1. Boeing World Air Cargo Forecast 2004 / 2005 SLIDES Questions? Please contact Tom Crabtree at +1 206 766 2576 Boeing Commercial Airplanes September 2004
2. Major Air Cargo Markets Rebounded Strongly During the First Half of 2004 Monthly percentage of change over prior year
3.
4. Yield Trends Reflect Both Productivity Gains and Industry Competition Yield Index (1985 = 1) Passenger Yield 1985-2003: -1.7% 1993-2003: -2.4% Freight Yield 1985-2003: -2.4% 1993-2003: -0.5%
5. Over 8% of World Air Cargo Traffic Moved by ACMI Providers RTKs, billions 17.9% average annual growth
6. International Express Traffic Growth Has Slowed RTKs, billions
7. World Air Cargo Traffic Will Triple Over the Next 20 Years History Forecast Average annual growth percentage 2003 to 2023 High 7.4% Base 6.2% Low 5.0% 6.1% growth per year RTKs, billions
8. Widebody Freighters Dominate the Future Fleet 2023 3,456 freighters 40% 31% 29% 2003 1,766 freighters 24% 56% 20% Standard-body (<50 tons) Medium widebody (40-65 tons) Large (>65 tons)
16. Forces and Constraints for Air Cargo Growth Trade quotas and restrictions Currency revaluation's Air and surface labor stoppages Renegotiated bilaterals Industry relocation Directional Imbalances Surface competition Airport curfews New commodities Widebody freighters, combis, and lower decks Airline market research Airline market and shipper education Shipper utilization Proliferation of points served "Just in time"" concepts Express market Deregulation Oil price and availability National development programs New trade relationships Export promotion World and regional GDP growth
17. Air Cargo Growth is Influenced by GDP Growth RTKs annual growth, percentage GDP annual growth, percentage
19. World GDP Growth Growth, annual percentage change for 2003 through 2023
20. World Air Freight Will Grow 6.3% Per Year Through 2023 History Forecast Average annual growth percentage 2003 to 2023 High 7.5% Base 6.3% Low 5.1% 6.2% growth per year RTKs, billions
21. World Airmail Will Grow 2.9% Per Year Through 2023 History Forecast Average annual growth percentage 2003 to 2023 High 3.3% Base 2.9% Low 2.4% 2.6% growth per year RTKs, billions
22. World Air Cargo (Freight and Mail) Will Grow 6.2% Per Year Through 2023 History Forecast Average annual growth percentage 2003 to 2023 High 7.4% Base 6.2% Low 5.0% 6.1% growth per year RTKs, billions
23. Share of World Market By Carrier Domicile U.S. 29.8% Non-U.S. 70.2% U.S. 23.4% Non-U.S. 76.6%
24. Domicile Share of International/Domestic Traffic International Domestic Non-U.S. 65.5% U.S. 16.4% Non U.S. 4.7% U.S. 13.4% International Domestic Non-U.S. 69.2% U.S. 14.5% U.S. 8.9% Non U.S. 7.4%
25. Asia Cargo Markets Will Continue to Lead the Industry … Growth, percentage World Average, 6.2%
26. … and Increase Their Share of World Cargo Share of world total market, RTKs percentage Europe-Asia North America-Europe Europe-Middle East Europe-Southwest Asia North America-Latin America Intra-Europe
31. Trucking Has Grown Steadily, While Air Cargo Traffic Growth Has Slowed Sources: IATA and American Trucking Associations U.S. domestic trucking traffic , million (tonnes) U.S. domestic air cargo traffic, million (tonnes) *Figures include for-hire and private carriage
33. Transborder Air Cargo Traffic Between U.S. and Canada is Projected to Grow 6.8% Percent Growth Over the Next 20 Years RTKs, billions 6.5% growth per year History Forecast Average annual growth percentage 2003 to 2023 High 8.5% Base 6.8% Low 5.1%
34. U.S. Domestic Market Will Maintain Steady Growth of 4.0% Over the Forecast Period RTKs, billions 2.7% growth per year Forecast History Average annual growth percentage 2003 to 2023 High 5.1% Base 4.0% Low 2.8%
35. Domestic Canada Air Cargo Market Will Grow 2.6% for the Forecast Period RTKs, billions 2.8% growth per year Forecast History Average annual growth percentage 2003 to 2023 High 3.2% Base 2.6% Low 2.0%
36. Trade With North America Is Distributed Unevenly Among Latin American Regions Tonnes, thousands
37. US – Latin America Air Trade Grew 36.9% In January Through June 2004 Compared With January Through June 2003 Monthly change in air cargo tonnage, year over year, percent
38. North America Trade With Latin America Can Be Classified Into Three Subregions 731,000 tonnes *Less than 1% each: Bolivia, Fr. Guiana, Guyana, Suriname 296,000 tonnes *Less than 1% each: Belize 92,000 tonnes *Less than 1% each: Anguilla, Antigua & Barbuda, British V.I., Cayman Islands, Dominica, Guadeloupe, Martinique, Montserrat, St. Lucia, St. Vincent & the Grenadines, Turks & Caicos Islands **Between 1 – 2% each: Aruba, Cuba, Grenada ***Between 2 – 3% each: Bahamas, Bermuda, Neth. Antilles, St. Kitts & Nevis Mexico 55% Nicaragua 4% Panama 6% * Costa Rica 16% El Salvador 5% Honduras 5% Guatemala 9% Dominican Republic 45% Haiti 7% Jamaica 12% Trinidad and Tobago 13% * Barbados 3% ** *** Brazil 22% Chile 22% Columbia 25% Ecuador 9% Peru 12% Uruguay 1% Venezuela 4% * Argentina 5%
39. Consumer Goods Dominate North America-Latin America Northbound Flows; Packages and Manufacturing Requirements Dominate Southbound 721,000 tonnes 399,000 tonnes
40. Trade Between Central America and North America Will Grow 6.3% per Year Tonnes, thousands 4.8% growth per year Forecast History 1.9% growth per year Average annual growth percentage 2003 to 2023 Northbound 6.5% Southbound 6.1%
41. Trade Between South America and North America Will Grow 6.0% per Year Tonnes, thousands 5.3% growth per year Forecast History -0.5% growth per year Average annual growth percentage 2003 to 2023 Northbound 6.2% Southbound 5.6%
42. Trade Between the Caribbean and North America Will Grow 2.1% per Year Tonnes, thousands -2.0% growth per year Forecast History Average annual growth percentage 2003 to 2023 Northbound 2.1% Southbound 2.1% 1.4% growth per year
43. Europe-USA Air Cargo Ended 2.5% on the Up Side After 2 Years of Decline Monthly change in air cargo tonnage year over year, percentage
44. Five Countries Account for 71% of Europe - North America Air Trade 2.5 million tonnes Switzerland, Ireland 4% each * ** * 1.5% each: Turkey, Austria * 1% or less each: Denmark, Finland, Norway, Portugal, Greece, Iceland
46. North American Air Imports Have Exceeded Air Exports to Europe Since 1996 Average annual growth percentage 1983-2003 Westbound 6.1% Eastbound 5.8%
47. The Top Five Commodity Groupings in Each Direction Account for 36 Percent of Directional Flows Europe – North America Eastbound 1,067,000 tonnes Westbound 1,428,000 tonnes
48. The North American Economy Will Continue to Expand Faster than the European Economy History Forecast Real GDP annual change, percentage
49. North American Air Exports to Europe Are Forecast to Grow 5.2% per Year History Forecast 2.6 % per Year Average annual growth percentage 2003 to 2023 High 6.2% Base 5.2% Low 4.2%
50. North American Air Imports from Europe Are Forecast to Grow 5.8% per Year History Forecast 6.4 % per Year Average annual growth percentage 2003 to 2023 High 6.9% Base 5.8% Low 4.7%
55. Truck Flights Augment Scheduled Airline Capacity Over 3316 weekly “air-truck” frequencies connecting 328 city pairs were offered in the intra-European market as of May 2003
56. Intra-European Air Cargo Traffic Will Average 5.3 Percent Growth Per Year RTKs, billions History Forecast High Base Low Average annual growth percentage 2003 - 2023 High 6.5% Base 5.3% Low 4.2% 4.2% growth per year
57. Europe is the Middle East’s Primary Air Trade Partner Estimate for 2003 1.77 million tonnes
58. Middle East Air Trade with Europe Has Grown 2.7% per Year Since 1993 Average annual growth percentage 1993 - 2003 Eastbound 1.5% Westbound 4.7%
59. Middle East Air Trade with North America Has Averaged 6.1% Growth per Year Since 1993 Average annual growth percentage 1993-2003 Middle East Imports 4.1 % Middle East Exports 9.4 %
60. The Four Leading Economies of the Middle East Account for 70 % of the Regional GDP * Countries representing 2% each include Jordan, Qatar, and Other $589 billion, 1996 U.S. dollars
61. The Middle East Economy is Poised to Expand 3.5% per Year Through 2023 History Forecast 3.0 % per Year 3.5 % per Year GDP, U.S. dollars in billions
62. Eastbound Europe-to-Middle East Air Trade Will Average 4.9% Growth per Year Through 2023 History Forecast 1.5 % per Year Average annual growth percentage 2003 to 2023 High 6.0% Base 4.9% Low 3.8% Tonnes, thousands
63. Westbound Middle East-to-Europe Air Trade Will Average 4.4% Growth per Year Through 2023 History Forecast 4.7 % per Year Average annual growth percentage 2003 to 2023 High 5.6% Base 4.4% Low 3.3% Tonnes, thousands
64. Europe is Africa’s Primary Air Trade Partner Estimate for 2003 1,101,000 tonnes
65. African Air Trade with Europe Has Grown 4.0 % per Year Since 1993 Average annual growth percentage 1993-2003 Exports 5.7% Imports 2.2% Tonnes, thousands
66. African Air Trade with North America Has Averaged 8% Growth per Year Since 1993 Average annual growth percentage 1993-2003 Exports 13.0 % Imports 5.2 % Tonnes, thousands
67. 75% of Africa's Regional GDP is Controlled by Ten Nations $682 billion (1996 U.S. Dollars) * * Countries representing 2% each include Cameroon, Cote D’Ivoire, Kenya, Reunion, and Sudan)
68. The African Economy is Expected to Expand Nearly 4.0% per Year Through 2023 History Forecast 3.2 % per Year 3.9 % per Year GDP, U.S. dollars in billions
69. Southbound Europe-to-Africa Air Trade Will Average 5.1% Growth per Year Through 2023 History Forecast 2.2 % per Year Average annual growth percentage 2003 to 2023 High 5.9% Base 5.1% Low 4.3% Tonnes, thousands
70. Northbound Africa-to-Europe Air Trade Will Average 5.3% Growth per Year Through 2023 History Forecast 5.7 % per Year Average annual growth percentage 2003 to 2023 High 6.6% Base 5.3% Low 3.9% Tonnes, thousands
71. U.S.–Asia Air Trade Grew 17.6% From January Through June 2004 Compared to January Through June 2003 Monthly change in air cargo tonnage year over year, percent
73. Japan and China Account for Over 50% of the Transpacific Air Cargo Market
74. North America – Asia Air Trade Remains Imbalanced Airborne trade, tonnes, millions Average annual growth percentage 1981 - 2003 Eastbound 8.8% Westbound 9.0%
75. Transpacific Trade Flow Directionality Is Affected by Exchange Rate Exchange rate index (1991 = 1) Eastbound share of total tonnes, %
77. Asia-to-North America Traffic Will Grow 7.2 Percent per Year Airborne trade, tonnes, millions History Forecast Average annual growth percentage 2003 to 2023 High 7.4% Base 7.2% Low 6.8% 7.7% growth per year High Base Low
78. North America-to-Asia Traffic Will Grow 7.3 Percent per Year Airborne trade, tonnes, millions History Forecast 5.1% growth per year Average annual growth percentage 2003 to 2023 High 9.0% Base 7.3% Low 5.6% High Base Low
79. Europe - Asia Air Cargo Traffic Has Grown Nearly 10% per Year Since 1983 9.8 % average annual growth Tonnes, millions
80. European Air Imports from Asia Have Driven Overall Market Growth Since 1996 Average annual growth percentage 1993 to 2003 Eastbound 5.1% Westbound 11.7% Tonnes, millions
81. Asia-Europe Eastbound Flows are More Diverse Than Westbound Flows Eastbound 1,157,000 tonnes Westbound 1,718,000 tonnes
82. Long-Term Asian Economic Growth Will Continue to Outpace that of Europe History Forecast Real GDP annual change, percentage
83. A Surge in Japanese Investment in Europe Has Bolstered Overall Regional Traffic Japanese Investment Inflows, US dollars in billions
84. Eastbound Europe-to-Asia Air Trade Will Average 6.8% Growth per Year Through 2023 History Forecast 5.1 % per Year Average annual growth percentage 2003 to 2023 High 7.7% Base 6.8% Low 5.6% Tonnes, millions High Base Low
85. Westbound Asia-to-Europe Air Trade Will Average 6.7% Per Year Through 2023 History Forecast 11.7 % per Year Average annual growth percentage 2003 to 2023 High 8.4% Base 6.7% Low 5.0% Tonnes, millions High Base Low
86. Intra-Asian Air Cargo Growth Is Resilient 11.0% Average Annual Growth Tonnes, millions
87. The Top 10 Country Pairs Constitutes One-Half of the Intra-Asia Market Top country pairs for intraregional air cargo traffic
88. China Will Bolster Overall Asian Economic Growth History Forecast Real GDP Annual Change, Percentage
89. Asian Economic Power Distribution Is Shifting 2003 2023 *Thailand, Hong Kong, Macau, Singapore, Malaysia, Philippines, and New Zealand Share of regional GDP
91. Intra-Asia Air Cargo Market Will Grow at 8.5% Over the Next 20 Years History Forecast Average annual growth percentage 2003 to 2023 High 10.0% Base 8.5% Low 6.9% Tonnes, millions
92. Europe is Southwest Asia's Primary Air Trade Partner Estimate for 2003 1.34 million tonnes
93. Southwest Asian Air Trade with Europe Has Grown 6.9 Percent per Year Since 1993 Average annual growth percentage 1993-2003 Westbound 6.7% Eastbound 7.5% Tonnes, thousands
94. Growth in Southwest Asian Air Trade with North America Has Averaged 6.2 Percent per Year Average annual growth percentage 1993-2003 Imports 11.5% Exports 5.2% Tonnes, thousands
95. India and Pakistan Account for 90% of the Region's Economic Activity $712 billion (1996 U.S. Dollars)
96. Southwest Asia's Economy Will Grow Nearly 5% per Year Through 2023 History Forecast GDP, U.S. dollars in trillions 4.9% growth per year 5.7% growth per year
97. Worldwide Foreign Direct Investment in Southwest Asia Has Rebounded Investment inflows, US dollars in billions
98. Eastbound Europe-to-Southwest Asia Air Trade Will Average 6.8 Percent Growth per Year Through 2023 History Forecast Average annual growth percentage 2003 to 2023 High 7.6% Base 6.8% Low 5.9% Tonnes, thousands 7.5% growth per year
99. Westbound Southwest Asia-to-Europe Air Trade Will Average 6.1 Percent Growth per Year Through 2023 History Forecast Average annual growth percentage 2003 to 2023 High 7.8% Base 6.1% Low 4.5% 6.7% growth per year Tonnes, thousands
100. International Traffic Volume on CIS-based Carriers is More Than Double Domestic Traffic RTKs, billions Domestic International
102. Europe and Asia Predominated International Traffic for Russian-Domiciled Carriers in Year 2003 Russian carrier traffic includes transit, charter, and foreign military support 341,000 tonnes
103. Russia, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and the Ukraine Lead Overall CIS Air Trade with Europe 138,000 tonnes * 2% or less: Moldova, Belarus, Armenia, Georgia, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan
104. CIS Air Imports from Europe Will Triple Over the Next 20 Years Average annual growth percentage 2003 - 2023 High 6.7 % Base 5.9 % Low 5.1 % Tonnes, thousands History Forecast High Base Low 4.4 % growth per year
105. CIS Air Exports to Europe Will Expand Quickly From A Small Base Tonnes, thousands History Forecast High Base Low Average annual growth percentage 2003 - 2023 High 11.4 % Base 7.9 % Low 4.4 % 15.3% growth per year
106. Domestic China Air Cargo Traffic Totals More Than 1.6 Million Tonnes Annually Tonnes of freight and mail, millions
107. Domestic China Air Cargo Traffic Has Grown 21.3% per year Since 1991 RTKs, billions
108. These top ten city pairs accounted for approximately 552 thousand tonnes, or 34% of domestic air cargo traffic in 2003 Current China Domestic Air Cargo Traffic is Concentrated on Coastal and Southern Trade Lanes Top city pairs for domestic air cargo traffic
109. History Forecast China’s GDP is Expected to Triple GDP, U.S. dollars in billions 8.7% growth per year 5.8% growth per year
110. Domestic China Air Cargo is Forecasted to Grow 10.6% per Year for the Next Two Decades Tonnes, millions History Forecast Average annual growth percentage 2003 - 2023 High 11.6% Base 10.6% Low 9.5% 19.5% growth per year High Base Low
111. Widebody Freighters Dominate the Future Fleet 2023 3,456 freighters 40% 31% 29% 2003 1,766 freighters 24% 56% 20% Standard-body (<50 tons) Medium widebody (40-65 tons) Large (>65 tons)
112. Freighter Fleet Is Grouped Into Size Categories BAe-146 707-320C DC-9* DC-8* 737* 757-200 727* MD-80/-90 A320* Standard-body (less than 50 tonnes) Medium widebody (40 to 65 tonnes) Large (more than 65 tonnes) DC-10-30/40 MD-11 747* 777* A340* A380* 767* A300* A310* A330* L-1011 DC-10-10 * Represents a series
113. Freighter Fleet Forecast Methodology World Air Cargo Forecast Projected traffic Current Market Outlook Passenger/combi airplane forecast Freighter airplane requirement Minus Equals Total cargo Demand Lower-hold lift Supply Needed freighter lift Supply – =
114. Widebody Freighters Represent Over 90% of Future Fleet Capacity 2023 478 billion ATKs 18% 8% 74% 2003 168 billion ATKs 13% 14% 73% Standard-body (<50 tons) Medium widebody (40-65 tons) Large (>65 tons)
115. Freighter Conversions Comprise 75% of Fleet Additions Freighter aircraft, units Fleet additions, 2,950 units Current/retained fleet Conversion market New freighters
116. Future Freighter Delivery Source Depends on Size Category 1,184 converted 436 new 492 converted 550 converted 236 new 52 new Large 928 total Medium Widebody 786 Total Standard-body 1,236 total Total 2,950 Units (2,226 Converted, 724 New) Standard-body (<50 tons) Medium widebody (40-65 tons) Large (>65 tons)
117. North America Will Account for More Than Half of 2004-2023 Freighter Deliveries * Includes Southwest Asia
Editor's Notes
Ladies and Gentlemen, good afternoon. Thank you for allowing me to brief you on the findings of our newly updated “ Boeing World Air Cargo Forecast (or WACF) !” As many of you know, we’ve been at this a long time - some 27 years. Consequently, our forecast document has become the industry standard for reliable air cargo market data and analysis. The Boeing Company issues the biennial World Air Cargo Forecast (WACF) to provide a comprehensive up-to-date overview of the air cargo industry, in terms of both air cargo traffic by major regional markets and the requirement for freighter aircraft over the next two decades. Today, I’d like to talk briefly about the tremendous growth and progress we’ve seen in the air cargo industry up till now. Then I’ll describe where we envision that industry will be 20 years from now. In short, the future is bright! A strongly resurgent world air cargo industry characterizes the market for this 2004/2005 edition of the World Air Cargo Forecast. Traffic as surged during the first half of 2004 relative to 2003, when concern over the Iraq War and the SARS crisis in Asia curbed industry growth. If the current momentum of world air cargo traffic growth is maintained through the end of 2004, it will mark the first double-digit percentage growth year for the industry since 1997.
