic interventions by the GoE in terms of adopting policies, strategies and programmes, building the necessary institutional structures that enhance resilience to multiple shocks.
  4. Figure 1. Ethiopia basic statistics GDP (Cons 2015 US$)= 95.07 bill 37% 24% 39% CPI = 34.7 Food = 43.4 Foreign exchange earning = US$ 3.62 bill (%) 25.1 15.8 15.8 11.1 4.4 114.6 mil 2.53% US$ 827 3.48% Share of pop. in extreme poverty = 22%
  5.  Ethiopia has characterized its economic policy as “agricultural development-led industrialization,” in mid- 1990s.  Puts an emphasis on raising productivity of smallholder farmers, improve food security and generate broadly shared income gains  Results  agricultural output more than tripled between 1993 and 2018, (average 5% per year)  share of the Ethiopian population subsisting on less than US$1.90/day had been cut in half by 2015,  fraction of children under age five suffering from stunting fell from 67 percent in 1992 in to 37 percent in 2019  Since 2015, however, agricultural output in Ethiopia appears to have stagnated  resilience and sustainability
  6.  Conceptual understanding of resilience  The concept of resilience has been defined, researched, and debated across many academic disciplines as well as operational sectors and agencies, and has grown increasingly popular in recent years in development and policy discourse  UNISDR (2005), DFID (2011), USAID (2012), UN Common Guidance on Helping Build Resilient Societies (UN, 2020)  FAO (2021) - “the ability to prevent disasters and crises as well as to anticipate, absorb, accommodate or recover from them in a timely, efficient and sustainable manner. This includes protecting, restoring and improving livelihoods systems in the face of threats that impact agriculture, nutrition, food security and food safety."
  7.  Resilience is not an outcome, but a capacity that influences outcomes: common and crucial capabilities:  Anticipative capacity: ability to take early action in anticipation of a potential threat,  Preventive capacity: ability to implement activities and take measures to reduce existing risks and avoid the creation of new risks,  Absorptive capacity: ability to take protective action and ‘bounce back’ after a shock,  Adaptive capacity: The ability to make incremental adjustments, modifications or changes to the characteristics of systems,  Transformative capacity: The ability to create a fundamentally new system when ecological, economic or social structures make the existing system untenable.
  8. Figure 2. The Resilience Conceptual Framework Source: DFID, 2011
  9. 2. Main Triggers of Natural and Human-induced Disasters in Ethiopia - Ethiopia: Disaster risk profile - Among the most disaster-prone countries in Africa - Rely disproportionately on annual crops cultivated on marginal lands - Insecure land tenure - Land productivity is generally very low
  10. Drought and Weather- related Disasters 1972–1973 The 1972/73 Famine: “The unknown famine” 1984–1985 The 1984/85 Famine: Drought, War and Policy Failure 2010–2011 The 2010/11 Drought: Ethiopia avoided famine- a step towards resilience 2015–2016 The 2015/16 Drought: From saving lives to protecting livelihoods
  11. 3. Genesis and Institutionalization of effective response and resilience in Ethiopia  1974 The pioneering organization was the Relief and Rehabilitation Commission (RRC) established in 1974  1995 RRC was restructured and named Disaster Prevention and Preparedness Commission (DPPC) in 1995 with significant changes in mandate to strengthen the linkages between relief and early warning and response  2004 DPPC was renamed again as the Disaster Prevention and Preparedness Agency (DPPA) in 2004 without significant change in the mandate  2007 Transformed into Disaster Risk Management and Food Security Sector (DRMFSS) in 2007  2015 The latest institutional change created the National Disaster Risk Management Commission (NDRMC) in 2015
  12. The National Disaster Preparedness and Prevention Strategy (NDPPS) – 1989 The National Policy on Disaster Prevention and Management (NPDPM) - 1993 The National Policy and Strategy on Disaster Risk Management (NPSDRM) - 2013 National and Sectoral Policies and Strategies Disaster Risk Management Strategic Programme and Investment Framework (DRM SPIF) - 2014 International Conventions and Instruments 4. Salient features of policies and strategies for effective response and resilience
  13. 5. Empirical evidence on change in household resilience  Resilience has become promising concept for understanding how households cope with and recover from shocks and stressors  Many attempts at measuring resilience have been proposed over recent years: quantitative and qualitative  Employs Resilience Index Measurement and Analysis (RIMA)  RIMA approximates household resilience using the resilience capacity index (RCI).  RCI is a statistic that summarizes a household’s status with respect to some selected welfare indicator (food insecurity)  It is based on four pillars, namely access to basic services (ABS), assets (AST), social safety nets (SSN) and adaptative capacity (AC).
  14.  Two stage procedure to estimate RCI  Factor analysis (FA) to identify the attributes, or “pillars,” that contribute to household resilience, starting with observed variables.  RCI was obtained using a latent variable model, termed MIMIC (Multiple Indicators Multiple Causes)  The RCI of a household, i at time t, is a function of:  Access to Basic Services (ABS)  Assets (AST)  Adaptive Capacity (AC)  Social Safety Networks (SSN)  Employed the web-based Shiny RIMA tool
  15. Item Variables Means difference St Err t-value 2011 2018 RCI Resilience Capacity Index 22.56 24.48 1.92*** 0.425 4.5 ABS Inverse distance to water point 0.033 0.143 0.11*** 0.011 9.85 Access to toilets 0.459 0.568 0.108*** 0.025 4.4 Inverse distance to medical centre 0.191 0.379 0.188*** 0.04 4.75 Access to electricity 0.202 0.501 0.298*** 0.024 12.45 Assets Wealth Index 0.06 0.144 0.084*** 0.007 11.3 Agric tools index 0.088 0.097 0.008* 0.005 1.65 Tropical livestock Units 2.841 2.776 -0.065 0.204 -0.3 Agriculture Land area 0.698 0.382 -0.316*** 0.05 -6.4 Use of fertilizers 0.477 0.244 -0.233*** 0.033 -7.1 SSN Cash assistance 330.4 1494.5 1164.11*** 63.393 18.35 Informal Transfer 479.4 2197.8 1718.45*** 472.9 3.65 In kind Assistance 36.46 110.31 73.847*** 11.931 6.2 Food assistance 495.0 1021.6 526.596*** 83.899 6.3 AC Access to education 0.399 0.123 -0.276*** 0.021 -13.15 Inv dependency ratio 1.397 1.621 0.225*** 0.054 4.15 Ag diversity Index 0.119 0.105 -0.014*** 0.007 -1.9 Income diversity index 0.352 0.537 0.185*** 0.009 20.6 Food security FCS 6.065 6.232 0.167*** 0.043 3.9 HDDS 39.37 39.573 0.2 0.338 -0.6 Table 1. Two-sample T-test results for change in RCI and its pillar variables b/n 2011 and 2018
  16. Figure 5. Relative importance of pillars in household RCI for 2011 and 2018
  17. Figure 6. Change in resilience for male and female-headed households 21.21 21.43 24.76 25.87 MALE FEMALE RCI Gender 2011 2018
  18. Figure 7. Relative importance of pillars in RCI for male and female-headed households 2011 2018
  19. 6. Lessons Learned: Drivers for Effective Response and Resilience Building Sustained Economic Growth and Mainstreaming DRR Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP) Early Warning System and Coordination of Response/actors Focus on most Vulnerable Livelihoods- Pastoral Livelihoods Conflict Reduction and Peace Building
  20. 7. Strategic pathways Conflict management and peace building Promote public and private investment in agriculture and natural resources Adaptation to climate change Promote access to input and output markets Strengthen governance structure Emphasize on inclusion of the most vulnerable groups and environment