1. Anna Beswick
Dr. Joseph Hagg
Adaptation Scotland
Science Officer
Adaptation Scotland
Adapting to climate change
Trends and projections
16th November 2012
contact: joseph.hagg@sepa.org.uk
Contact: anna@sniffer.org.uk

2. “Increase the resilience of organisations and infrastructure in
Scotland to meet the challenges and opportunities presented
by the impacts of climate change”
Adaptation Scotland Partnership:

3. change is constant
environmental
social legal
climate
political technological
economic

4. change is constant
2012
2020s 2050s 2080s 22nd
Century

5. change is constant
2012
2020s 2050s 2080s 22nd
Century

6. change is constant
Clydebridge Steel Works, 1950
1998
Clean Air
(Scotland) M8 Junction 8, 1979
Act 1956
1999
2004
2012
1930s 1960s 1990s 2020s
Kingston, 1925 Hutchesontown, 1962
2012
1948
1994 - 2004
©capital collections
1927 1960 1974 1987 1999 2012
2 Billion 3 Billion 4 Billion 5 Billion 6 Billion 7 Billion

7. change is constant
Clydebridge Steel Works, 1950
1998
Clean Air
(Scotland) M8 Junction 8, 1979
Act 1956
1999
2004
2012
1930s 1960s 1990s 2020s
Kingston, 1925 Hutchesontown, 1962
2012
1948
1994 - 2004
©capital collections
1927 1960 1974 1987 1999 2012
2 Billion 3 Billion 4 Billion 5 Billion 6 Billion 7 Billion

8. a changing climate
Changes in temperature, precipitation and sea level
rise will affect all nations... resulting in both new risks
and as acting as a ‘risk multiplier’.

9. Local and national governments, organisations and
communities around the world are developing strategies to
help them respond to current climate change impacts and
prepare for the future.

10. London
“Not only do we have an environmental
duty to prepare London for changes in
climate, but there is also an
incontrovertible financial imperative to
take action. Put bluntly, by increasing the
resilience of our city to the changing
climate now, will save hard cash for
everyone: businesses, organisations and
individuals alike”

11. New York City
“Taking climate change adaptation action
now will limit damages and costs
through the coming decades and, in
many cases, can provide near-term
benefits including operational cost
savings and job creation”

12. Adaptation to Climate Change
Adaptation: The adjustment in economic, social or natural systems in
Adaptation: The adjustment in economic, social or natural systems in
response to actual or expected climatic change, to limit harmful
response to actual or expected climatic change, to limit harmful
consequences and exploit beneficial opportunities.
consequences and exploit beneficial opportunities.
Scotland’s Climate Change Adaptation Framework (2009)
Scotland’s Climate Change Adaptation Framework (2009)
The climate is changing and we need to be ready...
... adaptation means we prepare for the future – to deal with
threats and take advantage of opportunities.

13. What are we adapting to?
The changing climate...

14. Recent change in mean temperature
(1961 to 2006)

15. Recent change in rainfall
(1961 to 2006)

16. Rainfall has increased over the last 50 years... This increase is mostly due to
heavier rainfall on wet days (rather than more wet days)
Winter (1961-1995) Source: CRU info sheet 15
Change in
Change in Change in
Average Precipitation
Total Precipitation Number of Wet Days
On Wet Days
In London extreme rainfall events occurred once every 30
years before 1960 - and once every 6 years since then...
source: Lloyds (2010)

18. Are we ‘adapted’ to today’s climate?
Adaptation to Present Climate or Weather
Adaptation to Future Climate Change

19. What do we know about Scotland’s Future Climate?
Over the last few decades we have seen remarkable progress in our
understanding of climate – and how humans are changing it...
... and we continue to improve on this.
Scotland has access to world leading information – the
UK Climate Projections - about how our climate is likely
to change over this century.
http://ukclimateprojections.defra.gov.uk/

20. The key long-term climate change trends for Scotland are:
• Average summer is hotter and drier
• Average winter / autumn is milder and wetter
• Weather will remain variable (e.g. year-to-year), it may become more variable
We can also expect to see:
• Increase in summer heat waves, extreme temperatures and drought
• Increased frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events
• Reduced occurrence of frost and snowfall
• Sea level rise

21. Future Temperature

22. 2080s
UKCP09
Clyde River Basin – Mean Temperature
Probability
90% Level
2050s
Baseline (1961-1990) and UKCP09 Projected (2020s / 2050s / 2080s)
very likely
67%
2020s
High Emissions (A1FI) 50%
33%
10%
20
Baseline (1961-1990)
18 6
16 4
Mean Temperature (°C)
14 2
12 0
10
8
6
4
2
0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
winter spring summer autumn winter

23. 2080s
UKCP09
Clyde River Basin – Mean Temperature
Probability
90% Level
2050s
Baseline (1961-1990) and UKCP09 Projected (2020s / 2050s / 2080s)
very likely
67%
2020s
High Emissions (A1FI) 50%
33%
10%
20
Baseline (1961-1990)
18 South-East England
Baseline (1961-1990)
16 Clyde River Basin
Mean Temperature (°C)
Baseline (1961-1990)
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
winter spring summer autumn winter

24. What difference do a
few degrees make?
London was 3.0°C warmer than Glasgow
(in baseline 1961-1990)
+2.8°C
2050s (+1.3 to 4.4°C)
So summer temperatures may be more
similar to those in south of England by the
2050s...
+4.3°C
2080s (+2.4 to 6.8°C)
... and potentially more like those currently
experienced in Southern Europe (>4°C)
*The projected values are for summer mean
temperature under high emissions scenario

25. Future Rainfall

26. 2080s
UKCP09
Clyde River Basin – Mean Precipitation
Probability
90% Level
2050s
Baseline (1961-1990) and UKCP09 Projected (2020s / 2050s / 2080s)
very likely
66%
2020s
High Emissions (A1FI) 50%
33%
10%
300
By the 2080s: Baseline (1961-1990)
270
wetter winter
Mean Precipitation (mm/month)
very likely to be wetter
240 wetter (90% probability more than baseline) wetter autumn and winter
210 drier very unlikely to be drier
(10% probability less than the baseline)
180
drier summer
150
120 spring
90
60
30
0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
winter spring summer autumn winter

27. Changes in extreme rainfall

28. Sandy: New York is waking up to a new reality
“We are vulnerable. Anyone who thinks there is not a dramatic
change in weather patterns is denying reality. We have a new
reality and old systems.“ Andrew Cuomo, New York State Governor

29. Are we loading the ‘climate dice’ for extreme
weather events?

30. - please contact us -
www.adaptationscotland.org.uk
adaptationscotland@sniffer.org.uk
Adaptation Scotland Partnership: