Telecommunications Market In Central And Eastern Europe 2009

Telecommunications
market in Central and
Eastern Europe 2009
Development forecasts for 2010-2015
Publication date: December 2009
Language: English

www.ceeitandtelecom.com

Word from Author:

Telecommunications markets in Central and Eastern European countries matured and evolved in

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recent years. Key trends visible in Western Europe, e.g. fixed-to-mobile substitution, development of
mobile broadband or bundled services growing popularity, can also be observed in the CEE region. The
crucial problem is now infrastructure investments, which would allow for broadband internet capacity
comparable to that of Western European leaders (CEE countries lag behind the most here). Financial
crisis, though having relatively lighter impact on the telecoms branch, forced operators to significantly
reduce or freeze expenditures on network deployment and upgrade. Still, first signs of macroeconomic
recovery have already been visible and operators must decide now how their investment budgets
will look like, what direction the telecoms market will go to and what services would grant them the highest margins in the
coming years. In other words, a new post-crisis strategy must be ready as soon as possible.

Pawel Olszynka, Head of IT & Telecoms Analyst

See the table of contents See the list of graphs and tables

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Report Description:

Telecommunications market in Central and Eastern Europe 2009 provides a study analysis of the eight
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telecommunications markets in the Central and Eastern Europe region, including Bulgaria, Czech Republic,
Hungary, Poland, Romania, Russia, Slovakia and Ukraine. This 250-page report comprises eight country
chapters and concludes with an executive summary delivering a benchmark analysis of the telecommunications
sector in Central and Eastern Europe.

Each country is characterised by the value and market share of telecommunications services rendered from fixed-
line telephony, mobile telephony, data transmission and internet services. The report analyses key market
trends and events influencing recent changes in the market in each country, including mergers and acquisitions,
legal and regulatory amendments, new market entrants and forecast value for each of the telecommunications
segments.

The report concludes with an executive summary providing a comparative analysis and market data, with trends
and forecasts for the whole of the Central and Eastern Europe region, highlighting the eight countries within the
study.


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If you are looking for:

„ overview and analysis of the telecommunications sector in Central and Eastern Europe

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„ country analysis of the telecommunications market in Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania,
Russia, Slovakia and Ukraine
„ market share and value of telecommunication market in CEE countries and individual segments (fixed-line
telephony, mobile telephony, internet access and data transmission)
„ user penetration rates of individual telecommunications segments
„ market trends and forecasts for 2009-2013 as well as long term predictions for 2014-2015
„ telecommunications services sector specific analysis

…this is the report for you!




Who should read this report
The report is an indispensable source of market analysis and industry data for keeping up to date with the latest
market trends and developments. It is an essential read for:
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„ Operators and new market entrants interested in the telecommunications markets in Central and Eastern
Europe
„ Senior executives in consulting and research firms, trade and industry organisations, government institutions
and investment funds, monitoring the CEE telecommunications markets
„ Market analysts and industry consultants involved in the telecom sector in the CEE region




Excerpts from the report:

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Telecommunications market in Central and Eastern Europe 2009 – Development forecasts for 2010-2015 Telecommunications market in Central and Eastern Europe 2009 – Development forecasts for 2010-2015 Telecommunications market in Central and Eastern Europe 2009 – Development forecasts for 2010-2015

Number of lines (m) and fixed-line telephony penetration rate (%) Major players on the mobile market The actual number of internet users in Russia varies in the assessments of different
in the Czech Republic, 2002-2008 agencies due to different methodologies used. The biggest number is given by the Russian
CEE082
Ministry of Telecommunications which reported 47 million internet users in Russia at the end
of 2008. Other state agencies and research institutions give the much smaller figure of 35-
3.61 3.69 3.53 Share of mobile operators in the mobile telephony market
3.21
40m users for the end of 2008; however, all of them reported sharp market growth during
in Poland by number of SIM cards, 2008
2.80
2.41
2008 which was higher in comparison with previous years.
CEE180
2.14
P4 MVNOs
35.4% 36.2% 34.6% 31.3% 4.6% 0.7% Removing from the count occasional users which access the internet less often than
once per three months, a total realistic number of internet users in Russia at the end of 2008
27.3%
23.2% 20.5%
approached 37m and an increase of 20.4% in comparison with 2007. During the first three
PTK Centertel

months of 2009 the number of Internet users increased by 8.1% in comparison with the end of
32.3%
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 PTC

2008 and reached 39.8m, which is higher than expected considering the seasonable decline
29.5%
Number of lines Penetration rate
of the new connections at the beginning of the year.
Source: CSU, CTU, ITU, PMR Publications, 2009 www.pmrpublications.com We estimate that the total number of broadband internet subscribers in Russia, including
both corporate and individual segment, amounted to some 9.35 million in 2008, which was
Share of residential and business segment in the total number of 50.9% up year-on-year. Although the market dynamics declined it has remained at a very high
fixed-lines in the Czech Republic*, 2002-2008 Polkomtel level.
33.0%
CEE083

Source: PMR Publications, 2009 www.pmrpublications.com
Daily, weekly and monthly measurement of internet users
31% 34% 38% 34% 34% 32% 29% in Russia (m), 2002-2008
CEE297

37.4
34.8

31.9
29.7
69% 66% 62% 66% 66% 68% 71% Share of mobile operators in the mobile telephony market

27.5
in Poland by revenues, 2008

23.9

22.5

21.5
20.1

19.2
18.4
CEE181

15.1
14.2

13.1
P4 MVNOs

11.6
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

10.3

10.1
3.2% 0.12%

8.2

8.0
7.7
5.5

5.2
3.8
Residential Business

2.8
PTC
30.6%
Source: CSU, CTU, ITU, 2009 www.pmrpublications.com Polkomtel
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Q1 2009
32.7%
Daily Weekly Monthly
Fixed-line telephony penetration (%) in households
in the Czech Republic, 2002-2008 Source: FOM, 2009 www.pmrpublications.com

CEE084

64% 60%
59% 56%
48% PTK Centertel Number ('000) and growth rate (%) of broadband internet subscribers
39% 33.3% in Russia*, 2002-2008
30%
CEE298
362.1%
9,350

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 6,195
166.4%
125.5% 124.2% 3,770
Source: CTU, Eurostat, 2009 www.pmrpublications.com 64.3%
1,805 50.9%
357 805
134 108.9%

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Number of subscribers Growth rate

* Individual and corporate subscribers were included.

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137 www.pmrpublications.com
213




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Telecommunications market in Central and Eastern Europe 2009 – Development forecasts for 2010-2015

Number of lines (m) and fixed-line telephony penetration rate (%)
in the Czech Republic, 2002-2008
CEE082

3.61 3.69 3.53
3.21
2.80
2.41
2.14

35.4% 36.2% 34.6% 31.3%
27.3%
23.2% 20.5%

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Number of lines Penetration rate

Source: CSU, CTU, ITU, PMR Publications, 2009 www.pmrpublications.com

Share of residential and business segment in the total number of
fixed-lines in the Czech Republic*, 2002-2008
CEE083

31% 34% 38% 34% 34% 32% 29%

69% 66% 62% 66% 66% 68% 71%

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Residential Business

Source: CSU, CTU, ITU, 2009 www.pmrpublications.com

Fixed-line telephony penetration (%) in households
in the Czech Republic, 2002-2008
CEE084

64% 60%
59% 56%
48%
39%
30%

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Source: CTU, Eurostat, 2009 www.pmrpublications.com

85


Major players on the mobile market

Share of mobile operators in the mobile telephony market
in Poland by number of SIM cards, 2008
CEE180

P4 MVNOs
4.6% 0.7%

PTK Centertel
32.3%
PTC
29.5%

Polkomtel
33.0%


Share of mobile operators in the mobile telephony market
in Poland by revenues, 2008
CEE181

P4 MVNOs
3.2% 0.12%

PTC
30.6%
Polkomtel
32.7%

PTK Centertel
33.3%


137


The actual number of internet users in Russia varies in the assessments of different
agencies due to different methodologies used. The biggest number is given by the Russian
Ministry of Telecommunications which reported 47 million internet users in Russia at the end
of 2008. Other state agencies and research institutions give the much smaller figure of 35-
40m users for the end of 2008; however, all of them reported sharp market growth during
2008 which was higher in comparison with previous years.
Removing from the count occasional users which access the internet less often than
once per three months, a total realistic number of internet users in Russia at the end of 2008
approached 37m and an increase of 20.4% in comparison with 2007. During the first three
months of 2009 the number of Internet users increased by 8.1% in comparison with the end of
2008 and reached 39.8m, which is higher than expected considering the seasonable decline
of the new connections at the beginning of the year.
We estimate that the total number of broadband internet subscribers in Russia, including
both corporate and individual segment, amounted to some 9.35 million in 2008, which was
50.9% up year-on-year. Although the market dynamics declined it has remained at a very high
level.

Daily, weekly and monthly measurement of internet users
in Russia (m), 2002-2008
CEE297

37.4
34.8

31.9
29.7
27.5
23.9

22.5

21.5
20.1

19.2
18.4
15.1
14.2

13.1
11.6

10.3

10.1
8.2

8.0
7.7
5.5

5.2
3.8
2.8

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Q1 2009

Daily Weekly Monthly

Source: FOM, 2009 www.pmrpublications.com

Number ('000) and growth rate (%) of broadband internet subscribers
in Russia*, 2002-2008
CEE298

362.1%
9,350

6,195
166.4%
125.5% 124.2% 3,770
64.3% 50.9%
1,805
357 805
134 108.9%

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Number of subscribers Growth rate

* Individual and corporate subscribers were included.

213

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Development forecasts for 2010-2015
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