This document discusses steps in the decision making process and types of decisions. It is composed of three sections by Group Members Imran Muzamil, Fiaz Riaz, and M.Umer. Imran outlines the typical steps as identifying the problem, criteria, weighting criteria, developing alternatives, choosing an alternative, implementing, and evaluating. Fiaz discusses rationality, bounded rationality, intuition, structured vs unstructured problems, and decisions under certainty, risk, and uncertainty. M.Umer defines decision making biases and errors, giving examples like overconfidence, availability, representative, escalation of commitment, and selectivity biases and the randomness error.
6. Identify the Problem:
When making a decision a person
first needs to identify and define
the problem or conflict.
7. Identify Decision Criteria:
When a problem identified,
the decision criteria important
to resolving the problem must
be identified. That is, managers
must determine what is
relevant in making decision.
8. Allocation of Weights to criteria:
If the relevant criteria are not
equally important, the decision
maker must weight the items
in order to give them the
correct priority in the
decision.
9. Development of Alternatives:
The fourth step in decision making
process requires the decision
maker to list viable alternative
that could resolve. The problem
this is the step where a decision
maker needs to be creative.
10. Choose One alternative:
After making all the alternatives,
the next step in planning or in
decision making is to evaluate
these alternatives. Evaluation is
required in order to select the
best alternative for implementation.
11. Implementation of the Alternative:
After choosing best alternative
decision in to action by conveying
it to those effected and getting their
commitment to it.
12. Evaluation of Decision effectiveness:
The last step the decision making
Process involve evaluating the outcome
or result of the decision to see
if the problem is resolve.
14. Rationality:
A type of decision making in which choices are logical
consistent and maximize value.
Bounded Rationality:
Decision making that's rational but limited(bounded)
by an individuals ability to process information.
Intuition:
Making decision on the basis of experience, and
accumulated judgment.
15. Structured Problem:
A straightforward, familiar and easily defined
problem.
Problem Decision:
A repetitive decision that can be handled
using a routine approach.
16. Unstructured Problem:
A problem that is new or unusual and for which
information is incomplete.
Non Programmed Decisions:
A unique and nonrecurring decision that requires a
custom made solution.
17. Certainty:
Implies perfect information. All relevant information to
the problem is known.
Risk:
Implies partial information. Some of all the relevant
information to the problem is stochastic.
Uncertainty:
Implies incomplete information. Some of all the
relevant information to the problem is missing.
19. Decision Making Bias:
Decision making bias is giving a undue
influence to any one in between two equal
things.
Decision Making Error:
In Decision making error is a occurrence of
any thing with out knowing.
20. Overconfidence Bias:
In overconfidence bias a manager think that he will do
every thing but real thing some time opposite.
Immediate Gratification:
Immediate Gratification describes a manager want to
immediate reward.
He will prefers Rs.100 of today other then Rs.200 of
future.
21. Availability Bias:
In Availability bias a manager to base their judgment
on information that is readily available to him.
E.g. A person fear from Air travel and also car driving.
Media report show much more attention on aero plan
crash is 10% and 8% car accident & he will understate
car accident and travel in car.
Representative Bias:
In representative bias a person see another person's
representative performance and predict that he can also this
do this work.
22. Escalation Bias:
Escalation of commitment refers to staying with a
decision even when there is clear evidence that is
wrong.
Selective Perception:
When decision maker selectively organize and
interpret a decision on the base of his perception.
23. Randomness Error:
Most of the managers believes that they have
some control over the world and destiny. And
if we undoutly control a good part of event
but truths is world always having Random
events .
And our tendency to believe we can predict
future event.