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Semelhante a Willy olsen's presentation slides from the 2010 World National Oil Companies Congress
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Willy olsen's presentation slides from the 2010 World National Oil Companies Congress
- 2. www.intsok.com • 15 years as journalist and editor in broadcasting and newspapers • Employed by Statoil in 1980 – Head of Public and Government Affairs, Executive Committee – Managing Director Statoil UK, – Senior Vice President E&P Europe, Russia and Caspian, – Senior Vice President Corporate Strategic Development, – Advisor to the President and Executive Board • INTSOK advisor since retiring from Statoil in 2003 • Supporting the Norwegian petroleum cluster’s internationalization • Focus on NOC strategies, local value creation, revenue management and institutional development
- 4. Moving into deeper waters CHINA INDIA INDONESIA • Proven DW discoveries • DW gas field in production • More emphasis on DW gas, recent emphasis on DW oil • Large untested DW acreages • Early exploration stage • Proven DW discovery • Proven DW discoveries • Commenced development • Large untested DW acreages • Aggressive DW block awards and exploration drilling plans • Proven DW discoveries • DW oil field in production VIETNAM AUSTRALIA • Bidding and award of DW blocks started (2004) • Untested DW acreages • Exploration to commence MALAYSIA • Proven DW discoveries • Ongoing DW exploration and development PHILIPPINES • Proven DW Discoveries • DW gas field in production MYNAMAR • Intensifying deepwater exploration
- 6. www.intsok.com • Paradox of Plenty • Most resource rich countries are worse off than resource poor
- 12. Shaping forces • Forces that may shape the development of energy in the coming generation – State dominance of energy resources – Might of China and India – Global environmental awareness – End of the “easy oil era” • No matter how fast the progress is on alternative energies, the world will be primarily reliant on fossil fuels for at least two generations
- 17. • China involved in extensive resource diplomacy. • Signed one of its biggest ever loan deals with Rosneft and Transneft – $25 billion oil export backed deal – 300,000 b/d for 20 years from 2011 • Venezuela accepted $12 billion – PDVSA will deliver 80,000 and 200,000 b/d – China already gets some 200,000 b/d • Petrobras secured 10 billion dollars to finance its ambitious five year plan • Major financial deal with Kazakhstan Opening its deep pockets
- 18. China will become the largest oil consumer • By 2030 China will be the largest global oil consumer • Displacing the US from a position it has held for 150 years • India and Saudi Arabia will be among the five largest consumers • Displacing Germany, England and France 2010 2020 2030
- 20. Access to oil Access to gas Saudi Mexico Iran Iraq Kuwait Reserve data: BP’s statistical review 2008 – analysis: Willy H Olsen Russia Turkmenistan Access is possible – but with equity?
- 21. Do we see a new oil producing super power emerging? Can the industry handle the substantial risks?
- 24. • Iraq has agreed 11 service contracts for 14 field • Asian NOCs involved in nearly all fields • CNPC, CNOCC, Petronas = more reserves than the IOCs • IOCs happy to have NOCs as partners • Many of them super giants with low technical risks • 65 billion barrels of reserves – From heavy oil to ultra light • Potential production could be 11 million barrels per day • International companies in charge of planning under supervision by Iraq • Early production from the agreements within two years • Needs rapid build up and huge volumes to make it a success Super giant to be developed
- 25. • Iraq has not forgotten its past • Achieved terms that was unthinkable • Addressed the national sensitivity issues • National ownership • Almost all revenues to government • Penalty if companies cannot deliver • Iraq needs technology and management skills • Large market for service and drilling companies • No exploration risks • Limited evacuation risks – close to pipelines and sea port Why service contracts
- 29. They control a major share of global conventional gas reserves They have suddenly got competition
- 30. Gas markets becoming more global Illustration: ExxonMobil • The global gas system has changed since 2000 • Used to be dominated by national or regional markets • LNG growth since 2005 has begun to change the markets • Gas markets still not fully global • Moving in that direction
- 31. The game changer in global gas Source: EIA • Shale gas changed the US gas market • Influenced the European markets • And also impacting Asian markets
- 34. • They are still the world’s largest companies – Leading frontier resource development – Leveraging capabilities ‐ technology, know‐ how, major projects – Managing efficient hydrocarbon movements and infrastructure – Investing for the future • alternatives, efficiency – Managing risk ‐ strong balance sheets, diversified global asset bases • Some NOC’s may gradually fill part of the space… The role of international oil companies
- 37. • More than 100 NOCs around the world – They control most of the reserves – They are very different – Many have become commercialized – Many are in dire need of reforms • Most NOCs were created with a mandate to implement government energy policies • The overall mission was to increase state revenues and act as an economic engine • They will be the local content driver 37 NOCs are the nations custodians
- 47. The national policy agenda Managing revenues and opportunities Government’s oil and gas policies • Impact on local communities • Supply chain – Employment – Training – Skills – Equipment – Technology – Capital • Use the feedstock – Power – Industry – Petrochem – Jobs – Add value Managing revenues and opportunities
- 48. www.intsok.com
- 50. Brazil Nigeria Kazakhstan Russia T&T Angola Libya Iran Saudi Canada Australia Venezuela Malaysia Norway Azerbaijan Algeria Old timers Newcomers Tanzania Timor LesteEcuador Bolivia Ghana Indonesia PNG UK Mexico The drive for local content Iraq Source: Willy H Olsen
- 52. 52 Multinational oil companies Technology suppliers National Oil Companies The global supply chain
- 57. Restoring the role of China and India • Asia’s economic powerhouses—China and India— are restoring positions they held two centuries ago • China then produced 30 % and India 15% of the world’s wealth • Will be the largest contributors to worldwide economic growth for the first time since the 18th century • Likely to surpass the GDP of all other economies except the US and Japan by 2025 • Continue to lag in per capita income for decades • Many Chinese and Indians will feel left out
- 59. Project Location Capacity Operator start Dapeng Shenzhen 3,7 CNOOC 2006 Fujian Quanzhoue 2.6 CNOOC 2008 Shanghai Shanghai 3 CNOOC 2009 Rudong Rudong 3,5 CNPC 2011 Dalian Dalian 3 CNPC 2011 Tangshan Tangshan 3 CNPC 2012 Zhuhai Zhuhai 3 CNOOC 2010 Zhuhai Zhuhai 2 Sinopec 2012 Zhejiang Ningbo 3 CNOOC 2013 Shenzhen Shenzhen 2 CNPC 2012 Hainan Qingdao 3 Sinopec 2012 Xuedong Shantou 2 CNOOC 2012 Yuexi Jiejang 2 CNOOC 2014 China is building receiving plants for LNG
- 60. • Value Creation Value Added Knowledge retention Economic multiplier effect • Economically Sound Local content definition and basic premises • Equal or Better Quality Cost Delivery Safety & Environment • Nurture not Subsidize “What is the extra mile that you need to take?” Key definition features Basic premises
- 62. imports imports Current Demand Future Demand 1. Increase productivity capacity of highly competitive sectors 2. Develop competition among medium competitive sectors 3. Incentive for new national entrants 4. Incentive for association between national and international companies 5. Incentive for settling down international companies in Brazil Increase in National Supply Capacity of G&S Domestic capacity will not be large enough
- 66. • The discovery of oil and gas can herald an era of economic opportunity • Will take time to filter through to the man on the street • Something can filter through quickly with the right policies! • The challenge – High‐tech industry with large capital investments – Not a big job generator compared to the money that is spend • Government must use revenues to revitalize other sectors and add jobs • Local companies must co‐operate • Oil companies and Government have to get their act together, but also manage expectations to gain people’s trust Manage expectation is crucial
- 67. • “We are positioning Ghana for a major industrial take‐off. • Laying the foundation for: – an integrated aluminium industry – a petrochemical industry – a fertilizer industry to give impetus to agro development – consumer products and exports based on oil and gas • Dependence on traditional raw material exports of cocoa, gold and timber should be a thing of the past in 2016” Your President’s ambitions…. President John Atta‐Mills outlined his ambitions in the State of the Nation Address 2010