1. The 4th International Seville Conference on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA) 12 & 13 May 2011 Emerging issues and wild cards as future shapers and shakers Victor van Rij Ministry of education, culture and science Netherlands

7. Emerging issues and wild cards as future shapers and shakers strength of shaking narratives Berlin Wall 1989 Iceland volcano 2010 11 September 2001 The internet

9. Emerging issues and wild cards as future shapers and shakers Strong shaping narratives 1933 2001

16. Emerging issues and wild cards as future shapers and shakers

19. [ Emerging issues and wild cards as future shapers and shakers ]

20. [ Emerging issues and wild cards as future shapers and shakers ]

22. Past Present Future The principles of Issue Centered Scanning Emerging issue B B = Primary signal (full or partial future issue description) = Affirmative Secondary signal = Not affirmative Secondary signal = Expected affirmative signal not showing up = Analysis of Primary signal (leading to indication of Secondary signals to watch for)

23. 1. Described impact (on society, economy, ecology and the domain) 2. Desirability (which values are addressed in the impact description, what is the narrator's point of view) 3. Factual basis (reference to reliable and/or biased sources) 4. Plausible storyline 5. Novelty (is the issue described really new for the policy-makers) 6. Interests at stake (does the storyline involve strong conflicts or commonalities in interests) 7. Emotional aspects and critical aspects (does the issue appeal or concern emotional and or ethical legal aspects) 8. Changeability (can the story or its impact be altered by human action - how does the issue relate to present day decision making and action and on different levels)