Integrating Science into Practice and Getting it Right - Dr. R. Dean Boyd, Technical Director – The Hanor Company, AASV 43rd Annual Meeting, March 10 - 13, 2012, Denver, CO, USA.
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Dr. R. Dean Boyd - Integrating Science into Practice and Getting it Right
1. Slide 1
AASV 43rd Annual Meeting, 2012
‘Integrating Science, Welfare and Economics in Practice’
Practice
Integrating Science into Practice
and Getting it Right
R. Dean Boyd, Ph D
Technical Director – The Hanor Company
Adjunct Professor of Animal Nutrition
North Carolina State U.
2. A Tribute in Honor and Remembrance of –
Dr. Howard W. Dunne, 1913-1974
1941 DVM – Iowa State U.
1951 Ph D – Michigan State U.
1953–1974 – Penn State U.
90 Scientific papers,
Editor – Diseases of Swine
3. Slide 3
Presentation Addresses:
The Integration of Science into Practice
•Getting Science Applied Correct
•Role of Technical Professionals in that Process
•ID Problems to be Resolved in 5-8 Years
4. Science THEN – Science NOW
Since the passing of Dr. Dunne, advances
in Science have come like a Tsunami;
almost everything has changed.
5. Genetics – Science of the 21st Century ?
Advances during the past 2 decades alone have been so significant
that this Field may be considered the Science of 21st Century.
Sample Advances:
Human Genome Mapped
Recombinant DNA Technology
e.g. Improve vaccine development for viruses
Polymerase Chain Reaction
DNA Map to define Pathogen Strain as
Native, Foreign or ‘Evolved again’
Gene Microarray to ID DNA in Play
6. Some Discoveries – Not Quite as Imagined
These Technologies are remarkable additions to Biological Science
and Food Animal production. Viral strain ID, Viral vaccine and Drug
production are among the most welcome
outcomes. However, some Discoveries
were not as Imagined.
Ex. Human Gene ID Map
Expected to be much smarter IF . . . Map.
In Reality, do not know that much more
because Gene Outcomes are all about
the Interactions (Gene networks, ‘Environment’)
Vast Obesity Genes Network
7. Science is Not Always Applied Correctly
Nuances are Not Always Known – Sometimes Ignored
Practical Studies are important to expose short-comings in how we
are attempting to apply Science. Some of these are discussed in
this Paper because what we Learned was so remarkable.
3 Examples –
Early Wean Technology (immune ontogeny, epigenetic nuance)
Increasing Littersize while Ignoring other Physiological Imperatives
Robustness is Huge. Its Proof must be in the Field and routine
monitored (nature of gene expression determined by Environment)
8. The Everyday Practice of Science –
Cognitive Prejudice is Lethal to Correct Application of Science
Common Disease among Researchers is
Cognitive Prejudice.
It is easy to be a bad decision-maker.
Best way to make unbiased decisions is
to rely heavily on Data.
Bias can cause Scientists to cling to
Concepts despite Contrary evidence.
Dr. Frederick Grinnell – ‘Where Intuition
and
Passion meet Objectivity and Logic’
9. The Everyday Practice of Science –
Research Often Throws a Curve Ball into Scientific Theories
Discovery is a matter of ‘Seeing what everybody
has seen and thinking what nobody has thought’
Albert Szent-Gyorgi, 1937 Nobel Prize in Physiology.
A Fortuitous Curve Ball –
Our Best findings have come when a Curve Ball
appeared to Trash good Experiments.
Cabrera et al. 2002 is Classic Curve Ball
Recipients of an Unexpected, Seminal Find.
Discovered that E-W Technology hurts ADG,
Viability and Loin depth (See p. 15, middle column)
See
column
Szent-Gyorgi NIH Appt.
(Blecha et al., 1983 timid proposal was correct) (immune ontogeny or epigenetic)
10. Role of Technical Professionals in Getting Science
Applied Correctly
We are in a Unique Position to assist in getting Science understood
and applied because we have Facilities and Financial means to Test
prospective Technologies.
State of Art Facilities
Research Method in the Field with EU
for Statistical Sensitivity
Environment where Technology will employ
Research Model is a powerful complement to
Academia; comes at a time when their
resources for Animal Research are
dwindling.
11. Getting Science Right by Doing Research Well
Science in Practice –
Impressive array of highly skilled Animal and
Veterinary Scientists with Facilities that are
Unparalleled by any Prior Era.
Research Imperatives – See Paper
Competent Facilities – Personnel
Competent Experimental Design (Familiar N-EQ)
Completeness in Variables Measured *
Students Educated beyond their Main Interest
will make greater Contributions
(e.g. Immunology, Molecular Genetics, Metabolism)
* Adverse Reactions to Food, Brit. Nutrition Foundation
2002
12. Will We Always Get Science Applied Right ?
NO – Not at First !
Science is so Complex and has so many Intricacies that it will continue
to be an unfolding series of Discovery.
BUT –
Challenge the application of ‘isolated Science’ when proposed
Outcomes are apt to have ‘unexpected’ down-sides.
e.g. Extreme Litter-size without coincident increases in Uterine
Capacity
13. Constraints that Most Limit Profit in N. America
Transition:
Dr. Dunne was all about Diagnosis and Resolution of Problems.
With this in mind, the 2nd half of this presentation involves
Identification of Problems that most Constrain or Threaten Profit in
North American Pig Operations.
14. Probe For Most Differentiating Factors to
Profit Among Producers
Agri-Stats Records summary for Live Production, n=68 Firms
Imperfect Tool
Pig Viability was most Important Differentiating Factor
Differentiating Factors ranked the same in Profit and Loss years (2,2)
Performance Mean and Relative Advantage
Metric
Post-wean mortality
Culled at barn close
Pre-wean mortality
Market price
Total finish cost
Wean pig cost
Finish feed cost
Unit
%
%
%
$/100 Lb
$/100 Lb
$/Pig
$/Ton
AVG
9.5
2.8
14.8
52.2
49.0
27.8
206.4
Top 25%
6.8
2.1
13.4
56.1
45.9
26.4
199.5
ADV
1.290
1.253
1.094
1.075
1.064
1.049
1.033
Rank
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Weaned/mated sow
Pigs
23.7
24.4
1.030
8
Caloric FCE, Finish
Kcal ME/Lb
3874
3906
0.992
102
Outcome
No. pigs
No. pigs
No. pigs
Price
Cost
Cost
Cost
No. pigs
Cost
15. Probe for Opportunities to Advance Profit within
Our System using Financial Model
Relative value of Factors was considered in an Internal Financial Model.
Computed the amount a Metric would have to change in our System (Dec.
2011) to generate $1.50 Profit/pig.
KEY Metric ID = (Deliverable ∆) x (Value, $), See Table 3
Metric
Required ∆
Unit
Value Assumption
Full value weaned pigs
0.50
Pigs/litter
Simplified using only wean pig cost
Wean pig cost
1.45
$/pig
W-F mortality assumed, 6.0%
W-F mortality
1.00
%
$75/Carcass Cwt
Finish feed cost
5.00
$/ton
2.83 FCE (2.60 FCE, $4.25/ton if W–F)
W-F FCE improvement
0.037
Feed : Gain $300/ton complete diet
W-F ADG improvement
0.15
lbs/d
$38 per pig space
Carcass yield increase
0.70
%
$75/Carcass Cwt
Carcass value
0.71
$/Carcass
Sow Turnover
?
%
16. Slide 16
These Problems We Must Solve:
Problems that limit Profit in a significant and persistent
way for next 5-8 yrs.
•
•
•
•
•
Specific Evolving Disease (bullets 1-2 relate back to 2 prior slides
Mortality Non-Specific
Genome - Disease Constrained FCE
Sow Life-time Productivity
An Emerging Problem –
Extreme Litter-size
17. These Problems We Must Solve
1. Specific Evolving Disease
Diseases such as PRRS and SIV persist despite an Impressive
array of Research Tools and Personnel, who are searching for a
Solution. Solution to an evolving Virus is so complex that it brings
to mind a statement by the late Dr. Laurence J. Peter –
‘Some problems are so complex that you have to be
highly intelligent and well informed just to be undecided
about them’
18. These Problems We Must Solve
2. Non-Specific Mortality
Shown that the Top Firms are differentiating themselves by this
Metric (-29%). There are known differences in Viability (Robustness)
among Sire Lines, but we expect this to be no different for the Sow
Line who composes 50% of the progeny.
Principle:
Viability can only be tested under conditions of Moderate to High Immune
Stress. The Genome must be (1) challenged, and by a (2) variety of Field
Pathogens to see how the animal is Programmed.
Field Environments will tease out strengths and weaknesses that a Low
Immune Stress environment will obscure.
19. These Problems We Must Solve
2. Non-Specific Mortality
Ex. Field Validation of Sire Line is routine. This Figure illustrates a how
the Progeny from a Maternal Line lived Post-wean (25 - 278 lbs).
N = 986 each Line
SEM 0.77, P<0.001
20. Important FCE Technology in ‘Suspension’
3. Genome – Disease Constrained FCE
Most Important Nutritional means to improve FCE is the Pellet. Health
Control is essential because Pellets and poor Health can combine to cause
death in near biblical proportion.
Q How Much FCE Opportunity when Health is not a Factor ?
Criterion
Meal
Pellet
SEM
Prob. P<
No. Pens
89
89
--
--
Total No. Pigs Placed
1065
1086
--
--
Initial Weight, lbs
61.4
62.6
1.21
0.996
End Weight, lbs
270
278
0.78
0.001
Days on Feed
94.6
93.8
--
--
ADG, lbs/d
2.04
2.10
0.01
0.001
ADFI, lbs/d
4.75
4.45
0.03
0.001
FCE
2.72
2.50
0.01
0.001
Mortality + Removal, %
2.70
3.20
1.05
0.161
N. Williams and co-workers, 2005
21. Classic Genetic x Environment Interaction
Figure 1 a. Low Immune Stress, (N=2839) (Full PCV-2 dose)
NO better Illustration of the G x E Interaction than combining Pellets with
Inflammatory disease (environment). There is a Genetic basis to Pelletrelated death and there is an unusual effect of Disease (SIV, MP, HPS).
22. Classic Genetic x Environment Interaction
Figure 1 b. High Immune Stress, (N=3162) (1/2 PCV-2 dose)
Sire Line A served as the Control since previously proved Resilient to an
Immune challenge. Performed true for greater Robustness than Line B
under both levels of Immune Stress, but neither performed adequately
under High Immune Stress with Pellets.
23. These Problems We Must Solve
4. Sow Life-time Productivity
Definition: Total Quality pigs weaned from Breed Eligible Exit.
Problem: SLP is not a Metric that is commonly benchmarked.
Problem illustrated by about 42% of Females have 19 or fewer pigs,
which agrees with the concern of getting a young female thru 2
reproductive cycles.
Turnover ca. 50-60%.
Q What is a Reduction
In Replacement, 55% to
45% worth ?
24. These Problems We Must Solve
4. Sow Life-time Production (Retention, FVP weaned)
NPB Task Force operates within Animal Science Committee
Objective: 30% turnover decline
4.6 parity exit (3.3-3.6 present)
10-15 pigs/SL
3 Research Area’s
. Gilt development – Young sow retention
. Increase Quality Pigs weaned
. Bioinformatics mechanism to benchmark
6 Projects Funded, 2011
25. These Problems We Must Solve
5. An Emerging Problem – Extreme Litter-size
This Paper concludes with an emerging Concern – Extreme LS
Frank Assessment –
LS Science is not Complete
Littersize is Increasing but
Small Pigs are increasing
3 Concerns –
More Small Pigs
Litter Mortality Increase
Disease Susceptibility ?
Unclear what level PSY Born
becomes a Liability (continuum)
26. The Problem of Extreme Litter-size
I. Average Pig Birthweight Decline with Increasing LS
Data collected on 6039 newborn pigs from Litter 1-7 sows.
Linear decline, P<0.001.
Y = -0.088 + 4.471
Unpublished internal study, 2001
27. The Problem of Extreme Litter-size
Birthweight on Pre-Wean Mortality and Life-time Full-value %
Data from 434 Litters and 5039 Pigs from 2 Dam Lines, common Sire Line
Unpublished Internal Memo, 2009
28. 3. IUGR Program for Disease Susceptibility ?
Q Evidence for Fetal Programmed Disease Susceptibility ?
Fetal Programmed disease is supported by a significant body of
Human and some Food Animal literature (sheep).
Moderate to Dire IUGR of human Fetus was related to a myriad of
diseases of Metabolic and Immunologic nature.
Fetal Origins of Adult Disease, Barker et al. 2002 – Int. J. Epidem.
Developmental Origins of Adult Disease, Barker et al. 2004, J. Nutr.
Foetal Programming of Immune Competence, Cronje, 2003, Aus. J.
Exp. Agri.
Prenatal Programming . . . Health of Livestock. Bell, 2006 (P.
Greenwood IUGR Lamb hypophagia)
Biological Basis for Prenatal Programming of Postnatal
Performance in Pigs, Foxcroft et al. 2006, J. Anim. Sci.
29. The Problem of Litter-size and Birth Size:
Einstein’s Axiom for Mistaken Actions
Problem is that we do not know what PSY balance to strike with Littersize. We do not know what the Financial Implication of more Small Pigs
may be. One can imagine some steps to minimize the weaning of ‘too
many’ small pigs but . . . This much is certain –
‘Problems cannot be solved at the
same level of awareness that
created them’ A. Einstein
Physiological Imperatives to LS Technology
Uterine Capacity increase to prevent
Placenta Mass decline per Fetus
and
Milk Production, Nipple No. and Nipple
placement
30. Meanwhile – Progressively More Challenging
Industrial Approach to 48 h Pig Care is not Suitable
48 h Team to address Mortality
Humane Euthanasia
Nipple Structure (bend over)
Small Pig Litters Supplemented
Rescue decks
Uterine Capacity measure ?
(R. Johnson et al. 1999 concludes)
31. Returning to Where We Began –
The Integration of Science into Practice
Q What is the Take-home Message ?
1
Devolving Brain
of:
Boyd
Loula
Connors
Harris
Baker
Henry
32. Slide 32
Most Important Take-Home Points
Animal and Veterinary Scientists can be a Powerful
Combination in Applying Technology.
Gene Expression is all about the Interactions; among Genes
and with the Environment.
Field Research is a must for this Reason.
Robustness is lacking in most modern Genotypes (Sow, Pigs).
This is proven in Sow Replacement, Pig Viability and by our
inability to use a major FCE Technology (Pellets).
Litter-size increase that is not matched by increases in Uterine
Capacity is fast-becoming counter-productive.
33. Finale – The Most Important Element of
Creativity
‘Seeing what everybody has seen but Thinking what
nobody has thought’
Albert Szent-Gyorgi
e.g. How many have seen Mount Rushmore
from the Canadian side ?