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Manhattan First Quarter 2010 Real Estate Market Report Report
1. Manhattan
Market Overview
1Q 10
A Quarterly Survey of Manhattan Co-op and Condo Sales
Prepared by Miller Samuel Inc.
Appraisal and consulting services covering
the New York City metropolitan area
Number of sales doubled from a year Manhattan Market Matrix Current Qtr % Chg Prior Qtr % Chg Prior Year Qtr
ago as price indicators stabilized Average Sales Price $1,426,994 10.1% $1,296,156 -21.8% $1,825,847
Average Price per Square Foot $1,038 -1.2% $1,051 -17.6% $1,259
Number of sales returned to normal levels, Median Sales Price $868,000 7.2% $810,000 -11% $975,000
inventory jumped There were approximately New Development $1,160,000 3.1% $1,125,000 -22.9% $1,505,000
twice the number of sales in the first quarter of Re-Sale $830,000 11.4% $745,000 23% $675,000
2010 as the same period a year ago, however, Number of Sales 2,384 -3.6% 2,473 99.5% 1,195
this is the first quarter-over-quarter decline in Days on Market (from Last List Date) 124 -39.1% 204 -26.9% 170
the past year. The number of sales jumped 99.5% Listing Discount (from Last List Price) 5.4% 12.8% 12.4%
to 2,384 sales in the first quarter from 1,195 sales Listing Inventory 8,027 17.2% 6,851 -23.1% 10,445
in the same period a year ago, but declined
3.6% from 2,473 sales in the prior quarter. The QUARTERLY�AVERAGE�SALES�PRICE�/�MANHATTAN
number of sales over the last three quarters has QUARTERLY�AVERAGE�SALES�PRICE�/�MANHATTAN
$2,000,000
been consistent with the 2,301 quarterly average $2,000,000
$1,800,000
number of sales over the last decade. The first $1,800,000
$1,600,000
quarter of 2009 saw the lowest level of sales $1,600,000
$1,400,000
activity over the prior 15 years and was reflective $1,400,000
$1,200,000
of the nearly “frozen” market conditions after the $1,200,000
$1,000,000
Lehman Brothers bankruptcy in the autumn of $1,000,000
$800,000
2008 and the onset of the credit crunch. The $800,000
$600,000
rise in the number of sales over the past year $600,000
$400,000
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
reflected a release of “pent-up” demand resulting $400,000
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
NEW�DEVELOPMENT�MARKET�SHARE��MEDIAN�SALES�PRICE New Developement Re-sale
in a decline in the number of apartments available
NEW�DEVELOPMENT�MARKET�SHARE��MEDIAN�SALES�PRICE
$2,000,000 New Developement Re-sale 50%
for sale. Low mortgage rates, a surging stock 50%
$2,000,000
market, tax credits, and a new affordability from $1,600,000 Median Sales Price 40%
a sharp decline in property values stimulated $1,600,000 Median Sales Price 40%
$1,200,000 30%
demand. There were 8,027 listings at the end
$1,200,000 30%
of the first quarter, 23.1% below the 10,445 $800,000 20%
listings in the same period last year, but 17.2% $800,000 20%
higher than the prior quarter total of 6,851. This $400,000 Market Share New Development (Units)
10%
$400,000 10%
excludes, however, an estimated 6,500 units of Market Share New Development (Units)
0%
$0 1Q 09 2Q 09 3Q 09 4Q 09 1Q 10
new development “shadow inventory”. Although $0 1Q 09 2Q 09 3Q 09 4Q 09 1Q 10 0%
inventory is at its second highest level of the past AVERAGE�PRICE�PER�SQ�FT�/�CO�OP Downtown East Side West Side Uptown
decade, total inventory remains slightly above AVERAGE�PRICE�PER�SQ�FT�/�CO�OP
median sales price of a Manhattan apartment Downtown quarter. Side priceWest Side
$1,400 prior East This indicator hasUptown
shown
the ten year average of 7,117 listings. was $868,000, 11% below the $975,000 median signs of stability since the second quarter of
$1,400
$1,200
Price indicators remained below prior year sales price of the prior year quarter, but 7.2% 2009 as rising sales helped stem the decline of
$1,200
$1,000
quarter, showing near term stability The above the $810,000 median sales price of the property values that had peaked at $1,025,000
$1,000
$800
$800
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$600
$600
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$400
2. 1Q 10 MANhAttAN MArket overvIew Prudential douglas elliMan real estate
Co-oP market
in the second quarter of 2008. The average sales “bottom up” with first-time buyers providing a
price fell 21.8% to $1,426,994 from $1,825,847 in large market share. While studio and 1-bedroom
the prior year quarter, but up 10.1% from the apartments are considered the “entry-level”
prior quarter average sales price of $1,296,156. Price indicators were mixed as market, studios saw the most change in market
The increase in both price indicators from the number of sales surged share. Studios comprised 15% of all co-op sales
prior quarter was reflective of the sharp jump in the first quarter compared to 26% in the
Record increase in number of sales from prior
in market share of 2-bedroom apartments and prior year quarter and 23% in the prior quarter.
decline in studio apartments. This shift was seen year quarter There were 1,111 co-op sales in the
QUARTERLY�AVERAGE�SALES�PRICE�/�MANHATTAN
first quarter, a 168.4% surge from the 414 sales in
QUARTERLY�AVERAGE�SALES�PRICE�/�MANHATTAN The 1-bedroom market share remained largely
in the price per square foot metric which does $2,000,000
stabilized at 40%, unchanged from the prior year
not generally see the same level of volatility from the prior year quarter, which at that time was a
$2,000,000
$1,800,000
$1,800,000
16-year low. The number of sales fell 12.1% from quarter and down from 42% in the prior quarter.
unit mix swings as compared to the other price $1,600,000
$1,600,000
1,264 sales in the prior quarter. The rise in the At the same time the higher end 3-bedroom
indicators. Price per square foot fell 17.6% to $1,400,000
$1,400,000
number of sales over the past year contributed
$1,200,000 market has seen roughly twice the 5.6% market
$1,038 in the first quarter from $1,259 in the same $1,200,000
to$1,000,000 in listing inventory. At the end of the
a decline share average of the past five years. Market share
period last year and slipped 1.2% from $1,051 in $1,000,000
$800,000
first quarter, 3,809 co-op apartments were listed has remained between 10% and 11% for the past
the prior quarter. $800,000
$600,000
for $600,000 20.8% from the 4,807 apartments
sale, down three quarters.
Listing discount and days on market $400,000
contracted sharply Due to the surge in sales listed in the prior year 00
$400,000 99 quarter,01 24.1% higher Price indicators mixed The median sales price
but 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
activity in the second half of 2009, sales in than the 3,069 listings at the end of 2009. jumped 16.6% to $685,000 in the first quarter
NEW�DEVELOPMENT�MARKET�SHARE��MEDIAN�SALES�PRICE New Developement Re-sale
NEW�DEVELOPMENT�MARKET�SHARE��MEDIAN�SALES�PRICE
the first quarter reflected more recently listed Monthly absorption—the number of months it from the prior year quarter result of Re-sale 50%
$2,000,000
New Developement
$587,500,
$2,000,000 50%
properties. The average days on market fell would take existing inventory to be sold at the which had been a 5-year low, and was up 8.7%
$1,600,000 Median Sales Price 40%
to 124 days from 170 days in the prior year current pace of sales—averaged 10.3 months in from $630,000 in the prior quarter. The other
$1,600,000 Median Sales Price 40%
quarter and dropped from a recent high of 204 the first quarter, a significant improvement from price indicators showed declines from the prior
$1,200,000 30%
$1,200,000 30%
days in the prior quarter. Listing discount also the 34.8-month absorption rate during the same year quarter. Average sales price slipped20% 5%
$800,000
contracted sharply as sellers were becoming period last year. The co-op absorption rate has to $1,133,715 in the first quarter from $1,193,144
$800,000 20%
more in sync with market conditions. The listing averaged 8.9 months over the past decade. Price in the same period last year, but jumped 16.3%
$400,000 Market Share New Development (Units)
10%
$400,000 10%
discount fell to 5.4% from 12.4% in the prior year recovery over the past year had been from the from $975,049. Price per Development (Units)
Market Share New
square foot settled at
$0 0%
quarter and from 12.8% in the prior quarter. One $0
1Q 09
1Q 09
2Q 09
2Q 09
3Q 09
3Q 09
4Q 09
4Q 09
1Q 10
1Q 10 0%
of the constants in market feedback has been
AVERAGE�PRICE�PER�SQ�FT�/�CO�OP Downtown East Side West Side Uptown
limited availability of re-sale listings despite the AVERAGE�PRICE�PER�SQ�FT�/�CO�OP Downtown East Side West Side Uptown
$1,400
near-normalized level of inventory. Observations $1,400
indicate that newly-listed, over-priced properties $1,200
$1,200
help properly-priced properties to sell quicker $1,000
$1,000
with less discounting. While property that was $800
sold during the quarter was priced closer to $800
$600
market value than typically seen over the past $600
year, inventory that is still significantly over- $400
$400
priced remains on the market. $200 1Q 09 2Q 09 3Q 09 4Q 09 1Q 10
$200 1Q 09 2Q 09 3Q 09 4Q 09 1Q 10
Is “normalized” sales activity of the second
LISTING�DISCOUNT�VS��DAYS�ON�MARKET�/�CO�OP
half of 2009 sustainable in 2010? The return LISTING�DISCOUNT�VS��DAYS�ON�MARKET�/�CO�OP
20% 200
to more normal levels of sales activity over the 20% 200
past three quarters was fueled by low mortgage 16% Days On Market 175
rates, improved confidence as a result of 16% Days On Market 175
12% 150
significant gains in the stock market, and the first- 12% 150
time buyer and existing homeowner tax credits. 8% 125
There remains concern in 2010 over the potential 8% 125
4% 100
for rising mortgage rates, expiration of the tax 4%
Listing Discount
100
Listing Discount
credit and an economy that has not established 0% 1Q 09 2Q 09 3Q 09 4Q 09 1Q 10 75
significant improvements in unemployment and 0% 1Q 09 2Q 09 3Q 09 4Q 09 1Q 10 75
mortgage financing terms. AVERAGE�PRICE�PER�SQ�FT�/�CONDO Downtown East Side West Side Uptown
AVERAGE�PRICE�PER�SQ�FT�/�CONDO Downtown East Side West Side Uptown
$2,500
$2,500
CO-Op Market Matrix Current Qtr % Chg Prior Qtr % Chg Prior Year Qtr CO-Op apartMent Mix % of Total Median Price
$2,000
Average Sales Price $1,133,715 16.3%
$2,000 $975,049 -5% $1,193,144 Studio 15% $330,000
Average Price per Square Foot $908 -1.4%
$1,500 $921 -6.2% $968
Median Sales Price $685,000 $1,500
8.7% $630,000 16.6% $587,500 1 bedroom 40% $575,000
Number of Sales 1,111 $1,000
-12.1% 1,264 168.4% 414
$1,000 2 bedroom 32% $1,037,500
Days on Market (from Last List Date) 110 -27.2%
$500 151 -29% 155
3 bedroom 10% $2,175,000
Listing Discount (from Last List Price) 3.8% $500 18.3% 9.3%
Listing Inventory 3,809 24.1%$0 3,069
1Q 09 -20.8% 2Q 09 4,807 3Q 09 4+ bedroom 4Q 09 3% $5,650,000
1Q 10
$0 1Q 09 2Q 09 3Q 09 4Q 09 1Q 10
LISTING�DISCOUNT�VS��DAYS�ON�MARKET�/�CONDO
LISTING�DISCOUNT�VS��DAYS�ON�MARKET�/�CONDO
20% 350
prudentialelliman.com 20%
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16% Days On Market
350
300
16% Days On Market 300
3. $600,000
$400,000
$400,000 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
NEW�DEVELOPMENT�MARKET�SHARE��MEDIAN�SALES�PRICE
NEW�DEVELOPMENT�MARKET�SHARE��MEDIAN�SALES�PRICE
$2,000,000
New Developement
New Developement
Re-sale
Prudential douglas elliMan real estate MANhAttAN MArket overvIew
Re-sale
50%
1Q 10
$2,000,000 50%
$1,600,000 Median Sales Price 40%
CoNDo market
$1,600,000 Median Sales Price 40%
$908, 6.2%
$1,200,000
below the $968 price in the same 30%
is the largest category nearly every quarter, lost
period last
$1,200,000 year and down 1.4% from $921 in 30% share at the expense of the 3-bedroom and
the prior quarter. The volatility in these price
$800,000 20% 4-bedroom markets which nearly doubled.
indicators suggests a market trying to find a Number of condo re-sales jump as
$800,000 20%
$400,000 10% Price indicators showed mixed results The
“bottom”. Perhaps the most noticeable pattern days on market drops
$400,000
Market Share New Development (Units) 10%
Market Share New Development (Units) median sales price of a Manhattan condo was
in the first quarter was the shift in2Q 09
$0 median sales 3Q 09 0%
$0
1Q 09
Listing inventory fell sharply as number of sales
4Q 09 1Q 10
0% $1,065,000, 13.2% below the prior year quarter
price strength to1Q 09 3-bedroom and 09
2Q 4-bedroom 3Q 09 4Q 09 1Q 10
surged The number of units listed in inventory median sales price of $1,227,200, but 7% above
apartments which showed an 11.5% and 27.7% Downtown
AVERAGE�PRICE�PER�SQ�FT�/�CO�OP East Side West Side Uptown
jump respectively since the end of 2009 contrary fell 25.2% to 4,218 units from 5,638 in the same the prior quarter result of $995,000. Average
AVERAGE�PRICE�PER�SQ�FT�/�CO�OP Downtown East Side West Side Uptown
$1,400
$1,400
to their 36.5% and 37.1% declines from the same period last year, but 11.5% higher than 3,782 units sales price followed the same pattern falling 21.8%
$1,200
period last year.
$1,200 at the end of 2009. Listing inventory, excluding to $1,690,399 from $2,161,237 in the same period
$1,000 “shadow inventory” estimated to be 6,500 units, last year, but 3.6% above the prior quarter result
$1,000
Days on market and listing discount dropped
$800 is 33.8% higher than the 10-year average listing of $1,631,872. Price per square foot fell 18.3% to
sharply The average days on market in the first
$800
$600 inventory of 3,153 units. There were 1,273 sales $1,154 from $1,413 in the prior year quarter and fell
quarter declined significantly to 110 days from
$600 in the first quarter, 63% more than the 781 sales 2.8% from $1,187 in the prior quarter. The change
155 days in the prior year quarter and from 151
$400
days in the prior quarter. Listing discount also in the prior year quarter, which was a 5-year
$400 in median sales price by size showed declines
$200
posted a large1Qdecline in the first quarter as low and 5.3% more 09 the 1,209 sales in the
$200
1Q 09
09
2Q 09
2Q 09
3Q 09
3Q 09 4Q
than
4Q 09 1Q 10
1Q 10
in all size categories as compared to the prior
the spread between list price and sales price prior quarter. The monthly absorption rate—the
LISTING�DISCOUNT�VS��DAYS�ON�MARKET�/�CO�OP
year quarter with the largest declines in the 2, 3
LISTING�DISCOUNT�VS��DAYS�ON�MARKET�/�CO�OP
contracted. The average listing discount was number of months to sell out all listing inventory
20% 200
and 4-bedroom segments. With the exception
20%
3.8% in the first quarter, down from 9.3% in the excluding shadow inventory at the current pace 200 of studio units, which showed a 6.3% increase
16%
same period last year and down sharply from of sales—is Days On Market higher than the 7.9 month
16% 9.9 months, 175 from the prior quarter, all sizes also showed a
Days On Market 175
18.3% in the prior quarter. With an abundance average over the past 10 years. The studio150
12% and continued decline in the median sales price from
of over-priced listings, properties priced closer 1-bedroom market showed consistent market
12% 150 the prior quarter.
8% 125
to market levels are being absorbed faster and share in the first quarter compared to the prior
8% 125 Listing discount and days on market fell Days
for a modest discount which has helped reduce year quarter while the 2-bedroom market, which
4% Listing Discount 100 on market fell to 135 days from 178 days in the
days on market and listing discount.
4% Listing Discount 100
0% 1Q 09 2Q 09 3Q 09 4Q 09 1Q 10 75
prior year quarter and from 259 days in the prior
0% 1Q 09 2Q 09 3Q 09 4Q 09 1Q 10 75 quarter. The significant decline suggests the
AVERAGE�PRICE�PER�SQ�FT�/�CONDO Downtown East Side West Side Uptown prior quarter was an outlier and is consistent with
AVERAGE�PRICE�PER�SQ�FT�/�CONDO Downtown East Side West Side Uptown
$2,500 pricing for current listing inventory. Anecdotally
$2,500
there appears to be an unusually heavy volume
$2,000
$2,000 of over-priced listings entering the market which
$1,500 has caused properly-priced properties to “move
$1,500
to the front of the line” by selling more rapidly.
$1,000
$1,000 Re-sale shadow inventory—properties that were
$500 pulled from the market at this time last year
$500
by sellers who opted to wait until the market
$0 1Q 09 2Q 09 3Q 09 4Q 09 1Q 10
$0 1Q 09 2Q 09 3Q 09 4Q 09 1Q 10 improved—are re-entering the market. Listing
LISTING�DISCOUNT�VS��DAYS�ON�MARKET�/�CONDO discount, the spread between the list price at
LISTING�DISCOUNT�VS��DAYS�ON�MARKET�/�CONDO
20% 350 time of contract and the contract price, also fell
20% 350
sharply. The listing discount was 6.7% in the first
16% Days On Market 300
16% Days On Market 300 quarter down from 14.1% in the prior year quarter
12% 250 and down from 7.1% in the prior quarter.
12% 250
8% 200
8% 200
4% Listing Discount
150
4% Listing Discount
150
0% 1Q 09 2Q 09 3Q 09 4Q 09 1Q 10 100
0% 1Q 09 2Q 09 3Q 09 4Q 09 1Q 10 100
AVERAGE�PRICE�PER�SQ�FT�/�LUXURY AVERAGE�PRICE�PER�SQ�FT�/�LOFT
COndO Market Matrix
AVERAGE�PRICE�PER�SQ�FT�/�LUXURY Current Qtr % Chg
AVERAGE�PRICE�PER�SQ�FT�/�LOFT Prior Year Qtr
Prior Qtr % Chg COndO apartMent Mix % of Total Median Price
$3,500 $1,700
Average Sales Price
$3,500 $1,690,399 3.6%$1,700 $1,631,872 -21.8% $2,161,237 Studio 10% $485,000
$3,000
Average Price per Square Foot $1,154 $1,500
-2.8% $1,187 -18.3% $1,413
$3,000 $1,500
$2,500 $1,300 1 bedroom 32% $710,000
Median Sales Price $1,065,000 7% $995,000 -13.2% $1,227,200
$2,500 $1,300
Number of Sales
$2,000 1,273 5.3%
$1,100 1,209 63% 781 2 bedroom 39% $1,330,000
$2,000 $1,100
Days on Market (from Last List Date)
$1,500 135 -47.9% $900 259 -24.2% 178
$900
3 bedroom 13% $2,495,000
$1,500
Listing Discount (from Last List Price) 6.7% 7.1% 14.1%
$1,000 1Q 09 2Q 09 3Q 09 4Q 09 1Q 10 $700 1Q 09 2Q 09 3Q 09 4Q 09 1Q 10
$1,000 1Q 09
Listing Inventory 4,218 11.5% $700 3,7822Q 09
-25.2% 09 5,638 4+ bedroom 6% $5,650,000
2Q 09 3Q 09 4Q 09 1Q 10 1Q 09 3Q 4Q 09 1Q 10
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