This is an initial view that brings together a number of different perspectives on the future of car servicing being driven by potential changes within the sector, in adjacent arenas and beyond. Having gained some feedback and opinion from around the world on which of these shifts will have greatest impact, which will happen first and what is missing from this view we have added in some potential future scenarios for how the future shifts could change customer experiences and business models for dealers and workshops. Further comments on these thoughts are welcome and will be shared in a few weeks time As with all futureagenda projects, the outputs will be openly shared for all to use as sources of insight and stimulus for innovation, strategy challenge and wider engagement.

1. The
Future
of
The
Auto
Service
Experience
28
O
ct
2013
|
Tim
Jones
|
Charlie
Curson

2. Ini:al
Views
Sector
Feedback
Poten:al
Scenarios
Overview
This
presenta:on
shares
some
views
on
trends
that
could
impact
auto
servicing
over
the
next
few
years.
It
includes
trends,
feedback
from
across
the
sector
and
some
poten:al
scenarios
for
the
future

3. Ini7al
Views

4. Sector
ShiOs
Adjacent
Changes
Macro
Trends
Star7ng
Point
An
ini:al
view
brought
together
a
number
of
different
perspec:ves
on
the
future
of
auto-­‐servicing
being
driven
by
poten:al
changes
within
the
sector,
in
adjacent
arenas
and
beyond.
This
follows.

5. Shi>s
Within
The
Automo7ve
Industry

6. Intelligent
Highways
Mesh
networks
and
ubiquitous
mobile
connec:ons
deliver
automated
highways
to
improve
safety,
increase
capacity
and
reduce
conges:on

7. Autonomous
Vehicles
Led
by
urban
delivery
pods
and
long
distance
trucks,
the
rise
of
automa:cally
driven
vehicles
leads
to
the
reinven:on
of
the
travel
experience
around
infotainment

8. Digital
Showrooms
Vehicle
selec:on
and
purchase
takes
place
on
the
high
street
and
in
shopping
malls
with
immersive
digital
experience
replacing
edge
of
town
physical
car
dealerships

9. Smart
Cars
Every
vehicle
has
thousands
of
sensor-­‐connected
computers
that
collec:ve
provide
the
intelligent
car
able
to
monitor
itself,
its
environment
and
its
passengers

10. Declining
Cost
of
Ownership
Increased
compe::on,
system
efficiency
and
more
open
pricing
leads
to
a
net
decline
in
the
ongoing
cost
of
ownership
of
a
vehicle
aOer
purchase

11. Inclusive
Service
Plans
Customers
increasingly
have
their
first
three
years
servicing
included
within
as
a
fixed
price
the
purchase
or
lease
cost
of
their
vehicle
as
long
as
this
takes
place
at
a
dealer

12. Smaller
Cars
More
crowded
urban
environments
and
the
drive
for
beVer
fuel
economy
reverse
the
trend
for
larger
cars
and,
especially
for
the
young
and
old,
smaller
is
beVer

13. Pervasive
Leasing
Driven
by
a
combina:on
of
sustainability,
business
model
and
convenience
factors,
leasing
becomes
the
predominant
mode
of
new
vehicle
access
for
all

14. Declining
DIY
Greater
product
complexity
and
more
sophis:cated
diagnos:c
equipment
makes
customer
‘do
it
yourself’
servicing
almost
impossible
for
new
cars

15. Electric
Car
Services
The
growth
in
electric
vehicles
brings
with
it
the
advent
of
a
completely
new
service
experience
with
clean
environments,
super
fast
diagnosis
and
plug
and
play
component
swap

16. Convenient
Fast
Fit
Na:onal
fast-­‐fit
tyre,
service
and
retail
chains
extend
their
drive
in
service
support
for
low
complexity,
high
volume
wear
items
and
maintenance
ac:vi:es

17. Every
Car
is
A
Node
in
the
Network
With
the
introduc:on
of
embedded
SIM
cards
in
every
new
vehicle,
all
cars
are
tracked
and
the
advent
of
the
connected
car
experience
is
accelerated

18. Late
Customiza7on
Wider
personaliza:on
of
vehicles
is
enabled
by
the
shiO
of
op:on-­‐fit
from
manufacturer
to
dealer
and
opens
the
doors
to
new
owner
makeovers
when
cars
are
resold
second
hand

19. Mobile
Servicing
Significant
growth
occurs
in
at-­‐home
or
at-­‐work
low
complexity
servicing
from
mobile
technicians
provided
via
roadside
assist
companies,
independents
and
dealer
networks
alike

20. 20,000
Mile
Service
Intervals
All
new
cars
can
go
for
20,000
miles
or
two
years
between
services
due
to
universally
adopted
long-­‐life
products,
ubiquitous
diagnos:cs
and
greater
overall
vehicle
reliability

21. Predic7ve
Remote
Maintenance
F1
and
satellite
technology
is
applied
at
scale
enabling
car
manufacturers
to
con:nuously
monitor
vehicles,
diagnose
any
future
faults
in
advance
and
remotely
update
soOware

22. Drive
Thru
Servicing
With
pre-­‐arrival
diagnosis
the
norm,
drivers
opt
to
take
their
vehicles
to
loca:ons
able
to
do
a
full
service
in
30
minutes
while
they
have
a
coffee,
relax
and
browse
the
net

23. Uninformed
Customers
As
efficiency
improves
and
automa:on
grows,
drivers
are
ignorant
of
how
vehicles
work
and,
especially
in
fast
growing
economies,
unaware
of
anything
under
the
bonnet

24. Adjacent
Sector
Changes
That
Could
Have
Impact

25. Dynamic
Pricing
Real-­‐:me
consump:on
paVerns
and
data
seamlessly
drive
the
marginal
value
of
products,
the
cost
of
access
for
adver:sing
and
the
underlying
cost
to
produce

26. Personalized
Localized
Informa:on
is
con:nuously
updated
to
reflect
current
need
states
and
interests
of
the
individual
and
provided
for
seamless
cross-­‐pla`orm
consump:on

27. Retail
Showrooms
Physical
retail
outlets
diverge
in
ac:vity
between
tradi:onal
stores
and
showrooms
where
we
browse
and
research
ahead
of
online
purchase
and
at-­‐home
delivery

28. Perfectly
Informed
Consumers
BeVer
informa:on
of
cost,
quality,
benefit
and
availability
enables
consumers
to
set
the
right
price
for
products
and
services
and
buyers
pay
sellers
what
they
want

29. Everything
Niche
Niche
becomes
the
mainstream
as
the
cost
to
connect
those
with
common
interests
drops
to
zero
and
more
of
us
can
pay
aVen:on
to
specialist,
tailored
long-­‐tail
needs
and
wants

30. Transparent
Pricing
Consumers,
supply
chains
and
regulators
share
informa:on
openly
and
force
manufacturers
and
retailers
to
be
more
transparent
about
costs
and
accountable
for
errors

31. Less
Variety
The
future
is
one
of
reduced
choice
but
not
less
interest
as
bricks
and
mortar
retailers
provide
an
increasingly
edited
por`olio
of
products
through
ever
more
efficient
channels

32. Small
and
Distributed
Local
at
home
produc:on
matches
consump:on
with
3D
and
digital
scanning
and
prin:ng
providing
highly
efficient
and
good
quality
instant
physical
outputs

33. Bridging
The
Last
Mile
The
need
to
make
public
transport
as
flexible
as
private
focuses
aVen:on
on
the
first
or
last
mile
between
mul:-­‐modal
hubs
and
the
home
/
work
des:na:on

34. Access
Not
Ownership
Rising
sustainability
impera:ves
and
increasing
cost
of
ownership
all
shiO
the
balance
from
ownership
to
access
and
we
prefer
to
rent
than
buy

35. Redefining
Value
Consumers
want
to
par:cipate
in
value
crea:on,
shiOing
the
mindset
to
“made
with
me”
-­‐
Value
is
about
“shared
with
me”
as
the
ownerless
economy
expands

36. Openly
Shared
Insight
Knowledge
is
nothing
if
not
freely
shared
as
value
crea:on
shiOs
from
insight
ownership
to
insight
use
and
applica:on
while
branded
and
local
sources
of
content
compete
to
share

37. Mass
Customiza7on
Consumers’
expecta:ons
of
unique
and
bespoke
are
met
through
the
apparent
delivery
of
individual
combina:ons
drawn
from
choreographed
choice
architectures

38. Macro
Trends
Impac7ng
Many
Sectors

39. Ubiquitous
Data
Access
We
will
finally
be
connected
everywhere
-­‐
everything
that
can
benefit
from
a
network
connec:on
will
have
one
and
everyone
will
have
access
to
the
mobile
internet

40. Con7nuously
Earned
Trust
Inherited
and
historical
status
of
brands
and
icons
is
subsumed
into
a
world
where
trust
goes
to
the
most
credible
source
in
the
moment
and
many
fight
for
authen:city

41. Ci7es
Not
Countries
Ci:es
are
more
important
than
countries
and
increasingly
set
the
standards
as
cultural
connec:ons
predominate
over
na:onal
iden::es
and
urban
markets
group
around
common
issues

42. Internet
of
Things
Every
device
and
consumable
product
has
an
integrated
unique
IP
address
that
enables
everything
to
become
an
ac:ve
node
in
the
shared
network

43. Peer
to
Peer
Networks
Recommenda:on
and
advice
shiOs
from
experts
to
the
crowd
as
peer
to
peer
networks
dominate
in
an
era
of
shiOing
trust
and
declining
respect
for
ins:tu:ons

44. Adapta7on
to
Climate
Change
As
the
:me
to
impact
of
renewable
alterna:ves
becomes
clear,
the
world
recognizes
a
period
of
increased
planetary
stress
and
we
seek
to
beVer
adapt
to
more
extreme
weather
paVerns

45. Almost
Zero
Waste
Escala:ng
waste
produc:on,
changing
aftudes
to
resources
alongside
new
approaches,
regula:on
and
business
models
lead
many
to
aim
for
the
almost
zero
waste
society

46. Dense
Ci7es
As
urban
migra:on
increases,
efficient,
densely
populated
ci:es,
not
distributed
op:ons,
are
the
blueprints
for
more
sustainable
places
to
live

47. All
Digi7zed
By
2020
all
the
world’s
informa:on
is
digi:zed,
storage
is
nearly
free
and
the
volume
of
data
in
the
world
is
doubling
monthly
–
we
can
all
access
the
21st
century
archive

48. Sector
Feedback

49. Gaining
Feedback
We
shared
the
ini:al
views
on
emerging
trends
for
feedback
from
around
the
world
–
on
which
may
have
greatest
impact
,
which
could
happen
first
and
why.

50. Trends
most
likely
to
happen
1. Predic:ve
Remote
Maintenance
2. Uninformed
Customers
3. 20,000
Mile
Service
Intervals
4. Declining
Cost
of
Ownership
5. Access
Not
Ownership
6. Transparent
Pricing
7. Mobile
Servicing
8. Smart
Cars
9. Retail
Showrooms
10. Autonomous
Vehicles
Those
that
may
have
greatest
impact
1. Transparent
Pricing
2. Predic:ve
Remote
Maintenance
3. Mobile
Servicing
4. Retail
Showrooms
5. Digital
Showrooms
6. Uninformed
Customers
7. Access
Not
Ownership
8. Pervasive
Leasing
9. Electric
Car
Services
10. Inclusive
Service
Plans
Wider
Views
Feedback
from
car
manufacturers,
dealerships
and
industry
commentators
helped
to
priori:ze
the
trends
that
are
seen
to
be
most
likely
to
happen
first
and
those
that
could
have
greatest
impact

51.
Poten7al
Scenarios

52. 2020
-­‐
A
World
With:
Smart
cars
Everything
digi:zed
Electric
car
services
Inclusive
costs
Predic:ve
remote
maintenance
Pervasive
Leasing
Transparent
pricing
Uninformed
Customers
Smaller
cars
20,000
mile
services
The
2020
Perspec7ve
From
the
feedback,
it
is
clear
that,
sooner
or
later,
most
agree
that
technology
will
have
a
major
impact
on
the
service
experience
in
providing
a
more
connected,
efficient
and
simplified
landscape

53. Small
and
Distributed
Large
and
Concentrated
But,
there
seems
to
be
two
dis:nct
ways
in
which
the
future
experience
can
be
delivered
that
have
different
implica:ons
for
customers
and
impacts
for
the
auto-­‐service
providers

54. Small
and
Distributed
Large
and
Concentrated
Customer
Experience:
Local
and
personal
Mobile
servicing
Workshop
Impact:
More
flexible
approach
Less
frequent
foo`all
Fast
fit
whenever
possible
Cross-­‐brand
support
Convenient
loca:ons
Just-­‐in-­‐:me
stock
access
Mul:-­‐skilled
but
fewer
staff
Decoupled
from
retail
Value-­‐based
pricing
Best
price
parts
and
labor
Small
and
Distributed
In
the
‘Small
and
Distributed’
scenario,
we
can
see
a
world
in
which
customer’s
vehicles
are
maintained
away
from
the
retail
space
where
and
when
they
wish
with
maximum
convenience
and
minimum
hassle

55. Large
and
Concentrated
Customer
Experience:
Immersive
centers
Drive
thru
op:ons
Workshop
Impact:
Infotainment
experiences
Fast
priority
lanes
Digital
showrooms
Mul:-­‐brand
access
City-­‐center
/
mall
loca:ons
Smaller
forecourts
Mul:-­‐brand
rela:onships
Integrated
with
other
retail
Compe::ve
pricing
Best
price
parts
and
labor
Large
and
Concentrated
In
the
‘Large
and
Concentrated’
scenario,
we
can
see
a
world
in
which
customer’s
vehicles
are
maintained
away
from
the
retail
space
where
and
when
they
wish
with
maximum
convenience
and
minimum
hassle

56. With
all
the
data
openly
available,
how
quickly
can
the
customer
experience
be
reinvented?
What
new
approaches
can
be
adopted
to
unlock
new
sources
of
value
and
differen:a:on?
How
will
margins
be
impacted
by
more
transparent
pricing
and
greater
efficiency?
Will
the
control
balance
between
manufacturers,
dealers
and
workshops
have
to
change?
What
can
be
learnt
from
other
sectors
that
have
gone
through
similar
and
rapid
shiOs?
Five
Ques7ons
For
the
sector,
these
both
raise
a
number
of
key
ques:ons
for
the
future
–
primarily
around
the
speed
of
change
but
also
impac:ng
issues
such
as
control,
profitability
and
business
models

57. The
world’s
leading
open
foresight
program
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Agenda
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