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China
         Financial Index
         SEB           Shanghai Branch                                                                                                                                         16 March 2010



             Investments up as business climate improves
             - But profit expectations fall as margins deteriorate
              =                                                                                              =
                                                                                                             =
              pÉåáçê= ã~å~ÖÉêë= ~í= kçêíÜÉêå= bìêçéÉ~å=
                                                                                                             få= pb_Ûë= `Üáå~= cáå~åÅá~ä= pìêîÉóI= ëÉåáçê=
              ëìÄëáÇá~êáÉë= áå= `Üáå~= ÑçêÉëÉÉ= ~= ÅçåíáåìÉÇ=
                                                                                                             ã~å~ÖÉêë= Ñêçã= ~êçìåÇ= RM= ëìÄëáÇá~êáÉë= çÑ=
              áãéêçîÉãÉåí= áå= ÄìëáåÉëë= éêçëéÉÅíë= çå= íÜÉ=
                                                                                                             ã~àçê= kçêÇáÅ= ~åÇ= dÉêã~å= Åçãé~åáÉë= áå=
              `ÜáåÉëÉ= ã~êâÉíK= ^äãçëí= Ü~äÑ= çÑ= íÜÉ=
                                                                                                             `Üáå~= ïÉêÉ= ~ëâÉÇ= ~Äçìí= íÜÉáê= ÉñéÉÅí~íáçåë=
              êÉëéçåÇÉåíë= ÉñéÉÅí= íÜÉáê= ÄìëáåÉëë= ëáíì~íáçå=
                                                                                                             çÑ= íÜÉáê= çïå= ÄìëáåÉëë= ~ë= ïÉää= ~ë= íÜÉ= ã~Åêç=
              íç= áãéêçîÉ= ÑìêíÜÉê= ~åÇ= OMB= ÉñéÉÅí= áí= íç=
                                                                                                             ~åÇ= Ñáå~åÅá~ä= ÉåîáêçåãÉåíK= lîÉê~ääI=
              áãéêçîÉ=ëáÖåáÑáÅ~åíäóK=
                                                                                                             ã~å~ÖÉêë= ÄÉäáÉîÉ= íÜ~í= íÜÉ= ÉÅçåçãó= ïáää=
              =
                                                                                                             ÅçåíáåìÉ= íç= áãéêçîÉ= ~åÇ= ~êÉ= ãçîáåÖ= Ñêçã=
              `çãé~åáÉë= ~êÉ= åçï= ëí~êíáåÖ= íç= áåîÉëí= áå=
                                                                                                             íÜÉ= éêÉîáçìë= ““Å~êÉÑìääó= Éñé~åÇÒ= ëíê~íÉÖó=
              `Üáå~= ~Ö~áå= ïáíÜ= SRB= éä~ååáåÖ= ãçÇÉëí=
                                                                                                             íÜ~í=ã~åó=Åçãé~åáÉë=~ÇçéíÉÇ=áå=pÉéíÉãÄÉê=
              áåîÉëíãÉåí= ~åÇ= NUB= éä~ååáåÖ= ã~àçê=
                                                                                                             íçï~êÇë= ~= ãçêÉ= ~ÖÖêÉëëáîÉ= Éñé~åëáçå= áå=
              áåîÉëíãÉåíë= áå= íÜÉ= ÅçãáåÖ= ëáñ= ãçåíÜëK=
                                                                                                             `Üáå~K=
              oÉÅêìáíãÉåí=éä~åë=~äëç=ÅçåíáåìÉ=íç=áåÅêÉ~ëÉK=
                                                                                                             =
              =
                                                                                                             =få= íÜÉ= ãÉ~åíáãÉI= ãçåÉí~êó= éçäáÅáÉë= ~êÉ=
              eçïÉîÉêI=éêçÑáí=ÉñéÉÅí~íáçåë=~êÉ=äçïÉê=íÜ~å=
                                                                                                             ÉñéÉÅíÉÇ=íç=ÄÉ=íáÖÜíÉêK=jçêÉ=íÜ~å=íïç=íÜáêÇë=
              éêÉîáçìëäóI= áåÇáÅ~íáåÖ= Ñ~ääáåÖ= ã~êÖáåë= ~ë=
                                                                                                             ÉñéÉÅí= áåíÉêÉëí= ê~íÉ= ÜáâÉë= ~åÇ= Ü~äÑ= çÑ= íÜÉ=
              ÜáÖÜÉê= ã~åìÑ~ÅíìêáåÖ= Åçëíë= Å~ååçí= ÄÉ=
                                                                                                             êÉëéçåÇÉåíë= ÉñéÉÅí= íÜÉ= oj_= íç= ëí~êí= íç=
              ÅçãéäÉíÉäó= é~ëëÉÇ= çå= íç= ÅäáÉåíë= ~åÇ=
                                                                                                             ~ééêÉÅá~íÉ=~Ö~áåëí=íÜÉ=rpJÇçää~êK=
              ÇçãÉëíáÅ=ÅçãéÉíáíáçå=áåÅêÉ~ëÉK=
                                                                                                             =
              =
                                                                                                             = Our conclusions
              pb_Ûë=`Üáå~=cáå~åÅá~ä=fåÇÉñ=êÉ~ÅÜÉÇ=SR=áå=
                                                                                                             = jìäíáå~íáçå~ä= Åçãé~åáÉë= ~êÉ= ãçîáåÖ= Ä~Åâ= íç=
              pÉéíÉãÄÉêI=ìé=Ñêçã=SO=áå=pÉéíÉãÄÉêK==
                                                                                                             = ~å= Éñé~åëáçå= ãçÇÉ= çå=íÜÉ= `ÜáåÉëÉ= ã~êâÉí ~ë=
              =
                              SEB’s China Financial Index                                                    = íÜÉ= Åçìåíêó= ÅçåíáåìÉë= íç= êÉéçêí= ÜáÖÜ= ÖêçïíÜK=
                                                                                                             = táíÜ= ÜáÖÜÉê= ê~ï= ã~íÉêá~ä= éêáÅÉëI ~åÇ= ~=
                90.0
                                                                                                             = ëíêçåÖÉê= oj_I= ã~åìÑ~ÅíìêáåÖ= Åçãé~åáÉë= ~êÉ=
                80.0

                70.0
                                                                                                             = ÉñéÉÅíáåÖ íç= Ñ~ÅÉ= êáëáåÖ= áåéìí= ÅçëíëI= ïÜáäÉ=
                60.0
                                                                                                             = çîÉêÅ~é~Åáíó= ~åÇ= ÅçãéÉíáíáçå= áå= ~äãçëí= ÉîÉêó=
                50.0
                                                                                                             = ã~åìÑ~ÅíìêáåÖ=ëÉÅíçê=äáãáíë=íÜÉ=~Äáäáíó=çÑ=Ñáêãë=
                40.0
                                                                                                             = íç=ê~áëÉ=Ñáå~ä=ÖççÇë=éêáÅÉëK=qÜ~í=ëÜçìäÇ=ÄÉ=íÜÉ=
                30.0                                                                                         = ãçëí= äçÖáÅ~ä= êÉ~ëçå= ÄÉÜáåÇ= Ç~ãéÉåÉÇ= éêçÑáí=
                20.0                                                                                         = éêçëéÉÅíë=~ãçåÖ=êÉëéçåÇÉåíë=áå=íÜáë=ëìêîÉóK=
                10.0                                                                                         =
                        Index value     Business
                                         climate
                                                      Investment
                                                         plans
                                                                     Employees          Profit
                                                                                                                                            cêÉÇêáâ=e®ÜåÉä=
              pçìêÅÉW=pb_=pÜ~åÖÜ~áK=dêÉó=ëí~Åâë=ëÜçï=êÉëìäíë=áå=j~êÅÜ=~åÇ=pÉéíÉãÄÉêI=OMMV=
                                                                                                             ÑêÉÇêáâKÜ~ÜåÉä]ëÉÄKëÉI=íÉäW=HUS=ON=RPVS=SSUN=


This report is produced by Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (publ) for institutional investors only. Information and opinions contained within this document are given in good faith and are based on sources
believed to be reliable, we do not represent that they are accurate or complete. No liability is accepted for any direct or consequential loss resulting from reliance on this document. Changes may be made to
opinions or information contained herein without notice. Any US person wishing to obtain further information about this report should contact the New York branch of the Bank which has distributed this report
in the US. Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (publ) is a member of London Stock Exchange. It is regulated by the Securities and Futures Authority for the conduct of investment business in the UK.
SEB Shanghai 16 March 2010                                                                             2




                                                       ëí~íáëíáÅëW= qÜÉ= j~êâáí= mjf= áåÇÉñ= Ñçê=
Confidence High                                        ã~åìÑ~ÅíìêáåÖ= áåéìí= éêáÅÉë= Ü~ë= ÄÉÉå=
China leading growth in 2010                           ÅäáãÄáåÖ=ëíÉ~ÇáäóI=íç=SVKV=áå=aÉÅÉãÄÉê=Ñêçã=
=                                                      QQKP= áå= j~óK= jçêÉ= íÜ~å= Ü~äÑ= çÑ= íÜÉ=
`Üáå~Ûë=ÉÅçåçãó=ÖêÉï=Äó=UKTB=áå=OMMV=~åÇ=              êÉëéçåÇÉåíë= áå= çìê= ëìêîÉó= Ü~îÉ=
pb_Ûë= ÑçêÉÅ~ëí= áë= íÜ~í= `Üáå~= ïáää= Öêçï= Äó=      ã~åìÑ~ÅíìêáåÖ=áå=`Üáå~K==
NMKRB=áå=OMNM=~åÇ=Äó=VB=áå=OMNNK=`Üáå~=ïáää=           =
íÜÉêÉÄó=ëÜçï=íÜÉ=ÜáÖÜÉëí=ÖêçïíÜ=é~ÅÉ=çÑ=~ää=           The RMB will appreciate vs. the USD
ã~àçê=ã~êâÉíë=áå=íÜÉ=ïçêäÇK=qÜáë=áë=áå=ëí~êâ=          again; interest rates are on their way up
Åçåíê~ëí=íç=íÜÉ=rpI=bìêçéÉ=~åÇ=g~é~å=ïÜáÅÜ=            =
~êÉ= ~ää= ëíáää= ëíêìÖÖäáåÖ= áå= íÜÉ= ï~âÉ= çÑ= íÜÉ=   ^äíÜçìÖÜ=        `ÜáåÉëÉ=     çÑÑáÅá~äë=    Ü~îÉ=
Ñáå~åÅá~ä=ÅêáëáëK=qÜÉ=âÉó=íç=ÖêçïíÜ=Ü~ë=ÄÉÉå=          ÉãéÜ~ëáòÉÇ= íÜ~í= ~= ëí~ÄäÉ= EáKÉK= åçí=
ÑáëÅ~ä= ëíáãìäìë= Ñáå~åÅÉÇ= Äó= ÜìÖÉ= Ä~åâ=            ~ééêÉÅá~íáåÖF= oj_= áë= áå= `Üáå~Ûë= áåíÉêÉëíë=
äÉåÇáåÖK= ^í= íÜÉ= êÉÅÉåí= k~íáçå~ä= mÉçéäÉÛë=         ~åÇ= íÜ~í= íÜÉ= Åçìåíêó= ïáää= åçí= ÖáîÉ= áå= íç=
`çåÖêÉëëI= íÜÉ= ÖçîÉêåãÉåí= ~ëëìêÉÇ= ã~êâÉíë=          éêÉëëìêÉ= Ñêçã= çíÜÉê= ÅçìåíêáÉë= íç= äÉí= íÜÉ=
íÜ~í= áí= ïáää= ã~áåí~áå= áíë= Éñé~åëáçå~êó=           ÅìêêÉåÅó= ëíêÉåÖíÜÉåI= íÜÉêÉ= ~êÉ= ã~åó= ëáÖåë=
ãçåÉí~êó= ~åÇ= ÑáëÅ~ä= éçäáÅáÉëI= ÉîÉå= ~ë= íÜÉ=       íÜ~í=íÜÉ=oj_=ïáää=áå=Ñ~Åí=ëí~êí=íç=ëíêÉåÖíÜÉå=
ÖçîÉêåãÉåí= ~ííÉãéíë= íç= í~ÅâäÉ= êáëâë= çÑ=           ÇìêáåÖ= OMNMK= oÉÅÉåíäóI= wÜçì= uá~çÅÜì~åI=
çîÉêÜÉ~íáåÖ= áå= íÜÉ= ÉÅçåçãó= Äó= ÑáåÉ= íìåáåÖ=       ÖçîÉêåçê= çÑ= `Üáå~Ûë= `Éåíê~ä= _~åâI=
éçäáÅáÉë= ~åÇ= ÅçåíêçääáåÖ= áåÑê~ëíêìÅíìêÉ=            ÇÉëÅêáÄÉÇ= íÜÉ= ÅìêêÉåí= éÉÖ= íç= íÜÉ= rp= Ççää~ê=
áåîÉëíãÉåí==                                           ~ë= íÉãéçê~êóI= äÉ~ÇáåÖ= íç= ã~êâÉí=
=                                                      ÅçåÅäìëáçåë=íÜ~í=`Üáå~=ïáää=áå=Ñ~Åí=ÅçåíáåìÉ=
=                                                      íç= äÉí= íÜÉ= ÅìêêÉåÅó= ëíêÉåÖíÜÉå= ~Ö~áåëí= íÜÉ=
=                                                      rp=Ççää~ê=~ÑíÉê=~=Ü~äí=áå=~ééêÉÅá~íáçåë=ëáåÅÉ=
=                                                      ^ìÖìëí=OMMUK=e~äÑ=çÑ=íÜÉ=êÉëéçåÇÉåíë=áå=íÜáë=
=                                                      ëìêîÉó= ÉñéÉÅí= ~å= ~ééêÉÅá~íáçå= ~åÇ= íÜÉ= NO=
=                                                      ãçåíÜë=éêáÅÉ=áå=íÜÉ=kac=ã~êâÉí=áë=~í=SKSPK=
=                                                      =
=                                                                  China USD/CNY & NDF 12-mth
=                                                                8.50
=                                                                8.25
=                                                                8.00
=                                                                                   USD/CNY
                                                                 7.75
=
                                                       USD/CNY




                                                                 7.50
=
                                                                 7.25
=
=                                                                7.00
=
=                                                                6.75
pçìêÅÉW=pb_I=kçêÇáÅ=lìíäççâI=pÉéíÉãÄÉê=OMNM=                                 12-mth NDF
=                                                                6.50
tÜáäÉ=~ää=áåÇáÅ~íçêë=áå=íÜáë=ëìêîÉó=éçáåí=~í=~=                  6.25
ÅçåíáåìÉÇ= áãéêçîáåÖ= ÄìëáåÉëë= Åäáã~íÉ= áå=                            05   06     07    08   09    10
`Üáå~I= éêçÑáí= éêçëéÉÅíë= Ü~îÉ= Ñ~ääÉå= ëáåÅÉ=
pÉéíÉãÄÉêK= = ^åÉÅÇçí~ä= ÉîáÇÉåÅÉ= Ñêçã=               SUB= çÑ= ã~å~ÖÉêë= ~êÉ= ÉñéÉÅíáåÖ= áåíÉêÉëí=
ÇáëÅìëëáçåë= ïáíÜ= çìê= ÅäáÉåíë= ïáíÜáå= íÜÉ=          ê~íÉë= íç= áåÅêÉ~ëÉ= áå= íÜÉ= ÅçãáåÖ= S= ãçåíÜëK=
ã~åìÑ~ÅíìêáåÖ= áåÇìëíêó= áåÇáÅ~íÉë= íÜ~í= íÜáë=        qÜÉ=áåÑä~íáçå=ÑáÖìêÉ=Ñçê=cÉÄêì~êó=Å~ãÉ=áå=~í=
áë=ã~áåäó=ÇìÉ=íç=êáëáåÖ=áåéìí=ÅçëíëK=^ë=ÑáÉêÅÉ=        OKTBI= ìé= Ñêçã= NKRB= áå= g~åì~êóK= jçëí=
ÅçãéÉíáíáçå= ~åÇ= çîÉêëìééäó= áå= ã~åó=                ÉÅçåçãáëíë=ÄÉäáÉîÉ=íÜ~í=íÜáë=áå=ÅçãÄáå~íáçå=
ã~åìÑ~ÅíìêáåÖ= ëÉÅíçêë= ~êÉ= âÉÉéáåÖ= Ñáå~ä=           ïáíÜ= çîÉêÜÉ~íáåÖ= áå= íÜÉ= éêçéÉêíó= ã~êâÉí=
ÖççÇë= éêáÅÉë= ÇçïåI= íÜáë= êÉëìäíë= áå= Ñ~ääáåÖ=      ïáää= äÉ~Ç= íç= ëÉîÉê~ä= ê~íÉ= ÜáâÉë= Äó= íÜÉ=
ã~êÖáåë=ïÜáÅÜ=ëÉÉãë=íç=ÄÉ=~=êáëáåÖ=ÅçåÅÉêå=            mÉçéäÉÛë= _~åâ= çÑ= `Üáå~= ÇìêáåÖ= OMNMK= qÜÉ=
Ñçê= Åçãé~åáÉëK= qÜáë= áë= ÑìêíÜÉê= éêçîÉå= Äó=        çåÉ=óÉ~ê=äÉåÇáåÖ=ê~íÉ=íçÇ~ó=áë=RKPNBK=
SEB Shanghai 16 March 2010                                                                               3




                                                        =
          Survey Results                                Subject: Employee Structure
=                                                       bîÉå= áå= íÜÉ= ãáÇÇäÉ= çÑ= íÜÉ= Ñáå~åÅá~ä= ÅêáëáëI=
Information about the Survey                            íÜÉêÉ=ïÉêÉ=åç=ã~àçê=ä~óJçÑÑë=~ãçåÖ=ÑçêÉáÖå=
The SEB China Financial Survey is based on input        Åçãé~åáÉë=áå=`Üáå~K=^ë=ã~å~ÖÉêë=áå=kçêíÜ=
from CEOs and CFOs at 50 subsidiaries of major
Swedish, Danish, Finnish, Norwegian and German
                                                        bìêçéÉ~å= Åçãé~åáÉë= ÄÉÅçãÉ= áåÅêÉ~ëáåÖäó=
companies. Most of the companies have a global          ÄìääáëÜI= íÜÉó= ~êÉ= åçï= éä~ååáåÖ= íç= áåÅêÉ~ëÉ=
turnover of over EUR 500 million. The survey is web-    ëí~ÑÑ= ÑìêíÜÉêK= RRB= éä~å= íç= áåÅêÉ~ëÉ= ëí~ÑÑ=
based and confidential and was carried out during the   åìãÄÉêë= ~åÇ= SB= ~êÉ= éä~ååáåÖ= ëáÖåáÑáÅ~åí=
period March 1 – 10, 2010.
                                                        áåÅêÉ~ëÉëK=qÜáë=Å~å=ÄÉ=Åçãé~êÉÇ=íç=QPB=~åÇ=
=
                                                        TB=êÉëéÉÅíáîÉäó=áå=pÉéíÉãÄÉê=ä~ëí=óÉ~êK==
=
                                                        EpÉÉ=Öê~éÜ=Q=çå=é~ÖÉ=RF=
=
                                                        =
=
                                                        =
Subject: Business Climate / Profit
                                                        Subject: Fixed Asset Investment Plans
Expectations
                                                        qÜÉ= åìãÄÉê= çÑ= Åçãé~åáÉë= éä~ååáåÖ=
kçêíÜÉêå=bìêçéÉ~å=ëìÄëáÇá~êó=ã~å~ÖÉêë=áå=
                                                        áåîÉëíãÉåíë= Ü~ë= Ñáå~ääó= ëí~êíÉÇ= íç= áåÅêÉ~ëÉK=
`Üáå~=Ü~îÉ=~å=áåÅêÉ~ëáåÖäó=éçëáíáîÉ=îáÉï=çÑ=
                                                        få= íÜáë= ëìêîÉóI= SRB= ~êÉ= éä~ååáåÖ= ãçÇÉëí=
íÜÉ= ÄìëáåÉëë= Åäáã~íÉ= Ñçê= íÜÉ= ÅçãáåÖ= ëáñ=
                                                        áåîÉëíãÉåíë= ~ë= Åçãé~êÉÇ= íç= RMB= áå=
ãçåíÜëI= Åçãé~êÉÇ= íç= ëáñ= ãçåíÜë= ~ÖçK= QUB=
                                                        pÉéíÉãÄÉêI= ~åÇ= íÜÉ= éÉêÅÉåí~ÖÉ= çÑ=
EQSB= áå= pÉéíÉãÄÉêF= çÑ= Åçãé~åáÉë= ÉñéÉÅí=
                                                        Åçãé~åáÉë=éä~ååáåÖ=ëáÖåáÑáÅ~åí=áåîÉëíãÉåíë=
ÄìëáåÉëë=ÅçåÇáíáçåë=íç=ÄÉ=Ñ~îçê~ÄäÉ=çîÉê=íÜÉ=
                                                        Ü~ë= áåÅêÉ~ëÉÇ= íç= NUB= Ñêçã= NNB= áå=
ÅçãáåÖ=ëáñ=ãçåíÜë=~åÇ=OMB=ETB=áå=j~êÅÜF=
                                                        pÉéíÉãÄÉêK= qÜáë= áë= áåÇáÅ~íáåÖ= ~= ëÜáÑí= áå=
ÄÉäáÉîÉ=íÜÉó=ïáää=ÄÉ=îÉêó=Ñ~îçê~ÄäÉK=låäó=UB=
                                                        `Üáå~= ëíê~íÉÖáÉë= ~ãçåÖ= kçêíÜ= bìêçéÉ~å=
ÄÉäáÉîÉ=íÜ~í=ÅçåÇáíáçåë=ïáää=ÄÉ=ìåÑ~îçê~ÄäÉK=
                                                        Åçãé~åáÉë= íÜ~í= ëÉÉã= íç= ÄÉ= ãçîáåÖ= Ñêçã=
qÜáë=Å~å=ÄÉ=Åçãé~êÉÇ=íç=NNB=áå=pÉéíÉãÄÉê=
                                                        ““Å~êÉÑìääó=Éñé~åÇáåÖÒ=íç=~=ãçêÉ=~ÖÖêÉëëáîÉ=
~åÇ=PRB=çåÉ=óÉ~ê=~ÖçK=kç=Åçãé~åó=ÉñéÉÅíë=
                                                        ëíê~íÉÖóK= fåîÉëíãÉåí= ÇÉÅáëáçåë= ~êÉ= ãçëíäó=
îÉêó=ìåÑ~îçê~ÄäÉ=ÅçåÇáíáçåëK=
                                                        í~âÉå= çå= ÜÉ~Çèì~êíÉê= äÉîÉä= ~åÇ= ïÜÉå=
=
                                                        ãìäíáå~íáçå~ä= Åçãé~åáÉë= Åçãé~êÉ= ã~êâÉí=
tÜÉå=~ëâÉÇ=~Äçìí=éêçÑáí=ÉñéÉÅí~íáçåëI=ROB=
                                                        éêçëéÉÅíë= Ñçê= OMNMI= ÉãÉêÖáåÖ= ã~êâÉíë= ~êÉ=
ÉñéÉÅí= éêçÑáíë= íç= áåÅêÉ~ëÉ= ~ë= Åçãé~êÉÇ= íç=
                                                        ÉñéÉÅíÉÇ= íç= ëÜçï= íÜÉ= ÜáÖÜÉëí= ÖêçïíÜ= áå=
SNB= ëáñ= ãçåíÜë= ~ÖçI= ~åÇ= åç= Åçãé~åáÉë=
                                                        OMNMK=`Üáå~=áë=áå=~=Åä~ëë=çÑ=áíë=çïåI=äÉ~ÇáåÖ=
ÄÉäáÉîÉ= íÜ~í= éêçÑáíë= ïáää= áãéêçîÉ=
                                                        íÜÉ=êÉÅçîÉêóK=
ÅçåëáÇÉê~Ääó= EÅçãé~êÉÇ= íç= QB= áå=
                                                        =EpÉÉ=Öê~éÜ=O=çå=é~ÖÉ=RF=
pÉéíÉãÄÉêFK= NQB= ÉñéÉÅí= Ñ~ääáåÖ= éêçÑáíë= EQB=
                                                        =
áå=pÉéíÉãÄÉêFK=
                                                        =
=
                                                        Subject: Average Outstanding Account
dêçïíÜ= áå= OMMV= ÉåÇÉÇ= ~í= UKTB= ~åÇ= ãçëí=
                                                        Receivables days
ÑáÖìêÉë=éçáåí=~í=ÅçåíáåìÉÇ=ëíêçåÖ=ÖêçïíÜ=áå=            cçêÉáÖå=Åçãé~åáÉë=çÑíÉå=ÜáÖÜäáÖÜí=é~óãÉåí=
`Üáå~K= `ÜáåÉëÉ= Éñéçêíë= EçÑ= ïÜáÅÜ=                   íÉêãë= ~åÇ= íÜÉ= áëëìÉ= çÑ= ~Åíì~ääó= ÄÉáåÖ= é~áÇ=
~ééêçñáã~íÉäó=SMB=~êÉ=éêçÇìÅÉÇ=Äó=ÑçêÉáÖå=              çå= íáãÉ= ~ë= çåÉ= çÑ= íÜÉ= ã~áå= ÅÜ~ääÉåÖÉë= áå=
áåîÉëíÉÇ=Åçãé~åáÉëF=êçëÉ=QRKTB=áå=cÉÄêì~êó=             `Üáå~K= _~ëÉÇ= çå= íÜáë= ëìêîÉóI= çåäó= ~= ëã~ää=
Åçãé~êÉÇ= íç= íÜÉ= ë~ãÉ= ãçåíÜ= ä~ëí= óÉ~êK=            ãáåçêáíó= çÑ= kçêÇáÅ= ~åÇ= dÉêã~å= Åçêéçê~íÉë=
^äíÜçìÖÜ= íÜÉ= ëáÖåáÑáÅ~åí= áåÅêÉ~ëÉ= áë= ã~áåäó=       Ü~îÉ= ~îÉê~ÖÉ= çìíëí~åÇáåÖ= ~ÅÅçìåí=
ÇìÉ= íç= Ä~ëÉ= ÉÑÑÉÅíëI= ãçëí= ~å~äóëíë= ÉñéÉÅí=        êÉÅÉáî~ÄäÉ= Ç~óë= çÑ= ãçêÉ= íÜ~å= VM= Ç~óëK= qÜÉ=
Éñéçêí= ÑáÖìêÉë= íç= Öê~Çì~ääó= êÉÅçîÉê= ÇìêáåÖ=        çåäó= ëí~íáëíáÅ~ääó= ëáÖåáÑáÅ~åí= ÅÜ~åÖÉ= áë= íÜ~í=
OMNMK= oÉí~áä= ë~äÉë= áåÅêÉ~ëÉÇ= OOKNB= áå=             é~óãÉåí= íÉêãë= ëÉÉã= íç= ÄÉ= ëÜçêíÉê= íÜ~å=
cÉÄêì~êó= ïÜáÅÜ= áë= QB= ÜáÖÜÉê= íÜ~å= ã~êâÉí=          éêÉîáçìëäóK= OQB= çÑ= êÉëéçåÇÉåíë= åçï= Ü~îÉ=
ÉñéÉÅí~íáçåëK= mçëëáÄäÉ= êÉ~ëçåë= ÄÉÜáåÇ=               PM= Ç~óë= ~îÉê~ÖÉ= é~óãÉåí= íÉêãë= Åçãé~êÉÇ=
Ñ~ääáåÖ= éêçÑáí= ÉñéÉÅí~íáçåë= ~êÉ= ÇáëÅìëëÉÇ= çå=      íç=NSB=ëáñ=ãçåíÜë=~ÖçK=
é~ÖÉë=N=~åÇ=OK=                                         EpÉÉ=Öê~éÜ=R=çå=é~ÖÉ=RF
E^äëç=ëÉÉ=Öê~éÜë=N=~åÇ=PI=éK=RF=
SEB Shanghai 16 March 2010                                                                              4




Subject: Funding Needs=                               pÉéíÉãÄÉê= NNI= ìé= ìåíáä= j~êÅÜ= NNI= íÜÉ= oj_=
cìåÇáåÖ= åÉÉÇë= ~êÉ= çå= íÜÉ= êáëÉK= qçÇ~óI= QOB=     Ü~ë= ~ééêÉÅá~íÉÇ= Äó= TKMQB= ~Ö~áåëí= íÜÉ= broI=
çÑ=ã~å~ÖÉêë=~êÉ=ÉñéÉÅíáåÖ=ÑìåÇáåÖ=åÉÉÇë=íç=           NKVVB= ~Ö~áåëí= íÜÉ= pbhI= SKTMB= ~Ö~áåëí= íÜÉ=
áåÅêÉ~ëÉ= áå= íÜÉ= ÅçãáåÖ= ëáñ= ãçåíÜëI= ~ë=          ahh= ~åÇ= ÇÉéêÉÅá~íÉÇ= MKPQB= ~Ö~áåëí= íÜÉ=
Åçãé~êÉÇ= íç= PPB= ëáñ= ãçåíÜë= ~ÖçK= RSB= çÑ=        klhK=qÜÉ=Ñ~Åí=íÜ~í=ëç=ã~åó=Åçãé~åáÉë=~êÉ=
ã~å~ÖÉêë= ÉñéÉÅí= ÑìåÇáåÖ= åÉÉÇë= íç= êÉã~áå=         ÉñéÉÅíáåÖ= íÜÉ= oj_= íç= ëí~êí= ãçîáåÖ= ~Ö~áåëí=
ìåÅÜ~åÖÉÇI= ïÜÉêÉ~ë= çåäó= çåÉ= ëáåÖäÉ=               íÜÉ=rpa=íÜáë=óÉ~ê==ã~ó=ÄÉ=çåÉ=êÉ~ëçå=ïÜó=
Åçãé~åó= ÉñéÉÅíë= ÑìåÇáåÖ= åÉÉÇë= íç=                 ~ë= ã~åó= ~ë= QSB= ~êÉ= ÜÉÇÖáåÖ= ëçãÉ= çê= ãçëí=
ÇÉÅêÉ~ëÉK= `çåëáÇÉêáåÖ= íÜ~í= áåîÉëíãÉåí=             çÑ= íÜÉáê= cu= Ñäçïë= çå= íÜÉ= çåJëÜçêÉ= Ñçêï~êÇ=
éä~åë= ~êÉ= áåÅêÉ~ëáåÖI= íÜáë= ëÉÉãë= äçÖáÅ~äK= ^í=   ã~êâÉíI= ~åÇ= ~åçíÜÉê= NSB= ~êÉ= ÜÉÇÖáåÖ= îá~=
íÜÉ= ë~ãÉ= íáãÉI= íÜÉ= áãéêçîÉÇ= ÄìëáåÉëë=            íÜÉáê=ÜÉ~Ç=çÑÑáÅÉë=íÜêçìÖÜ=kacJÅçåíê~Åíë=K=
ëáíì~íáçå=ïáíÜ=áåÅêÉ~ëÉÇ=ë~äÉë=ëÜçìäÇ=äÉ~Ç=íç=        =EmäÉ~ëÉ= ëÉÉ= Öê~éÜë= T= ~åÇ= U= çå= é~ÖÉ= R= éäìë=
~=ÖêÉ~íÉê=åÉÉÇ=Ñçê=ïçêâáåÖ=Å~éáí~äK==                 Öê~éÜ=V=~åÇ=NM=çå=é~ÖÉ=SF=
EpÉÉ=Öê~éÜ=S=çå=é~ÖÉ=RF=                              =
=                                                     =
=                                                     Subject: Main Concerns=
Subject: FX and Interest Rates=                       qÜÉ= ã~àçê= ÅçåÅÉêå= Ñçê= äçÅ~ä= ã~å~ÖÉãÉåí=
qÜÉ= îáÉï= íÜ~í= íÜÉ= `ÜáåÉëÉ= ÉÅçåçãó= áë==          êÉã~áåë= ““ÅìëíçãÉê= ÇÉã~åÇÒI= ïÜáÅÜ= áë=
Éñé~åÇáåÖ=Ñ~ëí=Å~å=ÄÉ=ëÉÉå=Ñêçã=ã~å~ÖÉêëÛ=            ëäáÖÜíäó=ìé=Ñêçã=íÜÉ=ä~ëí=ëìêîÉó=ëáñ=ãçåíÜë=
îáÉïë= çÑ= áåíÉêÉëí= ê~íÉë= ~åÇ= íÜÉ= oj_=            ~ÖçK= få= pÉéíÉãÄÉêI= QUB= ê~íÉÇ= áí= ~ë= íÜÉáê=
ÉñÅÜ~åÖÉ= ê~íÉK= kç= Åçãé~åó= ÄÉäáÉîÉë= íÜ~í=         ã~áå= ÅçåÅÉêå= Åçãé~êÉÇ= íç= QRB= áå= j~êÅÜK=
áåíÉêÉëí= ê~íÉë= ïáää= Ñ~ääI= ïÜÉêÉ~ë=SUB= ÄÉäáÉîÉ=   qÜÉ= ÄáÖÖÉëí= ÅÜ~åÖÉ= Ñêçã= çìê= ä~ëí= ëìêîÉó= áë=
íÜ~í= ê~íÉë= ïáää= Öç= ìéK= POB= ÉñéÉÅí= ê~íÉë= íç=   íÜ~í= ~ë= ã~åó= ~ë= NPB= åçï= ëÉÉ= ““ä~Äçê=
ëí~ó= ~í= ÅìêêÉåí= äÉîÉäë= áå= íÜÉ= ÅçãáåÖ= ëáñ=      ëÜçêí~ÖÉÒ= ~ë= ~= ã~áå= ÅçåÅÉêå= Eìé= Ñêçã= RB=
ãçåíÜëK= _çíÜ= ÇÉéçëáí= ê~íÉë= ~åÇ= äÉåÇáåÖ=          ëáñ= ãçåíÜë= ~ÖçFK= qÜáë= ïçìäÇ= ÄÉ= äçÖáÅ~ä=
ê~íÉë=~êÉ=êÉÖìä~íÉÇ=áå=`Üáå~=~åÇ=íÜÉ=ÅìêêÉåí=         ÅçåëáÇÉêáåÖ= íÜ~í= ëç= ã~åó= Åçãé~åáÉë= ~êÉ=
äÉåÇáåÖ= ê~íÉ= Ñçê= ~= NOJãçåíÜ= Ä~åâ= äç~å= áë=      åçï= áåîÉëíáåÖ= ~åÇ= êÉÅêìáíáåÖI= ïÜáÅÜ= ï~ë=
RKPNBK= qÜÉ= NOJãçåíÜ= ÇÉéçëáí= ê~íÉ= áë= OKORBK=     åçí= ëç= ÅäÉ~êäó= íÜÉ= Å~ëÉ= ëáñ= ãçåíÜë= ~ÖçK=
dáîÉå= íÜ~í= `Üáå~= Ü~Ç= ~= `mf= çÑ= OKTB= áå=        líÜÉê= áëëìÉë= íÜ~í= ïÉêÉ= ãÉåíáçåÉÇ= ïÉêÉ=
cÉÄêì~êóI= ÇÉéçëáí= ê~íÉë= ~êÉ= åçï= åÉÖ~íáîÉ=        ““ÅçãéäÉñ= êìäÉë= ~åÇ= êÉÖìä~íáçåëÒI= ““Åçëí= çÑ=
~Ö~áåK=^äíÜçìÖÜ=íÜÉ=ÖçîÉêåãÉåí=ïáää=ãçîÉ=             ê~ï=ã~íÉêá~äÒ=~åÇ=““ÑçêÉáÖå=ÉñÅÜ~åÖÉ=ê~íÉëÒK=
Å~ìíáçìëäóI= ãçëí= ÉÅçåçãáëíë= ÉñéÉÅí= çåÉ= çê=       ^ë= ÇáëÅìëëÉÇ= ~ÄçîÉI= ÜáÖÜÉê= ê~ï= ã~íÉêá~ä=
ãçêÉ= áåíÉêÉëí= ê~íÉ= ÜáâÉë= áå= íÜÉ= ÅçãáåÖ= ëáñ=    Åçëíë= ~åÇ= ~å= ÉñéÉÅíÉÇ= ~ééêÉÅá~íáçå= çÑ= íÜÉ=
ãçåíÜëK=                                              oj_=~êÉ=åÉÖ~íáîÉ=Ñ~Åíçêë=Ñçê=ã~åìÑ~ÅíìêáåÖ=
=                                                     Åçãé~åáÉëK=EpÉÉ=Öê~éÜ=NN=çå=é~ÖÉ=RF=
jçêÉ= ã~å~ÖÉêë= ÉñéÉÅí= íÜÉ= oj_= íç= ëí~êí=          =
~ééêÉÅá~íáåÖ= ~Ö~áåëí= íÜÉ= rp= Ççää~ê= ~ÑíÉê=        =
çîÉê= ~= óÉ~ê= ~åÇ= ~= Ü~äÑ= çÑ= ëí~ÄäÉ= oj_Lrpa=
ê~íÉëK= RMB= ÉñéÉÅí= íÜÉ= oj_= íç= ~ééêÉÅá~íÉ=        China Financial Index - Composition
çîÉê=íÜÉ=ÅçãáåÖ=S=ãçåíÜë=Åçãé~êÉÇ=íç=PPB=             The SEB China Financial Index in March had a value
áå= pÉéíÉãÄÉêK= eçïÉîÉêI= ~å= Éèì~ääó= ä~êÖÉ=         of 65, indicating a positive attitude. A value of 50
                                                      would indicate a neutral view. The index is based on
éÉêÅÉåí~ÖÉÓ=RMB=J=ëíáää=ÄÉäáÉîÉ=íÜ~í=íÜÉ=oj_=         four components with the following ranking in this
ïáää= êÉã~áå= ëí~ÄäÉ= ~Ö~áåëí= íÜÉ= Ççää~êK= ^=       survey: General Business Situation – 66, Profit
ëí~ÄäÉ= oj_Lrpa= ÉñÅÜ~åÖÉ= ê~íÉ= áë= çåÉ= çÑ=         Expectations – 59, Investment Plans – 70, and
                                                      Employment Plans – 63. (see the graph on page 1)
íÜÉ= ã~áå= êÉ~ëçåë= ïÜó= ~ë= ã~åó= ~ë= TQB= çÑ=
kçêíÜÉêå=bìêçéÉ~å=Åçãé~åáÉë=ìëÉ=íÜÉ=rpa=              =
~ë= íÜÉáê= ã~áå= íê~ÇáåÖ= ÅìêêÉåÅó= áå= `Üáå~I=       =
ïÜáÅÜ= áë= ~Åíì~ääó= ìé= Ñêçã= TMB= áå= çìê= ä~ëí=
ëìêîÉóK= OQB= ìëÉ= íÜÉ= bro= ~åÇ= çåäó= OB=
~åëïÉêÉÇ= íÜ~í= íÜÉó= ìëÉ= pÅ~åÇáå~îá~å=
ÅìêêÉåÅáÉëK= páåÅÉ= Éñ~Åíäó= ëáñ= ãçåíÜë= ~ÖçI=
SEB Shanghai 16 March 2010                                                                                                                                                        5




                  1. Business Conditions                                                            5. Average Outstanding A/R
60%                                                                                     50%

                                                                                        45%
50%
                                                                                        40%

40%                                                                                     35%

                                                                                        30%
30%
                                                                                        25%

20%                                                                                     20%

                                                                                        15%
10%                                                                                     10%

                                                                                            5%
    0%
              Very        Favourable     Average        Not so          Very                0%
           favourable                                 favourable    unfavourable
                                                                                    =             0-30 days        30-60 days      60-90 days     90-120 days      >120 days
                                                                                                                                                                                  =
=                                                                                       =
          2. Fixed Asset Investment Plans                                                                         6. Funding Needs
    70%                                                                                     70%

    60%                                                                                     60%

    50%
                                                                                            50%

    40%
                                                                                            40%
    30%
                                                                                            30%
    20%
                                                                                            20%
    10%
                                                                                            10%
    0%
              Major          Modest         No           Minor          Major               0%
           investments    investments   investments   divestments    divestments
                                                                                    =                    Increase                 Be Unchanged                 Decrease
                                                                                                                                                                                  =

                    3. Profit Expectations                                                                     7. RMB against USD
70%                                                                                     70%

60%                                                                                     60%

50%
                                                                                        50%

40%
                                                                                        40%
30%
                                                                                        30%
20%
                                                                                        20%
10%
                                                                                        10%
    0%
            Improve        Improve       Remain       Deteriorate    Deteriorate            0%
          Considerably                  Unchanged                   Considerably
                                                                                    =                 Weaker RMB                Unchanged RMB               Stronger RMB
                                                                                                                                                                                  =

                 4. Number of Employees                                                                     8. RMB Interest Rates
60%                                                                                     80%

50%                                                                                     70%

                                                                                        60%
40%
                                                                                        50%

30%                                                                                     40%

20%                                                                                     30%

                                                                                        20%
10%
                                                                                        10%

    0%                                                                                      0%
           Increase        Increase      Remain        Decline        Decline                     Interest rates will fall   Interest rates will go up   Interest rates will be
          Significantly                 Unchanged                   Significantly
                                                                                    =                                                                         unchanged
                                                                                                                                                                                  =
SEB Shanghai 16 March 2010                                                                                                                                                                                            6




               9. Main Trading Currency                                                                             11. Main Concerns
                                                                                                80%
80%
                                                                                                70%
70%                                                                                             60%
                                                                                                50%
60%
                                                                                                40%
50%                                                                                             30%

40%                                                                                             20%
                                                                                                10%
30%                                                                                              0%

20%




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                    10. Hedging Strategy                                                                                      12. Main Index
40%                                                                                    90.0

35%                                                                                    80.0

30%                                                                                    70.0

25%                                                                                    60.0
20%                                                                                    50.0
15%                                                                                    40.0
10%                                                                                    30.0
    5%                                                                                 20.0
    0%
                                                                                       10.0
           Hedge most     Hedge some     Never hedge    Hedging is    Have no FX
         flows on-shore flows on-shore                   done by        flows
                                                                                                 Index value               Business                Investment              Employees                        Profit
                                                                                                                            climate                   plans
                                                       headquarters
                                                                                   =                                                                                                                                  =


Source: SEB Shanghai. Grey stacks are indicating
companies’ answers in March 2009, and September 2009
SEB Shanghai 16 March 2010                                                                    7




                                                      =           =
          Financial Data
=
=
Macro Data (% changes)             2005     2006             2007        2008        2009
GDP                                10.4      11.6            13.0         9.6         8.7
CPI                                 1.8       1.5             4.8         5.9        -0.7
Industry Output                    16.4      16.6            18.5        12.9        11.0
Exports                            18.2      24.7            21.7        17.3       -16.0
Imports                            22.2      13.9            25.7        18.5       -11.2

On-shore deposit rates, major currencies, below 3m USD equivalent
On-shore interest rates (%)     Current        3M              6M          9M        12M
USD                             0.0500    0.1600          0.7500      0.8500      1.0000
EUR                             0.1000    1.0000          1.1250      1.1875      1.2500
JPY                             0.0001    0.0100          0.0100      0.0100      0.0100
HKD                             0.0100    0.1500          0.5000      0.6250      0.7500

RMB Interest Rates (PBOC Regulated)
PBOC Rate 100311 (%)              < 6M    6M-1Y            1Y-3Y       3Y-5Y         > 5Y
Lending Rates                      4.86      5.31             5.4        5.76        5.94
PBOC Rate 100311 (%)            Current        3M              6M          1Y          2Y
Deposit Rates                      0.36      1.71            1.98        2.25        2.79

FX Indicative Spot and Forward Rates
                                          11/Jun/10       11/Sep/10   11/Dec/10   11/Mar/11
FX                               11/Mar        3M              6M          9M        12M
USD/CNY                          6.826     6.824           6.812       6.792       6.753
EUR/CNY                          9.320     9.323           9.315       9.272       9.224
GBP/CNY                         10.226    10.221          10.201      10.168      10.105
JPY/CNY                          7.551     7.553           7.544       7.526       7.490
HKD/CNY                          0.880     0.879           0.878       0.875       0.870
SEK/CNY                          0.957     0.957          10.955       0.953       0.947
DKK/CNY                          1.253     1.250           1.250       1.246       1.239
NOK/CNY                          1.162     1.163           1.161       1.157       1.150

All indicative rates as per 2010-03-11


For further information please contact SEB Shanghai's Trading Room:
stella.peng@seb.se or +86 21 5396 6081

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SEB Shanghai Financial Index Rises as Business Confidence in China Improves

  • 1. China Financial Index SEB Shanghai Branch 16 March 2010 Investments up as business climate improves - But profit expectations fall as margins deteriorate = = = pÉåáçê= ã~å~ÖÉêë= ~í= kçêíÜÉêå= bìêçéÉ~å= få= pb_Ûë= `Üáå~= cáå~åÅá~ä= pìêîÉóI= ëÉåáçê= ëìÄëáÇá~êáÉë= áå= `Üáå~= ÑçêÉëÉÉ= ~= ÅçåíáåìÉÇ= ã~å~ÖÉêë= Ñêçã= ~êçìåÇ= RM= ëìÄëáÇá~êáÉë= çÑ= áãéêçîÉãÉåí= áå= ÄìëáåÉëë= éêçëéÉÅíë= çå= íÜÉ= ã~àçê= kçêÇáÅ= ~åÇ= dÉêã~å= Åçãé~åáÉë= áå= `ÜáåÉëÉ= ã~êâÉíK= ^äãçëí= Ü~äÑ= çÑ= íÜÉ= `Üáå~= ïÉêÉ= ~ëâÉÇ= ~Äçìí= íÜÉáê= ÉñéÉÅí~íáçåë= êÉëéçåÇÉåíë= ÉñéÉÅí= íÜÉáê= ÄìëáåÉëë= ëáíì~íáçå= çÑ= íÜÉáê= çïå= ÄìëáåÉëë= ~ë= ïÉää= ~ë= íÜÉ= ã~Åêç= íç= áãéêçîÉ= ÑìêíÜÉê= ~åÇ= OMB= ÉñéÉÅí= áí= íç= ~åÇ= Ñáå~åÅá~ä= ÉåîáêçåãÉåíK= lîÉê~ääI= áãéêçîÉ=ëáÖåáÑáÅ~åíäóK= ã~å~ÖÉêë= ÄÉäáÉîÉ= íÜ~í= íÜÉ= ÉÅçåçãó= ïáää= = ÅçåíáåìÉ= íç= áãéêçîÉ= ~åÇ= ~êÉ= ãçîáåÖ= Ñêçã= `çãé~åáÉë= ~êÉ= åçï= ëí~êíáåÖ= íç= áåîÉëí= áå= íÜÉ= éêÉîáçìë= ““Å~êÉÑìääó= Éñé~åÇÒ= ëíê~íÉÖó= `Üáå~= ~Ö~áå= ïáíÜ= SRB= éä~ååáåÖ= ãçÇÉëí= íÜ~í=ã~åó=Åçãé~åáÉë=~ÇçéíÉÇ=áå=pÉéíÉãÄÉê= áåîÉëíãÉåí= ~åÇ= NUB= éä~ååáåÖ= ã~àçê= íçï~êÇë= ~= ãçêÉ= ~ÖÖêÉëëáîÉ= Éñé~åëáçå= áå= áåîÉëíãÉåíë= áå= íÜÉ= ÅçãáåÖ= ëáñ= ãçåíÜëK= `Üáå~K= oÉÅêìáíãÉåí=éä~åë=~äëç=ÅçåíáåìÉ=íç=áåÅêÉ~ëÉK= = = =få= íÜÉ= ãÉ~åíáãÉI= ãçåÉí~êó= éçäáÅáÉë= ~êÉ= eçïÉîÉêI=éêçÑáí=ÉñéÉÅí~íáçåë=~êÉ=äçïÉê=íÜ~å= ÉñéÉÅíÉÇ=íç=ÄÉ=íáÖÜíÉêK=jçêÉ=íÜ~å=íïç=íÜáêÇë= éêÉîáçìëäóI= áåÇáÅ~íáåÖ= Ñ~ääáåÖ= ã~êÖáåë= ~ë= ÉñéÉÅí= áåíÉêÉëí= ê~íÉ= ÜáâÉë= ~åÇ= Ü~äÑ= çÑ= íÜÉ= ÜáÖÜÉê= ã~åìÑ~ÅíìêáåÖ= Åçëíë= Å~ååçí= ÄÉ= êÉëéçåÇÉåíë= ÉñéÉÅí= íÜÉ= oj_= íç= ëí~êí= íç= ÅçãéäÉíÉäó= é~ëëÉÇ= çå= íç= ÅäáÉåíë= ~åÇ= ~ééêÉÅá~íÉ=~Ö~áåëí=íÜÉ=rpJÇçää~êK= ÇçãÉëíáÅ=ÅçãéÉíáíáçå=áåÅêÉ~ëÉK= = = = Our conclusions pb_Ûë=`Üáå~=cáå~åÅá~ä=fåÇÉñ=êÉ~ÅÜÉÇ=SR=áå= = jìäíáå~íáçå~ä= Åçãé~åáÉë= ~êÉ= ãçîáåÖ= Ä~Åâ= íç= pÉéíÉãÄÉêI=ìé=Ñêçã=SO=áå=pÉéíÉãÄÉêK== = ~å= Éñé~åëáçå= ãçÇÉ= çå=íÜÉ= `ÜáåÉëÉ= ã~êâÉí ~ë= = SEB’s China Financial Index = íÜÉ= Åçìåíêó= ÅçåíáåìÉë= íç= êÉéçêí= ÜáÖÜ= ÖêçïíÜK= = táíÜ= ÜáÖÜÉê= ê~ï= ã~íÉêá~ä= éêáÅÉëI ~åÇ= ~= 90.0 = ëíêçåÖÉê= oj_I= ã~åìÑ~ÅíìêáåÖ= Åçãé~åáÉë= ~êÉ= 80.0 70.0 = ÉñéÉÅíáåÖ íç= Ñ~ÅÉ= êáëáåÖ= áåéìí= ÅçëíëI= ïÜáäÉ= 60.0 = çîÉêÅ~é~Åáíó= ~åÇ= ÅçãéÉíáíáçå= áå= ~äãçëí= ÉîÉêó= 50.0 = ã~åìÑ~ÅíìêáåÖ=ëÉÅíçê=äáãáíë=íÜÉ=~Äáäáíó=çÑ=Ñáêãë= 40.0 = íç=ê~áëÉ=Ñáå~ä=ÖççÇë=éêáÅÉëK=qÜ~í=ëÜçìäÇ=ÄÉ=íÜÉ= 30.0 = ãçëí= äçÖáÅ~ä= êÉ~ëçå= ÄÉÜáåÇ= Ç~ãéÉåÉÇ= éêçÑáí= 20.0 = éêçëéÉÅíë=~ãçåÖ=êÉëéçåÇÉåíë=áå=íÜáë=ëìêîÉóK= 10.0 = Index value Business climate Investment plans Employees Profit cêÉÇêáâ=e®ÜåÉä= pçìêÅÉW=pb_=pÜ~åÖÜ~áK=dêÉó=ëí~Åâë=ëÜçï=êÉëìäíë=áå=j~êÅÜ=~åÇ=pÉéíÉãÄÉêI=OMMV= ÑêÉÇêáâKÜ~ÜåÉä]ëÉÄKëÉI=íÉäW=HUS=ON=RPVS=SSUN= This report is produced by Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (publ) for institutional investors only. Information and opinions contained within this document are given in good faith and are based on sources believed to be reliable, we do not represent that they are accurate or complete. No liability is accepted for any direct or consequential loss resulting from reliance on this document. Changes may be made to opinions or information contained herein without notice. Any US person wishing to obtain further information about this report should contact the New York branch of the Bank which has distributed this report in the US. Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (publ) is a member of London Stock Exchange. It is regulated by the Securities and Futures Authority for the conduct of investment business in the UK.
  • 2. SEB Shanghai 16 March 2010 2 ëí~íáëíáÅëW= qÜÉ= j~êâáí= mjf= áåÇÉñ= Ñçê= Confidence High ã~åìÑ~ÅíìêáåÖ= áåéìí= éêáÅÉë= Ü~ë= ÄÉÉå= China leading growth in 2010 ÅäáãÄáåÖ=ëíÉ~ÇáäóI=íç=SVKV=áå=aÉÅÉãÄÉê=Ñêçã= = QQKP= áå= j~óK= jçêÉ= íÜ~å= Ü~äÑ= çÑ= íÜÉ= `Üáå~Ûë=ÉÅçåçãó=ÖêÉï=Äó=UKTB=áå=OMMV=~åÇ= êÉëéçåÇÉåíë= áå= çìê= ëìêîÉó= Ü~îÉ= pb_Ûë= ÑçêÉÅ~ëí= áë= íÜ~í= `Üáå~= ïáää= Öêçï= Äó= ã~åìÑ~ÅíìêáåÖ=áå=`Üáå~K== NMKRB=áå=OMNM=~åÇ=Äó=VB=áå=OMNNK=`Üáå~=ïáää= = íÜÉêÉÄó=ëÜçï=íÜÉ=ÜáÖÜÉëí=ÖêçïíÜ=é~ÅÉ=çÑ=~ää= The RMB will appreciate vs. the USD ã~àçê=ã~êâÉíë=áå=íÜÉ=ïçêäÇK=qÜáë=áë=áå=ëí~êâ= again; interest rates are on their way up Åçåíê~ëí=íç=íÜÉ=rpI=bìêçéÉ=~åÇ=g~é~å=ïÜáÅÜ= = ~êÉ= ~ää= ëíáää= ëíêìÖÖäáåÖ= áå= íÜÉ= ï~âÉ= çÑ= íÜÉ= ^äíÜçìÖÜ= `ÜáåÉëÉ= çÑÑáÅá~äë= Ü~îÉ= Ñáå~åÅá~ä=ÅêáëáëK=qÜÉ=âÉó=íç=ÖêçïíÜ=Ü~ë=ÄÉÉå= ÉãéÜ~ëáòÉÇ= íÜ~í= ~= ëí~ÄäÉ= EáKÉK= åçí= ÑáëÅ~ä= ëíáãìäìë= Ñáå~åÅÉÇ= Äó= ÜìÖÉ= Ä~åâ= ~ééêÉÅá~íáåÖF= oj_= áë= áå= `Üáå~Ûë= áåíÉêÉëíë= äÉåÇáåÖK= ^í= íÜÉ= êÉÅÉåí= k~íáçå~ä= mÉçéäÉÛë= ~åÇ= íÜ~í= íÜÉ= Åçìåíêó= ïáää= åçí= ÖáîÉ= áå= íç= `çåÖêÉëëI= íÜÉ= ÖçîÉêåãÉåí= ~ëëìêÉÇ= ã~êâÉíë= éêÉëëìêÉ= Ñêçã= çíÜÉê= ÅçìåíêáÉë= íç= äÉí= íÜÉ= íÜ~í= áí= ïáää= ã~áåí~áå= áíë= Éñé~åëáçå~êó= ÅìêêÉåÅó= ëíêÉåÖíÜÉåI= íÜÉêÉ= ~êÉ= ã~åó= ëáÖåë= ãçåÉí~êó= ~åÇ= ÑáëÅ~ä= éçäáÅáÉëI= ÉîÉå= ~ë= íÜÉ= íÜ~í=íÜÉ=oj_=ïáää=áå=Ñ~Åí=ëí~êí=íç=ëíêÉåÖíÜÉå= ÖçîÉêåãÉåí= ~ííÉãéíë= íç= í~ÅâäÉ= êáëâë= çÑ= ÇìêáåÖ= OMNMK= oÉÅÉåíäóI= wÜçì= uá~çÅÜì~åI= çîÉêÜÉ~íáåÖ= áå= íÜÉ= ÉÅçåçãó= Äó= ÑáåÉ= íìåáåÖ= ÖçîÉêåçê= çÑ= `Üáå~Ûë= `Éåíê~ä= _~åâI= éçäáÅáÉë= ~åÇ= ÅçåíêçääáåÖ= áåÑê~ëíêìÅíìêÉ= ÇÉëÅêáÄÉÇ= íÜÉ= ÅìêêÉåí= éÉÖ= íç= íÜÉ= rp= Ççää~ê= áåîÉëíãÉåí== ~ë= íÉãéçê~êóI= äÉ~ÇáåÖ= íç= ã~êâÉí= = ÅçåÅäìëáçåë=íÜ~í=`Üáå~=ïáää=áå=Ñ~Åí=ÅçåíáåìÉ= = íç= äÉí= íÜÉ= ÅìêêÉåÅó= ëíêÉåÖíÜÉå= ~Ö~áåëí= íÜÉ= = rp=Ççää~ê=~ÑíÉê=~=Ü~äí=áå=~ééêÉÅá~íáçåë=ëáåÅÉ= = ^ìÖìëí=OMMUK=e~äÑ=çÑ=íÜÉ=êÉëéçåÇÉåíë=áå=íÜáë= = ëìêîÉó= ÉñéÉÅí= ~å= ~ééêÉÅá~íáçå= ~åÇ= íÜÉ= NO= = ãçåíÜë=éêáÅÉ=áå=íÜÉ=kac=ã~êâÉí=áë=~í=SKSPK= = = = China USD/CNY & NDF 12-mth = 8.50 = 8.25 = 8.00 = USD/CNY 7.75 = USD/CNY 7.50 = 7.25 = = 7.00 = = 6.75 pçìêÅÉW=pb_I=kçêÇáÅ=lìíäççâI=pÉéíÉãÄÉê=OMNM= 12-mth NDF = 6.50 tÜáäÉ=~ää=áåÇáÅ~íçêë=áå=íÜáë=ëìêîÉó=éçáåí=~í=~= 6.25 ÅçåíáåìÉÇ= áãéêçîáåÖ= ÄìëáåÉëë= Åäáã~íÉ= áå= 05 06 07 08 09 10 `Üáå~I= éêçÑáí= éêçëéÉÅíë= Ü~îÉ= Ñ~ääÉå= ëáåÅÉ= pÉéíÉãÄÉêK= = ^åÉÅÇçí~ä= ÉîáÇÉåÅÉ= Ñêçã= SUB= çÑ= ã~å~ÖÉêë= ~êÉ= ÉñéÉÅíáåÖ= áåíÉêÉëí= ÇáëÅìëëáçåë= ïáíÜ= çìê= ÅäáÉåíë= ïáíÜáå= íÜÉ= ê~íÉë= íç= áåÅêÉ~ëÉ= áå= íÜÉ= ÅçãáåÖ= S= ãçåíÜëK= ã~åìÑ~ÅíìêáåÖ= áåÇìëíêó= áåÇáÅ~íÉë= íÜ~í= íÜáë= qÜÉ=áåÑä~íáçå=ÑáÖìêÉ=Ñçê=cÉÄêì~êó=Å~ãÉ=áå=~í= áë=ã~áåäó=ÇìÉ=íç=êáëáåÖ=áåéìí=ÅçëíëK=^ë=ÑáÉêÅÉ= OKTBI= ìé= Ñêçã= NKRB= áå= g~åì~êóK= jçëí= ÅçãéÉíáíáçå= ~åÇ= çîÉêëìééäó= áå= ã~åó= ÉÅçåçãáëíë=ÄÉäáÉîÉ=íÜ~í=íÜáë=áå=ÅçãÄáå~íáçå= ã~åìÑ~ÅíìêáåÖ= ëÉÅíçêë= ~êÉ= âÉÉéáåÖ= Ñáå~ä= ïáíÜ= çîÉêÜÉ~íáåÖ= áå= íÜÉ= éêçéÉêíó= ã~êâÉí= ÖççÇë= éêáÅÉë= ÇçïåI= íÜáë= êÉëìäíë= áå= Ñ~ääáåÖ= ïáää= äÉ~Ç= íç= ëÉîÉê~ä= ê~íÉ= ÜáâÉë= Äó= íÜÉ= ã~êÖáåë=ïÜáÅÜ=ëÉÉãë=íç=ÄÉ=~=êáëáåÖ=ÅçåÅÉêå= mÉçéäÉÛë= _~åâ= çÑ= `Üáå~= ÇìêáåÖ= OMNMK= qÜÉ= Ñçê= Åçãé~åáÉëK= qÜáë= áë= ÑìêíÜÉê= éêçîÉå= Äó= çåÉ=óÉ~ê=äÉåÇáåÖ=ê~íÉ=íçÇ~ó=áë=RKPNBK=
  • 3. SEB Shanghai 16 March 2010 3 = Survey Results Subject: Employee Structure = bîÉå= áå= íÜÉ= ãáÇÇäÉ= çÑ= íÜÉ= Ñáå~åÅá~ä= ÅêáëáëI= Information about the Survey íÜÉêÉ=ïÉêÉ=åç=ã~àçê=ä~óJçÑÑë=~ãçåÖ=ÑçêÉáÖå= The SEB China Financial Survey is based on input Åçãé~åáÉë=áå=`Üáå~K=^ë=ã~å~ÖÉêë=áå=kçêíÜ= from CEOs and CFOs at 50 subsidiaries of major Swedish, Danish, Finnish, Norwegian and German bìêçéÉ~å= Åçãé~åáÉë= ÄÉÅçãÉ= áåÅêÉ~ëáåÖäó= companies. Most of the companies have a global ÄìääáëÜI= íÜÉó= ~êÉ= åçï= éä~ååáåÖ= íç= áåÅêÉ~ëÉ= turnover of over EUR 500 million. The survey is web- ëí~ÑÑ= ÑìêíÜÉêK= RRB= éä~å= íç= áåÅêÉ~ëÉ= ëí~ÑÑ= based and confidential and was carried out during the åìãÄÉêë= ~åÇ= SB= ~êÉ= éä~ååáåÖ= ëáÖåáÑáÅ~åí= period March 1 – 10, 2010. áåÅêÉ~ëÉëK=qÜáë=Å~å=ÄÉ=Åçãé~êÉÇ=íç=QPB=~åÇ= = TB=êÉëéÉÅíáîÉäó=áå=pÉéíÉãÄÉê=ä~ëí=óÉ~êK== = EpÉÉ=Öê~éÜ=Q=çå=é~ÖÉ=RF= = = = = Subject: Business Climate / Profit Subject: Fixed Asset Investment Plans Expectations qÜÉ= åìãÄÉê= çÑ= Åçãé~åáÉë= éä~ååáåÖ= kçêíÜÉêå=bìêçéÉ~å=ëìÄëáÇá~êó=ã~å~ÖÉêë=áå= áåîÉëíãÉåíë= Ü~ë= Ñáå~ääó= ëí~êíÉÇ= íç= áåÅêÉ~ëÉK= `Üáå~=Ü~îÉ=~å=áåÅêÉ~ëáåÖäó=éçëáíáîÉ=îáÉï=çÑ= få= íÜáë= ëìêîÉóI= SRB= ~êÉ= éä~ååáåÖ= ãçÇÉëí= íÜÉ= ÄìëáåÉëë= Åäáã~íÉ= Ñçê= íÜÉ= ÅçãáåÖ= ëáñ= áåîÉëíãÉåíë= ~ë= Åçãé~êÉÇ= íç= RMB= áå= ãçåíÜëI= Åçãé~êÉÇ= íç= ëáñ= ãçåíÜë= ~ÖçK= QUB= pÉéíÉãÄÉêI= ~åÇ= íÜÉ= éÉêÅÉåí~ÖÉ= çÑ= EQSB= áå= pÉéíÉãÄÉêF= çÑ= Åçãé~åáÉë= ÉñéÉÅí= Åçãé~åáÉë=éä~ååáåÖ=ëáÖåáÑáÅ~åí=áåîÉëíãÉåíë= ÄìëáåÉëë=ÅçåÇáíáçåë=íç=ÄÉ=Ñ~îçê~ÄäÉ=çîÉê=íÜÉ= Ü~ë= áåÅêÉ~ëÉÇ= íç= NUB= Ñêçã= NNB= áå= ÅçãáåÖ=ëáñ=ãçåíÜë=~åÇ=OMB=ETB=áå=j~êÅÜF= pÉéíÉãÄÉêK= qÜáë= áë= áåÇáÅ~íáåÖ= ~= ëÜáÑí= áå= ÄÉäáÉîÉ=íÜÉó=ïáää=ÄÉ=îÉêó=Ñ~îçê~ÄäÉK=låäó=UB= `Üáå~= ëíê~íÉÖáÉë= ~ãçåÖ= kçêíÜ= bìêçéÉ~å= ÄÉäáÉîÉ=íÜ~í=ÅçåÇáíáçåë=ïáää=ÄÉ=ìåÑ~îçê~ÄäÉK= Åçãé~åáÉë= íÜ~í= ëÉÉã= íç= ÄÉ= ãçîáåÖ= Ñêçã= qÜáë=Å~å=ÄÉ=Åçãé~êÉÇ=íç=NNB=áå=pÉéíÉãÄÉê= ““Å~êÉÑìääó=Éñé~åÇáåÖÒ=íç=~=ãçêÉ=~ÖÖêÉëëáîÉ= ~åÇ=PRB=çåÉ=óÉ~ê=~ÖçK=kç=Åçãé~åó=ÉñéÉÅíë= ëíê~íÉÖóK= fåîÉëíãÉåí= ÇÉÅáëáçåë= ~êÉ= ãçëíäó= îÉêó=ìåÑ~îçê~ÄäÉ=ÅçåÇáíáçåëK= í~âÉå= çå= ÜÉ~Çèì~êíÉê= äÉîÉä= ~åÇ= ïÜÉå= = ãìäíáå~íáçå~ä= Åçãé~åáÉë= Åçãé~êÉ= ã~êâÉí= tÜÉå=~ëâÉÇ=~Äçìí=éêçÑáí=ÉñéÉÅí~íáçåëI=ROB= éêçëéÉÅíë= Ñçê= OMNMI= ÉãÉêÖáåÖ= ã~êâÉíë= ~êÉ= ÉñéÉÅí= éêçÑáíë= íç= áåÅêÉ~ëÉ= ~ë= Åçãé~êÉÇ= íç= ÉñéÉÅíÉÇ= íç= ëÜçï= íÜÉ= ÜáÖÜÉëí= ÖêçïíÜ= áå= SNB= ëáñ= ãçåíÜë= ~ÖçI= ~åÇ= åç= Åçãé~åáÉë= OMNMK=`Üáå~=áë=áå=~=Åä~ëë=çÑ=áíë=çïåI=äÉ~ÇáåÖ= ÄÉäáÉîÉ= íÜ~í= éêçÑáíë= ïáää= áãéêçîÉ= íÜÉ=êÉÅçîÉêóK= ÅçåëáÇÉê~Ääó= EÅçãé~êÉÇ= íç= QB= áå= =EpÉÉ=Öê~éÜ=O=çå=é~ÖÉ=RF= pÉéíÉãÄÉêFK= NQB= ÉñéÉÅí= Ñ~ääáåÖ= éêçÑáíë= EQB= = áå=pÉéíÉãÄÉêFK= = = Subject: Average Outstanding Account dêçïíÜ= áå= OMMV= ÉåÇÉÇ= ~í= UKTB= ~åÇ= ãçëí= Receivables days ÑáÖìêÉë=éçáåí=~í=ÅçåíáåìÉÇ=ëíêçåÖ=ÖêçïíÜ=áå= cçêÉáÖå=Åçãé~åáÉë=çÑíÉå=ÜáÖÜäáÖÜí=é~óãÉåí= `Üáå~K= `ÜáåÉëÉ= Éñéçêíë= EçÑ= ïÜáÅÜ= íÉêãë= ~åÇ= íÜÉ= áëëìÉ= çÑ= ~Åíì~ääó= ÄÉáåÖ= é~áÇ= ~ééêçñáã~íÉäó=SMB=~êÉ=éêçÇìÅÉÇ=Äó=ÑçêÉáÖå= çå= íáãÉ= ~ë= çåÉ= çÑ= íÜÉ= ã~áå= ÅÜ~ääÉåÖÉë= áå= áåîÉëíÉÇ=Åçãé~åáÉëF=êçëÉ=QRKTB=áå=cÉÄêì~êó= `Üáå~K= _~ëÉÇ= çå= íÜáë= ëìêîÉóI= çåäó= ~= ëã~ää= Åçãé~êÉÇ= íç= íÜÉ= ë~ãÉ= ãçåíÜ= ä~ëí= óÉ~êK= ãáåçêáíó= çÑ= kçêÇáÅ= ~åÇ= dÉêã~å= Åçêéçê~íÉë= ^äíÜçìÖÜ= íÜÉ= ëáÖåáÑáÅ~åí= áåÅêÉ~ëÉ= áë= ã~áåäó= Ü~îÉ= ~îÉê~ÖÉ= çìíëí~åÇáåÖ= ~ÅÅçìåí= ÇìÉ= íç= Ä~ëÉ= ÉÑÑÉÅíëI= ãçëí= ~å~äóëíë= ÉñéÉÅí= êÉÅÉáî~ÄäÉ= Ç~óë= çÑ= ãçêÉ= íÜ~å= VM= Ç~óëK= qÜÉ= Éñéçêí= ÑáÖìêÉë= íç= Öê~Çì~ääó= êÉÅçîÉê= ÇìêáåÖ= çåäó= ëí~íáëíáÅ~ääó= ëáÖåáÑáÅ~åí= ÅÜ~åÖÉ= áë= íÜ~í= OMNMK= oÉí~áä= ë~äÉë= áåÅêÉ~ëÉÇ= OOKNB= áå= é~óãÉåí= íÉêãë= ëÉÉã= íç= ÄÉ= ëÜçêíÉê= íÜ~å= cÉÄêì~êó= ïÜáÅÜ= áë= QB= ÜáÖÜÉê= íÜ~å= ã~êâÉí= éêÉîáçìëäóK= OQB= çÑ= êÉëéçåÇÉåíë= åçï= Ü~îÉ= ÉñéÉÅí~íáçåëK= mçëëáÄäÉ= êÉ~ëçåë= ÄÉÜáåÇ= PM= Ç~óë= ~îÉê~ÖÉ= é~óãÉåí= íÉêãë= Åçãé~êÉÇ= Ñ~ääáåÖ= éêçÑáí= ÉñéÉÅí~íáçåë= ~êÉ= ÇáëÅìëëÉÇ= çå= íç=NSB=ëáñ=ãçåíÜë=~ÖçK= é~ÖÉë=N=~åÇ=OK= EpÉÉ=Öê~éÜ=R=çå=é~ÖÉ=RF E^äëç=ëÉÉ=Öê~éÜë=N=~åÇ=PI=éK=RF=
  • 4. SEB Shanghai 16 March 2010 4 Subject: Funding Needs= pÉéíÉãÄÉê= NNI= ìé= ìåíáä= j~êÅÜ= NNI= íÜÉ= oj_= cìåÇáåÖ= åÉÉÇë= ~êÉ= çå= íÜÉ= êáëÉK= qçÇ~óI= QOB= Ü~ë= ~ééêÉÅá~íÉÇ= Äó= TKMQB= ~Ö~áåëí= íÜÉ= broI= çÑ=ã~å~ÖÉêë=~êÉ=ÉñéÉÅíáåÖ=ÑìåÇáåÖ=åÉÉÇë=íç= NKVVB= ~Ö~áåëí= íÜÉ= pbhI= SKTMB= ~Ö~áåëí= íÜÉ= áåÅêÉ~ëÉ= áå= íÜÉ= ÅçãáåÖ= ëáñ= ãçåíÜëI= ~ë= ahh= ~åÇ= ÇÉéêÉÅá~íÉÇ= MKPQB= ~Ö~áåëí= íÜÉ= Åçãé~êÉÇ= íç= PPB= ëáñ= ãçåíÜë= ~ÖçK= RSB= çÑ= klhK=qÜÉ=Ñ~Åí=íÜ~í=ëç=ã~åó=Åçãé~åáÉë=~êÉ= ã~å~ÖÉêë= ÉñéÉÅí= ÑìåÇáåÖ= åÉÉÇë= íç= êÉã~áå= ÉñéÉÅíáåÖ= íÜÉ= oj_= íç= ëí~êí= ãçîáåÖ= ~Ö~áåëí= ìåÅÜ~åÖÉÇI= ïÜÉêÉ~ë= çåäó= çåÉ= ëáåÖäÉ= íÜÉ=rpa=íÜáë=óÉ~ê==ã~ó=ÄÉ=çåÉ=êÉ~ëçå=ïÜó= Åçãé~åó= ÉñéÉÅíë= ÑìåÇáåÖ= åÉÉÇë= íç= ~ë= ã~åó= ~ë= QSB= ~êÉ= ÜÉÇÖáåÖ= ëçãÉ= çê= ãçëí= ÇÉÅêÉ~ëÉK= `çåëáÇÉêáåÖ= íÜ~í= áåîÉëíãÉåí= çÑ= íÜÉáê= cu= Ñäçïë= çå= íÜÉ= çåJëÜçêÉ= Ñçêï~êÇ= éä~åë= ~êÉ= áåÅêÉ~ëáåÖI= íÜáë= ëÉÉãë= äçÖáÅ~äK= ^í= ã~êâÉíI= ~åÇ= ~åçíÜÉê= NSB= ~êÉ= ÜÉÇÖáåÖ= îá~= íÜÉ= ë~ãÉ= íáãÉI= íÜÉ= áãéêçîÉÇ= ÄìëáåÉëë= íÜÉáê=ÜÉ~Ç=çÑÑáÅÉë=íÜêçìÖÜ=kacJÅçåíê~Åíë=K= ëáíì~íáçå=ïáíÜ=áåÅêÉ~ëÉÇ=ë~äÉë=ëÜçìäÇ=äÉ~Ç=íç= =EmäÉ~ëÉ= ëÉÉ= Öê~éÜë= T= ~åÇ= U= çå= é~ÖÉ= R= éäìë= ~=ÖêÉ~íÉê=åÉÉÇ=Ñçê=ïçêâáåÖ=Å~éáí~äK== Öê~éÜ=V=~åÇ=NM=çå=é~ÖÉ=SF= EpÉÉ=Öê~éÜ=S=çå=é~ÖÉ=RF= = = = = Subject: Main Concerns= Subject: FX and Interest Rates= qÜÉ= ã~àçê= ÅçåÅÉêå= Ñçê= äçÅ~ä= ã~å~ÖÉãÉåí= qÜÉ= îáÉï= íÜ~í= íÜÉ= `ÜáåÉëÉ= ÉÅçåçãó= áë== êÉã~áåë= ““ÅìëíçãÉê= ÇÉã~åÇÒI= ïÜáÅÜ= áë= Éñé~åÇáåÖ=Ñ~ëí=Å~å=ÄÉ=ëÉÉå=Ñêçã=ã~å~ÖÉêëÛ= ëäáÖÜíäó=ìé=Ñêçã=íÜÉ=ä~ëí=ëìêîÉó=ëáñ=ãçåíÜë= îáÉïë= çÑ= áåíÉêÉëí= ê~íÉë= ~åÇ= íÜÉ= oj_= ~ÖçK= få= pÉéíÉãÄÉêI= QUB= ê~íÉÇ= áí= ~ë= íÜÉáê= ÉñÅÜ~åÖÉ= ê~íÉK= kç= Åçãé~åó= ÄÉäáÉîÉë= íÜ~í= ã~áå= ÅçåÅÉêå= Åçãé~êÉÇ= íç= QRB= áå= j~êÅÜK= áåíÉêÉëí= ê~íÉë= ïáää= Ñ~ääI= ïÜÉêÉ~ë=SUB= ÄÉäáÉîÉ= qÜÉ= ÄáÖÖÉëí= ÅÜ~åÖÉ= Ñêçã= çìê= ä~ëí= ëìêîÉó= áë= íÜ~í= ê~íÉë= ïáää= Öç= ìéK= POB= ÉñéÉÅí= ê~íÉë= íç= íÜ~í= ~ë= ã~åó= ~ë= NPB= åçï= ëÉÉ= ““ä~Äçê= ëí~ó= ~í= ÅìêêÉåí= äÉîÉäë= áå= íÜÉ= ÅçãáåÖ= ëáñ= ëÜçêí~ÖÉÒ= ~ë= ~= ã~áå= ÅçåÅÉêå= Eìé= Ñêçã= RB= ãçåíÜëK= _çíÜ= ÇÉéçëáí= ê~íÉë= ~åÇ= äÉåÇáåÖ= ëáñ= ãçåíÜë= ~ÖçFK= qÜáë= ïçìäÇ= ÄÉ= äçÖáÅ~ä= ê~íÉë=~êÉ=êÉÖìä~íÉÇ=áå=`Üáå~=~åÇ=íÜÉ=ÅìêêÉåí= ÅçåëáÇÉêáåÖ= íÜ~í= ëç= ã~åó= Åçãé~åáÉë= ~êÉ= äÉåÇáåÖ= ê~íÉ= Ñçê= ~= NOJãçåíÜ= Ä~åâ= äç~å= áë= åçï= áåîÉëíáåÖ= ~åÇ= êÉÅêìáíáåÖI= ïÜáÅÜ= ï~ë= RKPNBK= qÜÉ= NOJãçåíÜ= ÇÉéçëáí= ê~íÉ= áë= OKORBK= åçí= ëç= ÅäÉ~êäó= íÜÉ= Å~ëÉ= ëáñ= ãçåíÜë= ~ÖçK= dáîÉå= íÜ~í= `Üáå~= Ü~Ç= ~= `mf= çÑ= OKTB= áå= líÜÉê= áëëìÉë= íÜ~í= ïÉêÉ= ãÉåíáçåÉÇ= ïÉêÉ= cÉÄêì~êóI= ÇÉéçëáí= ê~íÉë= ~êÉ= åçï= åÉÖ~íáîÉ= ““ÅçãéäÉñ= êìäÉë= ~åÇ= êÉÖìä~íáçåëÒI= ““Åçëí= çÑ= ~Ö~áåK=^äíÜçìÖÜ=íÜÉ=ÖçîÉêåãÉåí=ïáää=ãçîÉ= ê~ï=ã~íÉêá~äÒ=~åÇ=““ÑçêÉáÖå=ÉñÅÜ~åÖÉ=ê~íÉëÒK= Å~ìíáçìëäóI= ãçëí= ÉÅçåçãáëíë= ÉñéÉÅí= çåÉ= çê= ^ë= ÇáëÅìëëÉÇ= ~ÄçîÉI= ÜáÖÜÉê= ê~ï= ã~íÉêá~ä= ãçêÉ= áåíÉêÉëí= ê~íÉ= ÜáâÉë= áå= íÜÉ= ÅçãáåÖ= ëáñ= Åçëíë= ~åÇ= ~å= ÉñéÉÅíÉÇ= ~ééêÉÅá~íáçå= çÑ= íÜÉ= ãçåíÜëK= oj_=~êÉ=åÉÖ~íáîÉ=Ñ~Åíçêë=Ñçê=ã~åìÑ~ÅíìêáåÖ= = Åçãé~åáÉëK=EpÉÉ=Öê~éÜ=NN=çå=é~ÖÉ=RF= jçêÉ= ã~å~ÖÉêë= ÉñéÉÅí= íÜÉ= oj_= íç= ëí~êí= = ~ééêÉÅá~íáåÖ= ~Ö~áåëí= íÜÉ= rp= Ççää~ê= ~ÑíÉê= = çîÉê= ~= óÉ~ê= ~åÇ= ~= Ü~äÑ= çÑ= ëí~ÄäÉ= oj_Lrpa= ê~íÉëK= RMB= ÉñéÉÅí= íÜÉ= oj_= íç= ~ééêÉÅá~íÉ= China Financial Index - Composition çîÉê=íÜÉ=ÅçãáåÖ=S=ãçåíÜë=Åçãé~êÉÇ=íç=PPB= The SEB China Financial Index in March had a value áå= pÉéíÉãÄÉêK= eçïÉîÉêI= ~å= Éèì~ääó= ä~êÖÉ= of 65, indicating a positive attitude. A value of 50 would indicate a neutral view. The index is based on éÉêÅÉåí~ÖÉÓ=RMB=J=ëíáää=ÄÉäáÉîÉ=íÜ~í=íÜÉ=oj_= four components with the following ranking in this ïáää= êÉã~áå= ëí~ÄäÉ= ~Ö~áåëí= íÜÉ= Ççää~êK= ^= survey: General Business Situation – 66, Profit ëí~ÄäÉ= oj_Lrpa= ÉñÅÜ~åÖÉ= ê~íÉ= áë= çåÉ= çÑ= Expectations – 59, Investment Plans – 70, and Employment Plans – 63. (see the graph on page 1) íÜÉ= ã~áå= êÉ~ëçåë= ïÜó= ~ë= ã~åó= ~ë= TQB= çÑ= kçêíÜÉêå=bìêçéÉ~å=Åçãé~åáÉë=ìëÉ=íÜÉ=rpa= = ~ë= íÜÉáê= ã~áå= íê~ÇáåÖ= ÅìêêÉåÅó= áå= `Üáå~I= = ïÜáÅÜ= áë= ~Åíì~ääó= ìé= Ñêçã= TMB= áå= çìê= ä~ëí= ëìêîÉóK= OQB= ìëÉ= íÜÉ= bro= ~åÇ= çåäó= OB= ~åëïÉêÉÇ= íÜ~í= íÜÉó= ìëÉ= pÅ~åÇáå~îá~å= ÅìêêÉåÅáÉëK= páåÅÉ= Éñ~Åíäó= ëáñ= ãçåíÜë= ~ÖçI=
  • 5. SEB Shanghai 16 March 2010 5 1. Business Conditions 5. Average Outstanding A/R 60% 50% 45% 50% 40% 40% 35% 30% 30% 25% 20% 20% 15% 10% 10% 5% 0% Very Favourable Average Not so Very 0% favourable favourable unfavourable = 0-30 days 30-60 days 60-90 days 90-120 days >120 days = = = 2. Fixed Asset Investment Plans 6. Funding Needs 70% 70% 60% 60% 50% 50% 40% 40% 30% 30% 20% 20% 10% 10% 0% Major Modest No Minor Major 0% investments investments investments divestments divestments = Increase Be Unchanged Decrease = 3. Profit Expectations 7. RMB against USD 70% 70% 60% 60% 50% 50% 40% 40% 30% 30% 20% 20% 10% 10% 0% Improve Improve Remain Deteriorate Deteriorate 0% Considerably Unchanged Considerably = Weaker RMB Unchanged RMB Stronger RMB = 4. Number of Employees 8. RMB Interest Rates 60% 80% 50% 70% 60% 40% 50% 30% 40% 20% 30% 20% 10% 10% 0% 0% Increase Increase Remain Decline Decline Interest rates will fall Interest rates will go up Interest rates will be Significantly Unchanged Significantly = unchanged =
  • 6. SEB Shanghai 16 March 2010 6 9. Main Trading Currency 11. Main Concerns 80% 80% 70% 70% 60% 50% 60% 40% 50% 30% 40% 20% 10% 30% 0% 20% n s y d s ge s ns te te ilit tie an io io rta ra ra tit ab i m od at pe ho st de ge ul t m en om re s g n 10% om er re te ha or ym C m In b l/c d c pa to la an ex ia us d er s n s ille er 0% C le ig at m ru re Sk fm to Fo ex USD EUR Scandinavian us to pl C os om Currencies = = C C = 10. Hedging Strategy 12. Main Index 40% 90.0 35% 80.0 30% 70.0 25% 60.0 20% 50.0 15% 40.0 10% 30.0 5% 20.0 0% 10.0 Hedge most Hedge some Never hedge Hedging is Have no FX flows on-shore flows on-shore done by flows Index value Business Investment Employees Profit climate plans headquarters = = Source: SEB Shanghai. Grey stacks are indicating companies’ answers in March 2009, and September 2009
  • 7. SEB Shanghai 16 March 2010 7 = = Financial Data = = Macro Data (% changes) 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 GDP 10.4 11.6 13.0 9.6 8.7 CPI 1.8 1.5 4.8 5.9 -0.7 Industry Output 16.4 16.6 18.5 12.9 11.0 Exports 18.2 24.7 21.7 17.3 -16.0 Imports 22.2 13.9 25.7 18.5 -11.2 On-shore deposit rates, major currencies, below 3m USD equivalent On-shore interest rates (%) Current 3M 6M 9M 12M USD 0.0500 0.1600 0.7500 0.8500 1.0000 EUR 0.1000 1.0000 1.1250 1.1875 1.2500 JPY 0.0001 0.0100 0.0100 0.0100 0.0100 HKD 0.0100 0.1500 0.5000 0.6250 0.7500 RMB Interest Rates (PBOC Regulated) PBOC Rate 100311 (%) < 6M 6M-1Y 1Y-3Y 3Y-5Y > 5Y Lending Rates 4.86 5.31 5.4 5.76 5.94 PBOC Rate 100311 (%) Current 3M 6M 1Y 2Y Deposit Rates 0.36 1.71 1.98 2.25 2.79 FX Indicative Spot and Forward Rates 11/Jun/10 11/Sep/10 11/Dec/10 11/Mar/11 FX 11/Mar 3M 6M 9M 12M USD/CNY 6.826 6.824 6.812 6.792 6.753 EUR/CNY 9.320 9.323 9.315 9.272 9.224 GBP/CNY 10.226 10.221 10.201 10.168 10.105 JPY/CNY 7.551 7.553 7.544 7.526 7.490 HKD/CNY 0.880 0.879 0.878 0.875 0.870 SEK/CNY 0.957 0.957 10.955 0.953 0.947 DKK/CNY 1.253 1.250 1.250 1.246 1.239 NOK/CNY 1.162 1.163 1.161 1.157 1.150 All indicative rates as per 2010-03-11 For further information please contact SEB Shanghai's Trading Room: stella.peng@seb.se or +86 21 5396 6081