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3Q12                                                 2Q                   3Q12

2012   7    23




1                                                         iPhone               iPad      iPod        Mac               3Q12
2   886.2.2181.8742
3   mingchi.kuo@kgisia.com.tw
                                                                                                    2H12               4Q12


                                           2Q12                                        2Q12                   iPhone/iPad/iPod/Mac
                                     (Portable)/Mac (Desktop)                       29.4/16.1/6.1/3.8/0.9 (mn)           QoQ
                                     -16/36.8/-20.3/35.2/-21.4 (%)


                                          3Q12                     9



                                              iPhone 5 iPad mini 13” Retina MacBook Pro                               iPod touch iPod
                                              nano         9
                                                   iMac        9
                                                           9
                                                               New iPad                       10
                                                                                                    New iPad


                                                                   9                               10
                                                                   8       9                                     EMS               9



                                                 2H12

                                                                                                                  modified New iPad

                                                                                                                  New 21.5” & 27” iMac

                                                                                                          iPad mini

                                                                                              iPhone 5

                                                                                              13” Retina MacBook Pro

                                                                                          All new design iPod touch & iPod nano


                                             Jul                       Aug                          Sep                      Oct



                                                     iPhone                     iPad               Mac                iPod




           http://research.kgi.com                         2012        7       23                                                      1
3Q12



                                                                              CY1Q12       CY2Q12     CY3Q12       CY4Q12     CY2012
                                 /                                             (   )     (KGI   )   (KGI   )     (KGI   )   (KGI   )
                          iPhone            iPhone 5                               0            0     15,379       48,080     63,458
                                            iPhone 4S                          29,083      20,187     12,903        6,608     68,780
                                            iPhone 4                            4,905       7,994      3,503        1,200     17,602
                                            iPhone 3GS                          1,076       1,269        329            0      2,674
                                                                              35,064       29,450     32,114       55,887    152,514
                          iPad              New iPad                            4,080      10,321     12,760        9,827     36,989
                                            iPad mini                              0            0      1,778       13,336     15,115
                                            iPad 2                              7,718       5,817      2,502          604     16,640
                                                                              11,798       16,138     17,040       23,767     68,743
                          iPod              iPod touch                          3,988       3,582      4,968        8,044     20,581
                                            iPod nano                           1,667       1,251      3,576        4,540     11,033
                                            iPod shuffle                        1,690         984      1,879        2,067      6,620
                                            iPod classic                         328          299        374          459      1,459
                                                                               7,673        6,116     10,796       15,109     39,694
                          Mac (       )     13” Retina MacBook Pro                 0            0        328        1,559      1,887
                                            15” Retina MacBook Pro                 0          326        508          422      1,256
                                            11” MacBook Air                      469          601        482          414      1,965
                                            13” MacBook Air                      530          748        891          603      2,772
                                            13” MacBook Pro                     1,322       1,579      1,586          955      5,442
                                            15” MacBook Pro                      451          557        260          209      1,477
                                            17” MacBook Pro                       46            0          0            0         46
                                                                               2,818        3,810      4,055        4,162     14,845
                          Mac (       )     21” iMac                             671          553        590          952      2,766
                                            27” iMac                             354          229        262          590      1,435
                                            Mac mini                             174          160        197          220        751
                                                                               1,199         942       1,049        1,763      4,953
                          Mac                                                  4,017        4,753      5,104        5,925     19,798




                          2Q12
                                                     2Q12                         iPad      MacBook
                                                                            2Q12


                                          iPhone                                                         iPhone 5


                                          iPad                                    New iPad
                                          iPod
                                          MacBook                                                   Ivy Bridge        13” Retina
                                          MacBook Pro
                                          Mac (Desktop)              iMac




                                     2Q12                                                             1Q12
                                                 2Q12




http://research.kgi.com                                    2012      7   23                                                      2
3Q12



                          3Q12
                                                                          9




                                                                                       3Q12
                                                            CY2Q12          CY3Q12
                          (       /     )                 (KGI   )        (KGI    )           (%)
                                                                                                       iPhone 5 9
                          iPhone                            29,450            32,114          9.0

                                                                                                                               N ew iPad
                          iPad                              16,138            17,040          5.6
                                                                                                                 iPad mini                                 3Q


                                                                                                                      iPod touch iPod nano
                          iPod                               6,116            10,796      76.5                                iPod touch        iPhone 5
                                                                                                       In-Cell

                                                                                                       13" Retina MacBook Pro 發售, 我們預 期會吸引 原本要
                                                                                                       採購13" MacBook Pro 與MacBook Air的使用者 。但因 13"
                          Mac (             )                7,621             7,783          2.1
                                                                                                       Retinam MacBook Pro 出貨量 受限於面 板與組 裝良率 ,
                                                                                                       故對整 體貢獻有 限

                                                                                                            Ivy Bridge               iMac
                          Mac (             )                     942          1,049      11.3




                                                                                  3Q12
                                                9


                                                    3Q12
                                                (     /       )                                  Jul                   Aug                Sep          CY 3Q12
                          iPhone                                                              9,298                   8,156            14,660            32,114
                          iPad                                                                4,890                   4,886             7,264            17,040
                          iPod                                                                2,885                   3,111             4,800            10,796
                          Mac (                 )                                             1,306                   1,243             1,505             4,055
                          Mac (                 )                                               282                     289               478             1,049
                          Mac (          )                                                    4,474                   4,644             6,783             5,204
                                       (%)                                                       Jul                   Aug                Sep
                          iPhone                                                                   -                   (1.5)            71.0                        -
                          iPad                                                                     -                   (0.1)            48.7                        -
                          iPod                                                                     -                    7.8             54.3                        -
                          Mac (                 )                                                  -                   (4.8)            21.0                        -
                          Mac (                 )                                                  -                    2.5             65.4                        -
                          Mac (         )                                                          -                   (3.5)            29.4                        -




                                      4Q12
                          4Q12


                                                                                        MacBook                                              13       Retina
                          MacBook Pro                             9                    MacBook




http://research.kgi.com                                            2012    7      23                                                                            3
3Q12



                                        13        Retina MacBook Pro                           13     MacBook Pro
                                            13        MacBook Pro                  13         MacBook Air
                          MacBook Air                      15       Retina MacBook Pro
                                   Retina display                                              13     Retina MacBook Pro
                                                            MacBook Pro                 Air
                                                      13      Retina MacBook Pro
                                                                      iOS                              MacBook
                                       13        Retina MacBook Pro


                                                      NB        Retina display                              Retina MacBook Pro
                                                                2013




                                                      9




                                                                    iPhone 5            New iPod touch          iPod nano
                                                                       8
                                       iPad mini                               8                                New iPad
                                                                                   New iPad             8
                                                           iPad mini                                                          New
                                       iPad                                New iPad                             Apple


                                       MacBook             13       Retina MacBook Pro


                                       Mac        Desktop                      7                                                8
                                                                iMac               MoM


                                                                                                                7               8
                                                                                                            8
                          iPhone        iPod




                          iPhone & iPad                              (2354.TW, NT$105.5,                             )
                          (6269.TW, NT$113.0,                              )                        (3008.TW, NT$581,
                            )               (3406.TW, NT$203.5,                                 )                        (4915.TW,
                          NT$24.1,                )                        (2392.TW, NT$58.2,                    )
                            (3042.TW, NT$46.2,                         )                               (2308.TW, NT$98.0,
                                   )                  (iPad)               (3149.TW, NT$80.0,                    )




http://research.kgi.com                                2012     7    23                                                          4
3Q12



                          MacBook                                                    (2474.TW, NT$165.0,                        )
                          (6121.TW, NT$175,                                     )            (3211.TW, NT$149.5,                              )
                                                                                            (8163.TW, NT$20.9,                                 )
                          (2387.TW, NT$12.65,                                   )                              (3324.TW, NT$25.6,
                            )                                   (3376.TW, NT$84.0,                                )
                                                                    (6282.TW, NT$17.0,                        )


                          iMac



                                                                     3Q12
                                                (       /       )                                Jul           Aug                 S ep            CY 3Q12
                          i Phone                                                   11,000 - 12,000 15,000 - 17,000    19,000 - 22,000        45,000 - 51,000
                          i Pad                                                       5,200 - 6,000   5,000 - 5,500      7,500 - 8,500        17,700 - 20,000
                          i Pod                                                       3,700 - 4,150   5,000 - 5,200      5,150 - 5,300        13,850 - 14,650
                          Mac (           )                                           1,550 - 1,650   1,450 - 1,550      1,350 - 1,450          4,350 - 4,650
                          Mac (           )                                              200 - 250        550 - 650          850 - 950          1,600 - 1,850
                          Mac (       )                                               1,750 - 1,900   2,000 - 2,200      2,200 - 2,400          5,950 - 6,500
                          i Pod                                                       3,700 - 4,150   5,000 - 5,200      5,150 - 5,300        13,850 - 14,650
                                    (%) (           )                                            Jul           Aug                 S ep
                          i Phone                                                                  -          39.1                28.1                        -
                          i Pad                                                                    -           (6.3)              52.4                        -
                          i Pod                                                                    -          29.9                 2.5                        -
                          Mac (           )                                                        -           (6.3)             (13.3)                       -
                          Mac (           )                                                        -         166.7                50.0                        -
                          Mac (       )                                                            -          15.1                 9.5                        -
                          i Pod                                                                    -          29.9                 2.5                        -




                                 EMS
                                 EMS                                MacBook                                                               9
                                                                                                                            EMS
                                            7                           8                                                                      8



                                              EMS                    3Q12
                          EMS       (               /       )                                   Jul            Aug                Sep              CY 3Q12
                          iPhone                                                            11,748           12,695            18,139                42,582
                          iPad                                                               5,096            4,985             7,980                18,061
                          iPod                                                               3,033            3,680             6,017                12,731
                          Mac (      )                                                       1,533            1,393             1,329                 4,255
                          Mac (      )                                                         212              277               381                   870
                          Mac (   )                                                          4,778            5,350             7,727                17,856
                          MoM (%)                                                               Jul            Aug                Sep
                          iPhone                                                                  -             8.1             42.9                          -
                          iPad                                                                    -            (2.2)            60.1                          -
                          iPod                                                                    -           21.3              63.5                          -
                          Mac (      )                                                            -            (9.1)             (4.6)                        -
                          Mac (      )                                                            -           30.7              37.5                          -
                          Mac (   )                                                               -           12.0              44.4                          -




http://research.kgi.com                                         2012        7   23                                                                        5
3Q12


                                    Apple 2H12         EMS
                          2H12       EMS
                          i Phone                  iPhone 5                       100       0       0        0
                                                   iPhone 4S                       60       0      40        0
                                                   iPhone 4                        70       0      30        0
                                                   iPhone 3GS                     100       0       0        0
                          i Pad                    New iPad                       100       0       0        0
                                                   iPad mini                       60       0      40        0
                                                   iPad 2                         100       0       0        0
                          i Pod                    iPod touch                       0     100       0        0
                                                   iPod nano                      100       0       0        0
                                                   iPod shuffle                     0       0       0      100
                                                   iPod classic                     0       0       0      100
                          Mac (        )           13” Retina MacBook Pro           0     100       0        0
                                                   15” Retina MacBook Pro           0     100       0        0
                                                   11” MacBook Air                  0     100       0        0
                                                   13” MacBook Air                  0     100       0        0
                                                   13” MacBook Pro                 40      60       0        0
                                                   15” MacBook Pro                  0     100       0        0
                                                   17” MacBook Pro                  0     100       0        0
                          Mac (        )           21” iMac                         0     100       0        0
                                                   27” iMac                         0     100       0        0
                                                   Mac mini                       100       0       0        0




                                                 (2317.TW, NT$86.6,                )            iPhone 5
                                            9
                                                                                   New iPad
                                     3Q12




                                            (2382.TW, NT$74.3,              )   MacBook
                          (4938.TW, NT$35.1,                      )
                          EMS




http://research.kgi.com                           2012     7    23                                          6
100                     A    1907-1909                   104                700
                                 200051                                                              886.2.2181.8888
                                                                                                     886.2.8501.1691


                                                   2014                 A     24D1
                                 518008




                          852.2878.6888                                                        8th - 11th floors, Asia Centre Building
                          852.2878.6800                                                        173 South Sathorn Road, Bangkok 10120, Thailand
                                                                                                     66.2658.8888
                                                                                                     66.2658.8014




                                (OP)                                                                 (Excessive Return)
                                                          (        )                           40%
                          (N)                                                                                                            (   )
                                                                  40%        40%
                                (U)                                                                                                      (   )
                                                                  40%
                            (NR)
                                            (R )                                           /


                                                    *             =(                   /         )–1




http://research.kgi.com                                                     2012   7           23                                                7

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3 q12 蘋果觀察 --凱基

  • 1. 3Q12 2Q 3Q12 2012 7 23 1 iPhone iPad iPod Mac 3Q12 2 886.2.2181.8742 3 mingchi.kuo@kgisia.com.tw 2H12 4Q12 2Q12 2Q12 iPhone/iPad/iPod/Mac (Portable)/Mac (Desktop) 29.4/16.1/6.1/3.8/0.9 (mn) QoQ -16/36.8/-20.3/35.2/-21.4 (%) 3Q12 9 iPhone 5 iPad mini 13” Retina MacBook Pro iPod touch iPod nano 9 iMac 9 9 New iPad 10 New iPad 9 10 8 9 EMS 9 2H12 modified New iPad New 21.5” & 27” iMac iPad mini iPhone 5 13” Retina MacBook Pro All new design iPod touch & iPod nano Jul Aug Sep Oct iPhone iPad Mac iPod http://research.kgi.com 2012 7 23 1
  • 2. 3Q12 CY1Q12 CY2Q12 CY3Q12 CY4Q12 CY2012 / ( ) (KGI ) (KGI ) (KGI ) (KGI ) iPhone iPhone 5 0 0 15,379 48,080 63,458 iPhone 4S 29,083 20,187 12,903 6,608 68,780 iPhone 4 4,905 7,994 3,503 1,200 17,602 iPhone 3GS 1,076 1,269 329 0 2,674 35,064 29,450 32,114 55,887 152,514 iPad New iPad 4,080 10,321 12,760 9,827 36,989 iPad mini 0 0 1,778 13,336 15,115 iPad 2 7,718 5,817 2,502 604 16,640 11,798 16,138 17,040 23,767 68,743 iPod iPod touch 3,988 3,582 4,968 8,044 20,581 iPod nano 1,667 1,251 3,576 4,540 11,033 iPod shuffle 1,690 984 1,879 2,067 6,620 iPod classic 328 299 374 459 1,459 7,673 6,116 10,796 15,109 39,694 Mac ( ) 13” Retina MacBook Pro 0 0 328 1,559 1,887 15” Retina MacBook Pro 0 326 508 422 1,256 11” MacBook Air 469 601 482 414 1,965 13” MacBook Air 530 748 891 603 2,772 13” MacBook Pro 1,322 1,579 1,586 955 5,442 15” MacBook Pro 451 557 260 209 1,477 17” MacBook Pro 46 0 0 0 46 2,818 3,810 4,055 4,162 14,845 Mac ( ) 21” iMac 671 553 590 952 2,766 27” iMac 354 229 262 590 1,435 Mac mini 174 160 197 220 751 1,199 942 1,049 1,763 4,953 Mac 4,017 4,753 5,104 5,925 19,798 2Q12 2Q12 iPad MacBook 2Q12 iPhone iPhone 5 iPad New iPad iPod MacBook Ivy Bridge 13” Retina MacBook Pro Mac (Desktop) iMac 2Q12 1Q12 2Q12 http://research.kgi.com 2012 7 23 2
  • 3. 3Q12 3Q12 9 3Q12 CY2Q12 CY3Q12 ( / ) (KGI ) (KGI ) (%) iPhone 5 9 iPhone 29,450 32,114 9.0 N ew iPad iPad 16,138 17,040 5.6 iPad mini 3Q iPod touch iPod nano iPod 6,116 10,796 76.5 iPod touch iPhone 5 In-Cell 13" Retina MacBook Pro 發售, 我們預 期會吸引 原本要 採購13" MacBook Pro 與MacBook Air的使用者 。但因 13" Mac ( ) 7,621 7,783 2.1 Retinam MacBook Pro 出貨量 受限於面 板與組 裝良率 , 故對整 體貢獻有 限 Ivy Bridge iMac Mac ( ) 942 1,049 11.3 3Q12 9 3Q12 ( / ) Jul Aug Sep CY 3Q12 iPhone 9,298 8,156 14,660 32,114 iPad 4,890 4,886 7,264 17,040 iPod 2,885 3,111 4,800 10,796 Mac ( ) 1,306 1,243 1,505 4,055 Mac ( ) 282 289 478 1,049 Mac ( ) 4,474 4,644 6,783 5,204 (%) Jul Aug Sep iPhone - (1.5) 71.0 - iPad - (0.1) 48.7 - iPod - 7.8 54.3 - Mac ( ) - (4.8) 21.0 - Mac ( ) - 2.5 65.4 - Mac ( ) - (3.5) 29.4 - 4Q12 4Q12 MacBook 13 Retina MacBook Pro 9 MacBook http://research.kgi.com 2012 7 23 3
  • 4. 3Q12 13 Retina MacBook Pro 13 MacBook Pro 13 MacBook Pro 13 MacBook Air MacBook Air 15 Retina MacBook Pro Retina display 13 Retina MacBook Pro MacBook Pro Air 13 Retina MacBook Pro iOS MacBook 13 Retina MacBook Pro NB Retina display Retina MacBook Pro 2013 9 iPhone 5 New iPod touch iPod nano 8 iPad mini 8 New iPad New iPad 8 iPad mini New iPad New iPad Apple MacBook 13 Retina MacBook Pro Mac Desktop 7 8 iMac MoM 7 8 8 iPhone iPod iPhone & iPad (2354.TW, NT$105.5, ) (6269.TW, NT$113.0, ) (3008.TW, NT$581, ) (3406.TW, NT$203.5, ) (4915.TW, NT$24.1, ) (2392.TW, NT$58.2, ) (3042.TW, NT$46.2, ) (2308.TW, NT$98.0, ) (iPad) (3149.TW, NT$80.0, ) http://research.kgi.com 2012 7 23 4
  • 5. 3Q12 MacBook (2474.TW, NT$165.0, ) (6121.TW, NT$175, ) (3211.TW, NT$149.5, ) (8163.TW, NT$20.9, ) (2387.TW, NT$12.65, ) (3324.TW, NT$25.6, ) (3376.TW, NT$84.0, ) (6282.TW, NT$17.0, ) iMac 3Q12 ( / ) Jul Aug S ep CY 3Q12 i Phone 11,000 - 12,000 15,000 - 17,000 19,000 - 22,000 45,000 - 51,000 i Pad 5,200 - 6,000 5,000 - 5,500 7,500 - 8,500 17,700 - 20,000 i Pod 3,700 - 4,150 5,000 - 5,200 5,150 - 5,300 13,850 - 14,650 Mac ( ) 1,550 - 1,650 1,450 - 1,550 1,350 - 1,450 4,350 - 4,650 Mac ( ) 200 - 250 550 - 650 850 - 950 1,600 - 1,850 Mac ( ) 1,750 - 1,900 2,000 - 2,200 2,200 - 2,400 5,950 - 6,500 i Pod 3,700 - 4,150 5,000 - 5,200 5,150 - 5,300 13,850 - 14,650 (%) ( ) Jul Aug S ep i Phone - 39.1 28.1 - i Pad - (6.3) 52.4 - i Pod - 29.9 2.5 - Mac ( ) - (6.3) (13.3) - Mac ( ) - 166.7 50.0 - Mac ( ) - 15.1 9.5 - i Pod - 29.9 2.5 - EMS EMS MacBook 9 EMS 7 8 8 EMS 3Q12 EMS ( / ) Jul Aug Sep CY 3Q12 iPhone 11,748 12,695 18,139 42,582 iPad 5,096 4,985 7,980 18,061 iPod 3,033 3,680 6,017 12,731 Mac ( ) 1,533 1,393 1,329 4,255 Mac ( ) 212 277 381 870 Mac ( ) 4,778 5,350 7,727 17,856 MoM (%) Jul Aug Sep iPhone - 8.1 42.9 - iPad - (2.2) 60.1 - iPod - 21.3 63.5 - Mac ( ) - (9.1) (4.6) - Mac ( ) - 30.7 37.5 - Mac ( ) - 12.0 44.4 - http://research.kgi.com 2012 7 23 5
  • 6. 3Q12 Apple 2H12 EMS 2H12 EMS i Phone iPhone 5 100 0 0 0 iPhone 4S 60 0 40 0 iPhone 4 70 0 30 0 iPhone 3GS 100 0 0 0 i Pad New iPad 100 0 0 0 iPad mini 60 0 40 0 iPad 2 100 0 0 0 i Pod iPod touch 0 100 0 0 iPod nano 100 0 0 0 iPod shuffle 0 0 0 100 iPod classic 0 0 0 100 Mac ( ) 13” Retina MacBook Pro 0 100 0 0 15” Retina MacBook Pro 0 100 0 0 11” MacBook Air 0 100 0 0 13” MacBook Air 0 100 0 0 13” MacBook Pro 40 60 0 0 15” MacBook Pro 0 100 0 0 17” MacBook Pro 0 100 0 0 Mac ( ) 21” iMac 0 100 0 0 27” iMac 0 100 0 0 Mac mini 100 0 0 0 (2317.TW, NT$86.6, ) iPhone 5 9 New iPad 3Q12 (2382.TW, NT$74.3, ) MacBook (4938.TW, NT$35.1, ) EMS http://research.kgi.com 2012 7 23 6
  • 7. 100 A 1907-1909 104 700 200051 886.2.2181.8888 886.2.8501.1691 2014 A 24D1 518008 852.2878.6888 8th - 11th floors, Asia Centre Building 852.2878.6800 173 South Sathorn Road, Bangkok 10120, Thailand 66.2658.8888 66.2658.8014 (OP) (Excessive Return) ( ) 40% (N) ( ) 40% 40% (U) ( ) 40% (NR) (R ) / * =( / )–1 http://research.kgi.com 2012 7 23 7