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Painel 3 - Cenários para o mercado de commodities - André Pessoa

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André Pessoa, da Agroconsult, apresenta o resultado das análises sobre o mercado de commodities no Brasil e no mundo durante o Seminário Perspectivas para o Agribusiness 2016-2017, realizado pela BMFBOVESPA, em 16/06/2016, em São Paulo.

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Painel 3 - Cenários para o mercado de commodities - André Pessoa

  1. 1. BRAZILIAN AGRICULTURAL SCENARIOS Perspectivas para o Agribusiness 2016 e 2017 June 2016 Andre Pessôa
  2. 2. 51,9 44,2 49,0 47,6 50,5 49,6 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 -2%6% Source: CONAB. Forecast: Agroconsult Yields (bags/ha) Soybeans/Brazil | 2015/16 Crop 75,3 66,4 81,5 86,1 97,2 98,4 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 1%13% Production (million tons)
  3. 3. 10,98 9,129,98 9,95 7,83 7,22 4,00 5,00 6,00 7,00 8,00 9,00 10,00 11,00 12,00 Argentina* IOWA MT - Sorriso Soybeans | FOB Cost (USD/bu) – FOB Costs • Land rent included** Source: USDA, AMS, Agroconsult. **Land Rent: MT 25% Area; IOWA 55% Area; Argentina 60% Area.. The information considers: Outlay Costs + Tranportation to Port + Operational Cost * Retenciones included (Export Tax)
  4. 4. 29,5 36,5 41,7 45,7 51,1 55,2 41,0 37,2 36,1 44,6 50,2 49,5 11,6 11,4 15,0 13,5 14,8 14,3 8,7 8,3 7,7 8,4 11,3 14,0 Brasil USA Others* Argentina *Paraguay, Canada, Uruguay and Ukraine are 92% of others countries. Soybeans/World | Exports (mmt) / October-September Source: USDA. Forecast: Agroconsult BRA Jan-Dez 2015 53,9 2016 54,2
  5. 5. 31,0 29,9 30,8 30,9 33,4 33,1 33,6 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 -0,9% 1,6% Source: Agroconsult and USDA (millions ha) Soybeans/USA | 2016/17 Crop 91 84 83 91 107 107 106 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 -0,8% -1,2% Harvested Area (million ha) Production (million tons) USDA (Wasde-Jun) 33,0 USDA (Wasde-Jun) 103,4
  6. 6. (mmt) 52 59 60 70 78 85 8966 72 76 81 87 95 101 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 Import Consumption Soybeans/China | Consumption and ImportsSoybeans/China | Consumption and Imports Source: USDA. Forecast: Agroconsult Imports 15/16: 83 mmt 16/17: 87 mmt Consumption 15/16: 95 mmt 16/17: 101 mmt USDA:
  7. 7. 4 4 7 10 9 5 4 5 4 3 5 9 3 18 18 4 4 37 31 29 32 38 37 32 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 Others CHI USA BRA ARG Others Soybeans/World | Ending Stocks (mmt) / crop market year is different for each player* Source: Agroconsult, USDA. *USA-September, BRA-December, CHI-October, ARG-March
  8. 8. 12 -20 5 5 18 -5 -5 264 240 268 282 320 314 326 253 260 263 277 302 319 330 GAP Produção Consumo (mmt) Soybeans/World | Supply and Demand Source: Agroconsult Production Consumption
  9. 9. Soybeans/World | Stock/Use Ratio vs. CME Price (USD/bu) Source: CME, Agroconsult 27% 19% 20% 21% 24% 21% 18% 12% 9% 8% 5% 9% 16% 6% 13.1 13.6 14.6 13.4 9.8 9.6 10.5 Stock/Use Ratio - World Stock/Use Ratio - USA CME Price
  10. 10. Source: Agroconsult *Cost of operations includes the costs of: machinery operations, labor, post-harvest, taxes and financial expenses. Soybeans/Brazil | Sorriso/MT Production Costs – Soybeans GMO (BRL/ha) • With Depreciation • No Rend land 1.299 1.424 1.634 1.811 1.955 2.172 2.288 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 Depreciação Operações* Sementes/ Mudas Defensivos Fertilizantes 11% 8% 15% 6% -2% 6% 6% 5%
  11. 11. 24,2 25,0 27,7 30,2 32,1 33,1 33,6 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 6% 3% 2% Source: CONAB. Forecast: Agroconsult Soybeans/Brazil | Planted Area (millions ha)
  12. 12. CORN
  13. 13. Corn/Brazil | Exports Source: Lineup Cargonave (mmt) / July - June 21,0 23,0 23,1 18,8 20,0 20,3 32,8 35,8 0,0 5,0 10,0 15,0 20,0 25,0 30,0 35,0 40,0 jul ago set out nov dez jan fev mar abr mai jun 13/14 14/15 15/16
  14. 14. 11,3 8,5 23,5 24,8 20,9 34,3 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Corn/Brazil | Exports (mmt) – February/January Source: Lineup Cargonave
  15. 15. 5,8 5,3 1,9 8,2 8,3 1,8 1,9 1,3 2,5 2,6 5,0 4,1 7,7 6,6 4,4 10,7 13,3 5,9 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 MT Outros Corn/Brazil | Ending Stocks Source: Agroconsult (mmt) – February/January
  16. 16. 60 84 84 85 94 79 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 Corn 2nd Crop/Brazil | Yields (bags/ha) Source: CONAB. Forecast: Agroconsult
  17. 17. 34,9 33,9 34,6 31,7 30,1 26,0 22,5 39,1 46,9 48,4 54,6 51,2 57,4 73,0 81,5 80,1 84,7 77,3 2nd Crop 1st Crop -9% (mmt) Corn/Brazil | Production Source: CONAB. Forecast: Agroconsult
  18. 18. Corn 2ª Crop/MT, MS, GO | Commercialization (mmt) 6.6 19.5 25.5 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 40.0 13/14 14/15 15/16 Source: IMEA and Agroconsult.
  19. 19. 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 ARG FOB BRA BM&F Corn | Import Parity – Paranaguá Port (BRL/sc) Source: Agroconsult.
  20. 20. 3 3 4 5 4 4 5 5 5 5 6 6 3 3 4 4 4 45 6 7 7 8 72 2 2 2 3 3 22 21 20 21 23 23 10 10 10 10 10 11 51 52 53 55 58 58 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 Swine Poultry Eggs Beef Milk Industrial Others Source: Agroconsult Corn/Brazil | Consumption (mmt) 3%
  21. 21. 33,0 33,9 35,4 35,4 33,6 32,7 34,8 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 -3% 6% Source: USDA, Agroconsult Corn/USA | 2016 Crop Harvested Area (million ha) Production (million ton) 316 313 273 351 361 345 357 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17
  22. 22. (mmt) Corn/World | Supply and Demand Source: USDA, Agroconsult -20 21 0 48 48 -15 5 836 890 870 991 1.013 965 1.012 855 869 869 943 965 980 1.007 GAP Production Consumption
  23. 23. Corn/World | Imports Source: USDA Prepared by: Agroconsult (mmt) 14,7 14,7 14,5 8,6 15,0 13,0 11,3 12,0 13,5 10,2 10,0 10,5 19,2 19,9 20,8 61,2 61,7 57,192,3 100,4 99,6 125,2 125,2 133,2 129,4 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 Others Africa South Korea Mexico EU-27 Japan
  24. 24. Corn/World | Exports (mmt) Source: USDA. Forecast: Agroconsult 47 50 47 39 19 49 47 47 52 9 11 14 26 21 25 36 21 5 5 5 13 20 20 16 179 17 15 17 13 19 19 22 USA (sep-aug) BRA (oct-sep) UKR (oct-sep) ARG (oct-sep)
  25. 25. 9% 8% 7% 9% 13% 12% 11% 6,49 6,56 6,73 4,41 3,77 3,75 4,00 Source: USDA, CME. Elaborado por: Agroconsult Corn/USA | Stocks to use ratio vs Prices (USD/bu)
  26. 26. 7,6 7,6 6,8 6,6 6,1 5,5 5,5 6,2 7,8 9,3 9,5 9,6 10,8 11,8 13,9 15,3 16,0 16,1 15,8 16,2 17,3 2ª Safra 1ª Safra 3% 1% 9% 7% (million ha) Corn/Brazil | Planted Area Source: CONAB. Forecast: Agroconsult 1st Crop 2nd Crop

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