Preliminary results from IPTS foresight on Imagining Open Education 20130

1. Imagining Open Education
2030:
Towards a new ecosystem for
Higher Education?
EADTU Keynote, "The Open and Flexible Higher Education Conference
2013", Paris, 23-24 October 2013
Yves Punie
Christine Redecker
Riina Vuorikari
Jonatan Castaño Muñoz

2. European Commission,
Joint Research Centre
Institute for Prospective
Technological Studies (IPTS):
Research institute supporting EU
policy-making on
socio-economic, scientific and/or
technological issues

3. ICT for Learning and Skills
– Research on "educational transformation in a digital world", in support of
(mainly) DG Education and Culture
– Themes:
– Mainstreaming and scaling-up ICT-enabled innovation for learning
– Digital Competence for Education and Employability
– Opening up Education, support and follow-up COM 2013 (654 final), 25
Sept 2013

4. Structure
I. Introduction and context on "past and future" of HE and
Opening Up Education
II. A short review of existing scenarios on the future of HE
III. Results from IPTS foresight on Open Education 2030
IV. Final remarks

5. Thinking about the future…
• Newborns of today will be 17 years old in 2030
• but will they "graduate" in 2035?
• We expect the world to be somehow different by then…

6. Future of Learning (IPTS, 2011)
Demography
Immigration
Globalisation
Technology
Labour Market
Drivers
Labour market trends & demands
New skills
New ways of learning
Education & Training
Initiative, resilience
Responsibility
Risk-taking, creativity
Personal
skills
Team-, networking
Empathy, compassion
Co-constructing
Social
skills
Managing, organising
Meta-cognitive skills
Failing forward
Learning
skills
Personalisation
Learnercentred
Tailormade & targeted
Active & constructive
Motivating & engaging
Collaboration
Social
learning
Peer-learning
Sharing & collaborating
In communities
Lifewide
learning
Anywhere, anytime
Blending virtual & real
Combining
sources/providers
Informalisation
ICT Trends
?
Augmented Reality Data mining
3D virtual worlds Social networks
?
Learning analytics
Games
Mobiles
?
?
e-books
OER
Electronic tutors
ePortfolios LMS

7. « Educational change… now more than
ever…? »
2012 Year of the MOOC
•
2013 Year of the anti-MOOC…

9. Disruptive….
or sustaining innovation…?
Bower & Christensen, 1995

10. MOOC hype cycle
A very slow tsunami: projection of the Hype Cycle for MOOCs
by Jonathan Tapson, University of Western Sydney http://pandodaily.com/2013/09/13/moocsand-the-gartner-hype-cycle-a-very-slow-tsunami/

11. History of Open Education
Alternative &
Progressive
education
Open
Education/
classrooms
Distance
Universities
Open
Schools
1st EU MOOC
platform
Open Universities (OUUK, OUNL, UOC…
OU
1st cMOOC
(2008)
Computer
Assisted
Instruction
(1970)
Digital
learning
resources
Free
Software
/GNU
19th
century
1960's–1970's
open
content
(1998)
MIT OCW
(2001)
1st Stanford
xMOOC
(2011)
Certification
OERu
MOOCs
OER Def.
(UNESCO
2002)
Open
OpenLearn
badges
(OUUK)
Creative
Commons
Increasing number of Open
(2002)
Access papers & journals
Budapest Open
UK Finch report
Access Initiative
1985 1990-2000
2001-2002
2006-2011
2012
2013
OER
OA

12. A global shift
towards "openness"

13. The range of "Opens"

14. Carlota Perez, Tomorrow's Capitalism: GROWTH AFTER THE FINANCIAL CRISIS,
Presentation at the Institute for Public Policy Research, June 2009

15. The forces of disruption vs. sustaining
are at play;
High "potential" for disrupting HE…
Change "will" occur…
See also: Yuan & Powell, eLearning Papers, 33, May 2013

16. II. A short review of existing
scenarios on the future of HE

17. OECD CERI (2006): 4 scenarios for HE to 2030
Open Networking…
Among institutions, scholars, students, industry; internationally - Voluntary cooperation but
with hierarchy and prestige
Student autonomy – modular choices within the network (curricula and degree)
Serving Local Communities…
High # of local institutes vs. small # of elite HE institutions that are globally linked
Public funding, local funding; Focus on teaching and research serving local needs
New Public Responsibility…
Publicly funded, autonomous system with high accountability
Tuition fees; High competition for public research funds & specialisation in teaching and
research
Higher Education Inc…
Global competition, focus on core business (teaching vs research) and fierce competition
for best students and top academics

18. The future of English Higher Education: Two scenarios on the changing
landscape, Leadership Foundation for Higher Education, May 2012
The return of the binary divide in 2025…
A few top league research (25) globally networked vs a higher number (70) and
more diverse group of teaching/research universities; High access fees
The grand design of the visible hand…
Public sector takes over control with a three tier system:
- super-six research incentive universities
- a larger # of full and comprehensive Grand Universities
- a significant # of private for profit institutes.

19. Imagining the future of HE in 2022, B. Alexander, Educause Review, Dec
2011
Learning at a distance…
Online learning at scale and sporadic local f2f contacts
The serpent digest a large mammal…
Little change, but fully encompassing the digital world
Campus Weirding…
Fully open, distributed and decentralised model with high # of MOOCs
2016 Scenario guide to effective tertiary education in New Zealand, Sept
2012, Ako Aotearoa, National Centre for Tertiary Teaching Excellence

21. IPTS foresight
"Imagining Open Education 2030 and the potential of
OER"
• A series of 3 sector workshops: Lifelong Learning (29-30/04), School
Education (28-29/05) and Higher Education (6-7/06) involving circa 50 experts
• Call for vision papers: 97 submissions! (49 HE, 31 SE & 17 LLL)
• Aim was NOT to predict but to develop shared visions and imagine different
possible futures as a tool for strategic decision making, based on identifying,
understanding and awareness raising around on key challenges, opportunities
and possible threats.
• 2030 is set to force us to think out of the box and go beyond 2020…

22. Workshop Methodology
Open Education 2030
Step 1: Identifying the critical issues
Scenario A
High Y
Scenario B
+/+
-/+
Low X
High X
-/-
+/-
Scenario D
Scenario C
Step 2: Identifying the (two) key tensions
Step 3: Describing the emerging scenarios
Low Y
Step 4: Milestones & Roadmap

23. Key tensions
Open Education 2030
Guided
discovery
Self-guided
discovery
Learning context
Guided
journey
Learning
Guided
goals
Learner initiated
Self-guided
journey
Externally set
Self-guided

24. Learning conditions
Open Education 2030
More open, flexible, fluid but all
at the same time…?

25. Scenario differences
Closed
Open Education 2030
Learner initiated
Where When
How
How
What
Learning context
Where When
How
What
Learning
Guided
What
goals
Where When
Self-guided
Where When
How
Externally set
What

26. Consequences for HE
institutions
Unbundling
E.g R. McGreal, Shirkey.com; Barber et all 2013
Research
Certification
Assessment
Certification
Assessment
2030
Guidance
Guidance
2013
Selection
Content
Selection
Research
Content

27. Scenario differences
Open Education 2030
goals
Learner
initiated
Learning context
Learning
Guided
Externally
set
Self-guided

28. Guided journey
Key role for institutions:
• Guidance
• Selection
• Quality assurance
When
Learning context
Learning goals
Guided
Provide Learning Spaces
Where
(physical, online, local, global)
(closed)
and a strong sense of community
Externally
set
Anytime but scheduled
(= guidance)
- Meet externally set learning
What
goals / curricula
(closed)
- Content quality assurance
How
Focus on teaching (e.g. MOOCs)
and/or assessment and/or
certification

29. Guided discovery
Learning goals
Learner
initiated
Guided
- Provide Learning Spaces
(physical, online, local, global)
Where
and a loose sense of community
(closed)
- Networks for research and
innovation
When Anytime
Learning context
Key role for institutions:
• Lifelong Learning guidance
• Meet diverse learner needs
• Foster excellence
• Knowledge and research
What
- Inquiry-based subjects
- Post-graduate level subjects
- Research and Innovation skills
How
- Inquiry-based, exploratory
- citizen science
- E.g SPOCS & TORQUE

30. Self-guided journey
Where
Anywhere
When
Anytime
Key role for institutions:
• Quality content creation and
verification
• Credit transfer
• External assessment
- Meet externally set learning
What goals / curricula
(closed) - Content quality assurance
Learning goals
How
Pick & Choose:
- High-quality, instructionally
designed learning materials from
anywhere
- Certification of prior learning
- "Skills Portfolio"
Learning context
Externally
set
Selfguided

31. Self-guided discovery
- Anywhere
Where - Pre-requisite: Abundance!
- Informal learning networks
When Anytime
What
- Personal goals
- Creation of new knowledge
- OER; open data, MOOCs,
SPOCS, TORQUE, any type of
How learning
- Citizen science
- hyper-connected
Learning goals
Learner
initiated
Learning context
Selfguided
Key role for institutions:
• Content production (diversity)
• Learning platforms
• Research & Innovation

32. IV. Final remarks (1/2)
Open Education 2030
OE 2030 scenarios are not mutually exclusive!
• Preference for a scenario depends on ability, competences, needs and
interest of both individuals and society
• "Self-guided discovery" scenario (most open) is NOT always the ideal
• Fluidity allows for moving between the learning scenarios
• OE 2030 still requires guidance and certain restrictions
[Draft – Work in progress – more final version end 2013]
[Paper: "OE 20130: Planning the future of Adult Learning in Europe",
Open Learning: The Journal of Open, Distance and e-Learning]

33. Adult Learning scenarios
Open Education 2030
Guided
discovery
Learning
café
Open
discovery
Learning
for Life
Learning setting
Protected
journey
Open
training
Content
Guided
& Curricula
Learner initiated
Self-directed
journey
My
learning
certified
Externally set
Self-guided

34. Final remarks (2/2)
Open Education 2030
For educational institutions:
 At the core of OE 2030 are unbundling, abundance, networking,
flexibility and personalised learning
 Learning services will not necessary be for free, under an open license
and accessible to all
 HE institutions will not disappear but need to "redefine" their role in OE
landscape – existing funding and quality mechanisms not sustainable
Policies:
• need to cater for # more versions of opening and closing
• Knowledge and education as a "public good"
• EC policy response: "Opening up Education" COM 2013 (654 final),
25 Sept 2013 featuring 23 Actions

35. Thank you for your attention!
yves.punie@ec.europe.eu