Presentation on "The Past, Present, and Future of Agriculture Policy in Africa" by Ousmane Badiane, AKADEMIYA2063 Executive Chairperson

1. The Past, Present and Future
of Agriculture Policy in Africa
Ousmane Badiane Julie Collins John Ulimwengu

2. Outline
 KEY MESSAGE
 REVIEW OF RECENT GROWTH RECOVERY
 ROLE OF POLICIES IN GROWTH PERFORMANCE
 CHARACTERISTICS OF GOOD POLICIES
 CREATING THE CONDITIONS FOR GOOD POLICIES
CONCLUSIONS

3. KEY MESSAGES
1. Good Policies may not be a solution for everything
2. But Bad Policies are a problem for everything else
 Better policies replaced bad policies ushering in
unprecedented, decade-long, broad-based recovery
 Further policy improvement required to sustain and
accelerate recovery and foster economic transformation

4. 0.9
1.1
1.3
1.5
1.7
1.9
2.1
2.3
2.5
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
East Asia & Pacific Europe & Central Asia
Latin America & Caribbean Middle East & North Africa
Fastest Growing Agricultural Sector in 2000s
Agricultural value added index, 2000-2017 (1=2000)
Agricultural Output Growth Agricultural Productivity Growth

5. Agricultural Sector Growth Trends
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
1961
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
AgriculturalOutputPerWorker
(2004-06constant$)
Year
Ag output per worker actual, SSA-ZAF 1960s growth path
$612
$790
$1,135
1.1% annual
growth rate
1.2% annual growth
rate
3.8% annual growth
rate
to catch up
Source: Authors’ calculations using data from Nin-Pratt (2015) (the original data are from the Food
and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations).
Recent growth has not made up for the lost decades

6. 400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
1961
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
AgriculturalOutputPerWorker
(2004-06constant$)
Year
$612
Source: Authors’ calculations using data from Nin-Pratt (2015) (the original data are from the Food
and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations).
1. Better Managed Exchange Rates
2. Sustainable Fiscal Deficit
3. Lower Inflation
4. Less Market Interference
5. Less Farmer and Private Sector Bias
6. Increased Public Investment
HOW DID WE GET HERE ???

7. HOW DID WE GET HERE ???
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
NRA all products, including non tradables
NRA on Importables
NRA on Exportables
Implicit taxation
agriculture declined
after 1990s
Implicit subsidies for
non-ag. sectors have
declined after 1990s
NRA data based on Anderson, K., and W. A. Masters. 2007.
More Conducive Sector Policies

8. HOW DID WE GET HERE ???
The Impact Improved Sector Policies and Institutions
RRA = Relative Rate of Assistance to Agriculture vs Non-agriculture
Not well aligned with
agricultural policies

9. Conclusion
Risks of Policy Reversal – Threats to transformation goals
 Lack of institutional memory,
 New generation of leaders,
 More open and pluralistic policy systems
 Larger fiscal space
Return to the failed policies of the past ???
or
Pursue Policy Renewal under CAADP and Agenda 2063 ???
 Enhanced Mutual Accountability – Biennial Review; Joint Sector Reviews
 Data and Expertise for evidence-based policies
 Deepen CAADP agenda

10. Policies in Support of Transformation
What Defines Good Policies?
They are based on local / relevant evidence
Have clear, measurable targets, milestones
Undergo rigorous reviews: technical, social, environmental
Are adequately tracked and evaluated
Are open to inclusive consultation and dialogue

11. FINAL MESSAGE
Good Policies may not be a solution for everything
. But Bad Policies are a problem for everything else