This is the third and final part of a lecture I gave at Leipzig University of Applied Sciences (HTWK) on Financial Modeling with Analytica in December 2014. The course was tailored for Master students in economics, showing them what is financial modeling and how we can create financial models that are transparent, easy to understand, flexible, and useful for running sensitivity analyses and Monte Carlo simulations—with Analytica. During the course the we built an Analytica model for a case study which I used to demonstrate key aspects like sensitivity and risk analysis. So the slides on these topics were just the opening for a live demo with the model and do not contain what I actually taught.
35. BMSim-Airline--explore-V06-student.ana
Wie wirkt es sich auf den Return on sales aus,
wenn mehr Flüge pro Woche (bis 4)
durchgeführt werden?
Berücksichtigen Sie die Auswirkungen auf die
Fullservice charter fee (s. Beschreibung).
Beachten Sie außerdem, dass sich mit jedem
Flug, der pro Woche mehr angeboten wird, die
Nachfrage (Demand per flight) im
Durchschnitt um 25% zurückgeht.
52. 1. Start with a conceptional model.
2. Document as you build.
10 Golden Rules of Financial Modeling
53. Sinnvolle Namen
für Variablen
Keine strukturierte
Dokumentation
Variablen ohne
definierte Rollen
Verborgene
Modellstruktur
Eingeschränkte
Modularität
Formeln arbeiten
mit Zellen
Tabellen
Kompliziertes Ändern
von Dimensionen
Keine Berücksichtigung
von Unsicherheiten
Wenig Unterstützung für
Sensitivitätsanalysen
Kein Trennung von
Modelllogik und
User Interface
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
54. Sinnvolle Namen
für Variablen
Variablen sind
strukturierte Objekte
Variablen ohne
definierte Rollen
Verborgene
Modellstruktur
Eingeschränkte
Modularität
Formeln arbeiten
mit Zellen
Tabellen
Kompliziertes Ändern
von Dimensionen
Keine Berücksichtigung
von Unsicherheiten
Wenig Unterstützung für
Sensitivitätsanalysen
Kein Trennung von
Modelllogik und
User Interface
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
55. Sinnvolle Namen
für Variablen
Variablen ohne
definierte Rollen
Verborgene
Modellstruktur
Eingeschränkte
Modularität
Formeln arbeiten
mit Zellen
Tabellen
Kompliziertes Ändern
von Dimensionen
Keine Berücksichtigung
von Unsicherheiten
Wenig Unterstützung für
Sensitivitätsanalysen
Kein Trennung von
Modelllogik und
User Interface
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
Variablen sind
strukturierte Objekte
56. 1. Start with a conceptional model.
2. Document as you build.
3. Make assumptions explicit.
10 Golden Rules of Financial Modeling
57.
58.
59.
60. 1. Start with a conceptional model.
2. Document as you build.
3. Make assumptions explicit.
4. Don’t put assumptions in future periods.
10 Golden Rules of Financial Modeling
61.
62.
63.
64. 1. Start with a conceptional model.
2. Document as you build.
3. Make assumptions explicit.
4. Don’t put assumptions in future periods.
5. Immediately test each calculation.
10 Golden Rules of Financial Modeling
72. 1. Start with a conceptional model.
2. Document as you build.
3. Make assumptions explicit.
4. Don’t put assumptions in future periods.
5. Immediately test each calculation.
6. Add detail gradually.
10 Golden Rules of Financial Modeling
73.
74.
75.
76. 1. Start with a conceptional model.
2. Document as you build.
3. Make assumptions explicit.
4. Don’t put assumptions in future periods.
5. Immediately test each calculation.
6. Add detail gradually.
7. Let sensitivity analysis guide you.
10 Golden Rules of Financial Modeling
77.
78.
79. 1. Start with a conceptional model.
2. Document as you build.
3. Make assumptions explicit.
4. Don’t put assumptions in future periods.
5. Immediately test each calculation.
6. Add detail gradually.
7. Let sensitivity analysis guide you.
8. Aim for clarity and simplicity.
10 Golden Rules of Financial Modeling
80. A theory should be
as simple as possible,
but no simpler.”
“ —Albert Einstein
81.
82.
83.
84.
85.
86.
87.
88.
89.
90. 1. Start with a conceptional model.
2. Document as you build.
3. Make assumptions explicit.
4. Don’t put assumptions in future periods.
5. Immediately test each calculation.
6. Add detail gradually.
7. Let sensitivity analysis guide you.
8. Aim for clarity and simplicity.
9. Embrace unexpected behavior.
10 Golden Rules of Financial Modeling
91.
92. 1. Start with a conceptional model.
2. Document as you build.
3. Make assumptions explicit.
4. Don’t put assumptions in future periods.
5. Immediately test each calculation.
6. Add detail gradually.
7. Let sensitivity analysis guide you.
8. Aim for clarity and simplicity.
9. Embrace unexpected behavior.
10. Don’t trust your model … too much.
10 Golden Rules of Financial Modeling