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MOOCs and Higher Education
1. Technology-Induced
Conundrums in Higher Education
Vince Kellen, Ph.D.
Senior Vice Provost
Academic Planning, Analytics and Technologies
University of Kentucky
Vince.Kellen@uky.edu
December 20, 2012
This is a living document subject to substantial revision.
2. Where are we going?
The current IT trends in higher
education have led to wild
prognostications, hyperbole,
unbridled optimism, denial,
consternation, fear, rejection and
withdrawal
In this noise, very little clear
strategic thinking has been
applied
„Let‟s clear our minds of cant‟
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3. Framing concepts
1. Business models versus
technology models
2. Unbundling
3. The last mile problem
4. Scale versus quality
5. Deep personalization
technology
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4. Business models versus IT models
People are confusing MOOC business models with technology models. MOOC
business models will spread (diffuse) very differently than MOOC technology
Information technology represent general purpose tools that will find their way into
many different business models
MOOCs are spurring rapid innovation in technology, not so much business
models. MOOC business models are under stress right now!
What is good for the goose is good for the gander. Information technology lowers
barriers to entry, including barriers that traditional higher education institutions
face in entering MOOC markets
The interest in MOOCs comes on the heels of disinterest in for-profit business
models
The technology innovation that will follow MOOCs is more interesting (IMHO) than
their emerging business models
• This technology can potentially lower significantly the cost of delivering education
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5. How will MOOCs make money?
Publishing
• Subscription fee to the learner (e.g., $100 per year, $20 per course)
Badges
• Charge users for a badge or certificate (e.g., $100 per badge)
Headhunting
• Charge potential employers a finder‟s fee for matching the learner to a
job
Software licensing
• Charge universities for using the platform (SaaS licensing, software
installed locally, revenue share)
Advertising
• Sell ads placed within the platform
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6. Unbundling
Whether to bundle or unbundle is a recurring problem in many industries. Bundling
ensures lock-in (e.g., Apple). Unbundling supports scale (e.g., Google)
What can be bundled together or sold separately?
• „Destination resort‟ services, physical facilities, course content, course delivery,
athletics, degree/certification, accreditation, community management (alumni
development, etc.), government aid (financial aid, state support)
• Institutions have been providing different combinations of bundling/unbundling resulting
in the mix of providers today
• The critical bundle: government aid, degree/certification, accreditation
• The critical unbundling questions:
– What happens if aid can be given for non-degreed or non-accredited education of any kind?
MOOCs do not present any significant change in overall bundling strategies
unless public policy changes
• Universities can become MOOCs if needed but that radically changes their mission and
their strategy
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7. Higher education has a ‘last mile’ problem
Education in any form is struggling to address families and communities with economic and
other readiness problems
Free or low-cost educational content does not easily solve readiness problems which have a
multitude of factors
For profit models rightfully struggle with „last-mile‟ problems. Public policy matters!
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8. Scale/ubiquity versus quality
In prior versions of IT disruptions, consumers have preferred
ubiquity and scale/convenience over technical quality (e.g.,
Internet, cell phones, social media)
Is this true for eLearning or education in general? It depends on
how we define quality.
Let‟s define quality as the ability for the learner to apply what was
learned in a way that provides them with the advantage or benefit
they sought
Would some learners accept inferior educational delivery/outcomes
to gain ubiquity, ease of access or low cost? (Why are we holding
this meeting in person?)
On the other hand…
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9. What would Abraham Lincoln think of a MOOC?
Abraham Lincoln
• Autodidactic
• Books, books, books
• Became a skilled military strategist
• Penchant for poetry, Shakespeare,
politics and history
My nephew
• Not an autodidact
• Good worker, smart kid, but…
• It takes a village
• After a few low-security colleges
and much money borrowed
• He has found an intellectual home
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10. Future job demands
Middle skill jobs have received
little wage growth and job growth
since 1980
High skilled jobs, especially those
with advanced degrees, have
experienced the best wage and
job growth
The work force middle is getting
„hollowed out‟ The Growth of Low Skill Service Jobs and the Polarization of the U.S. Labor Market. David
Autor and David Dorn. NBER Working Paper 15150. http://www.nber.org/papers/w15150
The recession may have
accelerated the trend
The demand for masters level
and above education is likely to
increase. MOOCs are likely to
play a role in filling these gaps
Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation: Is College Worth It?
http://www.scribd.com/doc/113360662/Is-College-Worth-It
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11. The hidden gem: deep personalization technology
In all this noise about MOOCs, I am seeing a significant trend towards adaptive learning
technology with different approaches taken by emerging vendors (e.g., Knewton, LoudCloud,
Udacity)
Adaptive learning technology matches content to student adjusting to how well the student is
mastering concepts and skills, responding to questions and tasks
Other personalization techniques (e.g., text mining, neural networks) and incorporating other
forms of student data (e.g., demographic, cognitive, non-cognitive, personality tests, other
surveys) can be brought to bear in this problem of matching educational content and
interactions to learners (deep personalization technology – DPT)
The industry is moving towards the use of technology that relies on lots of data about the
learner and that delivers deeply personalized experiences by altering text, images, pace and
content so it is matched to individual learner abilities and traits
When adopted at scale, this kind of technology could have a profound impact on what goes
in a classroom. Active learning, facilitating, coaching and intellectual community
management become key activities
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12. Volume operations versus complex systems
Excluding the late 20th century, universities have been largely complex systems, delivering niche and
customizable interactions F2F settings. Large lectures were added to increase output while reducing costs
Deep personalization technology and MOOC approaches can begin to handle both high-volume and
specialty classes
Geoffrey Moore (2005). Dealing With Darwin
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13. Another perspective
High
effectiveness
MOOC + DPT + F2F
Small F2F class
MOOC + DPT
Current MOOC approach
Broadcast class
Low
effectiveness
Low volume High volume
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14. MOOC threats and opportunities
Threats Opportunities
Should public policy regarding aid and MOOC technology can lower barriers to entry for
accreditation substantially change, all forms of ALL competitors, providing advantage for
education that bundle aid/degrees/accreditation traditional and smaller universities. So far it hasn‟t
will be at risk
MOOC technology and business models can help
Traditional universities and for-profits could all universities address “high volume” operations.
master MOOC technology, threatening weaker, If automated deep personalization approaches
slower institutions and technology is used, effectiveness can be
maintained
A MOOC player might be able to produce a
sizeable quantity of high-quality learners that MOOC technology can be used to address the
industry values and seeks out over higher “long tail” of educational delivery (large numbers
education. of niche content/instructors to small numbers of
leaners). So far, it hasn‟t
Over time, as employers reliably run across many
high-quality MOOC badged employees, MOOC MOOC technology can be used to provide „fast-
brand value may be significant trackers‟ with shorter times to degrees, perhaps
starting in high school, freeing up financial
resources for subsequent graduate and
professional education. So far, it hasn‟t
MOOC technology might be a way to address
some college readiness issues in high school. So
far, it hasn‟t
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15. Chaos and complexity in strategy
In highly dynamic markets it is not clear what kinds of organizations have
an advantage. The market may be cooling off just enough to provide us
some direction within the next year
As each competitor enters new areas of competition, they are often drawn
into areas of weakness
• Can a local brand compete globally against other global brands?
• Can an elite institution compete in a new market against non-elite institution?
• Can an online university deliver face-to-face and vice versa?
Organizations that incrementally and quickly extend their core
competencies over new adjacent territory have a double advantage
• There is less to learn. Existing strengths & skills can be more easily applied
• As orgs learn, they can adjust smaller maneuvers faster and cheaper than
adjusting big maneuvers, staying in tune with the shifting market
Speed matters. Can we move quickly here? I think we can
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16. What should we do?
Universities should incrementally extend their core competencies using
MOOC technology and business approaches, incrementally expanding
the reach of their mission
Brand matters! Taking an existing brand into uncharted waters is very
difficult. Launching a new brand in any water is also very difficult. Treat
your brand with care. Think through distribution channels (Coursera,
Udacity, EdX, etc.) and marketing approaches. Test and validate
frequently
Encourage iterative and incremental innovation within our universities.
Facilitate sharing of what works and what doesn‟t quickly across
universities
All competitors will eventually have to master deep personalization
technology and the associated business processes to collect and manage
the associated data. Start learning how to do this now
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17. OMG!
A nearby state university is launching a MOOC with the following
• Uses deep personalization technology (DPT) that is automatically configures
itself depending on learner skills and attributes, reports back on learner
effectiveness in real-time
• Includes both large-volume gateway courses and specialty courses
• Is linking peer tutoring and on-demand 7x24 phone, IM, web conferencing
support so that any student who is stuck on a concept or task can interact with
someone or something quickly
• Incorporates intense F2F sessions for students where needed
• Lets student choose between certificates and degrees at undergrad and
graduate levels
• Has signed corporate partners to recruit students via data from the MOOC
• Is priced at or below our current tuition levels and operates profitably
• Is fully accredited and is getting rave reviews from students & faculty
• Is using the revenue stream to attract star faculty facile in the new technology
• Appears to be designed to „poach‟ our students
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