Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme 2012–2015
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Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme 2012–2015 a presentation by Fiona Carroll, Knowledge Integration, Met Office.
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Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme 2012–2015
- 1. Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme 2012–2015 Fiona Carroll Knowledge Integration © Crown copyright Met Office
- 2. Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme 2012 - 2015 Purpose of Met Office Hadley Centre To provide up-to-date, robust and traceable scientific advice to HM Government on climate variability and climate change based on worldleading science Core of the UK’s national climate capability Resources ~ 2/3 DECC and Defra funding for Climate Programme to address UK Government’s key climate questions ~ 180 staff – scientific and support Substantial gearing from location within Met Office © Crown copyright Met Office
- 3. Work of Climate Programme • Monitoring global and national climate • Understanding the climate system and representing it in climate models • Predicting future change and impacts • Attributing recent change to causes • Providing advice to government • Communicating the science © Crown copyright Met Office
- 4. © Crown copyright Met Office
- 5. Policy Channel A: Climate monitoring and attribution Observing the climate system Monitor trends and extremes in climate and review observational needs Attributing causes of change • Global and regional-scale climate and extremes – e.g. temperature, precipitation and humidity • Assess changes in risk of extreme events • Development of a near-real time system to attribute extreme events (ACE) © Crown copyright Met Office
- 6. Policy Channel B: Dangerous climate change (impacts, vulnerabilities and risks) Arctic and Antarctic • Near-real time briefings on the state of Arctic sea-ice • What role does Arctic sea ice melt have on atmospheric circulation (and therefore regional conditions)? The Meridional Overturning Circulation • Impact of observed slowdown in 2009 / 2010 on regional climate September Arctic sea ice extent Methane •Release from permafrost and wetlands Sea level • Reversibility of regional sea level rise. © Crown copyright Met Office
- 7. Policy Channel C: Evidence to inform UK and international energy policy Scoping HMG requirements of climate science evidence to inform UK renewable energy provision Projections relevant to wind and non-wind renewable energy generation in the UK Relationships between renewable energy generation sources across Europe. © Crown copyright Met Office
- 8. Policy Channel D: Evidence to inform UK and international mitigation policy Global projections Global temperature change and other variables e.g. river run-off and permafrost extent for different emissions scenarios Climate impact assessments Building on the climate impact assessments presented at UNFCCC Durban Land use Assessment of the physical and biogeochemical impacts of land use in a mitigation context. © Crown copyright Met Office
- 9. Policy Channel E: Evidence to inform UK and international adaptation policy Three different emission scenarios UKCP09 Seven different timeframes Potential updates of UKCP09: • seasonal resolution 25km grid, 16 admin regions, 23 river-basins and 9 marine regions © Crown copyright Met Office • long return-period extreme events
- 10. Summary • The Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme provides world-class scientific evidence on climate variability and change to UK Government. • Over the three years the Programme will output ~130 outputs in the form of papers and reports, plus many briefings. • These outputs rely on the extensive underpinning research and model development which forms the backbone of the UK’s national climate capability. © Crown copyright Met Office
Notas do Editor
- The 2011 Texas heatwave is thought to be 20 times more likely in a La Nina year than it would have been 50 years agoIt’s important to note that we don’t see evidence for a strong human influence in all weather extremes. In the example of the 2011 Thailand floods no discernable impact from human activity is found.
- The Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) define feasible future emissions and forcings pathways, of varying severity, of greenhouse gas concentrations and aerosol emissions up to 2100. RCP8.5 is a high emissions scenario that can be considered a high fossil fuel “business as usual” future. RCP2.6, which can be considered a world with a transition to a low carbon economy, represents very strong mitigation. They, along with intermediary RCP4.5 and RCP6.0 will form the emissions input for the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (see Figure top).