Water Scenario in Pakistan

1. Water Scenario: Past, Present and Future of Pakistan
By: Muhammed Zafir Zia
Per capita availability of surface water in Pakistan is gradually dwindling from
5300 cubic meter in 1951 to 1000 cubic meters in 2005 and is projected to hit less
than 1000 cubic meters making Pakistan a water short country
Of all the major problems, water crisis is the one that lies at the heart of our survival and
that of our planet. Experts project that the global water crisis will reach unprecedented
levels in the years ahead in many parts of the developing world. The years ahead predict
the threat of looming water wars between countries. According to figures published by
the United Nations & other international organizations, 1.1bn people are without a
sufficient access to water, and 2.4bn people have to live without adequate sanitation.
Under current trends, the prognosis is that about 3bn people of a population of 8.5bn will
suffer from water shortage by 2025. 83% of them will live in developing countries,
mostly in rural areas where even today sometimes only 20% of the populations have
access to a sufficient water supply. Fresh drinking water is not only a need of human
beings, but equally important for the animals and agriculture throughout the world. This
acute water shortage will be responsible in spreading diseases as contaminated water is
the sole cause of nearly 80% infectious diseases. Hence the world has to take serious and
concrete measures in order to avoid the water crisis in the years to come.
Situation of Water in Pakistan:
Water plays an immensely important role in the economy of Pakistan which primarily
depends on Agriculture accounting for 24 per cent of the national GDP, 48 per cent
employment and 70 per cent of country's exports. Per capita availability of surface water
in Pakistan is gradually dwindling from 5300 cubic meter in 1951 to 1000 cubic meters in
2005 and is projected to hit less than 1000 cubic meters making Pakistan a water short
country as per the world standards. Pakistan has a total of 77 million acres of land
suitable for agriculture out of which 54 million acres (71per cent) is already cultivated.
The remaining 23 million acres (29 per cent) can become productive if water is made
available for irrigation. Irrigation in Pakistan mainly depends upon Indus river which has
an average annual flow of 138 to 145 MAF (Million Acre Feet). Some experts calculate
this quantity as low as 123.5 MAF. Average water flow downstream Kotri since 1977 has
been 35 MAF while Sindh's estimates indicate that roughly 10 MAF is required to flow to
the sea. The Indus water quantity, after deducting 10 MAF required to flow downstream
Kotri and 5 MAF for headwater uses comes to about 20 MAF which the Federal
Government and some experts feel can be stored during floods and used during the lean
period. The construction of reservoirs, is thus a badly needed and viable proposition

2. especially in view of the fact that the existing major reservoirs (Chashma, Mangla and
Tarbela) are silting up and have already lost 25 per cent of their total capacity.
Indus Water Treaty 1960:
After Independence, problems between the two countries arose over the distribution of
water. Rivers flow into Pakistan territory from India. On April 1, 1948, India stopped the
supply of water to Pakistan from every canal flowing from India to Pakistan. Pakistan
protested and India finally agreed on an interim agreement on May 4, 1948. This
agreement was not a permanent solution; therefore, Pakistan approached the World Bank
in 1952 to help settle the problem permanently. It was finally in Ayub Khan's regime that
an agreement was signed between India and Pakistan in September 1960. This agreement
is known as the “Indus Water Treaty”. This treaty divided the use of rivers and canals
between the two countries. Pakistan obtained exclusive rights for the three western rivers,
namely Indus, Jehlum and Chenab. And India retained rights to the three eastern rivers,
namely Ravi, Beas and Sutluj. The treaty also guaranteed ten years of uninterrupted water
supply. During this period Pakistan was to build huge dams, financed partly by long-term
World Bank loans and compensation money from India. Three multipurpose dams,
Warsak, Mangla and Tarbela were built. A system of eight link canals was also built, and
the remodeling of existing canals was carried out. Five barrages and a gated siphon were
also constructed under this treaty. This treaty of 1960 was never beneficial to Pakistan as
it clearly showed the Indian ascendancy. Even after this agreement, many water-related
issues between the two countries have come to fore from time to time, especially with
regard to the construction of some controversial dams by India such as Sallal Dam,
Wullar Barrage, Baglihar Dam and now Kishanganga dam.
Indian Violations: Baglihar Hydroelectric Power Project and Kishanganga Dam
The Baglihar Hydroelectric Power Project on the Chenab River (Chenab was allocated to
Pakistan according to the 1960 Treaty) in the southern Doda district of the Indian
administered state of Jammu and Kashmir was conceived in 1992, approved in 1996 and
its construction began in 1999 with an estimated cost of USD $1 billion. Instead of
immediate questioning and pressurizing India to stop the construction of the controversial
Baglihar dam Pakistani government reacted very late and clumsily. Pakistan started talks
with India in 2002, in order to convince India to change the design of the dam but to no
avail. The talks failed and Pakistan raised the issue of the illegal construction of baglihar
with the World Bank in 2005. Pakistan raised 4 major concerns and reservations related
to the construction of Baglihar dam, firstly its height, secondly its capacity of storing
water, thirdly installing the gated control of spillway and fourthly that this project is in
violation to the Indus Water Treaty of 1960. The World Bank nominated Professor
Raymond Lafitte, a Swiss national, civil engineer and professor at the Swiss Federal
Institute of Technology in Lausanne, as a neutral expert to make a finding on a difference
between the two governments concerning the construction of the Baglihar project. Mr.
Lafitte declared his final verdict on February 12, 2007 in which he upheld some minor
objections of Pakistan. The report acknowledged India's right to construct 'gated
spillways' under Indus water treaty 1960.The report allowed pondage of 32.58 MCM as

3. against India's demand for 38 MCM. The report also recommended to reduce the height
of freeboard from 4.5 m to 3.0 m. However he rejected Pakistani objections on height and
gated control of spillway declaring these were conforming to engineering norms of the
day. Experts projected that this Baglihar Dam would decrease 8000 cusecs of water daily
to Pakistan which in totality is about 29 lakh 20 thousands cusecs an year and will badly
hit the agriculture sector of Punjab in particular.
The Kishanganga dam is located 160 km upstream from Muzaffarabad and involves the
diversion of Kishanganga River (called the Neelum River in Pakistan) to a tributary
named Bunar Madumati Nullah of Jhelum near Bunkot. Experts say that the Kishanganga
project (to be build across the Jehlum river) could reduce Pakistan’s total water
availability from an estimated 154 MAF to about 140 MAF per year. It would also leave
significant portion of the Mangla Dam’s storage capacity unutilised. It is also feared that
the diversion would result in an ecological disaster for the area. In water-related issues,
Pakistan has always been on the losing end. By being engaged in negotiations with
Pakistan, India secures sufficient time to continue the unnoticed construction of its
controversial dams. For that reason India balks at the indulgence of third party in all
water-related issues between both the countries and instead it insists on bilateral talks.
India is constructing more than 50 dams on the Indus and Jehlum and 7 other dams other
than Baglihar on the Chenab river. By constructing one after another controversial dams,
India is causing trouble for Pakistan which is already confronting a severe water crisis.
Diamer-Bhasha dam: A step forward
The President of Pakistan during his national address on 17 January 2006 announced the
decision of Government to construct 5 multi-purpose storages in the country during next
10 -12 years. Diamer Basha Dam Project will be undertaken in the first phase. Work on
the project started after the ground-breaking ceremony by the President of Pakistan. The
Executive Committee of the National Economic Council has approved the construction of
Diamer-Bhasha dam. It is revealed that 4500 MW of electricity would be generated
through the dam. The construction work will be completed in seven years with the cost of
$12.6 billions, & will have the capacity to store 8.1 million acre feet water. The project is
scheduled to be completed within the prescribed time frame in 2016.
Disharmony and reservations:
It is lamentable that once Pakistan was among the top wheat producing countries of the
world but today it has to import wheat to cater the needs of its people. Wheat crop needs
plenty of water while in winter wheat crop is supplied water from dams. It is unfortunate,
rather criminal negligence, that our successive governments have not been able to build
any major dam after Mangla and Tarbela whose storage capacity is shrinking due to silt
by each passing day. How ironic it is that our politicians are quick to solve the Kalabagh
dam by putting off this project for indefinite period which is equivalent to abandoning the
project. Our politicians are of the view that Kalabagh dam is detrimental to our
federation. It is a bitter reality that by being lazy to find out a suitable substitute to
Kalabagh Dam for many decades, we have reached a situation where not one or two but a

4. series of dams can save our lands from turning into deserts. It is true that India is going
ahead with controversial dams and is interfering with our waters, showing utter disregard
to the provisions of the Indus Water Treaty. However, raising a great hue and cry over
India’s unjust construction of dams can hardly persuade New Delhi to change its mind.
Therefore, the need of the hour is to make the optimal use of our waters by making a
number of dams on emergency basis. Dr. Abdul Qadeer Khan once said that the scarcity
of water will pose a greater threat than the nuclear capability of the enemy . Therefore
drastic measures should be taken to conserve each and every drop of water available not
only think of ourselves but also for our generations to come.
How to improve the situation?
Population of Pakistan today is around more than 160 million and it is expected to rise to
208 million by 2025. This growth in population will significantly increase the demand for
food and fibre, with both land and water resources are declining day by day. Pakistan’s
food import bill is rising on account of population and output is declining as a result of
reduced water availability. However it is appreciable that the water sector had been given
the highest priority in the budget allocation of 2007-08 with an allocation of Rs 70.91
billion, which was 24 percent higher than the preceding year budget allocation. Elected
political leadership in Pakistan has been able to develop consensus on a number of
extremely complex and altercated issues such as the 1973 Constitution and 1991 Water
Accord. Therefore a serious and sincere effort by politicians can help resolving all water
related disputes and remove the doubts & reservations put forward by provinces.
Pakistan's political leadership needs to activate constitutional conflicts resolution
mechanisms such as the Council of Common Interests (CCI). To overcome water
shortage crisis, the solution lies in the proper water management at watershed, reservoirs,
conveyance system i. e, at canals and distributaries level as well as watercourses and farm
application levelling of open channels and use of pipes to transport water for reducing
seepage losses. To prepare cemented water beds at the bottom of the base. Building of
more dams in the country is also good solution to solve the problem of water shortage.
Pakistanis need the will, dedication, strength and the unity in order to resolve the water
crisis in Pakistan.
The writer is an engineer & can be contacted at zafir_zia@yahoo.com