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Capital Asset Pricing and
Arbitrage Pricing Theory


     Prof. Karim Mimouni
                            1
Capital Asset Pricing Model
          (CAPM)


                              2
Assumptions
โ€ข Individual investors are price takers

โ€ข Single-period investment horizon

โ€ข Investments are limited to traded financial
  assets

โ€ข No taxes, and transaction costs

                                                3
Assumptions (cont.)
โ€ข Information is costless and available to all
  investors

โ€ข Homogeneous expectations




                                                 4
Resulting Equilibrium
            Conditions
โ€ข All investors will hold the same portfolio
  for risky assets โ€“ market portfolio

โ€ข Market portfolio contains all securities
  and the proportion of each security is its
  market value as a percentage of total
  market value


                                               5
The Efficient Frontier and the
    Capital Market Line




                                 6
Slope and Market Risk Premium
         M     =   Market portfolio
          rf   =   Risk free rate
  E(rM) - rf   =   Market risk premium

  E(rM) - rf   =   Market price of risk
   ฯƒM
               =   Slope of the CML

                                          7
Expected Return and Risk
 on Individual Securities
 E (ri ) โˆ’ rf = ฮฒ i ( E (rM ) โˆ’ rf )

M =          Market portfolio
rf     =     Risk free rate
E(ri) - rf = Risk premium on security i
E(rM) - rf =    Market risk premium
                                          8
The Security Market Line and
    Positive Alpha Stock




                               9
โ€ข Determine the equation of the SML and plot it
  when:

             ( E (r
                  M    ) โˆ’ rf ) = 0.08

and

                      rf = 0.03



                                                  10
Application
โ€ข You are in an economy where Rf=9%,
  E(Rm)=20%.
โ€ข Determine the equation of the SML line in
  this economy.
โ€ข A stock has a beta=1.5. Determine the
  required rate of return. Give your
  recommendation when you think its
  expected return will be 22%.
โ€ข Do the same analysis when beta=-0.5 and
  investor expect the return to be 7%         11
Estimating the Index Model

โ€ข Using historical data on T-bills, S&P 500
  and individual securities
โ€ข Regress risk premiums for individual
  stocks against the risk premiums for the
  S&P 500
โ€ข Slope is the beta for the individual stock




                                               12
Characteristic Line for GM




                             13
Security Characteristic
Line for GM: Summary Output




                              14
Multifactor Models




                     15
โ€ข Limitations for CAPM

โ€ข Market Portfolio is not directly observable

โ€ข Research shows that other factors affect
  returns



                                                16
Fama French Research
   โ€ข Returns are related to factors other than market
     returns
   โ€ข Size
   โ€ข Book value relative to market value
   โ€ข Three factor model better describes returns

   โ€ข Example : GM

E (rGM ) โˆ’ r f = ฮฒ GM , M ( E (rM ) โˆ’ rf ) + ฮฒ GM ,SMB ( E (rSMB ) โˆ’ rf ) + ฮฒ GM , HML ( E (rHML ) โˆ’ rf )


                                                                                                            17
Regression Statistics for the Single-
 index and FF Three-factor Model




                                        18
Arbitrage Pricing Theory




                           19
โ€ข Arbitrage - arises if an investor can
  construct a zero beta investment portfolio
  with a return greater than the risk-free rate

โ€ข If two portfolios are mispriced, the investor
  could buy the low-priced portfolio and sell
  the high-priced portfolio

โ€ข In efficient markets, profitable arbitrage
  opportunities will quickly disappear

                                                  20
Security
  Line Characteristics
E (rP ) โˆ’ rf = ฮฒ P ( E (rM ) โˆ’ rf )




                                      21
APT and CAPM Compared
โ€ข APT applies to well diversified portfolios and not
  necessarily to individual stocks

โ€ข With APT it is possible for some individual stocks
  to be mispriced - not lie on the SML

โ€ข APT is more general in that it gets to an
  expected return and beta relationship without the
  assumption of the market portfolio

โ€ข APT can be extended to multifactor models
                                                       22

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Capm and apt

  • 1. Capital Asset Pricing and Arbitrage Pricing Theory Prof. Karim Mimouni 1
  • 2. Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) 2
  • 3. Assumptions โ€ข Individual investors are price takers โ€ข Single-period investment horizon โ€ข Investments are limited to traded financial assets โ€ข No taxes, and transaction costs 3
  • 4. Assumptions (cont.) โ€ข Information is costless and available to all investors โ€ข Homogeneous expectations 4
  • 5. Resulting Equilibrium Conditions โ€ข All investors will hold the same portfolio for risky assets โ€“ market portfolio โ€ข Market portfolio contains all securities and the proportion of each security is its market value as a percentage of total market value 5
  • 6. The Efficient Frontier and the Capital Market Line 6
  • 7. Slope and Market Risk Premium M = Market portfolio rf = Risk free rate E(rM) - rf = Market risk premium E(rM) - rf = Market price of risk ฯƒM = Slope of the CML 7
  • 8. Expected Return and Risk on Individual Securities E (ri ) โˆ’ rf = ฮฒ i ( E (rM ) โˆ’ rf ) M = Market portfolio rf = Risk free rate E(ri) - rf = Risk premium on security i E(rM) - rf = Market risk premium 8
  • 9. The Security Market Line and Positive Alpha Stock 9
  • 10. โ€ข Determine the equation of the SML and plot it when: ( E (r M ) โˆ’ rf ) = 0.08 and rf = 0.03 10
  • 11. Application โ€ข You are in an economy where Rf=9%, E(Rm)=20%. โ€ข Determine the equation of the SML line in this economy. โ€ข A stock has a beta=1.5. Determine the required rate of return. Give your recommendation when you think its expected return will be 22%. โ€ข Do the same analysis when beta=-0.5 and investor expect the return to be 7% 11
  • 12. Estimating the Index Model โ€ข Using historical data on T-bills, S&P 500 and individual securities โ€ข Regress risk premiums for individual stocks against the risk premiums for the S&P 500 โ€ข Slope is the beta for the individual stock 12
  • 14. Security Characteristic Line for GM: Summary Output 14
  • 16. โ€ข Limitations for CAPM โ€ข Market Portfolio is not directly observable โ€ข Research shows that other factors affect returns 16
  • 17. Fama French Research โ€ข Returns are related to factors other than market returns โ€ข Size โ€ข Book value relative to market value โ€ข Three factor model better describes returns โ€ข Example : GM E (rGM ) โˆ’ r f = ฮฒ GM , M ( E (rM ) โˆ’ rf ) + ฮฒ GM ,SMB ( E (rSMB ) โˆ’ rf ) + ฮฒ GM , HML ( E (rHML ) โˆ’ rf ) 17
  • 18. Regression Statistics for the Single- index and FF Three-factor Model 18
  • 20. โ€ข Arbitrage - arises if an investor can construct a zero beta investment portfolio with a return greater than the risk-free rate โ€ข If two portfolios are mispriced, the investor could buy the low-priced portfolio and sell the high-priced portfolio โ€ข In efficient markets, profitable arbitrage opportunities will quickly disappear 20
  • 21. Security Line Characteristics E (rP ) โˆ’ rf = ฮฒ P ( E (rM ) โˆ’ rf ) 21
  • 22. APT and CAPM Compared โ€ข APT applies to well diversified portfolios and not necessarily to individual stocks โ€ข With APT it is possible for some individual stocks to be mispriced - not lie on the SML โ€ข APT is more general in that it gets to an expected return and beta relationship without the assumption of the market portfolio โ€ข APT can be extended to multifactor models 22