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Manhattan
Market Overview
                                                                                                                   1Q 10
A Quarterly Survey of Manhattan Co-op and Condo Sales




Prepared by Miller Samuel Inc.
Appraisal and consulting services covering
the New York City metropolitan area



Number of sales doubled from a year                       Manhattan Market Matrix                            Current Qtr       % Chg       Prior Qtr          % Chg              Prior Year Qtr
ago as price indicators stabilized                        Average Sales Price                                $1,426,994        10.1%     $1,296,156           -21.8%                $1,825,847
                                                          Average Price per Square Foot                             $1,038       -1.2%         $1,051          -17.6%                   $1,259
Number of sales returned to normal levels,                Median Sales Price                                   $868,000           7.2%    $810,000              -11%                  $975,000
inventory jumped There were approximately                                     New Development                $1,160,000          3.1%    $1,125,000           -22.9%               $1,505,000
twice the number of sales in the first quarter of                                           Re-Sale            $830,000         11.4%     $745,000               23%                  $675,000
2010 as the same period a year ago, however,              Number of Sales                                            2,384       -3.6%           2,473         99.5%                     1,195
this is the first quarter-over-quarter decline in         Days on Market (from Last List Date)                        124      -39.1%              204        -26.9%                       170
the past year. The number of sales jumped 99.5%           Listing Discount (from Last List Price)                    5.4%                       12.8%                                    12.4%
to 2,384 sales in the first quarter from 1,195 sales      Listing Inventory                                          8,027      17.2%            6,851        -23.1%                    10,445
in the same period a year ago, but declined
3.6% from 2,473 sales in the prior quarter. The           QUARTERLY�AVERAGE�SALES�PRICE�/�MANHATTAN
number of sales over the last three quarters has          QUARTERLY�AVERAGE�SALES�PRICE�/�MANHATTAN
                                                          $2,000,000
been consistent with the 2,301 quarterly average          $2,000,000
                                                          $1,800,000
number of sales over the last decade. The first           $1,800,000
                                                          $1,600,000
quarter of 2009 saw the lowest level of sales             $1,600,000
                                                          $1,400,000
activity over the prior 15 years and was reflective       $1,400,000
                                                          $1,200,000
of the nearly “frozen” market conditions after the        $1,200,000
                                                          $1,000,000
Lehman Brothers bankruptcy in the autumn of               $1,000,000
                                                           $800,000
2008 and the onset of the credit crunch. The                $800,000
                                                            $600,000
rise in the number of sales over the past year              $600,000
                                                            $400,000
                                                                              99           00      01          02        03        04    05           06        07          08          09    10
reflected a release of “pent-up” demand resulting           $400,000
                                                                              99           00      01          02        03        04    05           06        07          08          09    10
                                                          NEW�DEVELOPMENT�MARKET�SHARE��MEDIAN�SALES�PRICE                                             New Developement             Re-sale
in a decline in the number of apartments available
                                                          NEW�DEVELOPMENT�MARKET�SHARE��MEDIAN�SALES�PRICE
                                                          $2,000,000                                                                                   New Developement             Re-sale 50%
for sale. Low mortgage rates, a surging stock                                                                                                                                             50%
                                                          $2,000,000
market, tax credits, and a new affordability from         $1,600,000                  Median Sales Price                                                                                  40%
a sharp decline in property values stimulated             $1,600,000                  Median Sales Price                                                                                  40%
                                                          $1,200,000                                                                                                                      30%
demand. There were 8,027 listings at the end
                                                          $1,200,000                                                                                                                      30%
of the first quarter, 23.1% below the 10,445               $800,000                                                                                                                       20%
listings in the same period last year, but 17.2%           $800,000                                                                                                                       20%
higher than the prior quarter total of 6,851. This         $400,000                                                                            Market Share New Development (Units)
                                                                                                                                                                                          10%
                                                           $400,000                                                                                                                       10%
excludes, however, an estimated 6,500 units of                                                                                                 Market Share New Development (Units)
                                                                                                                                                                                          0%
                                                                  $0               1Q 09                   2Q 09                3Q 09             4Q 09                 1Q 10
new development “shadow inventory”. Although                      $0               1Q 09                   2Q 09                3Q 09             4Q 09                 1Q 10             0%
inventory is at its second highest level of the past      AVERAGE�PRICE�PER�SQ�FT�/�CO�OP                                     Downtown        East Side         West Side              Uptown
decade, total inventory remains slightly above            AVERAGE�PRICE�PER�SQ�FT�/�CO�OP
                                                         median sales price of a Manhattan apartment Downtown quarter. Side priceWest Side
                                                         $1,400                                          prior       East This     indicator hasUptown
                                                                                                                                                  shown
the ten year average of 7,117 listings.                  was $868,000, 11% below the $975,000 median signs of stability since the second quarter of
                                                          $1,400
                                                         $1,200
Price indicators remained below prior year               sales price of the prior year quarter, but 7.2% 2009 as rising sales helped stem the decline of
                                                          $1,200
                                                         $1,000
quarter, showing near term stability The                 above the $810,000 median sales price of the property values that had peaked at $1,025,000
                                                          $1,000
                                                          $800
                                                           $800
                                             Visit our   website
                                                          $600
                                                           $600
                                                                   to browse listings and learn more about market trends                      prudentialelliman.com
                                                          $400
1Q 10 MANhAttAN MArket overvIew                       Prudential douglas elliMan real estate




                                                          Co-oP market
in the second quarter of 2008. The average sales                                                                             “bottom up” with first-time buyers providing a
price fell 21.8% to $1,426,994 from $1,825,847 in                                                                            large market share. While studio and 1-bedroom
the prior year quarter, but up 10.1% from the                                                                                apartments are considered the “entry-level”
prior quarter average sales price of $1,296,156.          Price indicators were mixed as                                     market, studios saw the most change in market
The increase in both price indicators from the            number of sales surged                                             share. Studios comprised 15% of all co-op sales
prior quarter was reflective of the sharp jump                                                                               in the first quarter compared to 26% in the
                                                          Record increase in number of sales from prior
in market share of 2-bedroom apartments and                                                                                  prior year quarter and 23% in the prior quarter.
decline in studio apartments. This shift was seen         year quarter There were 1,111 co-op sales in the
                                                            QUARTERLY�AVERAGE�SALES�PRICE�/�MANHATTAN
                                                          first quarter, a 168.4% surge from the 414 sales in
                                                            QUARTERLY�AVERAGE�SALES�PRICE�/�MANHATTAN                        The 1-bedroom market share remained largely
in the price per square foot metric which does               $2,000,000
                                                                                                                             stabilized at 40%, unchanged from the prior year
not generally see the same level of volatility from       the prior year quarter, which at that time was a
                                                             $2,000,000
                                                             $1,800,000
                                                             $1,800,000
                                                          16-year low. The number of sales fell 12.1% from                   quarter and down from 42% in the prior quarter.
unit mix swings as compared to the other price               $1,600,000
                                                             $1,600,000
                                                          1,264 sales in the prior quarter. The rise in the                  At the same time the higher end 3-bedroom
indicators. Price per square foot fell 17.6% to              $1,400,000
                                                             $1,400,000
                                                          number of sales over the past year contributed
                                                             $1,200,000                                                      market has seen roughly twice the 5.6% market
$1,038 in the first quarter from $1,259 in the same          $1,200,000
                                                          to$1,000,000 in listing inventory. At the end of the
                                                              a decline                                                      share average of the past five years. Market share
period last year and slipped 1.2% from $1,051 in             $1,000,000
                                                               $800,000
                                                          first quarter, 3,809 co-op apartments were listed                  has remained between 10% and 11% for the past
the prior quarter.                                             $800,000
                                                               $600,000
                                                          for $600,000 20.8% from the 4,807 apartments
                                                               sale, down                                                    three quarters.
Listing discount and days on market                            $400,000
contracted sharply Due to the surge in sales              listed in the prior year 00
                                                               $400,000     99       quarter,01 24.1% higher Price indicators mixed The median sales price
                                                                                                  but 02    03 04      05       06         07       08          09    10
                                                                            99       00         01    02    03 04      05       06         07       08          09    10
activity in the second half of 2009, sales in             than the 3,069 listings at the end of 2009. jumped 16.6% to $685,000 in the first quarter
                                                            NEW�DEVELOPMENT�MARKET�SHARE��MEDIAN�SALES�PRICE                     New Developement           Re-sale
                                                            NEW�DEVELOPMENT�MARKET�SHARE��MEDIAN�SALES�PRICE
the first quarter reflected more recently listed          Monthly absorption—the number of months it from the prior year quarter result of Re-sale 50%
                                                            $2,000,000
                                                                                                                                 New Developement
                                                                                                                                                             $587,500,
                                                            $2,000,000                                                                                              50%
properties. The average days on market fell               would take existing inventory to be sold at the which had been a 5-year low, and was up 8.7%
                                                            $1,600,000             Median Sales Price                                                               40%
to 124 days from 170 days in the prior year               current pace of sales—averaged 10.3 months in from $630,000 in the prior quarter. The other
                                                            $1,600,000             Median Sales Price                                                               40%
quarter and dropped from a recent high of 204             the first quarter, a significant improvement from price indicators showed declines from the prior
                                                            $1,200,000                                                                                              30%
                                                            $1,200,000                                                                                              30%
days in the prior quarter. Listing discount also          the 34.8-month absorption rate during the same year quarter. Average sales price slipped20%                5%
                                                              $800,000
contracted sharply as sellers were becoming               period last year. The co-op absorption rate has to $1,133,715 in the first quarter from $1,193,144
                                                              $800,000                                                                                              20%
more in sync with market conditions. The listing          averaged 8.9 months over the past decade. Price in the same period last year, but jumped 16.3%
                                                              $400,000                                                    Market Share New Development (Units)
                                                                                                                                                                    10%
                                                              $400,000                                                                                              10%
discount fell to 5.4% from 12.4% in the prior year        recovery over the past year had been from the from $975,049. Price per Development (Units)
                                                                                                                          Market Share New
                                                                                                                                            square foot settled at
                                                                     $0                                                                                             0%
quarter and from 12.8% in the prior quarter. One                     $0
                                                                                  1Q 09
                                                                                  1Q 09
                                                                                                      2Q 09
                                                                                                      2Q 09
                                                                                                                            3Q 09
                                                                                                                            3Q 09
                                                                                                                                                    4Q 09
                                                                                                                                                    4Q 09
                                                                                                                                                                           1Q 10
                                                                                                                                                                           1Q 10           0%
of the constants in market feedback has been
                                                          AVERAGE�PRICE�PER�SQ�FT�/�CO�OP                                 Downtown             East Side           West Side           Uptown
limited availability of re-sale listings despite the      AVERAGE�PRICE�PER�SQ�FT�/�CO�OP                                 Downtown             East Side           West Side           Uptown
                                                          $1,400
near-normalized level of inventory. Observations          $1,400
indicate that newly-listed, over-priced properties        $1,200
                                                          $1,200
help properly-priced properties to sell quicker           $1,000
                                                          $1,000
with less discounting. While property that was             $800
sold during the quarter was priced closer to               $800
                                                           $600
market value than typically seen over the past             $600
year, inventory that is still significantly over-          $400
                                                           $400
priced remains on the market.                              $200       1Q 09             2Q 09                                3Q 09                       4Q 09                     1Q 10
                                                           $200       1Q 09             2Q 09                                3Q 09                       4Q 09                     1Q 10
Is “normalized” sales activity of the second
                                                           LISTING�DISCOUNT�VS��DAYS�ON�MARKET�/�CO�OP
half of 2009 sustainable in 2010? The return               LISTING�DISCOUNT�VS��DAYS�ON�MARKET�/�CO�OP
                                                          20%                                                                                                                              200
to more normal levels of sales activity over the          20%                                                                                                                              200
past three quarters was fueled by low mortgage            16%                                                                                 Days On Market                               175
rates, improved confidence as a result of                 16%                                                                                 Days On Market                               175
                                                          12%                                                                                                                              150
significant gains in the stock market, and the first-     12%                                                                                                                              150
time buyer and existing homeowner tax credits.             8%                                                                                                                              125
There remains concern in 2010 over the potential           8%                                                                                                                              125
                                                           4%                                                                                                                              100
for rising mortgage rates, expiration of the tax           4%
                                                                     Listing Discount
                                                                                                                                                                                           100
                                                                     Listing Discount
credit and an economy that has not established             0%             1Q 09               2Q 09                      3Q 09                   4Q 09                    1Q 10            75
significant improvements in unemployment and               0%             1Q 09               2Q 09                      3Q 09                   4Q 09                    1Q 10            75
mortgage financing terms.                                  AVERAGE�PRICE�PER�SQ�FT�/�CONDO                                Downtown             East Side           West Side           Uptown
                                                           AVERAGE�PRICE�PER�SQ�FT�/�CONDO                                Downtown             East Side           West Side           Uptown
                                                           $2,500
                                                           $2,500
 CO-Op Market Matrix                       Current Qtr   % Chg            Prior Qtr       % Chg       Prior Year Qtr         CO-Op apartMent Mix % of Total Median Price
                                                          $2,000
 Average Sales Price                       $1,133,715    16.3%
                                                          $2,000          $975,049          -5%          $1,193,144                  Studio                         15%              $330,000
 Average Price per Square Foot                  $908      -1.4%
                                                           $1,500              $921        -6.2%                 $968
 Median Sales Price                         $685,000      $1,500
                                                          8.7%            $630,000         16.6%              $587,500               1 bedroom                      40%              $575,000

 Number of Sales                                1,111      $1,000
                                                         -12.1%               1,264       168.4%                  414
                                                           $1,000                                                                    2 bedroom                      32%            $1,037,500
 Days on Market (from Last List Date)             110    -27.2%
                                                             $500                 151      -29%                   155
                                                                                                                                     3 bedroom                      10%            $2,175,000
 Listing Discount (from Last List Price)         3.8%       $500              18.3%                              9.3%
 Listing Inventory                              3,809    24.1%$0              3,069
                                                                              1Q 09       -20.8%   2Q 09         4,807       3Q 09 4+   bedroom            4Q 09      3%           $5,650,000
                                                                                                                                                                                   1Q 10
                                                                $0            1Q 09                2Q 09                     3Q 09                         4Q 09                   1Q 10
                                                           LISTING�DISCOUNT�VS��DAYS�ON�MARKET�/�CONDO
                                                           LISTING�DISCOUNT�VS��DAYS�ON�MARKET�/�CONDO
                                                           20%                                                                                                                             350
prudentialelliman.com                                      20%
                                            Visit our website to browse listings and learn more about market trends
                                                           16%                                                                                    Days On Market
                                                                                                                                                                                           350
                                                                                                                                                                                           300
                                                           16%                                                                                    Days On Market                           300
$600,000
   $400,000
   $400,000       99        00         01            02        03          04      05           06            07          08           09        10
                  99        00         01            02        03          04      05           06            07          08           09        10
 NEW�DEVELOPMENT�MARKET�SHARE��MEDIAN�SALES�PRICE
 NEW�DEVELOPMENT�MARKET�SHARE��MEDIAN�SALES�PRICE
 $2,000,000
                                                           New Developement
                                                           New Developement
                                                                            Re-sale
                                               Prudential douglas elliMan real estate  MANhAttAN MArket overvIew
                                                                            Re-sale
                                                                                    50%
                                                                                                                                                                                                1Q 10
 $2,000,000                                                                         50%
 $1,600,000               Median Sales Price                                                                                                40%


                                                                       CoNDo market
 $1,600,000               Median Sales Price                                                                                                40%
$908, 6.2%
 $1,200,000
                below the $968 price in the same                                                                                            30%
                                                                                                                                                      is the largest category nearly every quarter, lost
period last
 $1,200,000     year and down 1.4% from $921 in                                                                                             30%       share at the expense of the 3-bedroom and
the prior quarter. The volatility in these price
    $800,000                                                                                                    20%                                   4-bedroom markets which nearly doubled.
indicators suggests a market trying to find a Number of condo re-sales jump as
    $800,000                                                                                                    20%
    $400,000                                                                                                    10%                                   Price indicators showed mixed results The
“bottom”. Perhaps the most noticeable pattern days on market drops
    $400,000
                                                                       Market Share New Development (Units)     10%
                                                                       Market Share New Development (Units)                                           median sales price of a Manhattan condo was
in the first quarter was the shift in2Q 09
          $0                            median sales 3Q 09                                                      0%
          $0
                        1Q 09
                                                       Listing inventory fell sharply as number of sales
                                                                           4Q 09                 1Q 10
                                                                                                                0%                                    $1,065,000, 13.2% below the prior year quarter
price strength to1Q 09     3-bedroom and 09
                                       2Q 4-bedroom   3Q 09                4Q 09                 1Q 10
                                                       surged The number of units listed in inventory                                                 median sales price of $1,227,200, but 7% above
apartments which showed an 11.5% and 27.7% Downtown
  AVERAGE�PRICE�PER�SQ�FT�/�CO�OP                                     East Side         West Side           Uptown
jump respectively since the end of 2009 contrary fell 25.2% to 4,218 units from 5,638 in the same                                                     the prior quarter result of $995,000. Average
  AVERAGE�PRICE�PER�SQ�FT�/�CO�OP                   Downtown          East Side         West Side           Uptown
 $1,400
 $1,400
to their 36.5% and 37.1% declines from the same        period last year, but 11.5% higher than 3,782 units                                            sales price followed the same pattern falling 21.8%
 $1,200
period last year.
 $1,200                                                at the end of 2009. Listing inventory, excluding                                               to $1,690,399 from $2,161,237 in the same period
 $1,000                                                “shadow inventory” estimated to be 6,500 units,                                                last year, but 3.6% above the prior quarter result
 $1,000
Days on market and listing discount dropped
   $800                                                is 33.8% higher than the 10-year average listing                                               of $1,631,872. Price per square foot fell 18.3% to
sharply The average days on market in the first
   $800
   $600                                                inventory of 3,153 units. There were 1,273 sales                                               $1,154 from $1,413 in the prior year quarter and fell
quarter declined significantly to 110 days from
   $600                                                in the first quarter, 63% more than the 781 sales                                              2.8% from $1,187 in the prior quarter. The change
155 days in the prior year quarter and from 151
   $400
days in the prior quarter. Listing discount also in the prior year quarter, which was a 5-year
   $400                                                                                                                                               in median sales price by size showed declines
   $200
posted a large1Qdecline in the first quarter as low and 5.3% more 09 the 1,209 sales in the
   $200
                    1Q 09
                       09
                                      2Q 09
                                      2Q 09
                                                       3Q 09
                                                       3Q 09                   4Q
                                                                                  than
                                                                               4Q 09                   1Q 10
                                                                                                       1Q 10
                                                                                                                                                      in all size categories as compared to the prior
the spread between list price and sales price prior quarter. The monthly absorption rate—the
  LISTING�DISCOUNT�VS��DAYS�ON�MARKET�/�CO�OP
                                                                                                                                                      year quarter with the largest declines in the 2, 3
  LISTING�DISCOUNT�VS��DAYS�ON�MARKET�/�CO�OP
contracted. The average listing discount was number of months to sell out all listing inventory
 20%                                                                                                            200
                                                                                                                                                      and 4-bedroom segments. With the exception
 20%
3.8% in the first quarter, down from 9.3% in the excluding shadow inventory at the current pace                 200                                   of studio units, which showed a 6.3% increase
 16%
same period last year and down sharply from of sales—is Days On Market higher than the 7.9 month
 16%                                                                9.9 months,                                 175                                   from the prior quarter, all sizes also showed a
                                                                    Days On Market                              175
18.3% in the prior quarter. With an abundance average over the past 10 years. The studio150
 12%                                                                                                             and                                  continued decline in the median sales price from
of over-priced listings, properties priced closer 1-bedroom market showed consistent market
 12%                                                                                                            150                                   the prior quarter.
  8%                                                                                                            125
to market levels are being absorbed faster and share in the first quarter compared to the prior
  8%                                                                                                            125                                   Listing discount and days on market fell Days
for a modest discount which has helped reduce year quarter while the 2-bedroom market, which
  4%      Listing Discount                                                                                      100                                   on market fell to 135 days from 178 days in the
days on market and listing discount.
  4%      Listing Discount                                                                                      100
 0%           1Q 09                   2Q 09                        3Q 09                  4Q 09                      1Q 10                  75
                                                                                                                                                      prior year quarter and from 259 days in the prior
 0%           1Q 09                   2Q 09                        3Q 09                  4Q 09                      1Q 10                  75        quarter. The significant decline suggests the
 AVERAGE�PRICE�PER�SQ�FT�/�CONDO                                    Downtown            East Side             West Side                Uptown         prior quarter was an outlier and is consistent with
 AVERAGE�PRICE�PER�SQ�FT�/�CONDO                                    Downtown            East Side             West Side                Uptown
 $2,500                                                                                                                                               pricing for current listing inventory. Anecdotally
 $2,500
                                                                                                                                                      there appears to be an unusually heavy volume
 $2,000
 $2,000                                                                                                                                               of over-priced listings entering the market which
 $1,500                                                                                                                                               has caused properly-priced properties to “move
 $1,500
                                                                                                                                                      to the front of the line” by selling more rapidly.
 $1,000
 $1,000                                                                                                                                               Re-sale shadow inventory—properties that were
  $500                                                                                                                                                pulled from the market at this time last year
  $500
                                                                                                                                                      by sellers who opted to wait until the market
      $0          1Q 09                     2Q 09                      3Q 09                        4Q 09                      1Q 10
      $0          1Q 09                     2Q 09                      3Q 09                        4Q 09                      1Q 10                  improved—are re-entering the market. Listing
 LISTING�DISCOUNT�VS��DAYS�ON�MARKET�/�CONDO                                                                                                          discount, the spread between the list price at
 LISTING�DISCOUNT�VS��DAYS�ON�MARKET�/�CONDO
 20%                                                                                                                                        350       time of contract and the contract price, also fell
 20%                                                                                                                                        350
                                                                                                                                                      sharply. The listing discount was 6.7% in the first
 16%                                                                                      Days On Market                                    300
 16%                                                                                      Days On Market                                    300       quarter down from 14.1% in the prior year quarter
 12%                                                                                                                                        250       and down from 7.1% in the prior quarter.
 12%                                                                                                                                        250
  8%                                                                                                                                        200
  8%                                                                                                                                        200
  4%                              Listing Discount
                                                                                                                                            150
  4%                              Listing Discount
                                                                                                                                            150
  0%          1Q 09                   2Q 09                        3Q 09                  4Q 09                      1Q 10                  100
  0%          1Q 09                   2Q 09                        3Q 09                  4Q 09                      1Q 10                  100



 AVERAGE�PRICE�PER�SQ�FT�/�LUXURY                                          AVERAGE�PRICE�PER�SQ�FT�/�LOFT
 COndO Market Matrix
 AVERAGE�PRICE�PER�SQ�FT�/�LUXURY Current Qtr                        % Chg
                                                                         AVERAGE�PRICE�PER�SQ�FT�/�LOFT Prior Year Qtr
                                                                                   Prior Qtr  % Chg                                                   COndO apartMent Mix % of Total Median Price
 $3,500                                                                   $1,700
 Average Sales Price
 $3,500                           $1,690,399                          3.6%$1,700 $1,631,872  -21.8%        $2,161,237                                      Studio                   10%         $485,000
 $3,000
 Average Price per Square Foot                         $1,154             $1,500
                                                                      -2.8%              $1,187             -18.3%                     $1,413
 $3,000                                                                   $1,500
 $2,500                                                                   $1,300                                                                           1 bedroom                32%         $710,000
 Median Sales Price                              $1,065,000              7%         $995,000                -13.2%              $1,227,200
 $2,500                                                                   $1,300
 Number of Sales
 $2,000                                                   1,273        5.3%
                                                                          $1,100           1,209              63%                           781            2 bedroom                39%       $1,330,000
 $2,000                                                                   $1,100
 Days on Market (from Last List Date)
 $1,500                                                    135       -47.9% $900             259            -24.2%                          178
                                                                            $900
                                                                                                                                                           3 bedroom                13%       $2,495,000
 $1,500
 Listing Discount (from Last List Price)                  6.7%                              7.1%                                        14.1%
 $1,000 1Q 09         2Q 09     3Q 09          4Q 09       1Q 10            $700    1Q 09    2Q 09    3Q 09                    4Q 09       1Q 10
 $1,000 1Q 09
 Listing Inventory                                        4,218      11.5% $700         3,7822Q 09
                                                                                                 -25.2% 09                              5,638              4+ bedroom                6%       $5,650,000
                      2Q 09     3Q 09          4Q 09       1Q 10                    1Q 09             3Q                       4Q 09       1Q 10




                                                          Visit our website to browse listings and learn more about market trends                                   prudentialelliman.com
4%                                                                       40%                                                                                                                    100
                        Listing Discount

                                                                                   30%
          0%                  1Q 09                          2Q 09                           3Q 09        4Q 09        1Q 10     75
        1Q 10 MANhAttAN MArket overvIew
                                     20%
                                                                                             Prudential douglas elliMan real estate
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               NEW�DEVELOPMENT�MARKET�SHARE��MEDIAN�SALES�P
          AVERAGE�PRICE�PER�SQ�FT�/�CONDO                                                        Downtown                       East Side                       West Side                          Uptown
                                                                                   10%                                                                                                                                                       $2,000,000


        LuxuRy market
         $2,500             Market Share New Development (Units)
                                                                                                     0.8% from $1,866 in the prior quarter. This                                                                                  luxury sales represent 10% of Sales Price
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Median
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  the overall market,
       $2,000
   3Q 09                         4Q 09                        1Q 10                0%                represents the fourth consecutive quarter that                                                                               luxury inventory represents 18.7%.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      $1,600,000

                                                                                                     price per square foot remained below $2,000
        Price indicators showed recent
 Downtown
         $1,500
                 East Side  West Side Uptown
                                                                                                     per square foot after being above that threshold
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Days on market and listing discount declined
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       $1,200,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Manhattan luxury properties averaged 193 days
        gains
         $1,000 as listing discount declined                                                         for the prior six quarters. The average size of a                                                                            on market in the first quarter, 40 days longer
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        $800,000
      Price indicators began to show gains Although
          $500                                                                                       luxury apartment was 2,951 square feet.                                                                                      than the 153 days in the prior year quarter, but
      all price indicators reflect consistent double-digit Listing inventory slipped from last year, recent                                                                                                                       47 days faster than the prior quarter. The first
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        $400,000
            $0         1Q 09               2Q 09               3Q 09          4Q 09              1Q 10
      declines from the same period last year, they increases lagged the overall market There                                                                                                                                     quarter results were 69 days longer than the
      have shown improvement since the beginning of were 1,502 apartments listed for sale in the first                                                                                                                                         $0
        LISTING�DISCOUNT�VS��DAYS�ON�MARKET�/�CONDO                                                                                                                                                                               overall market, the largest difference2Q 09 in the
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        1Q 09            seen                                                                                3
      2010. Median sales price fell 30.5% to $4,582,125 quarter, 6.7% below the 1,610 listings in the same
        20%                                                                                            350                                                                                                                        ten years this metric has been tracked and three
      from $6,595,000 in the same period last year, but period a year ago, but 8.5% more than the 1,384                                                                                                                           times the 18-day differential averaged over the
        16%                                                             Days On Market                 300
      jumped 21.2% from $3,780,000. This indicator had listings available at the end of 2009. Gains in
    3Q 09                4Q 09               1Q 10                                                                                                                                                                                same period. Luxury properties typically take
      remained below $4,000,000 throughout 2009. market-wide inventory were more than double
        12%                                                                                            250                                                                                                                        longer to sell than any other segment. Listing
      Average sales price followed the same pattern the rate of growth at 17.2%. Excluding shadow                                                                                                                                 discount fell to 3.6% from 7.8% in the prior year
         8%                                          200                                               200
      declining 28.9% to $5,550,494 from $7,801,442 inventory, monthly absorption rate was 19.2                                                                                                                                   quarter and from 4.3% in the prior quarter.
      in 4% prior On Market but Listing Discount 14.1% from months, nearly half the rate of the recent 40.3
          the Days quarter,         increased        175                                               150                                                                                                                        Note: This sub-category is the analysis of the top ten percent of all
      $4,863,673 in the prior quarter. Price per150
          0%
                                                      square month peak seen in the first quarter of 2009 and                                                                                                                     co-op and condo sales. The data is also contained within the co-op
                    1Q 09              2Q 09              3Q 09         4Q 09              1Q 10       100
      foot fell 28% to $1,881 in the first quarter from slightly higher than the 18.2 monthly absorption                                                                                                                          and condo markets presented.

      $2,612 in the prior year quarter and up a modest rate averaged over the prior decade. Although
                                                     125

                                                                                  100
          AVERAGE�PRICE�PER�SQ�FT�/�LUXURY                                                             Luxury Market Matrix
                                                                                                        AVERAGE�PRICE�PER�SQ�FT�/�LOFT                                                   Current Qtr                           % Chg                        Prior Qtr                          % Chg                   Prior Year Qtr
3Q 09     $3,500             4Q 09                          1Q 10                 75                   Average Sales Price
                                                                                                        $1,700                                                                            $5,550,494                            14.1%                     $4,863,673                          -28.9%                      $7,801,442
          $3,000                                                                                       Average Price per Square Foot
                                                                                                        $1,500                                                                                $1,881                             0.8%                               $1,866                        -28%                        $2,612
 Downtown                 East Side                West Side                 Uptown                    Median Sales Price                                                                 $4,582,125                            21.2%                     $3,780,000                           -30.5%                     $6,595,000
          $2,500                                                                                        $1,300
                                                                                                       Number of Sales                                                                           235                            -4.9%                                      247                  95.8%                             120
          $2,000                                                                                        $1,100
                                                                                                       Days on Market (from Last List Date)                                                      193                           -19.6%                                     240                    26.1%                            153
          $1,500                                                                                          $900
                                                                                                       Listing Discount (from Last List Price)                                                 3.6%                                                                    4.3%                                                     7.8%
          $1,000         1Q 09         2Q 09          3Q 09          4Q 09          1Q 10                 $700 1Q 09
                                                                                                       Listing Inventory    2Q 09     3Q 09                                             4Q 09  1,502
                                                                                                                                                                                                1Q 10                              8.5%                                1,384                      -6.7%                         1,610




        Loft market
                                                                                                     the prior year quarter, but up 6.2% from $1,056 in                                                                           in the prior quarter, less than the overall market
                                                                                                     the prior quarter.                                                                                                           growth of 17.2% over the same period.
                                                                                                     Number of sales surged as inventory dropped                                                                                  Listing discount and days on market declined
        Number of sales doubled as10prices
    3Q 09          4Q 09        1Q

                                                                                                     sharply There were 180 loft sales in the first                                                                               Loft properties took an average of 146 days to
        fell                                                                                         quarter, representing 11% of the overall market                                                                              sell, 12 days faster than the 158 days on market of
                                                                                   350
        Price indicator began to show stability The                                                  sales activity and consistent with the 10.5%                                                                                 the prior year quarter and 44 days faster than the
        median sales price of a Manhattan loft was
                      Days On Market                   300                                           market share for lofts over the past decade. The                                                                             190 days on market at the end of 2009. Listing
        $1,400,000, down 32.2% from $2,065,000 in                                                    first quarter number of sales were more than                                                                                 discount also contracted. The spread between
                                                       250
        the prior year quarter and unchanged from the                                                twice the 89 sales in the same period last year                                                                              the average last listing price set for a property
                                                       200
        prior quarter. The average sales price fell 21.5%                                            and down nominally from 182 sales in the prior                                                                               and the average contract price fell sharply to
        to $2,040,263 from $2,597,869 in the prior year                                              quarter. The elevated level of sales activity worked                                                                         3.3% from 8.9% during the same period a year
                                                       150
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  ago and down from 12.8% in the prior quarter.
        quarter, but increased 16.8% from $1,746,274 in                                              off inventory levels by 33.3% to 556 units in the
3Q 09                4Q 09               1Q 10         100                                                                                                                                                                        Note: This sub-category is the analysis of all co-op and condo loft
        the prior quarter. Price per square foot showed                                              first quarter from 834 units in the same period last
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  sales available. The data is also contained within the co-op and
        a similar trend, falling 15.4% to $1,121 from $1,325 in                                      year. Inventory increased 14.4% from 486 listings                                                                            condo markets presented.

          AVERAGE�PRICE�PER�SQ�FT�/�LOFT                                                               LOft Market Matrix                                                                  Current Qtr                        % Chg                         Prior Qtr                           % Chg                  Prior Year Qtr
          $1,700                                                                                       Average Sales Price                                                                 $2,040,263                          16.8%                       $1,746,274                            -21.5%                   $2,597,869
          $1,500                                                                                       Average Price per Square Foot                                                            $1,121                          6.2%                                $1,056                       -15.4%                       $1,325
                                                                                                       Median Sales Price                                                                  $1,400,000                             0%                      $1,400,000                            -32.2%                    $2,065,000
          $1,300
                                                                                                       Number of Sales                                                                            180                           -1.1%                                      182                  102.2%                             89
          $1,100
                                                                                                       Days on Market (from Last List Date)                                                        146                        -23.2%                                      190                      -7.6%                         158
            $900
                                                                                                       Listing Discount (from Last List Price)                                                   3.3%                                                                12.8%                                                      8.9%
            $700         1Q 09         2Q 09          3Q 09          4Q 09          1Q 10              Listing Inventory                                                                          556                           14.4%                                     486                    -33.3%                          834


        ©2010 Prudential Douglas Elliman and Miller Samuel Inc. All worldwide rights reserved.      eastsIDe 980 Madison Ave. 212.650.4800 • 575 Madison Ave. 212.891.7000 MIDtowN 425 East 58th St. 212.832.1666
        Prudential douglas elliMan                        Miller saMuel inc.                        205 East 42nd St. 212.692.6111 • 485 Madison Ave. 212.350.8500 westsIDe 1995 Broadway 212.362.9600 • 2142 Broadway
        real estate                                       real estate aPPraisers
                                                                                                    212.769.2004 • 2169 Frederick Douglass Blvd. 212.865.1100 DowNtowN 90 Hudson St. 212.965.6000 • 26 West 17 St.
        575 Madison Avenue                                21 west 38th Street
        New York, NY 10022                                New York, NY 10018                        212.645.4040 • 137 Waverly Pl. 212.206.2800 • 51 East 10 St. 212.995.5357 • 690 Washington St. 212.352.5252 BRookLyN 156
        212.891.7000                                      212.768.8100                              Montague St. 718.780.8100 • 189 Court St. 718.522.2929 • 299 Bedford Ave. 718.486.4400 • 154 Seventh Ave. 718.840.2000
        prudentialelliman.com                             millersamuel.com
                                                                                                    664 Fulton Street 718.780.8100 ReNtaL 485 Madison Ave. 212.350.8500 ReLoCatIoN 575 Madison Ave. 212.891.HOME
        For more information or electronic copies of this report please visit
        prudentialelliman.com/marketreports. Email report author Jonathan Miller                     ©2010. An Independently owned and operated member of the Prudential Real Estate Affiliates, Inc.           is a service mark of Prudential Insurance Company of America         Equal Housing Opportunity. All material presented herein is intended
        at jmiller@millersamuel.com with questions or comments.                                      for information purposes only. While this information is believed to be correct, it is represented subject to errors, omissions, changes or withdrawal without notice. All property outlines and square footage in property listings are approximate.

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Manhattan First Quarter 2010 Real Estate Market Report Report

  • 1. Manhattan Market Overview 1Q 10 A Quarterly Survey of Manhattan Co-op and Condo Sales Prepared by Miller Samuel Inc. Appraisal and consulting services covering the New York City metropolitan area Number of sales doubled from a year Manhattan Market Matrix Current Qtr % Chg Prior Qtr % Chg Prior Year Qtr ago as price indicators stabilized Average Sales Price $1,426,994 10.1% $1,296,156 -21.8% $1,825,847 Average Price per Square Foot $1,038 -1.2% $1,051 -17.6% $1,259 Number of sales returned to normal levels, Median Sales Price $868,000 7.2% $810,000 -11% $975,000 inventory jumped There were approximately New Development $1,160,000 3.1% $1,125,000 -22.9% $1,505,000 twice the number of sales in the first quarter of Re-Sale $830,000 11.4% $745,000 23% $675,000 2010 as the same period a year ago, however, Number of Sales 2,384 -3.6% 2,473 99.5% 1,195 this is the first quarter-over-quarter decline in Days on Market (from Last List Date) 124 -39.1% 204 -26.9% 170 the past year. The number of sales jumped 99.5% Listing Discount (from Last List Price) 5.4% 12.8% 12.4% to 2,384 sales in the first quarter from 1,195 sales Listing Inventory 8,027 17.2% 6,851 -23.1% 10,445 in the same period a year ago, but declined 3.6% from 2,473 sales in the prior quarter. The QUARTERLY�AVERAGE�SALES�PRICE�/�MANHATTAN number of sales over the last three quarters has QUARTERLY�AVERAGE�SALES�PRICE�/�MANHATTAN $2,000,000 been consistent with the 2,301 quarterly average $2,000,000 $1,800,000 number of sales over the last decade. The first $1,800,000 $1,600,000 quarter of 2009 saw the lowest level of sales $1,600,000 $1,400,000 activity over the prior 15 years and was reflective $1,400,000 $1,200,000 of the nearly “frozen” market conditions after the $1,200,000 $1,000,000 Lehman Brothers bankruptcy in the autumn of $1,000,000 $800,000 2008 and the onset of the credit crunch. The $800,000 $600,000 rise in the number of sales over the past year $600,000 $400,000 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 reflected a release of “pent-up” demand resulting $400,000 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 NEW�DEVELOPMENT�MARKET�SHARE��MEDIAN�SALES�PRICE New Developement Re-sale in a decline in the number of apartments available NEW�DEVELOPMENT�MARKET�SHARE��MEDIAN�SALES�PRICE $2,000,000 New Developement Re-sale 50% for sale. Low mortgage rates, a surging stock 50% $2,000,000 market, tax credits, and a new affordability from $1,600,000 Median Sales Price 40% a sharp decline in property values stimulated $1,600,000 Median Sales Price 40% $1,200,000 30% demand. There were 8,027 listings at the end $1,200,000 30% of the first quarter, 23.1% below the 10,445 $800,000 20% listings in the same period last year, but 17.2% $800,000 20% higher than the prior quarter total of 6,851. This $400,000 Market Share New Development (Units) 10% $400,000 10% excludes, however, an estimated 6,500 units of Market Share New Development (Units) 0% $0 1Q 09 2Q 09 3Q 09 4Q 09 1Q 10 new development “shadow inventory”. Although $0 1Q 09 2Q 09 3Q 09 4Q 09 1Q 10 0% inventory is at its second highest level of the past AVERAGE�PRICE�PER�SQ�FT�/�CO�OP Downtown East Side West Side Uptown decade, total inventory remains slightly above AVERAGE�PRICE�PER�SQ�FT�/�CO�OP median sales price of a Manhattan apartment Downtown quarter. Side priceWest Side $1,400 prior East This indicator hasUptown shown the ten year average of 7,117 listings. was $868,000, 11% below the $975,000 median signs of stability since the second quarter of $1,400 $1,200 Price indicators remained below prior year sales price of the prior year quarter, but 7.2% 2009 as rising sales helped stem the decline of $1,200 $1,000 quarter, showing near term stability The above the $810,000 median sales price of the property values that had peaked at $1,025,000 $1,000 $800 $800 Visit our website $600 $600 to browse listings and learn more about market trends prudentialelliman.com $400
  • 2. 1Q 10 MANhAttAN MArket overvIew  Prudential douglas elliMan real estate Co-oP market in the second quarter of 2008. The average sales “bottom up” with first-time buyers providing a price fell 21.8% to $1,426,994 from $1,825,847 in large market share. While studio and 1-bedroom the prior year quarter, but up 10.1% from the apartments are considered the “entry-level” prior quarter average sales price of $1,296,156. Price indicators were mixed as market, studios saw the most change in market The increase in both price indicators from the number of sales surged share. Studios comprised 15% of all co-op sales prior quarter was reflective of the sharp jump in the first quarter compared to 26% in the Record increase in number of sales from prior in market share of 2-bedroom apartments and prior year quarter and 23% in the prior quarter. decline in studio apartments. This shift was seen year quarter There were 1,111 co-op sales in the QUARTERLY�AVERAGE�SALES�PRICE�/�MANHATTAN first quarter, a 168.4% surge from the 414 sales in QUARTERLY�AVERAGE�SALES�PRICE�/�MANHATTAN The 1-bedroom market share remained largely in the price per square foot metric which does $2,000,000 stabilized at 40%, unchanged from the prior year not generally see the same level of volatility from the prior year quarter, which at that time was a $2,000,000 $1,800,000 $1,800,000 16-year low. The number of sales fell 12.1% from quarter and down from 42% in the prior quarter. unit mix swings as compared to the other price $1,600,000 $1,600,000 1,264 sales in the prior quarter. The rise in the At the same time the higher end 3-bedroom indicators. Price per square foot fell 17.6% to $1,400,000 $1,400,000 number of sales over the past year contributed $1,200,000 market has seen roughly twice the 5.6% market $1,038 in the first quarter from $1,259 in the same $1,200,000 to$1,000,000 in listing inventory. At the end of the a decline share average of the past five years. Market share period last year and slipped 1.2% from $1,051 in $1,000,000 $800,000 first quarter, 3,809 co-op apartments were listed has remained between 10% and 11% for the past the prior quarter. $800,000 $600,000 for $600,000 20.8% from the 4,807 apartments sale, down three quarters. Listing discount and days on market $400,000 contracted sharply Due to the surge in sales listed in the prior year 00 $400,000 99 quarter,01 24.1% higher Price indicators mixed The median sales price but 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 activity in the second half of 2009, sales in than the 3,069 listings at the end of 2009. jumped 16.6% to $685,000 in the first quarter NEW�DEVELOPMENT�MARKET�SHARE��MEDIAN�SALES�PRICE New Developement Re-sale NEW�DEVELOPMENT�MARKET�SHARE��MEDIAN�SALES�PRICE the first quarter reflected more recently listed Monthly absorption—the number of months it from the prior year quarter result of Re-sale 50% $2,000,000 New Developement $587,500, $2,000,000 50% properties. The average days on market fell would take existing inventory to be sold at the which had been a 5-year low, and was up 8.7% $1,600,000 Median Sales Price 40% to 124 days from 170 days in the prior year current pace of sales—averaged 10.3 months in from $630,000 in the prior quarter. The other $1,600,000 Median Sales Price 40% quarter and dropped from a recent high of 204 the first quarter, a significant improvement from price indicators showed declines from the prior $1,200,000 30% $1,200,000 30% days in the prior quarter. Listing discount also the 34.8-month absorption rate during the same year quarter. Average sales price slipped20% 5% $800,000 contracted sharply as sellers were becoming period last year. The co-op absorption rate has to $1,133,715 in the first quarter from $1,193,144 $800,000 20% more in sync with market conditions. The listing averaged 8.9 months over the past decade. Price in the same period last year, but jumped 16.3% $400,000 Market Share New Development (Units) 10% $400,000 10% discount fell to 5.4% from 12.4% in the prior year recovery over the past year had been from the from $975,049. Price per Development (Units) Market Share New square foot settled at $0 0% quarter and from 12.8% in the prior quarter. One $0 1Q 09 1Q 09 2Q 09 2Q 09 3Q 09 3Q 09 4Q 09 4Q 09 1Q 10 1Q 10 0% of the constants in market feedback has been AVERAGE�PRICE�PER�SQ�FT�/�CO�OP Downtown East Side West Side Uptown limited availability of re-sale listings despite the AVERAGE�PRICE�PER�SQ�FT�/�CO�OP Downtown East Side West Side Uptown $1,400 near-normalized level of inventory. Observations $1,400 indicate that newly-listed, over-priced properties $1,200 $1,200 help properly-priced properties to sell quicker $1,000 $1,000 with less discounting. While property that was $800 sold during the quarter was priced closer to $800 $600 market value than typically seen over the past $600 year, inventory that is still significantly over- $400 $400 priced remains on the market. $200 1Q 09 2Q 09 3Q 09 4Q 09 1Q 10 $200 1Q 09 2Q 09 3Q 09 4Q 09 1Q 10 Is “normalized” sales activity of the second LISTING�DISCOUNT�VS��DAYS�ON�MARKET�/�CO�OP half of 2009 sustainable in 2010? The return LISTING�DISCOUNT�VS��DAYS�ON�MARKET�/�CO�OP 20% 200 to more normal levels of sales activity over the 20% 200 past three quarters was fueled by low mortgage 16% Days On Market 175 rates, improved confidence as a result of 16% Days On Market 175 12% 150 significant gains in the stock market, and the first- 12% 150 time buyer and existing homeowner tax credits. 8% 125 There remains concern in 2010 over the potential 8% 125 4% 100 for rising mortgage rates, expiration of the tax 4% Listing Discount 100 Listing Discount credit and an economy that has not established 0% 1Q 09 2Q 09 3Q 09 4Q 09 1Q 10 75 significant improvements in unemployment and 0% 1Q 09 2Q 09 3Q 09 4Q 09 1Q 10 75 mortgage financing terms. AVERAGE�PRICE�PER�SQ�FT�/�CONDO Downtown East Side West Side Uptown AVERAGE�PRICE�PER�SQ�FT�/�CONDO Downtown East Side West Side Uptown $2,500 $2,500 CO-Op Market Matrix Current Qtr % Chg Prior Qtr % Chg Prior Year Qtr CO-Op apartMent Mix % of Total Median Price $2,000 Average Sales Price $1,133,715 16.3% $2,000 $975,049 -5% $1,193,144 Studio 15% $330,000 Average Price per Square Foot $908 -1.4% $1,500 $921 -6.2% $968 Median Sales Price $685,000 $1,500 8.7% $630,000 16.6% $587,500 1 bedroom 40% $575,000 Number of Sales 1,111 $1,000 -12.1% 1,264 168.4% 414 $1,000 2 bedroom 32% $1,037,500 Days on Market (from Last List Date) 110 -27.2% $500 151 -29% 155 3 bedroom 10% $2,175,000 Listing Discount (from Last List Price) 3.8% $500 18.3% 9.3% Listing Inventory 3,809 24.1%$0 3,069 1Q 09 -20.8% 2Q 09 4,807 3Q 09 4+ bedroom 4Q 09 3% $5,650,000 1Q 10 $0 1Q 09 2Q 09 3Q 09 4Q 09 1Q 10 LISTING�DISCOUNT�VS��DAYS�ON�MARKET�/�CONDO LISTING�DISCOUNT�VS��DAYS�ON�MARKET�/�CONDO 20% 350 prudentialelliman.com 20% Visit our website to browse listings and learn more about market trends 16% Days On Market 350 300 16% Days On Market 300
  • 3. $600,000 $400,000 $400,000 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 NEW�DEVELOPMENT�MARKET�SHARE��MEDIAN�SALES�PRICE NEW�DEVELOPMENT�MARKET�SHARE��MEDIAN�SALES�PRICE $2,000,000 New Developement New Developement Re-sale Prudential douglas elliMan real estate  MANhAttAN MArket overvIew Re-sale 50% 1Q 10 $2,000,000 50% $1,600,000 Median Sales Price 40% CoNDo market $1,600,000 Median Sales Price 40% $908, 6.2% $1,200,000 below the $968 price in the same 30% is the largest category nearly every quarter, lost period last $1,200,000 year and down 1.4% from $921 in 30% share at the expense of the 3-bedroom and the prior quarter. The volatility in these price $800,000 20% 4-bedroom markets which nearly doubled. indicators suggests a market trying to find a Number of condo re-sales jump as $800,000 20% $400,000 10% Price indicators showed mixed results The “bottom”. Perhaps the most noticeable pattern days on market drops $400,000 Market Share New Development (Units) 10% Market Share New Development (Units) median sales price of a Manhattan condo was in the first quarter was the shift in2Q 09 $0 median sales 3Q 09 0% $0 1Q 09 Listing inventory fell sharply as number of sales 4Q 09 1Q 10 0% $1,065,000, 13.2% below the prior year quarter price strength to1Q 09 3-bedroom and 09 2Q 4-bedroom 3Q 09 4Q 09 1Q 10 surged The number of units listed in inventory median sales price of $1,227,200, but 7% above apartments which showed an 11.5% and 27.7% Downtown AVERAGE�PRICE�PER�SQ�FT�/�CO�OP East Side West Side Uptown jump respectively since the end of 2009 contrary fell 25.2% to 4,218 units from 5,638 in the same the prior quarter result of $995,000. Average AVERAGE�PRICE�PER�SQ�FT�/�CO�OP Downtown East Side West Side Uptown $1,400 $1,400 to their 36.5% and 37.1% declines from the same period last year, but 11.5% higher than 3,782 units sales price followed the same pattern falling 21.8% $1,200 period last year. $1,200 at the end of 2009. Listing inventory, excluding to $1,690,399 from $2,161,237 in the same period $1,000 “shadow inventory” estimated to be 6,500 units, last year, but 3.6% above the prior quarter result $1,000 Days on market and listing discount dropped $800 is 33.8% higher than the 10-year average listing of $1,631,872. Price per square foot fell 18.3% to sharply The average days on market in the first $800 $600 inventory of 3,153 units. There were 1,273 sales $1,154 from $1,413 in the prior year quarter and fell quarter declined significantly to 110 days from $600 in the first quarter, 63% more than the 781 sales 2.8% from $1,187 in the prior quarter. The change 155 days in the prior year quarter and from 151 $400 days in the prior quarter. Listing discount also in the prior year quarter, which was a 5-year $400 in median sales price by size showed declines $200 posted a large1Qdecline in the first quarter as low and 5.3% more 09 the 1,209 sales in the $200 1Q 09 09 2Q 09 2Q 09 3Q 09 3Q 09 4Q than 4Q 09 1Q 10 1Q 10 in all size categories as compared to the prior the spread between list price and sales price prior quarter. The monthly absorption rate—the LISTING�DISCOUNT�VS��DAYS�ON�MARKET�/�CO�OP year quarter with the largest declines in the 2, 3 LISTING�DISCOUNT�VS��DAYS�ON�MARKET�/�CO�OP contracted. The average listing discount was number of months to sell out all listing inventory 20% 200 and 4-bedroom segments. With the exception 20% 3.8% in the first quarter, down from 9.3% in the excluding shadow inventory at the current pace 200 of studio units, which showed a 6.3% increase 16% same period last year and down sharply from of sales—is Days On Market higher than the 7.9 month 16% 9.9 months, 175 from the prior quarter, all sizes also showed a Days On Market 175 18.3% in the prior quarter. With an abundance average over the past 10 years. The studio150 12% and continued decline in the median sales price from of over-priced listings, properties priced closer 1-bedroom market showed consistent market 12% 150 the prior quarter. 8% 125 to market levels are being absorbed faster and share in the first quarter compared to the prior 8% 125 Listing discount and days on market fell Days for a modest discount which has helped reduce year quarter while the 2-bedroom market, which 4% Listing Discount 100 on market fell to 135 days from 178 days in the days on market and listing discount. 4% Listing Discount 100 0% 1Q 09 2Q 09 3Q 09 4Q 09 1Q 10 75 prior year quarter and from 259 days in the prior 0% 1Q 09 2Q 09 3Q 09 4Q 09 1Q 10 75 quarter. The significant decline suggests the AVERAGE�PRICE�PER�SQ�FT�/�CONDO Downtown East Side West Side Uptown prior quarter was an outlier and is consistent with AVERAGE�PRICE�PER�SQ�FT�/�CONDO Downtown East Side West Side Uptown $2,500 pricing for current listing inventory. Anecdotally $2,500 there appears to be an unusually heavy volume $2,000 $2,000 of over-priced listings entering the market which $1,500 has caused properly-priced properties to “move $1,500 to the front of the line” by selling more rapidly. $1,000 $1,000 Re-sale shadow inventory—properties that were $500 pulled from the market at this time last year $500 by sellers who opted to wait until the market $0 1Q 09 2Q 09 3Q 09 4Q 09 1Q 10 $0 1Q 09 2Q 09 3Q 09 4Q 09 1Q 10 improved—are re-entering the market. Listing LISTING�DISCOUNT�VS��DAYS�ON�MARKET�/�CONDO discount, the spread between the list price at LISTING�DISCOUNT�VS��DAYS�ON�MARKET�/�CONDO 20% 350 time of contract and the contract price, also fell 20% 350 sharply. The listing discount was 6.7% in the first 16% Days On Market 300 16% Days On Market 300 quarter down from 14.1% in the prior year quarter 12% 250 and down from 7.1% in the prior quarter. 12% 250 8% 200 8% 200 4% Listing Discount 150 4% Listing Discount 150 0% 1Q 09 2Q 09 3Q 09 4Q 09 1Q 10 100 0% 1Q 09 2Q 09 3Q 09 4Q 09 1Q 10 100 AVERAGE�PRICE�PER�SQ�FT�/�LUXURY AVERAGE�PRICE�PER�SQ�FT�/�LOFT COndO Market Matrix AVERAGE�PRICE�PER�SQ�FT�/�LUXURY Current Qtr % Chg AVERAGE�PRICE�PER�SQ�FT�/�LOFT Prior Year Qtr Prior Qtr % Chg COndO apartMent Mix % of Total Median Price $3,500 $1,700 Average Sales Price $3,500 $1,690,399 3.6%$1,700 $1,631,872 -21.8% $2,161,237 Studio 10% $485,000 $3,000 Average Price per Square Foot $1,154 $1,500 -2.8% $1,187 -18.3% $1,413 $3,000 $1,500 $2,500 $1,300 1 bedroom 32% $710,000 Median Sales Price $1,065,000 7% $995,000 -13.2% $1,227,200 $2,500 $1,300 Number of Sales $2,000 1,273 5.3% $1,100 1,209 63% 781 2 bedroom 39% $1,330,000 $2,000 $1,100 Days on Market (from Last List Date) $1,500 135 -47.9% $900 259 -24.2% 178 $900 3 bedroom 13% $2,495,000 $1,500 Listing Discount (from Last List Price) 6.7% 7.1% 14.1% $1,000 1Q 09 2Q 09 3Q 09 4Q 09 1Q 10 $700 1Q 09 2Q 09 3Q 09 4Q 09 1Q 10 $1,000 1Q 09 Listing Inventory 4,218 11.5% $700 3,7822Q 09 -25.2% 09 5,638 4+ bedroom 6% $5,650,000 2Q 09 3Q 09 4Q 09 1Q 10 1Q 09 3Q 4Q 09 1Q 10 Visit our website to browse listings and learn more about market trends prudentialelliman.com
  • 4. 4% 40% 100 Listing Discount 30% 0% 1Q 09 2Q 09 3Q 09 4Q 09 1Q 10 75 1Q 10 MANhAttAN MArket overvIew 20%  Prudential douglas elliMan real estate NEW�DEVELOPMENT�MARKET�SHARE��MEDIAN�SALES�P AVERAGE�PRICE�PER�SQ�FT�/�CONDO Downtown East Side West Side Uptown 10% $2,000,000 LuxuRy market $2,500 Market Share New Development (Units) 0.8% from $1,866 in the prior quarter. This luxury sales represent 10% of Sales Price Median the overall market, $2,000 3Q 09 4Q 09 1Q 10 0% represents the fourth consecutive quarter that luxury inventory represents 18.7%. $1,600,000 price per square foot remained below $2,000 Price indicators showed recent Downtown $1,500 East Side West Side Uptown per square foot after being above that threshold Days on market and listing discount declined $1,200,000 Manhattan luxury properties averaged 193 days gains $1,000 as listing discount declined for the prior six quarters. The average size of a on market in the first quarter, 40 days longer $800,000 Price indicators began to show gains Although $500 luxury apartment was 2,951 square feet. than the 153 days in the prior year quarter, but all price indicators reflect consistent double-digit Listing inventory slipped from last year, recent 47 days faster than the prior quarter. The first $400,000 $0 1Q 09 2Q 09 3Q 09 4Q 09 1Q 10 declines from the same period last year, they increases lagged the overall market There quarter results were 69 days longer than the have shown improvement since the beginning of were 1,502 apartments listed for sale in the first $0 LISTING�DISCOUNT�VS��DAYS�ON�MARKET�/�CONDO overall market, the largest difference2Q 09 in the 1Q 09 seen 3 2010. Median sales price fell 30.5% to $4,582,125 quarter, 6.7% below the 1,610 listings in the same 20% 350 ten years this metric has been tracked and three from $6,595,000 in the same period last year, but period a year ago, but 8.5% more than the 1,384 times the 18-day differential averaged over the 16% Days On Market 300 jumped 21.2% from $3,780,000. This indicator had listings available at the end of 2009. Gains in 3Q 09 4Q 09 1Q 10 same period. Luxury properties typically take remained below $4,000,000 throughout 2009. market-wide inventory were more than double 12% 250 longer to sell than any other segment. Listing Average sales price followed the same pattern the rate of growth at 17.2%. Excluding shadow discount fell to 3.6% from 7.8% in the prior year 8% 200 200 declining 28.9% to $5,550,494 from $7,801,442 inventory, monthly absorption rate was 19.2 quarter and from 4.3% in the prior quarter. in 4% prior On Market but Listing Discount 14.1% from months, nearly half the rate of the recent 40.3 the Days quarter, increased 175 150 Note: This sub-category is the analysis of the top ten percent of all $4,863,673 in the prior quarter. Price per150 0% square month peak seen in the first quarter of 2009 and co-op and condo sales. The data is also contained within the co-op 1Q 09 2Q 09 3Q 09 4Q 09 1Q 10 100 foot fell 28% to $1,881 in the first quarter from slightly higher than the 18.2 monthly absorption and condo markets presented. $2,612 in the prior year quarter and up a modest rate averaged over the prior decade. Although 125 100 AVERAGE�PRICE�PER�SQ�FT�/�LUXURY Luxury Market Matrix AVERAGE�PRICE�PER�SQ�FT�/�LOFT Current Qtr % Chg Prior Qtr % Chg Prior Year Qtr 3Q 09 $3,500 4Q 09 1Q 10 75 Average Sales Price $1,700 $5,550,494 14.1% $4,863,673 -28.9% $7,801,442 $3,000 Average Price per Square Foot $1,500 $1,881 0.8% $1,866 -28% $2,612 Downtown East Side West Side Uptown Median Sales Price $4,582,125 21.2% $3,780,000 -30.5% $6,595,000 $2,500 $1,300 Number of Sales 235 -4.9% 247 95.8% 120 $2,000 $1,100 Days on Market (from Last List Date) 193 -19.6% 240 26.1% 153 $1,500 $900 Listing Discount (from Last List Price) 3.6% 4.3% 7.8% $1,000 1Q 09 2Q 09 3Q 09 4Q 09 1Q 10 $700 1Q 09 Listing Inventory 2Q 09 3Q 09 4Q 09 1,502 1Q 10 8.5% 1,384 -6.7% 1,610 Loft market the prior year quarter, but up 6.2% from $1,056 in in the prior quarter, less than the overall market the prior quarter. growth of 17.2% over the same period. Number of sales surged as inventory dropped Listing discount and days on market declined Number of sales doubled as10prices 3Q 09 4Q 09 1Q sharply There were 180 loft sales in the first Loft properties took an average of 146 days to fell quarter, representing 11% of the overall market sell, 12 days faster than the 158 days on market of 350 Price indicator began to show stability The sales activity and consistent with the 10.5% the prior year quarter and 44 days faster than the median sales price of a Manhattan loft was Days On Market 300 market share for lofts over the past decade. The 190 days on market at the end of 2009. Listing $1,400,000, down 32.2% from $2,065,000 in first quarter number of sales were more than discount also contracted. The spread between 250 the prior year quarter and unchanged from the twice the 89 sales in the same period last year the average last listing price set for a property 200 prior quarter. The average sales price fell 21.5% and down nominally from 182 sales in the prior and the average contract price fell sharply to to $2,040,263 from $2,597,869 in the prior year quarter. The elevated level of sales activity worked 3.3% from 8.9% during the same period a year 150 ago and down from 12.8% in the prior quarter. quarter, but increased 16.8% from $1,746,274 in off inventory levels by 33.3% to 556 units in the 3Q 09 4Q 09 1Q 10 100 Note: This sub-category is the analysis of all co-op and condo loft the prior quarter. Price per square foot showed first quarter from 834 units in the same period last sales available. The data is also contained within the co-op and a similar trend, falling 15.4% to $1,121 from $1,325 in year. Inventory increased 14.4% from 486 listings condo markets presented. AVERAGE�PRICE�PER�SQ�FT�/�LOFT LOft Market Matrix Current Qtr % Chg Prior Qtr % Chg Prior Year Qtr $1,700 Average Sales Price $2,040,263 16.8% $1,746,274 -21.5% $2,597,869 $1,500 Average Price per Square Foot $1,121 6.2% $1,056 -15.4% $1,325 Median Sales Price $1,400,000 0% $1,400,000 -32.2% $2,065,000 $1,300 Number of Sales 180 -1.1% 182 102.2% 89 $1,100 Days on Market (from Last List Date) 146 -23.2% 190 -7.6% 158 $900 Listing Discount (from Last List Price) 3.3% 12.8% 8.9% $700 1Q 09 2Q 09 3Q 09 4Q 09 1Q 10 Listing Inventory 556 14.4% 486 -33.3% 834 ©2010 Prudential Douglas Elliman and Miller Samuel Inc. All worldwide rights reserved. eastsIDe 980 Madison Ave. 212.650.4800 • 575 Madison Ave. 212.891.7000 MIDtowN 425 East 58th St. 212.832.1666 Prudential douglas elliMan Miller saMuel inc. 205 East 42nd St. 212.692.6111 • 485 Madison Ave. 212.350.8500 westsIDe 1995 Broadway 212.362.9600 • 2142 Broadway real estate real estate aPPraisers 212.769.2004 • 2169 Frederick Douglass Blvd. 212.865.1100 DowNtowN 90 Hudson St. 212.965.6000 • 26 West 17 St. 575 Madison Avenue 21 west 38th Street New York, NY 10022 New York, NY 10018 212.645.4040 • 137 Waverly Pl. 212.206.2800 • 51 East 10 St. 212.995.5357 • 690 Washington St. 212.352.5252 BRookLyN 156 212.891.7000 212.768.8100 Montague St. 718.780.8100 • 189 Court St. 718.522.2929 • 299 Bedford Ave. 718.486.4400 • 154 Seventh Ave. 718.840.2000 prudentialelliman.com millersamuel.com 664 Fulton Street 718.780.8100 ReNtaL 485 Madison Ave. 212.350.8500 ReLoCatIoN 575 Madison Ave. 212.891.HOME For more information or electronic copies of this report please visit prudentialelliman.com/marketreports. Email report author Jonathan Miller ©2010. An Independently owned and operated member of the Prudential Real Estate Affiliates, Inc. is a service mark of Prudential Insurance Company of America Equal Housing Opportunity. All material presented herein is intended at jmiller@millersamuel.com with questions or comments. for information purposes only. While this information is believed to be correct, it is represented subject to errors, omissions, changes or withdrawal without notice. All property outlines and square footage in property listings are approximate.