3. Lewin Analysis of Health Proposals for Colorado
September 2007
CHS/ Single
Payer
Author
Remaining
Uninsured
Health
Spending
Medicaid/CHP
Subsidies
Benefit Floor
Benefit Cap
Mandates
Solutions for
a Health CO
CO Assn of
State Health
Underwriters
Better Health
Care for CO
0
138,000
487,000
108,600
106,600
($1,400 M)
Obsolete
Progressive
Premium
$271 M
Expand
$595 M
Expand
$1,289 M
Expand
$861 M
Expand
250% FPL
Less than
current law
$35,000
Individual
300% FPL
Basic
400% FPL
Comprehensi
ve
None
Individual
Employer
400% FPL
Basic
HCAC
Comprehensive
None
Individual
Employer
SEIU
$35,000
None
A Plan for
Commission’s
Covering CO 5th Proposal
Committee for
208
CO Health
Commission
Solutions
$50,000
Individual
4.
5. US v. Other G7 Countries
Updated
Canada
France
Germ.
Italy
Japan
UK
Avg
USA
MD visits (2009)
per capita
6.5
6.9
8.2
NA
13.2*
5.0
6.3
3.9
Hosp discharges
per 100 pop
8.4
17.0
26.3
NA
NA
13.3
16.0
13.1
Avg hospital
LOS (2009)
7.7
5.2
7.5
NA
NA
6.8
5.9
5.4
144.0
83.2
(2009)
Hospital days per
100 population
$4,445
$3,974
$4,338
$2,964
NA
$3,433
$ 3,831 $8,232
HC spending
as % of GDP
11.4
11.6
11.6
9.3
NA
9.6
10.6
15.8
LE at birth (2010)
80.8 (08)
80.2
80.5
82 (09)
83
80
81.1
78.7
Infant deaths per
1000 live births
NA
3.6
3.4
3.4
2.3
4.2
3.4
6.1
HC spending
(2010)
per capita (PPP)
(2010)
OECD website : http://stats.oecd.org/index.aspx
The spending per capita numbers were converted from the currency of the country to US dollars by a PPP index.
(2010)
ORIGINAL BY: John A. Nyman, PhD
University of Minnesota
5
6. IOM: Best Care at Lower Cost
7.2%
9.8%
27.5%
INSTITUTE OF
MEDICINE 2012:
US Health Care
Annual Waste
$ 765
Billion
24.8%
17%
13.7%
9. Health Reform in Colorado
2011 Bipartisan legislation to establish a
health care exchange: Connect for Health
2013 Medicaid Expansion endorsed by
Legislature and signed by Governor
Moving forward: focus on Payment Reform
10. Brings together buyers and sellers of insurance
Compare health insurance options and shop for
coverage that will take effect as early as January 1,
2014
Choice of up to 150 different private health
insurance plans from ten carriers
Financial assistance based on income available to
close to 500,000 Coloradans
11. As of October 28th
316,326 visitors
44,945 accounts
created
30,862 calls to
Service Center
3164 purchases
12. Table 2: Estimate of ACA Effect, 2016
With ACA
ACA Impact
2,630,000
2,600,000
-30,000
Small Firm ESI (1-50 employees)
560,000
540,000
-20,000
Other ESI
2,070,000
2,060,000
-10,000
Unreformed Non-group
340,000
60,000
-280,000
Reformed Non-group
0
620,000
620,000
Tax Credit Recipients
0
470,000
470,000
Non-Recipients
0
150,000
150,000
Public Insurance
550,000
710,000
160,000
Uninsured
860,000
400,000
-460,000
Total
4,390,000
4,390,000
ESI
→
→
Source: Dr. Jonathan Gruber’s analysis for the Colorado Health Benefit Exchange, 2011
→
No Reform
13. Research shows significant variation in
health care spending.
Medicare Payments per Enrollee, by Hospital Referral Region, 2009
Source: The Dartmouth Atlas of Health Care.
DENOMINATOR DEFINITION:
A 20% random sample of the enrollment file for beneficiaries age 65-99 enrolled in both Medicare Parts A and B, selected on the basis of the terminal digits in the
Social Security number. Patients enrolled in risk-bearing health maintenance organizations (HMOs) are excluded.
ADJUSTMENTS:
Rates are adjusted for age, sex and race using the indirect method, using the U.S. Medicare population as the standard. Gender-specific rates are age and race
adjusted; race-specific rates are age and sex adjusted.
14. Massachusetts: Private, Medicare & Medicaid
Payment for Professional Procedures
Private Payer
Payment Variation
Min
Price
Max
Price
Office
Visit
$45
$330
MRI
Brain
$104
$646
Colonoscopy
$203
$1,045
Source: Massachusetts Division of Health Care Finance and Policy, Massachusetts Health Care Cost
Trends: Price Variation in Massachusetts Health Care Services, May 2011.
15.
16. Percent of Total Health Care Spending
Concentration of Health Care Spending in the U.S.
Population, 2009
(≥$51,951)
(≥$17,402)
(≥$9,570)
(≥$6,343)
(≥$4,586)
(≥$851)
(<$851)
Note: Dollar amounts in parentheses are the annual expenses per person in each percentile. Population is the civilian noninstitutionalized population, including
those without any health care spending. Health care spending is total payments from all sources (including direct payments from individuals and families,
private insurance, Medicare, Medicaid, and miscellaneous other sources) to hospitals, physicians, other providers (including dental care), and pharmacies;
health insurance premiums are not included.
Source: Kaiser Family Foundation calculations using data from U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality,
Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS), Household Component, 2009.
17.
18.
19. Cooperative would put Colorado on
sustainable path: Spending growing no
faster than the GSP
Savings grow by “bending the
cost curve” by reducing
administrative share and
restraining drug price inflation
20. Figure 4. Share of Colorado population without
health insurance coverage, alternative funding
programs, 2015-24.
Total US government spending is actually higher because of tax breaks for purchase of insurance. Estimate this as $1000 per capita so that our taxes pay $4900 per person toward health care, more than 9 other industrialized countries.
Why is this?
Industry of Denial Management – spend $1.50 to be sure you don’t get $1.00 more of care than you deserve.
Al Gore, the inconvenient truth…. (? Insert video clip)
Having multiple insurance companies is inefficient and wasteful.
The “marketplace” penalizes efficiency, encourages inconsistency, and has absolutely no demonstrable relationship between the price of any single health care product and its actual value.
It has been estimated that by 2026 the expansion will be responsible for adding 22,388 new jobs to Colorado’s economy, with 14,357 of those jobs being added in the first 18 months of the expansion. The same study projects an additional $4.4 billion in additional economic activity for the state as a direct result of the expansion.
Over 50% of the people who would be newly eligible under this expansion are people who are working. Many people who work in retail services, have jobs in construction, take care of other people’s children, and work in the agriculture industry will qualify for coverage under this expansion. In enacting this expansion, Colorado will be helping hardworking families stave off financial disaster because of accident or injury while also giving those families access to preventative care.
Charles Brown, Warren Olson, Dr. Phyllis Resnick (February 2013). Medicaid Expansion: Examining the Impact on Colorado’s Economy. Colorado Health Foundation
Christopher Stiffler, Andrew Ball, Emily Wattman-Turner (December 19, 2012). Expanding Medicaid Makes Colorado’s Workforce and Economy Healthier. Colorado Center on Law and Policy
The Cost Conundrum. Atul Gawande
McAllen, Texas vs Grand Junction Colorado
http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2009/06/01/090601fa_fact_gawande
FOOTNOTES:
For more information about price adjustment, click here.
DENOMINATOR DEFINITION:
A 20% random sample of the enrollment file for beneficiaries age 65-99 enrolled in both Medicare Parts A and B, selected on the basis of the terminal digits in the Social Security number. Patients enrolled in risk-bearing health maintenance organizations (HMOs) are excluded.
ADJUSTMENTS:
Rates are adjusted for age, sex and race using the indirect method, using the U.S. Medicare population as the standard. Gender-specific rates are age and race adjusted; race-specific rates are age and sex adjusted.
A small proportion of the U.S. population accounts for half of all U.S. health care spending. The 5% of the population with higher health care expenses (≥$17,402 annually) was responsible for nearly half (49.5%) of total health care spending, while the 50% of the population with the lowest expenses (<$851) accounted for only 2.9% of total spending.
The Hot Spotters, Atul Gawande