The document discusses futures wheels, a method for policy analysis and forecasting invented in 1971 by Jerome Glenn. Futures wheels involve imagining the primary and secondary impacts of a potential change over multiple orders to uncover surprises. The document provides instructions for conducting a futures wheel exercise by first brainstorming individual impacts, then discussing as a group to identify primary impacts, and mapping secondary impacts stemming from each primary impact. An example futures wheel is shown mapping impacts of "earbud" headphones becoming the dominant interface for computers, including possible impacts on work environments, communications, and industries.

1. FUTURISTS
start simple and let complexity evolve.

2. N O T AT A L L W H AT I ( O R A N Y R E P U TA B L E F U T U R I S T S ) D O

3. FUTURES WHEELS
O N E PA RT O F W H AT I ( A N D O T H E R R E P U TA B L E F U T U R I S T S ) D O

4. FUTURES
WHEELS:
ORIGINS
Jerome Glenn
Invented futures wheels in 1971 as a method for
policy analysis and forecasting
Also called Implementation Wheel, Impact Wheel,
Mind Mapping, and Webbing.
Joel Barker
“Cascade thinking:” go out at least three orders
of implications to find big surprises
http://www.strategicexploration.com/i-wheel/
index.htm

5. Futures Wheels: Instructions

6. Futures Wheels: Instructions
 Enter your assigned change in the inner circle of your
worksheet.

7. Futures Wheels: Instructions
 Enter your assigned change in the inner circle of your
worksheet.
 Everyone take five minutes by themselves to imagine possible
impacts of this change over the next twenty years.

8. Futures Wheels: Instructions
 Enter your assigned change in the inner circle of your
worksheet.
 Everyone take five minutes by themselves to imagine possible
impacts of this change over the next twenty years.
 Share your individual lists within your group. Which of these
are immediate, or primary, impacts? Write those down next to
the appropriate “spoke”.

9. Futures Wheels: Instructions
 Enter your assigned change in the inner circle of your
worksheet.
 Everyone take five minutes by themselves to imagine possible
impacts of this change over the next twenty years.
 Share your individual lists within your group. Which of these
are immediate, or primary, impacts? Write those down next to
the appropriate “spoke”.
 Now consider each primary impact, one by one. Brainstorm
two or three impacts it will have, and map those, connecting
each to its primary impact.

10. office
“earbud” headphones silent, eye-tracking
sound
to talk to/hear menu navigation
barriers
computer goggles developed
work noisier
work?
travel? economy?
primary effects
home/ voice input / output,
education?
families? biometric passwords
impact communications? hobbies?
environment?
impact
secondary impact
effects
Futures Wheel

11. voice input / output,
work noisier
biometric passwords
no passwords market for “great New licensing opp’ty
required drop in carpal tunnel voices” for popular singers
syndrome and actors
Increase in pirate market:
worker great voices
collapse of
productivity
keyboard wristRather talk to “napsterized”
decline in worker
compensation rest market your machine
costs than you…
Futures Wheel

12. Dr. Wendy L. Schultz
Infinite Futures:
foresight research and training
Oxford, England
http:// www.infinitefutures.com
THANK YOU.