Forrester trends in_indian_e-commerce market

TRENDS IN INDIA’S eCOMMERCE MARKET

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2nd National Conference on e-Commerce 2012 and distributed to the Delegates of this
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FOR: eBusiness
and Channel
strategy
Professionals

Trends In India’s eCommerce Market
by Zia daniell Wigder and Manish Bahl, August 13, 2012

Key TaKeaWays
eCommerce in india is Growing Quickly
The eCommerce market in India is smaller than in other markets that Forrester
forecasts in Asia, but it is growing the fastest. Retailers have a sizeable opportunity
as the online population starts to spend more and buy more frequently online.
Today’s online shopper in india has inﬂated expectations
Similar to retailers in most emerging eCommerce markets, retailers in India are
doing whatever is necessary to drive consumers to shop online. Online shoppers
expect to see good deals online accompanied by free or very low-cost shipping.
Localization is Crucial
To be successful online in India, eBusiness professionals must understand local
eCommerce trends. Two key areas that companies must focus on in all markets -localized payment and fulfillment options -- are particularly essential in India.

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For eBusiness and Channel Strategy Professionals

August 23, 2012

How Online Retail In India Is Evolving Differently From Other Major Markets
by Zia Daniell Wigder and Manish Bahl
with Kelland Willis and Lily Varon

Why Read This Report
India’s eCommerce market is at an early stage but is expected to see huge growth over the next four to five
years. Over the past 12 months, venture capitalists have invested heavily in India’s eCommerce market,
new players have emerged, and the eCommerce ecosystem has developed, presenting a huge opportunity
for companies willing to work through some of the logistics and payments challenges in India. eBusiness
professionals with an interest in the online retail market in India must understand how India differs from
other leading eCommerce markets and where hurdles do and don’t exist. In this report, we outline some of
these local nuances and explain the key trends shaping eCommerce in India.

Table Of Contents

Notes & Resources

2 India’s eCommerce Market Is Small But Will
Grow Strongly

Forrester interviewed AaramShop,
BindaasBargain, eBay, Flipkart.com, Helion
Venture Partners, IndoUS Venture Partners,
Myntra.com, Snapdeal.com, Sonata
Software, and Symantec for this report.

The eCommerce Market In India Is Poised For
Rapid Growth
Online Consumers In India Have Specific
Demands
5 Payment Options And Fulfillment Are The
Key To Localization
eBusinesses Must Offer A Variety Of Payment
Types
Logistics Are One Of The Largest Hurdles For
eBusinesses In India

Related Research Documents
Asia Pacific Online Retail Forecast, 2011 To
2016
April 16, 2012
Establishing A Global Direct Online Sales
Footprint
January 26, 2012

recommendations

8 A Flexible Strategy Is The Key To Success In
India’s eCommerce Market
9 Supplemental Material

© 2012, Forrester Research, Inc. All rights reserved. Unauthorized reproduction is strictly prohibited. Information is based on best available
resources. Opinions reflect judgment at the time and are subject to change. Forrester®, Technographics®, Forrester Wave, RoleView, TechRadar,
and Total Economic Impact are trademarks of Forrester Research, Inc. All other trademarks are the property of their respective companies. To
purchase reprints of this document, please email clientsupport@forrester.com. For additional information, go to www.forrester.com.


2


India’s eCommerce market is small but will grow Strongly
An increasing number of global companies are eyeing the rapidly growing eCommerce market
in India as improvements in infrastructure are made and India’s economy grows. As the world’s
11th-largest economy (and fourth-largest emerging economy after BRIC peers China, Brazil, and
Russia), India is starting to appear on eBusiness organizations’ lists of key international markets.1
While Internet penetration is low at just 10% of the overall population, the government is building
infrastructure to improve and enable connectivity in metropolitan and rural areas.2 And with the
2001 census showing an estimated English-speaking population of 125 million, India currently
appeals to global companies looking to sell online using their English-language websites.3
Currently, shoppers in metropolitan India are driving eCommerce: These consumers are primarily
buying travel, consumer electronics, and books online.4 And although spending per online buyer
remains low, some 59% of online consumers in metropolitan India already make purchases online
at least monthly.5 Consumers in nonmetropolitan areas will also help fuel growth; unlike online
consumers in cities, they are more likely to shop online for goods that are unavailable at local stores.
The eCommerce Market In India Is Poised For Rapid Growth
eCommerce revenues in India will increase by more than five times by 2016, jumping from US$1.6
billion in 2012 to US$8.8 billion in 2016 (see Figure 1).6 While US$8.8 billion is still less than other
countries in Asia Pacific, such as China and Japan, India’s CAGR is much higher than any other
country that Forrester forecasts in the region.7 The following factors are influencing this growth:

■ Venture capitalists are bullish on eCommerce growth. In 2011, venture capitalists invested

US$177 million in eCommerce in India — more than recent estimates of eCommerce investment
in Russia in 2011, for example.8 A partner at one of India’s top early- and mid-stage venture funds
noted that India’s online population — which is largely upper and middle class — has moved well
beyond the initial stage of online shopping. Another venture capital firm in India that is investing
heavily in eCommerce stated that it is confident that consumers in both urban and nonurban
areas are ready to shop online. Investment firms are also diversifying to include retail sectors that
have faced challenges offline: Women’s lingerie, for example, is expected to grow quickly online,
where women can purchase anonymously.

■ Online grocery shopping is starting to appeal to the upper- and middle-class consumer.

Grocery, traditionally a category that shifts online in the later stages of eCommerce development,
has started to move online and is doing well with the middle- and upper-class online shopper in
metropolitan India. Revenues are small today but poised to grow: MyGrahak.com, for example,
expects to have a turnover of US$179.1 million by 2015.9 The site currently has only 22,000
registered users, but sign-up rates are increasing by 25% per month. In 2012, the firm is focusing
its efforts on raising more capital to double warehouse capacity and improve logistics.

© 2012, Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited

August 13, 2012


3


■ eCommerce is expanding into nonmetropolitan India. eCommerce retailers in India

are expanding their offerings to the online population outside metropolitan India and are
investing heavily in the infrastructure to support these cities.10 Online apparel retailer Myntra.
com is already seeing demand for its products outside metropolitan India: 50% of its sales
are outside India’s 10 biggest cities. To widen their reach, for example, multiple retailers are
building warehouses outside central locations; testing shipping options that work in rural areas;
offering payment options like cash on delivery (COD) that provide options for the unbanked;
and subsequently marketing these to semi-urban and rural consumers. Additionally, retailers
often view urban and rural users as having two distinct goals: Many of the former shop online
because they have more money but can’t access the products they want (such as unique or
imported items), while many of the latter shop online for things they need (such as shoes) but
can’t access or can’t access cheaply where they live.

■ Large retailers are looking to build an online presence. Some brick-and-mortar retail

operations are also recognizing the opportunity online in India. For example, Croma, one of
India’s largest consumer electronics stores, moved online to sell its full range of products. And
global multibrand, multichannel retailers like Walmart that are currently restricted by India’s
foreign direct investment (FDI) laws are anxiously following developments to take advantage of
opportunities as they arise.11

■ Social media and mobile are helping accelerate eCommerce adoption. The social and mobile
trends that are prominent worldwide are also underway in India. With 51 million Facebook
users (5 million of whom joined in the past three months alone), India is ranked as Facebook’s
third-largest audience in the world after the US and Brazil.12 Social networks have not been
major drivers of eCommerce transactions in other markets, yet these sites play an important
role in driving consumers online and getting them to engage with brands.13 And in mobile,
India has close to 1 billion wireless subscribers: As of May 2012, the Telecom Regulatory
Authority of India reported more than 929 million wireless subscribers in the country.14 While
3G penetration today is estimated to be in the low single digits and users complain of low
network speeds, mobile will be a key tool in helping users connect in a market where overall
Internet penetration remains low.15


August 13, 2012


4


Figure 1 Forecast: India Online Retail Revenues (B2C And C2C), 2012 And 2016
US$8.8 billion

US$1.6 billion

2012

2016

Source: Forrester Research Online Retail Forecast, 2011 To 2016 (Asia Paciﬁc)
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Source: Forrester Research, Inc.

Online Consumers In India Have Specific Demands
As the eCommerce market in India develops, so will its consumers. Retailers should be aware that:

■ Consumers expect the returns process to be seamless and convenient. Traditionally, the

shopping culture in India is not returns-friendly. However, online shoppers have come to expect
the option to return items purchased online, and retailers have made doing this convenient — at
their own cost. One of the top online retailers in India, for example, has gone so far as to offer an
at-home pickup service for returned goods. The cost is high, but the retailer considers this option
necessary to develop consumer trust and confidence in the retailer. While such at-home pickup
for returns is typical in other emerging markets, markets tend to shift from this labor-intensive,
often inconvenient process to prepaid return labels as the eCommerce ecosystem develops.

■ Free door-to-door shipping is commonplace. Like eCommerce retailers in other emerging

markets such as Brazil, it is standard for eCommerce retailers in India to offer free, relatively
quick delivery of online orders. HomeShop18, for example, offers free shipping for the majority
of its items and delivers within five days. MyGrahak offers free 48-hour delivery, but it will
deliver within 24 hours for an extra US$0.88. To compete in India’s nascent eCommerce market,
online retailers have little choice but to offer the same convenience and low cost that their local
counterparts are offering, a situation that venture capitalists have identified as unsustainable in
the long term. While retailers cite free shipping as an essential first step to drive customers to
shop online and win customer loyalty, companies investing in the space must consider how long
they can sustain this type of offering.


August 13, 2012


5


■ Consumers have been trained to expect low prices. In addition to the challenges of offering

free shipping, retailers also face hurdles in matching the highly discounted prices that leading
online retailers have traditionally offered on their sites.16 New entrants have struggled to keep
up: Upstart Taggle.com ceased operations in late 2011, for example, citing its unwillingness to
engage in a price war with retailers selling below cost to gain customers.17

Payment options and Fulfillment are the key to localization
In India, as in all other markets, payments and fulfillment are two of the areas that retailers must
most heavily localize.
eBusinesses Must Offer A Variety Of Payment Types
In India, online payments present multiple challenges. Even those companies that offer a variety of
localized payment methods can hit challenges with the infrastructure: Payment gateways, for
example, are notorious for being inconsistent, with failure rates as high as 35%.18 However, retailers
can take a series of steps to ensure they are offering the payment types that most appeal to consumers
today. By doing so, these businesses position themselves to capitalize on growing online spending as
infrastructure issues are addressed. eBusiness professionals must keep the following in mind:

■ Local partnerships are essential to localized payments. As in most markets, credit and debit

card payments dominate in India: 44% of online buyers cite having paid with a credit card, and
41% have paid with a debit card.19 Online bank transfers are also a common online payment
method: In the past three months, 24% of online buyers in India used one to pay for a purchase
made online (see Figure 2).20 Local retailers offer the option to use a bank transfer with a long
list of partner banks. These payment options are necessary to offer consumer convenience but
will pose a challenge for non-Indian companies; there are government restrictions that keep
non-local players from offering local payment solutions. Symantec, one of the top Western
security software retailers in India, overcame that problem by linking its site to Flipkart.com,
thereby giving customers without an international credit card the option to purchase with a
localized payment.

■ In India, COD remains too big to ignore. Local players in India offer a variety of payment

options (see Figure 3). Like most emerging markets, cash on delivery, most commonly referred to
as COD, is a popular option — with 23% of online shoppers in metropolitan India choosing to
pay for online purchases with cash.21 COD is essential to reaching first-time shoppers who fear
sharing their information over the Internet and shoppers who don’t use widely accepted cards
and banks. Myntra, for example, sees 60% of its transactions paid for with COD. While COD can
be a great way to acquire new customers, return rates on these orders can be staggering. In India,
venture capitalists report COD return rates of up to 25% in some categories.22 Indeed, COD
return rates tend to be much higher than when a consumer pays online: The COO of a logistics


August 13, 2012


6


company serving the Middle East and South Asia recently cited return rates seven times higher
on purchases made via COD than via online payment methods.23

■ COD can mean more than just cash on delivery. To appeal to those who prefer to pay with

cards, retailers in India have started to offer “card on delivery,” also (and confusingly) known as
COD. With this payment option, a courier brings a mobile point-of-sale (POS) machine to the
shopper’s door to accept payment.24 Online retailers in other emerging markets also offer such
options: Amazon.com, for example, offers this option to online shoppers in China.

Figure 2 Payment Options In India Cater To Consumers’ Payment Preferences
“Which of the following payment methods have you used
in the past three months to pay for products you bought online?”
Credit card

44%

Debit card
Online bank transfer
Cash on delivery

41%
24%
23%

Base: 1,167 Indian online adults (18+ and online monthly or more) who bought products online
(multiple responses accepted)
Source: Asia Paciﬁc Technographics® Online Survey, Q3 2011
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August 13, 2012


7


Figure 3 Localized Payment Options Are A Must In India

Source: Snapdeal.com
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Logistics Are One Of The Largest Hurdles For eBusinesses In India
As in most emerging markets, the infrastructure to support eCommerce in India remains at the
development stage. Deliveries to remote areas can require retailers to piece together multiple
logistics partners. No full-service eCommerce solution provider exists for companies interested in
outsourcing all parts of their offering in India. To overcome these challenges, retailers are coming up
with solutions to problems as they arise:

■ Larger online retailers are building out in-house delivery solutions. For example, leading

online retailer Flipkart solved its fulfillment issues with an in-house delivery department. In
a move similar to online retailers in other emerging markets — for example, 360buy in China
and Ozon in Russia — the retailer uses its own trucks and employees to fulfill orders to ensure
customers receive superior service. While not an option for all companies, smaller retailers may
ultimately be able to take advantage of the networks of big players: Russia’s Ozon, for example, is
starting to make its logistics network available to smaller eBusinesses for a fee.25


August 13, 2012


8


■ Effective fulfillment solutions often require multiple couriers. The lack of a wholly developed
eCommerce ecosystem and underdeveloped towns require retailers to creatively fulfill an order.
If a retailer’s usual shipping method will not get a package to a customer, it will use more than
one shipping method. While India Post, FedEx, and DHL International do deliver in India, our
interviews revealed that online retailers frequently rely on couriers to deliver the last mile. For
example, they send the package using FedEx or DHL to the nearest package distribution center
and hire a local courier to pick up the package and deliver it to the customer’s door, frequently
on a bike. In rural areas, where even capturing a standard address for a consumer can be
challenging, bike delivery is often the most convenient option.

R e c o m m e n d at i o n s

a flexible strategy is the key to succeSS in india’s ecommerce
market
eCommerce “norms” are still being established in India, where the eCommerce market is just
developing and experienced eBusiness professionals are still hard to find. To offer your customers
the best experience — one that reflects your brand’s service level — Forrester suggests the following:

■ eBusinesses must be willing to work with many different partners. In India, no single

player today can handle all aspects of the eCommerce business on behalf of major retailers
or brands. Instead, eBusinesses will need to manage every step of the eBusiness operation —
from site design to fulfillment solutions to employee training. Leading eCommerce sites in
India today tend to build their capabilities rather than buy, although that scenario is likely to
change as more global players with existing vendor partners enter the market. eBusinesses
entering the Indian market must be aware of the need to work with a variety of partners and
be willing to work through the challenges of integrating multiple solutions.

■ Savvy businesses will make mobile a part of the eCommerce mix from the start. While

the mobile opportunity in India is nascent, it is undeniably going to be a critical part of
how consumers interact online. eBusinesses should take advantage of this growing trend by
including a mobile website as part of their offering — ensuring that it is accessible on both
feature phones and smartphones, given the relatively low penetration of smartphones in
India today.

■ Multibrand retailers should be ready to launch as soon as FDI constraints are lifted. FDI

regulations currently keep multibrand retailers from establishing a business in India: Amazon.
com, for example, altered the business model it used when entering other markets and
launched in India with an online shopping service, Junglee.com. While it is impossible to
know exactly when and if the FDI restrictions will be relaxed, foreign eBusinesses with an
interest in India should map out their potential offerings in India now so that they can move


August 13, 2012


9


quickly when this type of investment is allowed. It will be hard for slow movers to get a piece
of the action, given that so many global companies already have their sights set on the market.

■ Be prepared to move beyond English to differentiate longer term. In our research, we did

not come across a single major site in a language other than English. While it is a safe bet
that online buyers in India will predominantly be English speakers in the short term, global
businesses often overestimate the number of consumers in India who speak and understand
English fluently. Global media sites have already taken notice of India’s diverse online
population: Yahoo, for example, provides news in Bengali, Hindi, Malayalam, Marathi, and
Tamil; MSN also offers a multilingual site. eBusiness leaders should consider multilingual
websites as a potential long-term option for differentiating their offerings and appealing to
consumers who may understand English but prefer a local language.

Supplemental MATERIAL
Methodology
Forrester Research conducted the Asia Pacific Technographics Online Survey, Q3 2011 in July
2011 of 7,085 consumers ages 18 and older in South Korea, Australia, Japan, metropolitan
China (including Hong Kong, Shanghai, Beijing, Guangzhou, Chengdu, Wuhan, and Xian), and
metropolitan India (including Mumbai, New Delhi, Kolkata, Bangalore, Chennai, Hyderabad,
and Ahmadabad). Forrester weighted the data by age, gender, and geographical distribution to be
representative of the adult population in each country or region surveyed. The samples in South
Korea, Australia, and Japan are geographically representative of the adult population according to
the latest country-specific census. The samples in India and China are representative of the urban
population, with a heavier weight attributed to these countries’ largest urban areas. The sample in
India is representative only of the SEC ABC groups. Respondents in India completed the survey
either in English or a native language: Marathi, Hindi, Bengali, Kannada, or Tamil. The survey for all
other countries was administered in the country’s or territory’s official language.
The forecast data in Figure 1 was drawn from the Forrester Research Online Retail Forecast, 2011 To
2016 (Asia Pacific). As part of the forecast modeling, Forrester develops comprehensive historical
and base-year market size estimates based on a variety of sources, including public financial
documents, executive interviews, Forrester’s proprietary primary consumer and executive research,
and analysis of the Internet traffic database. All of Forrester’s forecasts are designed by a dedicated
team of forecasting analysts who build the models, conduct extensive industry research, and manage
the process of formally building consensus among Forrester’s analysts. Forecast analysts have
backgrounds in investment banking, management consulting, and market research, where they
developed extensive experience with industry and company forecasting. For more information on
Forrester’s ForecastView offering, including access to additional details and metrics not included in
this report, please contact us at data@forrester.com.


August 13, 2012


10


Companies Interviewed For This Report
AaramShop

IndoUS Venture Partners

BindaasBargain

Myntra.com

eBay

Snapdeal.com

Flipkart.com

Sonata Software

Helion Venture Partners

Symantec

ENDNOTES
1

Source: Annalyn Censky, “India’s economic growth slows sharply,” CNNMoney, May 31, 2012 (http://
money.cnn.com/2012/05/31/news/economy/india-gdp/index.htm).

2

Source: Debjoy Sengupta, “India achieves a 10.2% internet penetration rate,” The Economic Times, April
10, 2012 (http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2012-04-10/news/31318824_1_internet-userspenetration-number-of-facebook-users).

3

Source: “Indiaspeak: English is our 2nd language,” The Times Of India, March 14, 2010 (http://articles.
timesofindia.indiatimes.com/2010-03-14/india/28117934_1_second-language-speakers-urdu).

4

Source: Asia Pacific Technographics Online Survey, Q3 2011.

5


6

For more information on the growth of the online retail market in India, see the April 16, 2012, “Asia Pacific
Online Retail Forecast, 2011 To 2016” report.

7

For more information on the growth of the online retail market in India, see the April 16, 2012, “Asia Pacific
Online Retail Forecast, 2011 To 2016”report.

8

Source: “Time for shakeup in India’s e-commerce,” The Times Of India, February 21, 2012 (http://articles.
timesofindia.indiatimes.com/2012-02-21/services-apps/31082650_1_e-commerce-consolidation-venturecapital).
eCommerce related projects attracted the most investment in 2011. This sector saw 33 deals raising
approximately US$107 million in investment. Source: “MoneyTree Venture Capital Market Navigator,” PwC
(http://www.pwc.ru/en_RU/ru/technology/assets/MoneyTree_Russia_2011_eng_final.pdf).

9

Source: Steven Millward, “Ahead of India’s E-Commerce Boom, MyGrahak Hopes To Raise $3.5 Million
This Year,” Tech in Asia, June 14, 2012 (http://www.techinasia.com/mygrahak-investment-plans/).

10

Metropolitan cities are broken down as follows by IAMAI, the Internet and Mobile Association of India.
The top four most populous cities in India are Delhi, Mumbai, Kolkata, and Chennai (top metros). The next
four most populous cities in India are Bangalore, Hyderabad, Pune, and Ahmedabad (other four metros).
Cities with a population of more than 1 million but less than the metros are small metros. Non-metros are
towns with a population between 0.5 million and 1 million. Small towns are towns with a population of less


August 13, 2012


11


than 0.5 million.
11

Source: Rajesh Roy and Paul Beckett, “India Takes Steps to Open Economy,” The Wall Street Journal, July 17,
2012 (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303754904577532520602068292.html).

12

Source: “Facebook Statistics By Country,” Socialbakers (http://www.socialbakers.com/facebook-statistics/).

13

For more information on how Facebook affects eCommerce, see the April 7, 2011, “Will Facebook Ever
Drive eCommerce?” report.

14

Source: “Highlights On Telecom Subscription Data as on 31st May 2012,” Telecom Regulatory Authority Of
India, July 4, 2012 (http://www.trai.gov.in/WriteReadData/PressRealease/Document/PR-TSD-May12.pdf).

15

Source: Shrenik Avlani, “3G fails to strike the right note with users,” Hindustan Times, February 12, 2012
(http://www.hindustantimes.com/News-Feed/SectorsInfotech/3G-fails-to-strike-the-right-note-with-users/
Article1-810396.aspx).

16

Source: Rohin Dharmakumar, “Can Flipkart Deliver?” Forbes India, July 6, 2012 (http://forbesindia.com/
article/boardroom/can-flipkart-deliver/33240/0).

17

Source: Swati, “Indian ecommerce site Taggle.com shuts down its operations,” Buzzom, December 6, 2011
(http://www.buzzom.com/2011/12/indian-ecommerce-site-taggle-com-shuts-down/).

18

Source: Anshoo Sharma, “Emerging Trends In Indian E-Commerce: On Logistics, No Poach, Payment
Gateways & More,” MediaNama, May 30, 2012 (http://www.medianama.com/2012/05/223-emergingtrends-in-indian-e-commerce-on-logistics-no-poach-payment-gateways-more/).

19


20


21


22

Source: Anshoo Sharma, “Emerging Trends In Indian E-Commerce: On Logistics, No Poach, Payment
Gateways & More,” MediaNama, May 30, 2012. (http://www.medianama.com/2012/05/223-emergingtrends-in-indian-e-commerce-on-logistics-no-poach-payment-gateways-more/).

23

Source: Nancy Messieh, “E-Commerce in the Middle East grew 300% in the past year,” The Next Web, June
3, 2012 (http://thenextweb.com/me/2012/06/03/e-commerce-in-the-middle-east-grew-300-in-the-pastyear/?awesm=tnw.to_1Ef5T&utm_campaign=social%20media&utm_medium=share%20button&utm_
source=Twitter&utm_content=E-Commerce%20in%20the%20Middle%20East%20grew%20300%%20
in%20the%20past%20year).

24

Source: Willis Wee, “MyGrahak.com Rolls Out Card on Delivery Service. It’s Not a Square Though,” Tech in
Asia, March 19, 2012 (http://www.techinasia.com/mygrahak-card-on-delivery/).

25

Source: Sarah Lacy, “Ozon: Surviving the Long Winter of the Russian Internet,” PandoDaily, March 31, 2012
(http://pandodaily.com/2012/03/31/ozon-surviving-the-long-winter-of-the-russian-internet/).


August 13, 2012

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Power, Education, Legal Reforms, Real Estate, Rural

Development etc.. The Chamber has its international offices in China, Sharjah,
Moscow, UK and USA. ASSOCHAM has also signed MoU partnership with Business
Chambers in more than 75 countries.

Mr. D. S. Rawat
Secretary General
ASSOCHAM
Ph: 011-46550555
Email: d.s.rawat@assocham.com

Forrester trends in_indian_e-commerce market

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