Workforce Planning

1. Workforce Planning Presented by Senga Consulting Inc.

3. Rationale for attention to specialist, technical and executive personnel in forecasting.

4. Impact of environmental and organizational variables on HR demand and supply.

5. Various demand forecasting techniques.

6. Methods of determining external and internal HR supply.

10. Access to talent includes considering all access sources.

13. Communicate benefits and results to managers.

14. Establish a workforce planning team of knowledgeable employees from different functional areas and levels.

15. Develop and implement a plan.

18. Workforce skills

20. Staffing patterns

22. Determine future gaps (shortages) and surpluses (excesses)

23. Identify future changes in workforce demographics

25. Recruiting

26. Succession

27. Employee development and retraining

30. Environmental Scanning Cost and availability of capital Government Regulations Labour availability Competition Technology Supplier power Globalization Customer expectations 8 Senga Consulting Inc. Copyright © 2009 | All Rights Reserved

32. Monitoring – follow key indicators that affect the organization.

33. Forecasting – after monitoring, project the impact on the organization.

36. Delphi Technique –forecasts and judgments of a group of experts are solicited and summarized to determine the future of employment.

37. Impact Analysis –trends are analyzed by a panel of experts who then predict the probability of future events.

40. Globalization – affects sovereignty, prosperity, jobs, wages, and social legislation

41. Political and legislative factors – influence organizations with changes to laws and regulations

42. Technological factors –new issues include online HR functions, identity theft, e-learning, answering email on vacations

43. Demographic factors –include age, gender, family status, education, economic status, labour market

49. Rationale for attention to specialist, technical, and executive personnel groups in the HR forecasting process

50. Impact of environmental and organizational variables on the accuracy and time period of estimates derived from future estimates of HR demand and supply

58. Operational goals, production budgets

59. HR policies

60. Organizational structure, restructuring

61. Worker KSAs, competencies, expectations

62. HRMS level of development

63. Organizational culture, climate, job satisfaction, communications

66. Labour markets and unions

67. Government laws and regulations

68. Industry and product life cycles

69. Technological changes

70. Competitor labour usage

71. Global market for skilled labour

75. Determine NET HR Requirements External supply requirements = replacement + change supply components Change supply = hiring to increase (or decrease) the overall staffing level Replacement supply = hiring to replace all normal losses External supply = current workforce # x (replacement % per year + change % per year) 24 Senga Consulting Inc. Copyright © 2009 | All Rights Reserved

76. Example External supply = current workforce x (replacement % per yr + change % per yr) Surplus = 1000 x (4 % per year (0.04) + 2 % per year (0.02) 40 + 20 = 60 Need for 60 employees Deficit = 1000 x (4% per year (0.04) + -7% per year (-0.03) 40 + -70 = -30 Need to reduce by 30 employees 25 Senga Consulting Inc. Copyright © 2009 | All Rights Reserved

77. Your Turn External supply = current workforce x (replacement % per yr + change % per yr) Surplus = 10,000 x (3.5 % per year (0.035) + 3 % per year (0.03) + = Need to hire employees Deficit = 10,000 x (6% per year (0.06) + -8% per year (-0.08) + = Need to reduce by employees 26 Senga Consulting Inc. Copyright © 2009 | All Rights Reserved

82. Linkages between labour demand forecasting and the supply

86. Effective Trend Analysis Five steps to conducting an effective index/trend analysis: Select the appropriate business index Track the index over time Track the total number of employees over time Calculate the average ratio of the business index to the total number of employees E.g. employee requirement ratio - the relationship between the business index and the demand for labour Calculate the Forecasted Demand for Labour 32 Senga Consulting Inc. Copyright © 2009 | All Rights Reserved

92. Scenario Forecasts Projections of future demand for human resources based on differing assumptions about future events. Optimistic Sales Normal Pessimistic Now T + 2 Years T + 1 Year T + 3 Years Time 38 Senga Consulting Inc. Copyright © 2009 | All Rights Reserved

95. Regression Analysis Y = dependent variable (HR demand) A = constant (Y intercept) B = slope of linear relationship between X and Y X = independent variable (e.g. level of sales) B Y – Dependent Variable A X – Independent Variable 40 Senga Consulting Inc. Copyright © 2009 | All Rights Reserved

96. Regression Prediction Y = A + BX Y = dependent variable (HR demand) A = constant (Y intercept) B = slope of linear relationship between X and Y X = independent variable (e.g. level of sales) Where 41 Senga Consulting Inc. Copyright © 2009 | All Rights Reserved

98. Exercise Step 1Calculate XY, X2, average X and average Y X Sales ($ Millions) 2.0 2.5 3.5 5.0 6.5 19.5 Y # of Employees 25 28 30 38 54 175 XY 50 70 105 190 351 766 X2 4.00 6.25 12.25 25.00 42.25 89.75 Average X = 19.5/5 = 3.9 Average Y = 175/5 = 35 N = 5 43 Senga Consulting Inc. Copyright © 2009 | All Rights Reserved

99. Exercise Step 2Calculate the value of B (slope of the linear relationship between X and Y) XY 50 70 105 190 351 766 X2 4.00 6.25 12.25 25.00 42.25 89.75 Average X = 3.9 N = 5 Average Y = 35 44 Senga Consulting Inc. Copyright © 2009 | All Rights Reserved

100. Exercise Step 3Calculate A (constant or intercept) Average X = 3.9 Average Y = 35 B = 6.09 IF Y = A + BX Then AND A = 35 – (6.09)(3.9) A = 11.23 45 Senga Consulting Inc. Copyright © 2009 | All Rights Reserved

101. Exercise Step 4Determine the regression prediction equation Y = A + BX Whew! So what? Independent causal variable X (e.g., sales) AND Dependent variable Y (e.g., predicted # of personnel) Even if sales are zero the value for A is 11.23 (round to 11.0) or 11 persons. For every increase unit ($1 Million) sales (X) there is a predicted increase of 6.09 staff (Y) associated with that change. A = 11.23 B = 6.09 X = Dependent Variable Y = 11.23 + (6.09)(X) 46 Senga Consulting Inc. Copyright © 2009 | All Rights Reserved

102. Exercise Step 5Calculate predicted HR demand (Y) by inserting values for X Predict the HR demand for personnel at $8 million and $10 million. Y = A + BX Y = A + BX Y = A + BX $10 million $8 million A = 11.23 A = 11.23 A = 11.23 B = 6.09 B = 6.09 B = 6.09 X = Sales ($M) X = 8 X = 10 Y= 11.23 + (6.09)(X) Y = 11.23 + (6.09)(8) Y = 59.99 60 Staff required Y = 11.23 + (6.09)(10) Y = 72.18 72/73 Staff required 47 Senga Consulting Inc. Copyright © 2009 | All Rights Reserved

105. Relationship between forecasting and replacement management

106. Methods of determining external and internal supply of employees such as:

107. Skills and management inventories,

108. Replacement analysis,

109. Markov models,

110. Linear programming,

111. Movement analysis,

117. Process of finding employee for key managerial positionsLong-term succession Training and work experience to enable individuals to assume higher-level job appointments in the future Short-term emergency replacement Individuals who have quit, been terminated due to performance problems, have died, and so on 53 Senga Consulting Inc. Copyright © 2009 | All Rights Reserved

118. Replacement Analysis Improve effectively filling vacancies Performance 1Outstanding 2Above average 3Average/good 4Below Average 5 Unacceptable Readiness AReady now BReady in 1 year CReady in 2 years DNot suitable for this job 54 Senga Consulting Inc. Copyright © 2009 | All Rights Reserved

124. Number of external hires needed

125. Movement patterns and expected duration in specified jobs associated with patterns of career progression

129. Movement Patterns Remain in current job Promotion to higher job classification Lateral move Exit from a job (e.g., termination, layoff, voluntary exit) Demotion 60 Senga Consulting Inc. Copyright © 2009 | All Rights Reserved

132. 1 additional level 4

133. 6 additional level 5

136. 15% level 7

137. 20% level 8

138. 25% level 9

139. Positions are start of year

140. 1 – level 4

141. 6 – level 5

142. 20 – level 6

143. 32 – level 7

144. 40 – level 8

146. Exercise Start at the top with the most senior positions since most movement in organizations is up due to promotions and replacements. 63 Senga Consulting Inc. Copyright © 2009 | All Rights Reserved

147. Exercise Movement analysis has identified this year’s need to fill 68 vacancies. 167 moves will be required because of promotion from within. 64 Senga Consulting Inc. Copyright © 2009 | All Rights Reserved

149. Exercise* Start at the top and work your way down *Adapted from Strategic Human Resources Planning, Belcourt and McBey, Nelson, 2010. 66 Senga Consulting Inc. Copyright © 2009 | All Rights Reserved

153. Headhunter, recruiting fees

154. Interview training

155. Travel costs

156. Admin expenses

157. Costs of lost production

158. Bonuses

159. Increased salaries

161. Decreased productivity due to training and learning curve gaps

162. Orientation and training time

163. Decline in team morale and productivity

166. Facilitating an enjoyable and collegial work atmosphere

167. Designing meaningful jobs

168. Formulating and administering performance and compensation systems that reward better performers

169. Offering more flexible and attractive work arrangements) -- flextime, telecommuting, cafeteria-style benefits plans

173. Steps in the succession management process

174. Compare job and competency approaches

175. Identifying high potential talent

176. Management development methods

177. Measuring success of management succession

181. Replacement planning has evolved into succession management by:

182. Broadening the focus

183. Expanding the time horizon

184. Creating a talent pool

186. Reasons for Succession Management Provide opportunities for high-potentials Identify replacement needs Increase the talent pool of promotable employees Contribute to implementing strategic business plans Help individuals realize their career plans Tap the potential for intellectual capital Encourage the advancement of diverse groups Cope with the effects of voluntary separation programs Decide which workers can be terminated Cope with the effects of downsizing Reduce headcount to essential strategically important jobs only 74 Senga Consulting Inc. Copyright © 2009 | All Rights Reserved

193. Differentiate successful employees from non successful

194. Hard and soft skills

198. Replacement charts

199. Strategic replacement

202. Job Rotations

203. Special Assignments

204. Formal Training and Development

208. Job Rotations

209. Special Assignments

210. Formal Training and Development

215. Increase positive perceptions of development opportunities

216. High potentials’ perceptions of the succession management process

217. Higher participation in developmental activities

220. Reduced ave # of positions with no identified successors

221. Increased % of managers with replacement plans

222. Increased % of key positions filled according to plans

223. Increased ratio of internal to external hires

224. Increased retention rates of key talent

225. Increased % of positive job evaluations

227. Contact Information Wayne Rawcliffe Senga Consulting Inc. 604.909.3840 205, 1275 West 6th Avenue Vancouver, BC V6H 1A6 wayne@senga.ca www.senga.ca 87 Senga Consulting Inc. Copyright © 2009 | All Rights Reserved

Workforce Planning

Recommended

Recommended

More Related Content

What's hot

What's hot (20)

Similar to Workforce Planning

Similar to Workforce Planning (20)

Workforce Planning