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Determining the future course of action




Process
Forward looking
Pervasive-at all levels


Long term vs Short term









Objectives
Planning premises
Alternatives
Evaluating alternatives
Choice of alternatives
Supporting plans
Establishing sequence of activities
Commitment to a particular course of action
believed necessary to achieve specific results



Standing - policies, rules, objectives
Single use – budget, targets
Long term vision of what organisation seeks to
do and why does it exist.
Focus is external
End results towards which activities are aimed
Good objectives should have SMART features:
S- specific
M-measurable
A- achievable
R-realistic
T-time bound

Management by Objectives (MBO)
Strategies are complex plans for bringing
organisations from one position to other in
future period (determined in light of external
environment)

Policies are general statements which provide
guidance in decision making
-Series of related tasks
-Establish a method for handling activities
Policies provide direction, procedure tell how
to do





Based on facts
Stability
Flexibility
Minimum in number


Prescribed guidelines for conduct, action.


Planned actions integrated into
unity, designed to bring about stated
objective




Corporate - top management
Tactical
- middle management
Operational – lower management




List your five most important personal
objectives? Are they long term or short term?
Are the objectives verifiable?
Method

Advantages

Disadvantages

Estimation

People in position estimate the
number of people the firm will
require in the next yr.

Incorporates knowledge of
corporate plans in making
estimates

Expert
opinion

Panel of experts forecast HR requirements for particular future business scenarios.
For this method, there may be a single expert, or estimates of several experts may be
pooled together

Delphi

Experts go through several
rounds of estimates with no
face-to-face meeting

Incorporates future plans
& knowledge of experts
related to mkt., industry &
technical development

Subjective, time
consuming & may
ignore data

Group
brainstor
ming

Face-to-face discussion based
on multiple assumptions about
future business direction

Generates lot of ideas

Does not lead to
conclusion

Nominal
group
technique

Face-to-face discussion

Group exchanges facilitate
plans

Subjective which may
ignore data

Simple
averaging

Simple averaging of viewpoints

Diverse view points taken

Extremes views are
masked when
averaged

May be subjective

17
Method

Advantages

Disadvantages

Trend
analysis
&
projectio
n

Based on past relationship between a business factor related to
employment & employment level itself

Simple
long-run
trend
analysis

Extrapolates past
relationship between
volume of business activity
& employment levels into
the future

Recognizes linkage
between employment
& business activity

Assumes that
volume of business
activity of firm for
forecast period will
continue at same
rate as previous yrs
Ignores multiplicity
of factors
influencing
employment levels

Regressi
on
analysis

Regresses employment
needs onto key variables

Data driven
Uses multiple business
factors

Difficult to use &
apply

18


A decision is an act of choice by which an
individual or organisation selects one
position or action from several alternatives



Strategic decisions
Tactical decisions









Specific objectives
Identification of problems: diagnosis, analysis
Search for alternatives
Evaluation of alternatives
Choice
Action
Results


Certainty
-using deterministic model



Risk (information insufficient)
◦ -Priori probability (tossing coin)
◦ -Empirical probability
◦ -Subjective probability


Uncertainty
◦
◦
◦
◦

-maximax criterion
-maximin criterion
-Minimax criterion (minimising regret)
-Insufficient reason criterion 9equal probability is
assigned to each event)





Operations Research
Decision Tree
Game Theory
Queuing Theory

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Planning