1. GGR 333: Energy & Society
UTM - Geography
Guest Lecturer: Tom Adams
URL: www.tomadamsenergy.com
October 2, 2012
(Youtube search: “David Suzuki Home Invasion”)

2. Today's Zombies
1. "Cost Benefit Analysis: Replacing Ontario’s Coal-Fired Electricity Generation", by DSS Management
Consultants Inc. and RWDI Air Inc. (2005)
http://www.energy.gov.on.ca/docs/en/coal_cost_benefit_analysis_april2005.pdf
2. "Long Term Energy Plan", Ontario Government, 2010
http://www.mei.gov.on.ca/en/pdf/MEI_LTEP_en.pdf
3. "Behind the switch: pricing Ontario electricity options", by Tim Weis and P.J. Partington, 2011
http://www.pembina.org/pub/2238
4. "Economic Impacts of the Wind Energy Sector in Ontario 2011-2018", ClearSky Advisors (2011)
http://www.canwea.ca/pdf/economic_impacts_wind_energy_ontario2011-2018.pdf
5. "Nuclear Main Source of Increased Electricity Prices in Ontario", Shawn-Patrick Stensil (2012)
http://www.greenpeace.org/canada/en/Blog/nuclear-main-source-of-increased-electricity-/blog/40203/

3. After-the-fact Policy Justification

4. Coal Kills (Says Gov't)

5. McKitrick Responds (Often)
• McKitrick noted that DSS applied an extreme
dose/response estimate: “the April 2005 report
employed a different epidemiological model than
the 2003 report, which involved replacing
standard acute effect parameters with a new
(but undisclosed) set of ‘long term effect’
parameters”
• If ‘05 study’s epidemiology was true, the list of
much bigger killers would include Toronto air
quality in the 60s, residential wood-burning
fireplaces, and gravel roads.

6. Ontario Long Term Energy Plan

7. LTEP Rate Forecast vs. Actual
• The LTEP excluded Global Adjustment (GA)
cost shifting. GA cost shifting will add about
$3.50/MWh to residential rates ‘15 or 2%
• LTEP provided an illustrative TOU bill for
June 2011 but actual TOU rates last June
were higher by 8%-12%
• Wind/solar far ahead of the LTEP outlook
• Residential power by 2015 appears to be on
track for rates around $180/800kWh

11. Declining rates in the US
• US EIA: inflation adjusted power rates in US
peaked in '08-'09, declined since. Meanwhile,
Ontario rates soar. (Annual Energy Review
issued September 27)
• While US average power rates are forecast to
remain steady, New England (oldest in US)
are forecast to decline according to EIA
Annual Energy Outlook (2012)

12. “…continued operation of (Ontario’s
coal) does result in significant costs,
notably to the health care system…”
60000
50000
40000
30000 Ontario coal production (GWh)
Ontario gov't health spending ($M)
20000
10000
0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

14. “Economic” Impacts Without
Ratepayers?
• The “methodology” section of the
introduction says that “Forecasts for job-
creation and ratepayer impact were
generated through a ClearSky Advisors
model”.(p.6) but only other mention of rate
impact is in the context of political support
associated with wind as a “perceived cause
of the increase in the cost of electricity”
• ClearSky confuses costs with benefits

15. “Nuclear Main Source of Increased
Electricity Prices in Ontario”
Blogpost by Shawn-Patrick Stensil -
May 1, 2012 (Greenpeace Canada)
“Nuclear advocates have blamed renewable energy
for driving up Ontario's electricity rates. A new report
by the Ontario Energy Board tells a different story:
Nuclear has been responsible for 45% of recent
increases on your electricity bill. Meanwhile, the
impact of renewables on your electricity bill has been
minor – about 6%.”

16. MSP Report Monthly GA by Source

17. Propaganda Alert (1)
• MSP doesn’t say that Nuclear has been
responsible for 45% of recent increases on
your electricity bill. The report carefully
lays out at pages 59 and 60 the
components of Global Adjustment, not
“your electricity bill” as Stensil cites.
• Although there are nuclear advocates
criticizing McGuinty’s green policies, most
of the critics are rural land-owners
concerned about property values.

18. Propaganda Alert (2)
- Stensil relies on a snap-shot and without
normalization
- On a per unit basis and looking at the near
future, new renewables are about to have a
massive rate impact
- Existing nuclear is priced at 5.6 cents/kWh to
about 8 cents/kWh whereas new wind starts at
11.5 cents/kWh and new solar starts at 34.7
cents/kWh

19. Propaganda Alert (3)
• Stensil says -- “Luckily for consumers, however, the Green Energy
Act is also designed to reduce prices paid for new wind and solar
installations as prices drop due to innovation in the industry. And the
government reduced prices paid for renewables earlier this year.”
(emphasis added)
• Contrary to Stensil’s assertion, the government did not reduce prices
paid for renewables. All wind/solar in Ontario operates under 20
year contracts with escalators built in. The government reduced only
the rate paid for new renewables, although the new prices far
exceed market value.
• Stensil’s comments illustrate how a culture of deceit can take root in
a complex field.