Unlocking the Power of ChatGPT and AI in Testing - A Real-World Look, present...
Manhattan Second Quarter 2010 Real Estate Market Report
1. Manhattan
Market Overview
2Q 10
A Quarterly Survey of Manhattan Co-op and Condo Sales
Prepared by Miller Samuel Inc.
Appraisal and consulting services covering
the New York City metropolitan area
Number of sales up sharply as Manhattan Market Matrix Current Qtr % Chg Prior Qtr % Chg Prior Year Qtr
Average Sales Price $1,432,712 0.4% $1,426,994 9.1% $1,312,920
prices stabilized Average Price per Square Foot $1,051 1.2% $1,038 -0.5% $1,056
Price indicators continued to show stabilization Median Sales Price $899,000 3.6% $868,000 7.6% $835,700
The median sales price of a Manhattan apartment New Development $1,395,000 20.3% $1,160,000 30.5% $1,069,162
was $899,000 in the second quarter, up 7.6% Re-Sale $800,000 -3.6% $830,000 10.3% $725,000
from $835,700 in the same period a year ago Number of Sales 2,756 15.6% 2,384 79.9% 1,532
and up 3.6% from $868,000 in the prior quarter. Days on Market (from Last List Date) 105 -15.5% 124 -35.2% 162
Average sales price showed the same pattern, Listing Discount (from Last List Price) 9.1% 5.4% 7.8%
rising 9.1% to $1,432,712 in the second quarter from Listing Inventory 8,157 1.6% 8,027 -13% 9,378
$1,312,920 in the prior year quarter and up 0.4%
from $1,426,994 in the prior quarter. However, QUARTERLY�AVERAGE�SALES�PRICE�/�MANHATTAN
QUARTERLY�AVERAGE�SALES�PRICE�/�MANHATTAN
$2,000,000
price per square foot generally remained stable
$2,000,000
$1,800,000
over the year, slipping a nominal 0.5% to $1,051 $1,800,000
$1,600,000
per square foot in the second quarter from $1,600,000
$1,400,000
$1,056 per square foot in the prior year quarter, $1,400,000
$1,200,000
but rising 1.2% from $1,038 per square foot in the $1,200,000
$1,000,000
prior quarter. Price per square foot is a more $1,000,000
$800,000
reliable indicator of overall price trends in the $800,000
$600,000
second quarter due to the general increase in $600,000
$400,000
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
the size of apartments that sold. The average $400,000
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
NEW�DEVELOPMENT�MARKET�SHARE��MEDIAN�SALES�PRICE New Developement Re-sale
square footage of a Manhattan apartment that NEW�DEVELOPMENT�MARKET�SHARE��MEDIAN�SALES�PRICE New Developement Re-sale 50%
$2,000,000
sold in the second quarter was 1,364 square feet, $2,000,000 50%
up 9.7% from 1,243 square feet in the prior year $1,600,000 Median Sales Price 40%
Median Sales Price 40%
quarter. This trend corresponds to the increase in $1,600,000
$1,200,000 30%
the level of sales activity at the upper end of the $1,200,000 30%
market in 2010 compared to greater weighting of $800,000 20%
$800,000 20%
the entry-level market activity in 2009.
$400,000 10%
Market Share New Development (Units)
Number of sales continues to rise as inventory $400,000 Market Share New Development (Units)
10%
$0 0%
stabilized There were 2,756 sales in the second 2Q 09 3Q 09 4Q 09 1Q 10 2Q 10
0%
$0 2Q 09 3Q 09 4Q 09 1Q 10 2Q 10
quarter, up 79.9% from 1,532 sales in the prior year
AVERAGE�PRICE�PER�SQ�FT�/�CO�OP Downtown East Side West Side Uptown
quarter and up 15.6% from 2,384 sales in the prior AVERAGE�PRICE�PER�SQ�FT�/�CO�OP
$1,200 decades. NewSide
average over the past decade. The rise from Downtown East development sales accounted
West Side Uptown
quarter. The number of sales was the highest $1,200
the prior quarter reflects a seasonal increase, for 22.6% of total sales in the second quarter,
$1,000
since the second quarter of 2008 when there
consistent with the 10.2% uptick seen between down from 27% in the same period a year ago.
$1,000
were 3,081 sales and above the 2,411 quarterly $800
the first and second quarters over the past two Improvement in the upper end of the market is
$800
$600
$600
Visit our website
$400
$400
to browse listings and learn more about market trends prudentialelliman.com
$200
2. 2Q 10 MANhAttAN MArket overvIew Prudential douglas elliMan real estate
evidenced by the increase in market share of
3-bedroom sales to 18% from 12% in the same Co-oP market 35% in the prior year quarter. The 3-bedroom
12% market share is consistent with the prior year
period last year. Available listing inventory, which Price indicators stabilized as market share, but double the 5 year 6% average,
excludes “shadow inventory” was 8,157 in the indicating improved demand at the upper end
second quarter, 13% below the 9,378 listing total
number of sales rose of the co-op housing market. Listing inventory
of the prior year quarter, but up 1.6% from the Number of sales up sharply from prior year totaled 3,948 at the end of the quarter, 10.3%
QUARTERLY�AVERAGE�SALES�PRICE�/�MANHATTAN
prior quarter total of 8,027. “Shadow inventory”, quarter Co-op sales comprised 43.7% of below the 4,399 listings in the same period last
$2,000,000
QUARTERLY�AVERAGE�SALES�PRICE�/�MANHATTAN
apartments at or near completion but not formally apartment sales in the second quarter, below year, but 3.6% higher than the 3,809 listings in
$1,800,000
$2,000,000
listed for sale, is estimated at approximately 6,500 the 47.9% 5-year average. Co-op sale market the prior quarter. New development co-op listing
$1,600,000
$1,800,000
units. The total level of available inventory was in share averaged 54.5% and 57.8% over the past
$1,400,000 inventory, in the cond-op form of ownership
$1,600,000
sync with the 8,037 listing inventory average of 10$1,200,000 20 years respectively. There were
years and comprised only 1.6% of total inventory, as new
$1,400,000
the past five years. 1,203 co-op sales in the second quarter, 65.2%
$1,000,000
$1,200,000 development favors condominiums. The co-op
Days on market continues to fall, listing discount more than the 728 sales in the prior year quarter
$800,000
$1,000,000 monthly absorption rate is 9.8 months, nearly
rises The average days on market in the second and 8.3% more than the prior quarter total of
$600,000
$800,000 one month faster than the 10.5 month average
quarter was 105 days, down sharply from 162 days 1,111. The second quarter number of 02
$400,000
$600,000 99 00 01 sales was
03 over the 05 decade. 07
04 past 06 08 09 10
in the same period a year ago and down from 124 consistent
$400,000 with the 1,157 quarterly average
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06New Developement 08
07 Re-sale 10
09
NEW�DEVELOPMENT�MARKET�SHARE��MEDIAN�SALES�PRICE
days in the prior quarter. The reduction in days number of sales over the past five years. Studio Price indicators show stabilization The median
$2,000,000
NEW�DEVELOPMENT�MARKET�SHARE��MEDIAN�SALES�PRICE Re-sale 50%
and 1-bedroom market share fell to 56% in the sales price for a Manhattan co-op was $697,501 in
New Developement
on market is consistent with the rise in the pace $2,000,000 50%
of sales activity. Listing discount increased to second quarter, down from Price in the prior the second quarter, 7.5% higher than $649,000 in
$1,600,000 Median Sales
61% 40%
year quarter. The entry-level co-op market is
$1,600,000 Median Sales Price the prior year quarter and 1.8% above $685,000 40%
9.1% from 7.8% in the prior year quarter and up $1,200,000 30%
known as a key access point from the rental in the prior quarter. Average sales price for a
from 5.4% in the prior quarter. The rise in listing $1,200,000 30%
discount relative to the sharp decline seen in the market for first time buyers. This decrease in Manhattan co-op was $1,113,173 in the second
$800,000 20%
market share was offset by the 2-bedroom and
$800,000 quarter, 4.2% higher than $1,068,726 in the prior 20%
prior quarter suggests the prior quarter drop was $400,000 10%
an anomaly. The listing discount is consistent with 3-bedroom increase to 42% market share from year quarter,Market Share New Development (Units) in the
but 1.8% below $1,133,715
$400,000 10%
$0 Market Share New Development (Units) 0%
2Q 09 3Q 09 4Q 09 1Q 10 2Q 10
the rise in “re-sale” inventory that was pulled from
$0 0%
the market in early 2009, which was priced for the 2Q 09
AVERAGE�PRICE�PER�SQ�FT�/�CO�OP
3Q 09 4Q 09
Downtown
1Q 10
East Side West Side
2Q 10
Uptown
“pre-Lehman” market and re-listed in 2010. Since $1,200
AVERAGE�PRICE�PER�SQ�FT�/�CO�OP Downtown East Side West Side Uptown
this additional inventory was generally priced
$1,200
$1,000
above market levels, the buyer and seller had
$1,000
$800
further to travel between list price and contract
price to reach a “meeting of the minds”. $800
$600
The first half of 2010 was a significant $600
$400
improvement over 2009 Since the beginning $400
$200
of the year, sales activity has been significantly $0
$200 2Q 09 3Q 09 4Q 09 1Q 10 2Q 10
higher compared to the early quarters of 2009, $0 2Q 09 3Q 09 4Q 09 1Q 10 2Q 10
immediately following the Lehman Brothers LISTING�DISCOUNT�VS��DAYS�ON�MARKET�/�CO�OP
bankruptcy–the credit crunch tipping point of 20%
LISTING�DISCOUNT�VS��DAYS�ON�MARKET�/�CO�OP 200
September 15, 2008. The mortgage “net” cast 20% 200
16% 175
to borrowers remains smaller than it had been
16% 175
in recent years serving to temper the pace of 12% 150
recovery of the regional housing market. High 12% Days On Market 150
8% 125
unemployment levels, “shadow inventory” and Days On Market
8% 125
tight credit are challenges that continue to face 4% Listing Discount 100
the market, but general market conditions are 4% Listing Discount 100
0% 2Q 09 3Q 09 4Q 09 1Q 10 2Q 10 75
significantly improved over the same period a
0% 2Q 09 3Q 09 4Q 09 1Q 10 2Q 10 75
year ago. AVERAGE�PRICE�PER�SQ�FT�/�CONDO Downtown East Side West Side Uptown
$2,500
AVERAGE�PRICE�PER�SQ�FT�/�CONDO Downtown East Side West Side Uptown
$2,500
CO-Op Market Matrix Current Qtr %$2,000
Chg Prior Qtr % Chg Prior Year Qtr CO-Op apartMent Mix % of Total Median Price
Average Sales Price $1,113,173 -1.8%
$2,000 $1,133,715 4.2% $1,068,726 Studio 16% $380,000
$1,500
Average Price per Square Foot $943 3.9% $908 2.8% $917
Median Sales Price $697,501 $1,500
1.8% $685,000 7.5% $649,000 1 bedroom 40% $599,000
$1,000
Number of Sales 1,203 8.3%
$1,000
1,111 65.2% 728 2 bedroom 30% $1,100,000
$500
Days on Market (from Last List Date) 92 -16.4% 110 -34.8% 141
3 bedroom 12% $2,200,000
Listing Discount (from Last List Price) 7.3% $500 3.8% 8.7%
$0 2Q 09 3Q 09 4Q 09 1Q 10 2Q 10
Listing Inventory 3,948 3.6% 3,809 -10.3% 4,399 4+ bedroom 2% $4,400,000
$0 2Q 09 3Q 09 4Q 09 1Q 10 2Q 10
LISTING�DISCOUNT�VS��DAYS�ON�MARKET�/�CONDO
20%
LISTING�DISCOUNT�VS��DAYS�ON�MARKET�/�CONDO 350
prudentialelliman.com Visit our
20%
website to
16% browse listings and learn more about market trends 350
300
16% Days On Market
300
12% 250
3. $400,000
$600,000 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
$400,000
99 00 01 02 03 04
NEW�DEVELOPMENT�MARKET�SHARE��MEDIAN�SALES�PRICE 05 06New Developement 08
07 09
Re-sale 10
$2,000,000 Prudential douglas elliMan real estate MANhAttAN MArket overvIew
NEW�DEVELOPMENT�MARKET�SHARE��MEDIAN�SALES�PRICE New Developement Re-sale 50% 2Q 10
$2,000,000 Median Sales Price
50%
$1,600,000 40%
CoNDo market
$1,600,000 Median Sales Price 40%
$1,200,000 30% Price indicators show mixed results The
prior quarter. Price per square foot was $943 in
$1,200,000
$800,000
30%
20% median sales price of a Manhattan condo
the second quarter, 2.8% above $917 per square
apartment was $1,100,000, 10.1% higher than the
foot in the prior year quarter and 3.9% above the Price indicators mixed as number
$800,000 20%
10%
$400,000 Market Share New Development (Units) $999,000 median sales price in the prior year
$908 price per square foot of the prior quarter.
$400,000
$0
of sales jumped New Development 10
Market Share (Units)
10%
0% quarter and 3.3% higher than the $1,065,000
The East Side price per square 3Q 09 was the 4Q 09
2Q 09 foot 1Q 10 2Q
Number of sales 10 surged as listing inventory median sales price of the prior quarter. Average
highest of the four regions at $1,001 09 square 4Q 09
$0 2Q 09 3Q per 1Q 2Q 10 0%
sales price followed a similar pattern, rising
foot, essentially unchanged from $1,003 in the declined There were 1,553 sales in the second
AVERAGE�PRICE�PER�SQ�FT�/�CO�OP Downtown East Side West Side Uptown
$1,200
AVERAGE�PRICE�PER�SQ�FT�/�CO�OP quarter, 93.2% Side thanWest Side
East more the 804 sales in the 9.5% to $1,680,236 in the second quarter,
same period a year ago. Uptown jumped 24.9% Downtown Uptown
from $1,534,031 in the same period a year ago
to $653 per square foot from $523 per square prior year quarter and 22% more than the 1,273
$1,200
$1,000
and essentially unchanged from $1,690,399
foot, but was largely due to a shift in mix to larger sales in the prior quarter. The second quarter
$1,000
$800
in the prior quarter. The rise in both of these
apartments. Downtown averaged $910 per total was the highest since the second quarter
$800
$600 indicators is consistent with the 14.1% increase
square foot, 3.3% above the $881 per square foot 2008 total of 1,827. Condo sales accounted
$600
$400 in the average square footage of apartments
in the prior year quarter and the West Side was for 56.3% of all apartment sales in the second
$400 sold over the past year. The second quarter
6.1% higher at $946 per square foot from $892 in quarter, just above the 52.1% five-year quarterly
$200
average square footage of sold properties was
the same period a year ago.
$0
$200 2Q 09 3Q 09 average market share. There were 4,209 condo
4Q 09 1Q 10 2Q 10
1,482 square feet compared to 1,299 square feet
$0 listings available 1Q 10 sale, excluding 10
for “shadow
Days on market 09 2Q shortened as listing discount
3Q 09
LISTING�DISCOUNT�VS��DAYS�ON�MARKET�/�CO�OP
4Q 09 2Q
in the prior year quarter, reflecting the shift in
inventory”. The second quarter total was
slips Co-op sales averaged 92 days on market,
20% 200 mix toward larger unit sales in 2010 from entry-
LISTING�DISCOUNT�VS��DAYS�ON�MARKET�/�CO�OP
down sharply from 141 days in the prior year 15.5% below the 4,979 listing total of the prior
20% level units in 2009. Because of the trend toward
quarter and down from 110 days in the prior year quarter and essentially unchanged 175 from
200
16%
larger unit sales, average price per square foot
quarter. This is consistent with the rise in the
16% the prior quarter listing total of 4,218. This is
12%
175
150 showed a modest decline over the same period.
number of sales and decline in available listing consistent with the five-year quarterly average of 150 Average price per square foot was $1,134 in the
12%
inventory. Listing discount slipped to 7.3% from 4,207. Condos provided 51.6% of total available
Days On Market
8% 125
second quarter, down 4% from $1,181 in the prior
8.7% in the prior year quarter, but was up from apartment listing inventory, also consistent125 with
Days On Market
8%
4% Listing Discount 100 year quarter and down 1.7% from $1,154 in the
3.8% in the prior quarter. the 5-year 50.3% quarterly average.
4% Listing Discount 100 prior quarter.
0% 2Q 09 3Q 09 4Q 09 1Q 10 2Q 10 75
0% 2Q 09 3Q 09 4Q 09 1Q 10 2Q 10 75
Days on market fell sharply as listing discount
AVERAGE�PRICE�PER�SQ�FT�/�CONDO Downtown East Side West Side Uptown rose The average days on market was 115 days,
$2,500
AVERAGE�PRICE�PER�SQ�FT�/�CONDO Downtown East Side West Side Uptown more than 2 months faster than 181 days in the
$2,500
$2,000
same period last year and nearly 3 weeks faster
than the prior quarter average of 135 days. This
$2,000
$1,500 is consistent with the rise in number of sales
$1,500
$1,000
and decline in listing inventory over the same
period. Listing discount expanded over the
$1,000
$500 same period to 10.5% in the second quarter
$500
$0
from 7% in the prior year quarter and 6.7% in
2Q 09 3Q 09 4Q 09 1Q 10 2Q 10
the prior quarter. The rise in listing discount
$0 2Q 09 3Q 09 4Q 09 1Q 10 2Q 10
LISTING�DISCOUNT�VS��DAYS�ON�MARKET�/�CONDO reflects evidence that sellers are testing the
20%
LISTING�DISCOUNT�VS��DAYS�ON�MARKET�/�CONDO 350 market by setting prices higher but are meeting
20%
16% 350 resistance from buyers and therefore have to
300
“travel further” to have a “meeting of the minds”
16% 300
12% Days On Market 250 over the contract sales price.
12% Days On Market 250
8% 200
8% Listing Discount 200
4% 150
4% Listing Discount
0% 150
100
2Q 09 3Q 09 4Q 09 1Q 10 2Q 10
0% 2Q 09 3Q 09 4Q 09 1Q 10 2Q 10 100
AVERAGE�PRICE�PER�SQ�FT�/�LUXURY AVERAGE�PRICE�PER�SQ�FT�/�LOFT
COndO Market Matrix
AVERAGE�PRICE�PER�SQ�FT�/�LUXURY Current Qtr
$3,500 % ChgAVERAGE�PRICE�PER�SQ�FT�/�LOFT Prior Year Qtr
$1,700 Prior Qtr % Chg COndO apartMent Mix % of Total Median Price
Average Sales Price
$3,000
$3,500 $1,680,236 -0.6%
$1,500
$1,700 $1,690,399 9.5% $1,534,031 Studio 9% $444,000
Average Price per Square Foot
$3,000
$1,134 -1.7%
$1,300
$1,154 -4% $1,181
$2,500 $1,500 1 bedroom 31% $678,300
Median Sales Price $1,100,000 3.3% $1,065,000 10.1% $999,000
$2,000
$2,500 $1,100
$1,300
Number of Sales 1,553 22% 1,273 93.2% 804 2 bedroom 34% $1,350,000
$1,500
$2,000 $900
$1,100
Days on Market (from Last List Date) 115 -14.8% 135 -36.5% 181
$1,000 2Q 09 $700
$900
3 bedroom 22% $2,724,638
$1,500
Listing Discount (from Last List Price)
3Q 09 4Q 09 1Q 10 10.5%
2Q 10 2Q 096.7%3Q 09 4Q 09 1Q 10 7%
2Q 10
$1,000 2Q 09
Listing Inventory 4,209 -0.2% $700 4,2183Q 09
-15.5% 09 4,979 4+ bedroom 4% $5,850,000
3Q 09 4Q 09 1Q 10 2Q 10 2Q 09 4Q 1Q 10 2Q 10
Visit our website to browse listings and learn more about market trends prudentialelliman.com