for MBA class @ Nakorn Rachasima

1. Strategic Management @ 2013
Wai chamornmarn
2

2. Strategic Management @ 2013
The first ……… in thailand that make a big change.

3. Strategic Management @ 2013
The first………Then……………….
• The oil palm was first introduced to Southeast Asia in 1848, when four
seedlings, originating from West Africa, were planted in the botanical
gardens at Buitenzorg (now Bogor) in Java (Hartley 1988, 21).
• http://www.cambridge.org/us/books/kiple/palmoil.htm
• While on a trip to the United States in 1952, Masura Ibuka, founder of Tokyo
Telecommunications Engineering Corporation (nowSony), discovered that AT&T was
about to make licensing available for the transistor. Ibuka and his partner, physicist Akio
Morita, convinced the Japanese Ministry of International Trade and Industry (MITI) to
finance the $25,000 licensing fee (equivalent to $216,134 today). For several months
Ibuka traveled around the United States borrowing ideas from the American transistor
manufacturers. Improving upon the ideas, Tokyo Telecommunications Engineering
Corporation made its first functional transistor radio in 1954.[5] Within five years, Tokyo
Telecommunications Engineering Corporation grew from seven employees to
approximately five hundred.
• Other Japanese companies soon followed their entry into the American market and the
grand total of electronic products exported from Japan in 1958 increased 2.5 times in
comparison to 1957.[11]
• http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transistor_radio

4. Strategic Management @ 2013
•

5. Strategic Management @ 2013
Futures
Long-term notions
of the good society
Unrealized but realisitic
possibilities of problem
solutions
Likely temporal
development
of societal problems
Possible futures
Desirable futures
Probable futures

6. Strategic Management @ 2013
•
•
•
•
•Technology forecasting
•Scenario Planning
–
Decision Analysis
Game theory
Analogies and Pattern
recognition

7. Strategic Management @ 2013
The Cynefin framework

8. Strategic Management @ 2013
Thinking the Future
Debating the Future Shaping the Future
Participatory
Action oriented
Open
Not only analysing or contemplating future
developments but supporting actors in
actively shaping the future
not predicting a pre-
determined future but
exploring how the future
might evolve in different
ways depending on the
actions of various players
and decisions taken „today‟.
•involving the key
stakeholders
•Results are
disseminated and
discussed among a
wide audience
FORESIGHT
A process of systematic collective reasoning about the future
Professor Ron Johnston
Executive Director
Australian Centre for
Innovation
University of Sydney

9. Strategic Management @ 2013
• Type of Scenario

10. Thomas
Powell Oxford
University

11. Strategic Management @ 2013
Scenarios versus Forecasts

12. Strategic Management @ 2013
Types of Scenarios
• Deductive ←→ Inductive
• organizing the big uncertainties or questions about the future into a logical form vs. taking into
consideration all data and ideas about the future,then insights about the future are induced from this
study of the data.
• Exploratory ←→ Anticipatory
• Present → Future. The current situation and then describe the steps that lead to a future situation vs.
Present ← Future Start with a prescribed vision of the future (either optimistic, pessimistic, or neutral)
and then work backwards in time to visualize how this future could emerge.
• Qualitative ←→ Quantitative
• visual symbols: diagrams; pictures or words: written phrases, outlines; or storylines vs.
Numerical information ,Commonly computed with models
•

13. Strategic Management @ 2013
Scenario Planning – Types
Scenario 1
Scenario 2
Scenario 3
Inductive
Scenario 1 Scenario 2
Scenario 3 Scenario 4
Deductive
Official
Future
Alternative scenario
Incremental
Vision
Normative
Adapted from Ged Davis, Scenarios as a tool for the 21st century, Shell International, 2002
Ged Davis is Managing
Director, Head of the Centre
for Strategic Insight at the
World Economic Forum.

14. Strategic Management @ 2013
Starting from the future
Starting from the present
Exploratory and Normative Scenario Analysis
What next?
What if?
Where to?
How to?

15. Strategic Management @ 2013
•

16. Strategic Management @ 2013
History of Scenarios

17. Strategic Management @ 2013
Scenarios
Caribbean
Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (2006)

20. Shell Scenarios

21. Strategic Management @ 2013
Eurelectric Power choices –scenario 2050
Total consumption of energy will decrease...
Paradigm shift to efficient electric technologies
More electricity = less energy

22. Strategic Management @ 2013
• Steps in Scenario
Development

23. Opportunities and threats can be found by analysing the
changes in the operating environment
Trend analysis
One or several dominating development
process analysed
Scenario analysis
Several alternatives described and analysed
Weak signal analysis
Uncertain but potentially high impact

30. Strategic Management @ 2013
• Exercise: AEC 2025

31. Strategic Management @ 2013
AEC Logic

32. Strategic Management @ 2013
IF ………Then…………

33. Strategic Management @ 2013
If………….. Then………………

34. Strategic Management @ 2013
•
• Scenario building workshop

35. Strategic Management @ 2013
• “Genius” forecasts
• Expert Groups, deskwork,
• Modelling tools like simulation, cross-impact; gaming
• Surveys, clustering articulated viewpoints
• Workshops

36. Strategic Management @ 2013
- ,Outward
DRIVERS
• Social
• Technological
• Economic
• Environmental
• Political
• Values
A
B
C
“drivers and shapers”
/ group trends and events
drivers -
/brainstorming
-
-
drivers

37. Strategic Management @ 2013
• Exercise: Thailand 2025

38. Strategic Management @ 2013
If…………….. Then…………….

39. Strategic Management @ 2013
Climate Crisis
Drought and saline resistant crops
Efficient irrigation techniques
Climate proof infrastructure
Early warning systems
Adaptation
Resources Constraints and
Climate Crisis
Climate Security
Likely Impacts

40. Strategic Management @ 2013
Climate Change

41. Strategic Management @ 2013
Thai Agriculture Scenarios: Biotechnology, GM, Organic And
Extensification

42. Strategic Management @ 2013
•Exercise
•

43. 

:
:
-
 value creation
clustering

 R&D
.
 R&D
 Motor Way: - EWEC
 ICD/ CY
- -
 Clustering



:

44. 

 -


45. Strategic Management @ 2013

48. Strategic Management @ 2013
•
• Elements of a Scenario

49. Strategic Management @ 2013
Write Scenarios
Scenario –
/multidimentional overview
Vignette -
/
Focuses on one dimension, others contextual.
Profile -
/skeletal description of future in terms of key parameters.

50. Strategic Management @ 2013
Elements of a Scenario
• 1. A base year (or period)
• 2. A time horizon (or period) and time steps.
• 3. A geographic coverage – city, country, global?
• 4. A description of step-wise changes
• 5. Driving forces or uncertainties
• 6. Storyline.

51. Strategic Management @ 2013
Effective Scenarios
kneejerk
-
Robust (not Accurate as such)
Novel/ Stimulating
Provocative/ Challenging
/Useful

52. Strategic Management @ 2013
Transportation
Power
Information & Communications
Health
Lighting
Services
Automation & Control
Dietmar Theis
Siemens AG
Corporate Technology
München
dietmar.theis@siemens.com
Pictures of the Future
and Horizons2020 :
Developing scenarios for
future technologies and
food for thought
about future lifeworlds

53. "Pictures of the Future" and "Horizons 2020" complement each
other in providing holistic scenarios about the long-term future
5 . . .10 years Time Horizon 10 . . . 20 years
Customers Society
Markets Focus Individual
Technologies Values
Technology Planning Communication
Business Opportunities Benefit Discussion
Communication Impulses
Corporate TechnologyDriverCorporate Communications
Transportation
Power
HealthServices
Information &
Communications
Automation &
Control

54. Future designs
• VISION (desired future; „mission“ a means to approach the vision)
• TREND (forseeable developments, extrapolated from present situation;
expert knowledge)
• FORECAST / PROGNOSIS (quantifies time and degree of use of trends;
expert knowledge)
• SCENARIOS (comprehensive approach, covers multiple trends and their
mutual interaction, allows for the emergence of several possible futures
– STRATEGIC SCENARIOS (operational preparation for the future, quantified
options)
– COMMUNICATION SCENARIOS (intended for public discussion, qualitative
aspects of alternative future designs)

55. Picture of the Future
Information and Communication

56. © Siemens AG, CT SM
Picture of the Future
Transportation

57. Smart Traffic Management Increases Infrastructure Efficiency
© Siemens AG, CT SM




Specific Transportation Trends:
 Cost Reduction in Rail Operation
 Efficiency in Road Utilization
 Gate-free, Electronic Fare Management
systems
 Automatic Passenger Counting solutions
 Automated, demand-oriented systems
for train operation
 Advanced highway maintenance
planning systems
 Infrastructural systems to support
collision avoidance
 Smart, cost-efficient systems
for traffic detection
 Advanced planning and control
systems for Traffic Management




58. Strategic Management @ 2013
CORPORATETECHNOLOG
Health
Patient-Centric Healthcare
Integrated Services
Theranostics
Bio-, Nano-,
Info- Technologies
© Siemens AG, All Rights Reserved.

59. Strategic Management @ 2013