1. Energy Futures for You
- long term strategic planning
16th May 2012

2. fundamentally…
2

3. Shaping your operating context
Big
Picture Drivers Results
trends
3

4. resources technology
climate
significant trends for WECC
new ways of organisational
working transparency sustainability 4

5. all of this growth & regional
Population
is against a backdrop of,
and often driven by…
variances
population growth & urbanisation
5

6. resource scarcity
6

7. Since 2000 commodity prices have
more than doubled
Source: McKinsey Global Institute
7

8. With oil prices rising nearly 5 fold,
hiding huge fluctuations, and expected to keep
rising… IMF “The Future of Oil” May 2012
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2012/wp12109.pdf
8

9. climate science is stark
but politics bumpy
9

10. climate change…good news…
“It is possible to restrict warming to 2C
or less during the 21st century with at
least 50% probability…...
Informing Choices, 2009, UK Met Office
emphasis added
10

11. climate change…bad news…
“It is possible to restrict warming to 2C
or less during the 21st century with at
least 50% probability…...
…with emissions reductions of 5% per
year but peak emissions would have to
happen by about 2020”
Informing Choices, 2009, UK Met Office
emphasis added
11

12. negligible progress on international
agreements... but significant pressures
from national and regional targets
EU: 20% reduction in China: 40-45%
carbon dioxide by reduction in carbon
2020 (30% if there’s intensity by 2020
global agreement), 20%
renewables by 2020
India: 24% voluntary US: $80bn green
intensity target by stimulus, and maybe
2020 a 17% reduction in
2020 (but on 2005 levels)
12

13. and our infrastructure
needs to be resilient
13

14. deeper relationships and
new investment models
14

15. Progressive investors…small steps into
future proofing and two-tier property market…
Bridges Ventures Sustainable Property Fund
£50m – acquire and renovate older
buildings to high environmental standards
Climate Change Capital
£70m fund and growing – commercial
property with emphasis on retrofitting
in UK cities
15

16. technology
and information
16

17. ubiquity of ICT and a networked world
17

18. transparency…
nowhere to hide
18

19. top down…
Companies representing 54% total value of
world’s equity markets report climate impact
data through the Carbon Disclosure Project.
CRC EES league table of all organisations
with an energy bill greater than ~ £500k
19

20. and bottom up…
20

21. rise of organisational sustainability
21

22. Hampshire County Council
• 70% energy reduction
• 70% more staff
• 30% less space required
22

23. Implications
23

24. Sorting out direct impacts is now
basic hygiene
Compliance should not be enough for leaders and
forward looking organisations
Disclosure and assurance will place increasing
importance upon responsible management
…and in a continuing tough economic climate,
eco-efficiency will become even more important
24

25. some cultural challenges…
Joined up thinking - more effective & meaningful
engagement across organisations,
alignment of sustainability with planning cycles,
closer working between departments and functions
Re-examination of points of engagement with suppliers,
eg. landlord & tenant, FM & designers
Increase capacity through more holistic approach to
training provided to property, FM and energy professions
25

26. some economic…
Valuing sustainability… linkages between sustainability
and long-term value increasingly clear
e.g. whole life costing and Capex vs Opex debate
Leaders waking up to the “Elephant in the Room”…
will a two tier market materialise with depreciation of poor
performing assets?
26

27. and be prepared for
systemic shifts…
From an employer to an enabler of
health and well-being
From a passive occupier to an
informed and empowered consumer
From isolated assets to community
service
From property as part of the built
environment to part of the energy
system
27

28. thank you
forumforthefuture.org | registered charity no. 1040519