Handling Risk This module discusses the three main risk approaches: Risk seeker “best shot” Risk Averter

1. Training for Adaptation
Developing Adaptation Strategies:
Handling Risk

2. Process Stage 2
Developing Adaptation Strategies: Handling Risk
Handling Risk
This module discusses the three main risk approaches:
• Risk seeker
• “best shot”
• Risk Averter
Climate Adaptation
C.Aall & D.Davies, 2012
Online Training Resource

3. Process Stage 2
Developing Adaptation Strategies: Handling Risk
Definition and Context
What is Risk?
Standard definition
Probability x potential threat = risk
The basic problem when assessing climate change risks
In most cases you do not know the probability for a specific climate change parameter at a specific
location and a specific year.
Thus; when talking about “risks” in a climate change vulnerability context, we are really talking about a
potential threat.
Climate Adaptation
C.Aall & D.Davies, 2012
Online Training Resource

4. Process Stage 2
Developing Adaptation Strategies: Handling Risk
3 Basic Approaches
• Risk seeker
-Taking high risks and thus saving money on
adaptation.
• “Best shot”
-The intermediate position between risk lover and
risk avoider
• Risk averter
-Reducing risks as much as possible by means of
adaptation.
Climate Adaptation
C.Aall & D.Davies, 2012
Online Training Resource

5. Process Stage 2
Developing Adaptation Strategies: Handling Risk
What should be your risk approach? Example from Norway
Equal probable Expected changes in precipitation in Sogn og
categories of climate Fjordane by 2050 in relation to 1961-90
projections
Low value - 5,8 %
Avarage +10,3 %
High value + 14,7 %
Risk averter: Suggested by the Norwegian Public Committee on Climate Change Adaptation.
Climate Adaptation
C.Aall & D.Davies, 2012
Online Training Resource

6. Process Stage 2
Developing Adaptation Strategies: Handling Risk
Risk-averting in practice
If you are planning a hydro-electric power plant, you should
focus on the climate scenario which predicts a reduction in
precipitation
If you are planning residential housing areas close to a river, you
should focus on the climate scenario which predicts an increase
in precipitation
Climate Adaptation
C.Aall & D.Davies, 2012
Online Training Resource