El documento describe el cambio climático y su impacto en Centroamérica, así como el papel de la sociedad civil en abordar este problema. Explica cómo el cambio climático afecta negativamente la región a través de eventos extremos y vulnerabilidad. También analiza marcos internacionales como la Convención Marco de las Naciones Unidas sobre el Cambio Climático y la Estrategia Regional de Cambio Climático de Centroamérica. Finalmente, destaca los diálogos y plataformas de la sociedad civil para incidir en
17. Fig 2. Gráfico de dispersión del cambio de temperatura media anual (TMP) y precipitación (PCP) para los años 2010, 2020, 2030, 2040, 2050, 2075 y 2100(de izquierda a derecha), considerando el escenario de emisión B2-MES. B2-MES
18. Fig 9. Variación espacial de la lluvia media anual, correspondiente a la climatología del 2100 del escenario A2-ASF .
28. Y está distribuido en forma desigual.. . 22.5 millón expuestos cada ano GDP cap. US$31,267 HDI =0.953 Mortalidad = 1 16 millón expuestos cada ano GDP cap. US$5,137 HDI = 0.771 Mortalidad = 17
43. Estrategia Regional de Cambio Climático: Un mandato para la participación de sociedad civil
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50. Diálogos y Plataformas de Sociedad Civil Un marco para la acción ante el Cambio Climático
51. Espacios de incidencia ERCC y CBM como procesos regionales. Mesa Regional de CC. Foro Regional de Sociedad Civil y CC. Sectores como: FECATRANS, FERCA, ACICAFOC, CICA, Cámaras de la Construcción, Sindicalistas, CM-UICN, CC-SICA. Octubre 09. Acompañamiento a los procesos previos a la COP 15. Rendición de cuentas de los puntos focales de CC. Eventos paralelos de Sociedad Civil en Copenhague Nivel local Nivel nacional Nivel regional Nivel global Proyectos locales de gestión de riesgo, de desarrollo rural (agricultura, forestería, agroforestería). Proyectos REDD.. Actividades de capacitación, sensibilización. Ordenanzas o decretos municipales. Estrategias y políticas nacionales de CC. Talleres Nacionales de Sociedad Civil. Talleres de Capacitación. Procesos de discusión REDD. Mesas Nacionales de Concertación Forestal. Mesas de Concertación Rural. Foros Sectoriales. Puntos Focales CC .
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Notas do Editor
The global climate system has a long response time to changes in the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. As a result, global warming is expected to continue in the near term even in an unrealistic scenario in which immediate measures were to be taken to maintain those GHG concentrations constant. GHG emissions, however, are as of yet not showing any clear signs of slowing down. Depending on the specific assumptions adopted with regard to global demographic, economic and technological trends, IPCC predicts that global GHG emissions will increase by 25% to 90% between 2000 and 2030 if no additional climate change mitigation policies are implemented. As a result, under most of the “business as usual” scenarios considered by IPCC, by 2050, the planet would be 1.3 to 1.7oC warmer than at the end of the 20th century. By 2100 global temperatures would reach between 1.1 and 6.4oC above that baseline. The above projections, however, are probably on the conservative side. Indeed, recent observations of actual emissions are proving to be higher than those predicted by IPCC, even in its most pessimistic scenarios (figure in slide)
Across the 12 countries, the number of weather related reports has more than doubled since 1980, and housing damage has quintupled. The rise in both reports and losses is particularly steep since 1990 and more and more areas are reporting losses. This means that more hazard events are affecting wider areas and there is increasing exposure of assets such as housing to those events. While the sample is not globally representative, there is no reason to believe that these countries are exceptions to a global trend. Critically, about 97% of these local level loss reports are weather-related and the number of loss reports associated with flooding and heavy rains is increasing faster than all other hazard types.
The report has identified two different but inter-related patterns and trends in disaster risk. Firstly, many attributes of risk, such as mortality and direct economic loss, are intensively concentrated in a very small portion of the earth’s surface and manifest infrequently in a very small-number of mega disasters. For example, between 1975 and 2008, 78.2% of disaster mortality was concentrated in only 23 events. This intensive concentration of risk can be visualised in both absolute and relative terms. Large countries, such as China India, Bangladesh and Indonesia have the most population at risk. But, small island developing states (SIDS), such as Dominica and Vanuatu, and other smaller countries have the largest proportion of their population and economies at risk. Overall, the most high risk countries are those such as Myanmar and Bangladesh that have high absolute and relative risk
These concentrations of risk, however, are not evenly spread. Developing countries concentrate a hugely disproportionate share of the risk. T he map shows cyclone mortality risk in Japan and Philippines. In Japan, approximately 22.5 million people are exposed annually, compared to 16 million people in the Philippines. However, the estimated annual death toll from cyclones in the Philippines is almost 17 times greater than that of Japan. Tropical cyclone mortality risk in low-income countries is approximately 200 times higher than in OECD countries, for similar numbers exposed. While absolute economic loss is concentrated in developed countries, poorer countries experience higher losses in relation to the size of their economies. In the case of floods, for example, South Asia experiences approximately 15 times more economic losses with respect to the size of its GDP, than the OECD countries.
The second risk pattern becomes visible when risk is viewed at the local level. As the right hand map of Sri Lanka show, 90% of the mortality and 86% of the direct economic loss is concentrated intensively in quite a small area, mainly affected by the 2004 tsunami. These are the losses that make news headlines and capture the attention of the international community. In contrast, as the left hand map shows, 56% of the low-intensity damages to housing, local infrastructure, crops and livestock, are extensively spread over 9,780 loss reports. These losses are invisible globally. Across 12 Asian and Latin American (*) countries, there are an average of 9 such loss reports per day and more than 82% of the local governments report losses, meaning that disaster loss is far more widespread than was previously thought. ( Argentina, Bolivia, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Iran, India (States of Orissa and Tamil Nadu), Mexico, Nepal, Peru, Sri Lanka and Venezuela)
As the map shows more than 1.9 million houses were damaged in Mexico since 1980, 72% of these in recurrent weather related events. Across the 12 countries, 34% of the economic cost of disasters in the housing sector was associated with such low-intensity loss reports, as well as 57% of the damage to schools, 65% of the damage to hospitals and 89% of the damage to roads. These losses disproportionately affect poor communities. In Mexico, the most socially and economically deprived municipalities tended to lose the highest proportion of their housing stock in disasters, a finding echoed in other countries such as India and Sri Lanka. Furthermore, disasters lead to reduced income and consumption, particularly in the poorest households and can increase poverty and reduce human development. Disaster impacts produce other poverty outcomes as well. The empirical evidence shows that school enrolment tends to fall and children may grow at a slower rate due to nutritional shortfalls following disasters. These outcomes may be long-term and recovery slow or difficult , particularly in rural areas, where p oor households often lack the assets necessary to buffer disaster losses and are rarely covered by insurance or social protection.
The report has identified three drivers that underlie these risk patterns. The first is deficient urban and local governance. Disaster risk is increasingly urban. By 2010 it is projected that 73% of the world’s urban population and most of its largest cities will be in developing countries. Many city governments have not been able to provide safe land for housing, adequate infrastructure and services for their poorer citizens and a planning and regulatory framework to manage the associated risks. As a result, urban growth in developing countries has been largely absorbed through the expansion of informal settlements. Approximately one billion people worldwide live in these settlements and numbers are growing by approximately 25 million per year. The expansion of informal settlements is closely associated with rapidly increasing weather-related losses in urban areas. Urbanisation generates flood hazard due to increasing peak run-off during storms, the settlement of low-lying areas and a chronic underinvestment in drainage. This map shows flood loss reports in the city of Cali, Colombia since the 1950s. The centrifugal expansion of reported floods has mirrored the expansion of informal settlements in the city.
The Millennium Assessment found that the supply of approximately 60% of the ecosystem services were in decline, while consumption of more than 80% of the services was found to be increasing. In other words, the flow of most ecosystem services is increasing at the same time as the total stock is decreasing. It was also identified that ecosystems have been modified to increase provisioning services, while regulating ecosystem services, have declined. Mangroves have been destroyed to create shrimp ponds, increasing storm surge hazard, wetlands have been drained increasing flood hazard, deforestation has increased landslide hazard. The above maps show how in Peru, the opening of new roads down the eastern slopes of the Andes and into the central jungle in order to extend the agricultural frontier has led to a notable increase in the number of reported landslide disasters in that region since the 1980s, easily visible in dark brown on the map.
Mandato de cumplimiento obligatorio tanto para los gobiernos de los países de la región, como para los diferentes órganos del Sistema de Integración Regional . Los Gobiernos del SICA tienen la obligación de tomar las acciones que les correspondan de conformidad con sus respectivos ámbitos de competencia, para velar por el adecuado cumplimiento de dichos mandatos, independientemente de cuáles sean sus planes de trabajo Posicionamiento del tema de Cambio Climático al más alto nivel de la agenda regional Decisión formal al más alto nivel de parte del Sistema de Integración (Reunión de Presidentes) Contiene el mandato de elaborar y poner en ejecución la Estrategia Regional de Cambio Climático y dicta lineamientos Reconoce la decisión de los países de asumir compromisos acordes a la capacidad y circunstancia de cada país para la reducción de gases de efecto invernadero y aumentar los sumideros de acuerdo a las capacidades de cada país.
Objetivos específicos Establecer mecanismos de ejecución, gerenciamiento y monitoreo de la ERCC, eficientes y eficaces, en cada país y regionalmente por medio de los indicadores adecuados (ODM, IDH e intensidad de las emisiones), usando como línea base las comunicaciones nacionales. Articular enfoques sistémicos para que los mecanismos regionales existentes ahorren recursos, aumenten potencialidades y multipliquen impactos de adaptación de la región. Posicionar la región en el ámbito global a partir de una estrategia regional, coherente, explícita y financiada.(ámbito regional). Incidir en el marco global para lograr la compensación internacional de acuerdo a la estrategia. Contribuir desde la región a la determinación de los mejores acuerdos globales y al logro de metas globales a partir de nuestras propias potencialidades y realidades, intensificando el intercambio de experiencias, información, conocimiento y desarrollo de capacidades locales.
Un documento que recoja los principios, lineamientos, áreas programáticas y disposiciones contenidas en la Declaración de Presidentes (incluyendo las contribuciones de los sectores gubernamentales y no gubernamentales a que hacen referencia los mismos lineamientos). Un proceso de consulta final del documento con el fin de garantizar la “incorporación de las contribuciones de otras instancias de los Estados, la institucionalidad regional, la sociedad civil organizada y el sector privado de la región”. Un “Plan de Acción” que refleje la clarificación de responsabilidades, arreglos institucionales necesarios y compromisos en cuanto a metas y tiempos por parte de las autoridades nacionales y regionales para su puesta en operación.
El nivel regional, que en su caso brinda orientación a los organismos y entidades regionales en el cumplimiento de sus respectivas competencias y responsabilidades para la puesta en ejecución de la Estrategia, se orientará a armonizar enfoques y brindar y facilitar el desarrollo de herramientas metodológicas, materiales, científicas y financieras; para mejorar las capacidades nacionales para llevar adelante los compromisos presidenciales. b) El nivel nacional, cuyo cumplimiento corresponderá a las autoridades y entidades nacionales competentes, idealmente a través de una estrategia nacional de cambio climático o instrumento de política equivalente. Varios países ya han tomado acciones en esta dirección, y Retroalimentarán la ERCC con diagnósticos, resultados y desafíos, para su monitoreo y actualización en forma regular. c) Nivel local, es en donde las plataformas sociales con arraigo al territorio pueden implementar las diferentes prácticas de adaptación y mitigación al cambio climático, utilizando para ello, las diferentes técnicas y el conocimiento tradicional. Son las verdaderas expresiones de cambio y están destinadas a validar las recomendaciones y conclusiones nacionales.