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[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Russia Today:  Oligarchs, Oil and Gas
Rank Country 2008 GDP  (purchasing power parity)  1 World  $ 69,490,000,000,000  2 European Union  $ 14,820,000,000,000  3 United States  $ 14,290,000,000,000  4 China  $ 7,800,000,000,000  5 Japan  $ 4,348,000,000,000  6 India  $ 3,267,000,000,000  7 Germany  $ 2,863,000,000,000  8 United Kingdom  $ 2,231,000,000,000  9 Russia  $ 2,225,000,000,000  10 France  $ 2,097,000,000,000  11 Brazil  $ 1,990,000,000,000  12 Italy  $ 1,821,000,000,000  13 Mexico  $ 1,559,000,000,000  14 Spain  $ 1,378,000,000,000  15 Canada  $ 1,307,000,000,000  16 Korea, South  $ 1,278,000,000,000
Economic Regions  in Russia ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Western Russia Central Economic Region Central Black Earth Region North Caucasus
West - Central Russia Northwest Economic Region Volga Region Volga-Vyatka Region
Central Russia Northern Economic Region Urals Region West Siberian Region
Eastern  Russia East Siberian Economic Region Far Eastern Region Kaliningrad Region
Russian GDP Breakdown
Trade surplus:  >US$100bn Russia’s Trade, 2006 Export (%) Import (%)  1 Food and Agricultural Products 0.9 13.3 2 Mineral Goods (Gas,Oil,Petrol,Ores,Coal etc.) 65.1 1.0 3 Chemical Products and Rubber 5.6 13.4 4 Leather Raw Materials, Furs and their products 0.1 0.3 5 Wood, Timber, Pulp and Paper Goods 4.0 4.0 6 Textiles and Footwear 0.4 3.7 7 Precious Stones and Precious Metals 4.2 0.4 8 Ferrous and Non-Ferrous Metals and Products 13.8 6.9 9 Machinery, Equipment and Transport Equipment 5.8 40.3 10 Other goods  0.9 4.2
Ownership Concentration ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Oligarchy under Yeltsin Mikhail Khodorkovsky (YUKOS) Boris Berezovsky (member of State Duma) Vladimir Gusinsky (Media-Most)
Government Industry Services Mass Media Agriculture
Oleg Deripaska ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Viktor Vekselberg ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Roman Abramovich
New President – New Regime ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
New President – New Regime ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Boris Berezovsky  left Russia, currently lives in London.  Vladimir Gusinsky  currently lives in Tel Aviv.
Forbes 2004:  100 Richest People in Russia ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook Rank Country Oil - production (bbl/day), 2007  1 World  85,540,000  2 Russia  9,980,000  3 Saudi Arabia  9,200,000  4 United States  8,457,000  5 Iran  4,700,000  6 China  3,725,000  7 Mexico  3,501,000  8 Canada  3,425,000  9 United Arab Emirates  2,948,000  10 European Union  2,676,000  11 Venezuela  2,667,000  12 Kuwait  2,613,000  13 Norway  2,565,000  14 Iraq  2,420,000  15 Nigeria  2,352,000  16 Brazil  2,277,000
Rank Country Natural gas – production, 2007  (cu m)  1 World  3,021,000,000,000  2 Russia  654,000,000,000  3 United States  545,900,000,000  4 European Union  197,800,000,000  5 Canada  187,000,000,000  6 Iran  111,900,000,000  7 Norway  99,300,000,000  8 Algeria  85,700,000,000  9 Netherlands  76,330,000,000  10 Saudi Arabia  75,900,000,000  11 United Kingdom  72,300,000,000  12 China  69,270,000,000  13 Turkmenistan  68,880,000,000  14 Uzbekistan  65,190,000,000  15 Malaysia  64,500,000,000  16 Qatar  59,800,000,000
Global Gas Production – Top 10 Producers Current Gas Importers
 
BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2008
Current Oligarchs  (increasing number of wealth)
Effects of Oligarchy on Post-USSR Russia NEGATIVE POSITIVE
 
 
Oil Pipelines ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
 
www.eia.doe.gov ,[object Object]
Oil and Gas ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
 
 
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],More State Control
Russia: As State Companies Gain Control  Of Oil Production, Growth Moderates MMB/D
Proved oil reserves BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2008
 
Electricity Generation by Fuel in Western Europe avg. GW
Oil consumption per capita BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2008
Natural gas consumption per capita BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2008
Global Gas Resource Base Proved Reserves Current Net Gas Exporters
[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
 
Gazprom Credit Rating as of 01.06.2008                                                                                                                                                                         
Proved natural gas reserves BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2008
What is happening to petrodollars?   ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Rank Country Current account balance, 2007  1 China  $ 368,200,000,000  2 Germany  $ 267,100,000,000  3 Japan  $ 187,800,000,000  4 Saudi Arabia  $ 151,000,000,000  5 Russia  $ 97,600,000,000  6 Norway  $ 84,350,000,000  7 Kuwait  $ 65,210,000,000  8 European Union  $ 51,400,000,000  9 Venezuela  $ 48,440,000,000  10 Netherlands  $ 47,000,000,000  11 Libya  $ 43,330,000,000  12 Switzerland  $ 40,810,000,000  13 United Arab Emirates  $ 36,410,000,000  14 Algeria  $ 35,800,000,000  15 Sweden  $ 35,220,000,000
Rank Country Reserves of foreign exchange and gold  Date of Information 1 China  $ 2,033,000,000,000  31 Dec2008 est.  2 Japan  $ 954,100,000,000  31 Dec 2007 est.  3 Russia  $ 435,400,000,000  12 Dec 2008  4 Taiwan  $ 296,400,000,000  31 Dec 2008  5 India  $ 250,000,000,000  31 Dec 2008 est.  6 France  $ 204,400,000,000  2008  7 Korea, South  $ 201,200,000,000  31 Dec 2008  8 Brazil  $ 197,400,000,000  31 Dec 2008 est.  9 Singapore  $ 168,800,000,000  31 Dec 2008 est.  10 Hong Kong  $ 165,900,000,000  31 Dec 2008  11 Algeria  $ 150,500,000,000  31 Dec 2008 est.  12 Germany  $ 136,200,000,000  31 Dec 2007 est.  13 Thailand  $ 106,300,000,000  31 Dec 2008 est.  14 Malaysia  $ 104,400,000,000  31 Dec 2008 est.
Resource Curse? Dutch Disease? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Hoff and Stiglitz:  Greater ratio of natural resources to industrial assets decreases political constituency for the rule of law and the likelihood that it will emerge Natural resource sector is less contract-intensive No rule of law – easier to borrow money, renege on the debts, strip assets, hide them abroad
Macro Economy ,[object Object],[object Object],Growth Rate Years until GDP doubles 1% 72 2% 36 3% 24 4% 18 5% 14.4 6% 12 7% 10.3 10% 7.2 20% 3.6
Consumption ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Rank Country Military expenditures (% of GDP)  Date of Information 1 Oman  11.40  2005 est.  2 Qatar  10.00  2005 est.  3 Saudi Arabia  10.00  2005 est.  4 Iraq  8.60  2006  5 Jordan  8.60  2006  6 Israel  7.30  2006  7 Yemen  6.60  2006  10 Macedonia  6.00  2005 est.  12 Syria  5.90  2005 est.  13 Angola  5.70  2006  16 Kuwait  5.30  2006  17 Turkey  5.30  2005 est.  20 Singapore  4.90  2005 est.  22 Bahrain  4.50  2006  25 China  4.30  2006  28 United States  4.06  2005 est.  30 Russia  3.90  2005
NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS  ,[object Object],[object Object]
International Atomic Energy Agency www.iaea.org Russia expands nuclear and hydropower generation to export more fossil fuels

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9 Oil

  • 1.
  • 2. Rank Country 2008 GDP (purchasing power parity) 1 World $ 69,490,000,000,000 2 European Union $ 14,820,000,000,000 3 United States $ 14,290,000,000,000 4 China $ 7,800,000,000,000 5 Japan $ 4,348,000,000,000 6 India $ 3,267,000,000,000 7 Germany $ 2,863,000,000,000 8 United Kingdom $ 2,231,000,000,000 9 Russia $ 2,225,000,000,000 10 France $ 2,097,000,000,000 11 Brazil $ 1,990,000,000,000 12 Italy $ 1,821,000,000,000 13 Mexico $ 1,559,000,000,000 14 Spain $ 1,378,000,000,000 15 Canada $ 1,307,000,000,000 16 Korea, South $ 1,278,000,000,000
  • 3.
  • 4. Western Russia Central Economic Region Central Black Earth Region North Caucasus
  • 5. West - Central Russia Northwest Economic Region Volga Region Volga-Vyatka Region
  • 6. Central Russia Northern Economic Region Urals Region West Siberian Region
  • 7. Eastern Russia East Siberian Economic Region Far Eastern Region Kaliningrad Region
  • 9. Trade surplus: >US$100bn Russia’s Trade, 2006 Export (%) Import (%) 1 Food and Agricultural Products 0.9 13.3 2 Mineral Goods (Gas,Oil,Petrol,Ores,Coal etc.) 65.1 1.0 3 Chemical Products and Rubber 5.6 13.4 4 Leather Raw Materials, Furs and their products 0.1 0.3 5 Wood, Timber, Pulp and Paper Goods 4.0 4.0 6 Textiles and Footwear 0.4 3.7 7 Precious Stones and Precious Metals 4.2 0.4 8 Ferrous and Non-Ferrous Metals and Products 13.8 6.9 9 Machinery, Equipment and Transport Equipment 5.8 40.3 10 Other goods 0.9 4.2
  • 10.
  • 11. Oligarchy under Yeltsin Mikhail Khodorkovsky (YUKOS) Boris Berezovsky (member of State Duma) Vladimir Gusinsky (Media-Most)
  • 12. Government Industry Services Mass Media Agriculture
  • 13.
  • 14.
  • 15.
  • 16.
  • 17.
  • 18.
  • 19. http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook Rank Country Oil - production (bbl/day), 2007 1 World 85,540,000 2 Russia 9,980,000 3 Saudi Arabia 9,200,000 4 United States 8,457,000 5 Iran 4,700,000 6 China 3,725,000 7 Mexico 3,501,000 8 Canada 3,425,000 9 United Arab Emirates 2,948,000 10 European Union 2,676,000 11 Venezuela 2,667,000 12 Kuwait 2,613,000 13 Norway 2,565,000 14 Iraq 2,420,000 15 Nigeria 2,352,000 16 Brazil 2,277,000
  • 20. Rank Country Natural gas – production, 2007 (cu m) 1 World 3,021,000,000,000 2 Russia 654,000,000,000 3 United States 545,900,000,000 4 European Union 197,800,000,000 5 Canada 187,000,000,000 6 Iran 111,900,000,000 7 Norway 99,300,000,000 8 Algeria 85,700,000,000 9 Netherlands 76,330,000,000 10 Saudi Arabia 75,900,000,000 11 United Kingdom 72,300,000,000 12 China 69,270,000,000 13 Turkmenistan 68,880,000,000 14 Uzbekistan 65,190,000,000 15 Malaysia 64,500,000,000 16 Qatar 59,800,000,000
  • 21. Global Gas Production – Top 10 Producers Current Gas Importers
  • 22.  
  • 23. BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2008
  • 24. Current Oligarchs (increasing number of wealth)
  • 25. Effects of Oligarchy on Post-USSR Russia NEGATIVE POSITIVE
  • 26.  
  • 27.  
  • 28.
  • 29.  
  • 30.
  • 31.
  • 32.  
  • 33.  
  • 34.
  • 35. Russia: As State Companies Gain Control Of Oil Production, Growth Moderates MMB/D
  • 36. Proved oil reserves BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2008
  • 37.  
  • 38. Electricity Generation by Fuel in Western Europe avg. GW
  • 39. Oil consumption per capita BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2008
  • 40. Natural gas consumption per capita BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2008
  • 41. Global Gas Resource Base Proved Reserves Current Net Gas Exporters
  • 42.
  • 43.
  • 44.  
  • 45. Gazprom Credit Rating as of 01.06.2008                                                                                                                                                                      
  • 46. Proved natural gas reserves BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2008
  • 47.
  • 48. Rank Country Current account balance, 2007 1 China $ 368,200,000,000 2 Germany $ 267,100,000,000 3 Japan $ 187,800,000,000 4 Saudi Arabia $ 151,000,000,000 5 Russia $ 97,600,000,000 6 Norway $ 84,350,000,000 7 Kuwait $ 65,210,000,000 8 European Union $ 51,400,000,000 9 Venezuela $ 48,440,000,000 10 Netherlands $ 47,000,000,000 11 Libya $ 43,330,000,000 12 Switzerland $ 40,810,000,000 13 United Arab Emirates $ 36,410,000,000 14 Algeria $ 35,800,000,000 15 Sweden $ 35,220,000,000
  • 49. Rank Country Reserves of foreign exchange and gold Date of Information 1 China $ 2,033,000,000,000 31 Dec2008 est. 2 Japan $ 954,100,000,000 31 Dec 2007 est. 3 Russia $ 435,400,000,000 12 Dec 2008 4 Taiwan $ 296,400,000,000 31 Dec 2008 5 India $ 250,000,000,000 31 Dec 2008 est. 6 France $ 204,400,000,000 2008 7 Korea, South $ 201,200,000,000 31 Dec 2008 8 Brazil $ 197,400,000,000 31 Dec 2008 est. 9 Singapore $ 168,800,000,000 31 Dec 2008 est. 10 Hong Kong $ 165,900,000,000 31 Dec 2008 11 Algeria $ 150,500,000,000 31 Dec 2008 est. 12 Germany $ 136,200,000,000 31 Dec 2007 est. 13 Thailand $ 106,300,000,000 31 Dec 2008 est. 14 Malaysia $ 104,400,000,000 31 Dec 2008 est.
  • 50.
  • 51. Hoff and Stiglitz: Greater ratio of natural resources to industrial assets decreases political constituency for the rule of law and the likelihood that it will emerge Natural resource sector is less contract-intensive No rule of law – easier to borrow money, renege on the debts, strip assets, hide them abroad
  • 52.
  • 53.
  • 54. Rank Country Military expenditures (% of GDP) Date of Information 1 Oman 11.40 2005 est. 2 Qatar 10.00 2005 est. 3 Saudi Arabia 10.00 2005 est. 4 Iraq 8.60 2006 5 Jordan 8.60 2006 6 Israel 7.30 2006 7 Yemen 6.60 2006 10 Macedonia 6.00 2005 est. 12 Syria 5.90 2005 est. 13 Angola 5.70 2006 16 Kuwait 5.30 2006 17 Turkey 5.30 2005 est. 20 Singapore 4.90 2005 est. 22 Bahrain 4.50 2006 25 China 4.30 2006 28 United States 4.06 2005 est. 30 Russia 3.90 2005
  • 55.
  • 56. International Atomic Energy Agency www.iaea.org Russia expands nuclear and hydropower generation to export more fossil fuels

Notas do Editor

  1. Turning to the supply side of the equation, we note that three countries account for over 55% of the world’s proved reserves, with Russia alone accounting for 27%. As we move beyond the Big 3 there are still many countries that have sufficient reserves to be gas exporters. The countries that currently export LNG are indicated in red. It is interesting to observe that three of the four largest reserve countries are still not players in the global LNG market, although Russia is a major pipeline exporter and will become an LNG exporter with the startup of the Sakhalin project next year.