Public Lecture Slide Presentation (4.11.2013)
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Data-driven Perspectives on Community Recovery in Tohoku - Daniel P. Aldrich, Ph.D., Professor, Purdue University, Political Science
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Public Lecture Slide Presentation (4.11.2013)
- 1. During Disaster, (Tsunami) Size and Age Matter, but So Do Networks Daniel P. Aldrich Purdue University and Tokyo University Daniel.aldrich@gmail.com and Twitter @DanielPAldrich
- 3. Overall Project Framework Level of Analysis Cases Data Stress on International Japan, Haiti, India, China Recent earthquake disasters Political capacity and state-civil society relations National Aomori, Iwate, Miyagi, Fukushima, Chiba Prefectural damage, population shift, business condition Financial capacity, social capital, damage City / village/ town 280 coastal villages Quant (200+ variables with outcome of mortality and survival) Damage, social capital, politics, demographics Individual Survivors from six Tohoku villages Qualitative Narrative of survival and recovery
- 5. Variable Number of Observations Mean Standard Deviation Min Max Disaster characteristics Tsunami height 283 4.08 9.15 0.00 55.60 Demographic factors Percentage of pop over 65 283 0.27 0.06 0.12 0.55 Population density 283 680.00 1417.20 1.62 9530.00 Social capital factors Crime rate per capita 283 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.03 Blood donations per capita 283 6.97 11.16 0.04 123.50 Recycling compliance rate 269 18.05 7.18 5.80 58.20 Political factors LDP party support in 2009 LH election 283 0.29 0.45 0.00 1.00 Voter turnout 277 70.69 5.86 60.00 91.00 Merged locality 283 0.09 0.28 0.00 1.00 Environmental factors Sea wall height 212 1.33 3.20 0.00 15.50
- 6. Strong variation in mortality 050100150 Density 0 .02 .04 .06 .08 .1 Proportion of population missing or deceased
- 7. Some correlation with wave height HinoemataShowa Katsurao NishimeyaShichikashukuMishimaSaiKaneyamaKazamauraKawauchiShingo FudaiKitashiobaraImabetsuYomogitaYugawaBandai Tanohata SamegawaYanaizu Noda YokohamaTadamiNakajimaOhira HironoFurudonoTakkoSumitaIitateTeneiOmaYamatsuriKozakiShimogoKunoheNishiwagaIzumizakiAsakawaHirata Futaba SotogahamaTamakawaHigashidoriKuzumakiMutsuzawaNishiaizuShikama Naraha OnjukuShibayamaNagaraInakadate Shinchi HiraizumiOtamaOsatoKyonanFujisawaChonanGokaFukauraHanawaKawasaki Onagawa KunimiKawachiKarumaiRokunoheOtaki IwaizumiOwaniRokkashoOnoSannoheAjigasawa Okuma Murata IchinomiyaShirakoHiranaiNakadomariKagamiishiKoriZaoIchinoheTsurutaNoheji HashikamiChoseiIwate shiTanaguraMatsushimaTonoshoItayanagi Otsuchi MarumoriKawamataInawashiro Tomioka TakoFujisakiKanegasaki Yamamoto ShichinoheMihoAizubange Minamisanriku ToneWakuyaIshikawaMinamiaizu HironoKujukuriShizukuishiMiharu OaraiYabuki Yamada GonoheTohokuNishigoNanbuDaigo Shichigahama Katsuura Namie ShisuiShirosatoSakaeAizumisatoYachiyo Rikuzentakata Ogawara OiraseYokoshibahikariTaiwaMisatoKamiSakaiYahabaHachimantaiTonoNinoheItako TakahagiKakudaMotomiyaShiwaHirakawa RifuIbaraki Watari KamogawaKuroishi KujiTsugaruShiroishi TokaiNamegata Soma Shibata Kamaishi SosaTamura Ofunato Isumi MisawaMinamiboso Higashimatsushima Kasumigaura Iwanuma TsukubamiraiShimotsumaHitachiomiyaSakuragawaInashiki KitaibarakiTomiyaAmiFuttsuTateyamaOamishirasatoHokotaTomisatoOmitamaKitakataYukiTakizawaNaka SanmuBandoHitachiotaShiogamaGoshogawara Miyako NihonmatsuShiroiSodegauraMutsuToganeMoriya Tagajo ShirakawaJosoDate KashimaTowada AsahiChoshi Minamisoma Natori Yachimata Kesennuma KuriharaSukagawaKasamaIshiokaRyugasakiUshikuKatoriTomeYotsukaidoInzaiKimitsuMobaraKitakami KamisuHanamakiKamagayaChikuseiTorideIchinosekiMidoriOshuAizuwakamatsuNaritaKisarazu WakabayashiAbikoOsakiKogaTsuchiuraMihamaWakabaNoda HitachinakaInage Ishinomaki NagareyamaNarashinoUrayasuSakuraHanamigawaHirosakiYachiyo MiyaginoHitachiChuoIzumiTsukubaTaihaku HachinoheMitoIchiharaAobaFukushima shiMoriokaAomori shiKoriyama IwakiKashiwaIchikawaMatsudoFunabashi Chiba shiSendai Ibaraki 0.02.04.06.08.1 PercentageMissing/Dead 0 20 40 60 Maximum tsunami height
- 8. Predicted mortality ceteris paribus 0.01.02.03.04 Mortality 0 10 20 30 40 50 Tsunami Height
- 9. Age matters -.01-.0050.005.01.015 Mortality 0 20 40 60 Proportion of Population 65 and over
- 10. Proxy for social capital matters -.0020.002.004.006 Mortality 0 5 10 15 Pre-Tsunami Proportional Crime Rate
- 11. Why might social capital matter?
- 12. Conclusions Standard theories on mortality supported (weight height, age) No evidence that political factors played a role Social networks evidently important for survival Look next to combine qualitative and quantitative data to fill in gaps