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Predicting Cancel Users in Offline Events

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Predicting Cancel Users in Offline Events @y_benjo http://d.hatena.ne.jp/repose/
Today’s LT: ML Machine Learning
Offline Events Meetup User Conf Yaki-ton
Problem
Cancel Users
概要 • ファッキンドタキャン野郎を予測し たい
Solve: Predict #Cancel
Data • Source: ATND Beta (atnd.org/events/) • 17,343 Events (ignore outliers) • 99,911 Users • Model: Support Vector Regression
Results Mean Square Error 15 11.4383 12 9 6 Better 3 0 Average Title Title + Body
Features word score hbstudy 1.475 bpstudy 1.174 増員 1.062 appbank 0.771 1981 0.709
Future work • Why bad ? • Output minus #cancel • Too simple: Use Metadata(location, time, similar events ...) • Another approach: User based model • Make Blacklist

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