1. f
50%
(3474.TW/3474 TT)
48.5%
1.45
1.14
(1-1.5%)2013-14
2014
NT$18.70
2013-14
2013F
1
2
3
1
2
3
, CFA
886.2.2181.8709
Michael.liu@kgi.com
3Q13
william.kuo@kgi.com
72.9
33%
95%
( )
(%)
(%)
(%)
1.21
1.04
56,335
19,629
18,964
18,092
3.08
34.8
33.7
32.1
886.2.2181.8741
1.18
2014F
(%)
1.0
3.1
3.6
4.4
1.6
0.8 ppts
56,874
20,244
19,647
18,886
3.13
35.6
34.5
33.2
0.9 ppts
1.1 ppts
71,003
33,648
32,835
31,645
5.24
47.4
46.2
44.6
(%)
0.8
1.2
1.2
1.3
1.2
0.2 ppts
71,595
34,040
33,227
32,052
5.30
47.5
46.4
44.8
0.2 ppts
0.2 ppts
169
0.81
2013-14
2013F
4Q13
56,874
20,244
19,647
18,886
3.13
35.6
34.5
33.2
( )
(%)
(%)
(%)
DRAM
2014F
(%)
7.4
9.5
23.0
15.5
25.6
0.7 ppts
4.4 ppts
2.3 ppts
52,979
18,481
15,967
16,351
2.49
34.9
30.1
30.9
71,595
34,040
33,227
32,052
5.30
47.5
46.4
44.8
(%)
12.7
15.0
N.A.
17.1
35.1
0.9 ppts
N.A.
1.7 ppts
63,545
29,612
N.A.
27,373
3.93
46.6
N.A.
43.1
PC DRAM
12
2014
2
33%
110%
4Q13
20
2014
2014
0.81
63
1.18
2014
95%
1.21
44
(
80
優於市場預估
169
73
2013
20
三
3Q13
26
3x
71
)
1)DRAM
2)4x
3x
3)
PC DRAM
4)
3-6
7%
33.9
DRAM
4x
3x
DRAM
15-20%
DRAM
DRAM
PC
2Q13
DRAM
OEM
50%
6-7
55%
DRAM
15-20%
DRAM
5-6%
50%
1Q14
10-15%
4Q13
DRAM
4Q13
PC DRAM
45%
4Q13
Nand Flash
40%
DRAM
DRAM
(
)
DRAM
http://research.kgi.com
2013
10
23
1

2. f
12
31
(
2011A
2012A
2013F
2014F
12 31
DRAM
性 DRAM
藉此將
3Q13
2014
2013-14
181
316
321
5.3
2.36
2011A
2012A
2013F
2014F
12
189
2013-14
3.93
26%
12
2014
(
/
3.13
49%
26
)
37,385
35,296
56,874
71,595
EV/sales
(x)
4.4
4.5
2.7
1.6
(
) (
)
(18,163)
(19,870)
(13,550)
(14,339)
20,244
19,647
34,040
33,227
EV/EBIT EV/EBITDA
(x)
(x)
(8.1)
12.9
(11.7)
10.3
7.8
4.4
3.4
2.3
52
26.0
39.0
93
N.A.
7.7 3
2.4
85.4
)
(%)
(percentile, %)
-12/13 (%)
-12/13 (NT$)
-12/13 (x)
-12/13 (%)
(
EBITDA
)
12,809
15,362
34,888
48,455
(
(x)
N.M.
N.M.
(
6.0
3.5
( / ):
/
(
)
(21,003)
(15,539)
18,886
32,052
EV/Inv. C
(x)
1.4
1.9
1.5
0.8
):
):
(
(
):
):
(
% (3,6,12
% (3,6,12
):
)
)
( )
(4.53)
(2.95)
3.13
5.30
(%)
N.A.
N.A.
55.1
51.2
2.1 - 19.6
113.1/3,843
6,046
4,662
2,623
11.2
39.6; 70.8; 341
35.8; 63.3; 285.5
2
2-2.5
1Q13A
(NT$
2Q13A
3Q13F
4Q13F
1Q14F
2Q14F
3Q14F
4Q14F
2013F
2014F
)
)
EPS
EPS
(%)
EBITDA Margin
16,944
9,285
7,659
148
7,511
3,801
0
11,312
5
0
106
111
332
332
7,290
0
7,290
0
7,290
1.21
1.21
18,551
9,312
9,239
180
9,059
3,730
0
12,789
10
0
0
10
332
332
8,737
0
8,737
0
8,737
1.45
1.45
19,657
9,464
10,193
276
9,917
3,831
0
13,749
20
0
0
20
332
332
9,606
0
9,606
0
9,606
1.59
1.59
18,183
9,421
8,762
193
8,569
3,788
0
12,357
32
0
0
32
332
332
8,269
0
8,269
0
8,269
1.37
1.37
17,286
9,367
7,918
193
7,725
3,811
0
11,537
45
0
0
45
332
332
7,438
0
7,438
0
7,438
1.23
1.23
16,469
9,302
7,166
151
7,015
3,797
0
10,812
56
0
0
56
332
332
6,739
0
6,739
0
6,739
1.12
1.12
56,874
36,630
20,244
639
19,647
15,239
2
34,888
30
0
529
559
1,319
1,319
18,886
0
18,886
0
18,886
3.13
3.13
71,595
37,555
34,040
813
33,227
15,228
0
48,455
153
0
0
153
1,328
1,328
32,052
0
32,052
0
32,052
5.30
5.30
(3.1)
(4.6)
40.7
(7.1)
(7.1)
28.4
27.3
57.1
27.2
27.2
45.2
44.3
66.8
43.0
43.0
49.8
48.8
68.9
47.1
47.1
51.9
50.5
69.9
48.9
48.9
48.2
47.1
68.0
45.5
45.5
45.8
44.7
66.7
43.0
43.0
43.5
42.6
65.7
40.9
40.9
35.6
34.5
61.3
33.2
33.2
47.5
46.4
67.7
44.8
44.8
47.7
N.A.
N.A.
107.3
N.A.
N.A.
32.9
111.8
116.1
55.5
109.9
109.9
9.5
20.6
20.6
13.1
19.8
19.8
6.0
10.3
9.5
7.5
9.9
9.9
(7.5)
(14.0)
(13.6)
(10.1)
(13.9)
(13.9)
(4.9)
(9.6)
(9.8)
(6.6)
(10.0)
(10.0)
(4.7)
(9.5)
(9.2)
(6.3)
(9.4)
(9.4)
8.9
(92.7)
(90.0)
(0.0)
(86.2)
(86.2)
(
12,747
9,131
3,615
139
3,476
3,799
1
7,277
5
0
326
331
335
335
3,472
0
3,472
0
3,472
0.63
0.63
(5.3)
N.A.
N.A.
(9.3)
N.A.
N.A.
EBITDA
8,632
8,902
(269)
130
(399)
3,908
1
3,510
9
0
98
106
321
321
(613)
0
(613)
0
(613)
(0.11)
(0.11)
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
42.6
142.4
146.5
69.8
138.1
138.1
2.0
3.4
2.9
2.0
2.0
2.0
(11.2)
(22.4)
(22.6)
(15.5)
(22.9)
(22.9)
61.1
N.A.
N.A.
127.1
N.A.
N.A.
25.9
68.1
69.1
38.9
69.7
69.7
(%)
EBITDA
(%)
EBITDA
http://research.kgi.com
2013
10
23
2

3. f
(2408 TT, NT$4.07,
2008
)
11
(
)2003
2013
300mm
WPM
42
30
2Q13
12-13
30
(
)
DRAM
60
40
90
20
80
0
70
3.92
DRAM
)
100
35.5%
50%
(
110
(20)
60
(40)
50
(60)
40
1Q08
90-95%
4Q08
3Q09
2Q10
1Q11
4Q11
3Q12
2Q13
1Q14F
(80)
4Q14F
20
2013-14
PC DRAM
45%
2012
15%
(
DRAM
)
(
)
6.0
15
60
40
1.0
20
(1.5)
0
(4.0)
80
3.5
20
1 2
12
60
15
100
(20)
(6.5)
(40)
85
40
50
20
(9.0)
0
(60)
2007
2012
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013F
2014F
2H13F
DRAM
2Gb DDR3 DRAM
25
1.5
200
10
1.8
300
15
2.1
400
20
2.4
100
1.2
5
0.9
0
Oct-12
0.6
Mar-11
Jul-11
Nov-11
Mar-12
Jun-12
Oct-12
Feb-13
Jun-13
0
(100)
Dec-12
Jan-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Oct-13
DRAMeXchange;
(
)
GB (
)
35
80
600
70
500
25
400
20
300
15
200
10
2.0x
1.7x
1.4x
1.1x
0.8x
20
100
5
0.5x
10
0
0
60
50
40
30
2007
2008
2009
2010
http://research.kgi.com
2011
2012
2013F
2014F
30
2.3x
2008
2013
2009
10
23
2010
2011
2012
2013
3

4. f
12
31
12
(
2010A
2011A
142,269 120,989
17,871 18,459
5,109
5,464
4,506
3,143
5,735
7,466
2,522
2,386
124,398 102,531
0
0
121,264 100,190
3,134
2,341
89,000 88,544
32,811 59,414
10,907
3,265
18,278
54,590
3,627
1,560
56,189 29,129
56,168
29,118
21
11
53,269 32,446
46,383
46,417
41,616
41,761
(34,730) (55,733)
0
0
)
2012A
2013F
2014F
89,804 110,430 141,884
12,711 41,594 78,276
2,928
17,449
56,629
4,262
8,129
7,216
3,867
14,130
12,544
1,654
1,886
1,886
77,093 68,836 63,608
0
0
0
74,766
68,514
63,286
2,328
322
322
67,840 63,800 63,203
50,552 43,624 43,026
3,334
5,322
4,725
45,982
37,089
37,089
1,237
1,212
1,212
17,288 20,177 20,177
17,285
20,175
20,175
3
2
2
21,964 46,629 78,681
54,051
60,386
60,386
39,185
41,312
41,312
(71,271) (55,069) (23,017)
0
0
0
(
12
2010A
2012A
2013F
)
31
(
)
(9.8)
N.A.
(43.6)
N.A.
N.A.
(5.6)
N.A.
19.9
N.A.
N.A.
61.1
N.A.
127.1
N.A.
N.A.
25.9
69.1
38.9
69.7
69.7
(48.6)
(53.1)
34.3
(56.2)
(16.0)
N.A.
(38.4)
(40.6)
43.5
(44.0)
(14.7)
N.A.
35.6
34.5
61.3
33.2
18.9
55.1
258.0
241.2
(11.8)
(0.3)
1.1
0.0
0.3
0.3
73,791
288.0
274.7
(9.9)
(0.3)
12.0
0.4
0.3
0.2
69,292
122.8
85.4
15.3
0.5
17.0
0.6
1.0
0.8
50,077
72.8
0.8
25.1
0.9
37.0
1.3
1.8
1.7
20,225
(4.53)
2.52
6.99
8.06
(4.28)
N.D.
(2.95)
2.69
4.17
6.70
(2.72)
N.D.
3.13
5.65
7.72
9.41
3.25
N.D.
5.30
7.82
13.02
11.85
5.50
N.D.
0.3
72.9
30.7
31.9
71.7
0.3
40.0
44.1
34.5
49.6
0.6
90.7
52.2
34.2
108.7
0.6
64.0
36.8
24.1
76.7
2010A
2011A
2012A
2013F
2014F
2010A
30,554
(10,661)
31,914
9,302
0
(54,833)
(54,716)
0
(117)
(24,279)
24,011
15,102
2011A
1,734
(21,003)
32,679
(9,942)
0
(10,812)
(10,823)
0
11
(9,078)
9,433
180
2012A
17,121
(15,539)
29,701
2,958
0
(4,263)
(4,246)
0
(17)
12,857
(15,393)
5,057
2013F
22,456
18,886
15,241
(11,671)
0
(7,846)
(7,841)
0
(5)
14,610
(4)
6,000
2014F
49,181
32,052
15,228
1,901
0
(10,000)
(10,000)
0
0
39,181
0
0
9,263
(10)
355
(20,441)
(8)
(2,536)
(6,003)
(1)
14,607
0
0
39,181
)
2010A
2011A
2012A
2013F
2014F
0.3
50.5
39.7
96.0
(5.9)
2014F
71,595
37,555
34,040
813
33,227
(1,175)
153
1,328
0
0
0
32,052
0
32,052
48,455
5.30
47.5
46.4
67.7
44.8
25.4
51.2
139.8
130.2
(7.2)
(0.5)
23.4
1.6
0.5
0.4
64,745
2013F
56,874
36,630
20,244
597
19,647
(1,290)
30
1,319
0
529
0
18,886
0
18,886
34,888
3.13
2014F
(2.34)
4.67
11.69
9.10
(2.02)
N.D.
)
2011A
(17.9)
(22.2)
54.8
(25.7)
(8.1)
N.A.
(
(
EBITDA
14.8
N.A.
12.3
N.A.
N.A.
31
31
2010A
2011A
2012A
41,454 37,385 35,296
48,857
55,548
48,846
(7,403) (18,163) (13,550)
1,811
1,707
789
(9,214) (19,870) (14,339)
(1,273)
(1,600)
(1,409)
32
44
20
1,305
1,644
1,429
0
0
0
(175)
467
210
0
0
0
(10,661) (21,003) (15,539)
0
0
0
(10,661) (21,003) (15,539)
22,700
12,809
15,362
(2.34)
(4.53)
(2.95)
8,916
(7)
(268)
12
(% )
EBITDA
Free Cash Flow
(%)
EBITDA
/
(%)
(%)
(X)
(X)
Cash Flow Int. Coverage (X)
Cash Flow/Int. & ST Debt (X)
(X)
(X)
(NT$
)
(NT$
EBITDA/shr
)
ROIC
12 31
(Return on Invested Capital)
1-
2010A
2011A
2012A
2013F
2014F
12 31
+
40.9%
61.2%
54.2%
37.6%
31.2%
1/
+
0.0
0.3
0.2
0.4
0.3
http://research.kgi.com
2013
(22.2%)
(53.1%)
(40.6%)
34.5%
46.4%
10
23
=
4.4%
4.6%
2.2%
1.1%
1.1%
+
2.9
2.7
2.1
1.2
0.9
x
12 31
(X)
+
77.0%
87.4%
84.1%
26.8%
21.3%
=
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
x 1-
0.3
0.3
0.4
0.6
0.9
(22.2%)
(53.1%)
(40.6%)
34.5%
46.4%
0.3
0.3
0.4
0.6
0.9
=
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
ROIC
(7.4%)
(17.7%)
(17.1%)
22.0%
40.1%
4

5. f
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Feb-11
Apr-11
Jun-11
Aug-11
Nov-11
Jan-12
Mar-12
Jun-12
Aug-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Mar-13 May-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
:
( )
18.70
18.15
5.53
26.00
4.65
5.00
26.00
26.00
4.65
17-Apr-12
8.03
5.95
5.00
18-Jan-12
5.33
5.45
5.95
20-Oct-11
6.16
8.65
5.45
20-Jul-11
7.32
13.40
8.65
26-May-11
12.40
22.00
13.40
23-Oct-13
16-Oct-13
18-Jul-12
18-Feb-11
17.70
23.00
22.00
22-Jan-10
4-Feb-09
24.85
21.15
19.00
13.40
23.00
19.00
:
http://research.kgi.com
2013
10
23
5

6. 500
A
2703B-2704
104
201103
700
886.2.2181.8888
886.2.8501.1691
2014
A
24D1
518008
852.2878.6888
8th - 11th floors, Asia Centre Building
852.2878.6800
173 South Sathorn Road, Bangkok 10120, Thailand
66.2658.8888
66.2658.8014
(OP)
(Excessive Return)
(
)
40%
(N)
(
(
40%
)
)
40%
(U)
40%
(NR)
(R )
/
*
http://research.kgi.com
=(
/
2013
10
)–1
23
6