slides from keynote lecture at Eurobarometer Conference, Gothenburg, Sweden, 28.9.2009

1. Future of Europe:The next big challenge? dr. Žiga Turk Eurobarometer Conference, Gothenburg, Sweden, 28.9.2009

2. Disclaimer Views expressed are those of the author and not necessarily of the organizations he is affiliated with.

3. Europeans hope:2/3 are optimistic about the future! Would you say that you are very optimistic, fairly optimistic, fairly pessimistic or very pessimistic about the future of the European Union?

4. The young are more optimistic than the old

5. And life may not even be easier …

6. What if we ask Google?

7. We have to do something about it! Let's reinvent the continent!

8. On this continent we set up a committee: to identify the key issues and developments which the Union was likely to face and to analyze how these might be addressed. strengthening and modernizing the European model of economic success and social responsibility, enhancing the competitiveness of the EU, the rule of law, sustainable development as a fundamental objective of the European Union, global stability, migration, energy and climate protection, and the fight against global insecurity, international crime and terrorism. particular attention should be given to ways of better reaching out to citizens and addressing their expectations and needs. Left to right: Monti, Notsat, Munz, Koolhas, Freiberga, Gonzales, Nicolaidis, (Turk), Ollila, Friie, Schuster, Walesa (Lambert missing)

9. First idea fn the group in 2007,in the good old times … Schengen, EU expansion, Euro, both a success Lisbon Treaty on track/signed, institutional matters settled economic upswing, in part attributed to the Lisbon Strategy soft power Europe - leading global climate change agenda

10. … the sky was the limit Mark Leonhard: "we will see the emergence of a New European Century. Not because Europe will run the world as an empire, but because the European way of doing things will have become the worlds". Jeremy Rifkin: "Much of the world is going dark, leaving many human beings without clear direction. The European Dream is a beacon of light in the troubled world." long term visions: a proposal for a group of wise men to think about the future of Europe (2020-2030) economic, social and environmental strategy: Lisbon strategy 3.0 (2010-2020)

11. In the past: remarkable achievements of the European idea Peace in the West Democracy and human right in the East Reunification of East and West What is next? 11

12. Then the Crises Hit institutional crisis treaty stuck in Ireland climate crisis somehow forgotten, "temperatures flat since 2001, but warming will return" financial, then economic crisis, possible spillover to political crisis The end of dream and the return of reality

13. The key reasons for the crisis and the “key issues and developments” are the same Abundance, conceptual economy Greenspan: "almost all of the real-value-added increases in our output reflect the embodiment of ideas" BRICS, shifting of center of gravity of global economy after 300 years, re-emergence of China as #1 economy Climate change. peak oil and possible 3rd industrial revolution 100 years since the 2nd (oil) price of oil up consumer inflation tightening of monetary plicy boom! Demography, ageing in the West, Japan, also China investing money to pay for old age pensions in the epicenter of crisis

14. Abundance, conceptual economy:Where is the demand to drive recovery?

15. BRICs: Share of EU in global population and GDP 15

16. Climate change IPCC prediction

17. Demography 17

18. How these might be addressed?With policies across sectors: 18

19. Resources to address the ABCD challenges The Sun For sustainable future The People Quality – education, care for talent, technological development and creativity Quantity – meeting the demographic challenge Impact – empowering and giving opportunities The Union “Global problems require global solutions” Europe as a tool Member states, the Union, the World

20. So what is the next big story? Peace, democracy, unification were big … but internal, European stories ABCD ... Abundance causing conceptual economy, not industrial BRICs and globalization, rise of Asia Climate change asking for an energy revolution Demographic change … are big global stories. Global! The West is smaller Internal Western stories are small stories The big issues, the ABCD, are global issues … 20

21. The only big European story is our role in the world Will the Union be a player … to promote its values, principles, interests … set the rules of the game Or will the EU continue to be less than the sum of its parts 21

22. Ali Evropa potrebuje velike zgodbe? Stabilnost v gibanju? 22

23. To conclude … Oscar Wilde: “Public Opinion ... is an attempt to organize the ignorance of the community and to elevate it to the dignity of physical force.” Europeans are certainly not ignorant about their hope for a good future Political leadership must deliver on that hope. Tom Landry: “Leadership is getting someone to do what they don't want to do, to achieve what they do want to achieve.” The Union, as it is, is one of the few tools we have to deliver on the hope But a tool is just a tool, and tools depend on the user.

24. Ziga.turk@gmail.comwww.zturk.com Thank you!