5. Pertumbuhan ekonomi dan lingkungan
• Peningkatan aktivitas ekonomi dan pendayagunaan
sumber alam menjadi kenyataan yang belum
diperhitungkan sisi perusakan dan penurunan daya
lingkungan
• Integrasi seluruh perhitungan dan penghitungan
potensi sumber alam dan seluruh mata rantainya
memerlukan suatu strategy baru
• System National Account 2008 akan diperkenalkan
secara bertahap untuk mengintegrasikan seluruh
kegiatan dan perhitungan ekonomi dengan
pemanfaatan dan neraca sumber alam yang ada
5
7. Perencanaan Bisnis dan pembangunan
• Keyakinan masa lalu bahwa neraca sumber alam kita
masih sangat berlebih harus di imbangi dengan
penghitungan berapa penurunan daya lingkungan
secara faktual
• Kecepatan dan pemborosan pemanfaatan sumber alam
justru sedang menjadi ancaman dan kerugian masa
depan
• Panduan untuk perilaku dan gagasan pembaharuan
kebijakan energy terpadu dengan seluruh proses
pemanfaatan lingkungan harus menjadi upaya baru
• Perpacuan dan perebutan lahan untuk pangan dan
Energy akan terjadi tanpa kendali kebijakan
7
8. 8
IEA Sounding the Alarm on Global GHG
Emissions
• IEA Estimates* (May 29th 2011, Guardian Article)
§ 2008: 29.3 gigatonnes of CO2
§ 2009: 29.0 “
§ 2010: 30.6 “ (highest ever)
• Small effect of the recession on emissions
• 80% of current power stations will still be in use in
2020 locking in 11.2 Gt
• Gap in scaling back on nuclear cannot be filled by
renewables à increase reliance on fossil fuels
• Continued shift to unconventional resources
*Upcoming World Energy Outlook (2011) 8
9. 9
The Unconventional Reality
Conventional 0il & Gas
Oil Shale
Tight Gas
CBM
Shale Gas
Gas Hydrate
Gas-to-liquids
Heavy Oil
Deep GasBiofuels
Costs
Energy Intensity
GHG Emissions
Tight Oil
9
10. 10
EES Technical Arm of CCEMC*
A new approach for advancing
transformative technology
• 16 projects approved in
Round #1 and #2
§ Energy Efficiency : 12 projects -
$33 M
§ Renewables: 5 projects - $38 M
§ Cleaner Energy Production and
CCS: 5 projects - $28 M
• Round 3 – announcement
shortly
• Round 4 - underway
*Climate Change & Emissions
Management Corporation 10
11. 11
EES’ Oil Sands Technology Framework - Room to
Improve LCA* Emissions
• Efficiency improvements – thermal
recovery, mining, upgrading
§ Energy intensity of water treatment for
steam
• New wave - efficient oil sands
production technologies
• Next generation upgrading
technologies - integration with
gasification and CCS
§ Partial upgrading
• Integration of renewables and nuclear
ØResearch & technology
adaptation costs
ØLarge scale deployment
ØTime horizon
ØCapacity – human,
infrastructure
*Life Cycle Analysis 11
12. 12
Impact of Increased Water Recycle on GHG Emissions
90 92 94 96 98 100
Energy(GHG)
ProducedWater Recycle Rate (%)
High TDS
Low TDS
*zero liquid discharge
EES Study:
• Assess Impact of ZLD* on energy
use
o Capital & operating costs
• New technology opportunities
• 9 Companies , ADOE, AENV, ERCB
13. 13
Our Focus - Advanced Technologies to Decrease GHG
Emissions and Water Use
Decrease Fresh water Use
DecreasingGHGEmissions
SAGD, CSS
Best-in-class SAGD
Energy Efficiency
SAGD, CSS
Steam-solvent
Electrical heating
Combustion
Non-aqueous
Extraction
Surface Minning
Energy Efficiency
refining, mining
Current
5 - 10 years
10 - 20 years
CCS
In situ and Mining
14. 14
Edmonton Waste Management Centre with MSW
Biofuels Facility
Biofuels
Facility
Advanced
Energy
Research
Facility
Courtesy: City of Edmonton
14
15. 15
MSW 100 million t/yr
Ethanol 35 million
litres/year
Biofuel Plant
• 90% reduction of landfill
• GHG reduction of more than
• 3 t of CO2 per tonne of waste
§ Eliminates methane emissions from
land sites
§ Replacement of fossil fuel/coal
§ CO2 removal and recovery
• Meets renewable fuel mandates
Advantages of Biofuel Plant
15
16. 16
Advanced Gasification & Syngas Plug-and-Play
Pilot & Bench Scale R&D Facility
• R&D for Biofuels Industry, universities & other initiatives
• Test biofuels, coal, coke and fossil-biomass blends
• Evaluate advanced membrane processes- O2, CO2, H2
• R&D on advanced syngas conversion processes
• Unique facilities can attract global players
Gasifier
Feed
System
Syngas
Cleanup
Syngas
Reformer
Acid gas
removal
CO2
Recovery
Methanol
Synthesis
Bench-scale
Research
Facility
17. 17
Long-Range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) System
• Evaluation tool for integrated resource planning and assessing
GHG mitigation impact based on set assessments/scenarios
Demand
House hold
Commercial
Industrial
Agricultural
Single detached
Single attached
Apartment
Mobile home
construction
Smelting and Refining
Petroleum refining
Cement
Chemical
Iron and Steel
Other Manufacturing
Forestry
Mining
Paper and pulp
Space heating
Water heating
Lighting-Electricity
Space cooling
Appliances
Space heating
Water heating
Lighting
Space cooling
Appliances
Refrigerator
Freezer
Dishwasher
Washer
Dryer
Range
others
Transportation
Passenger
Freight
Pipeline
Demand
House hold
Commercial
Industrial
Agricultural
Single detached
Single attached
Apartment
Mobile home
construction
Smelting and Refining
Petroleum refining
Cement
Chemical
Iron and Steel
Other Manufacturing
Forestry
Mining
Paper and pulp
Space heating
Water heating
Lighting-Electricity
Space cooling
Appliances
Space heating
Water heating
Lighting
Space cooling
Appliances
Refrigerator
Freezer
Dishwasher
Washer
Dryer
Range
others
Transportation
Passenger
Freight
Pipeline 17
18. 18
Example – Household Sector
Space heating
Water heating
Lighting
Appliances
Electric furnace
NG furnace
Heating oil furnace
Others
Wood furnace
Refrigerator
Freezer
Dishwasher
Washer
Dryer
Range
others
Electricity
Electricity
NG
House hold
Single Detached
Single attached
Apartment
Mobile
Space heating
Water heating
Lighting
Appliances
Space heating
Water heating
Lighting-Electricity
Space cooling-Electricity
Appliances
Space heating
Water heating
Lighting
Appliances
Refrigerator
Freezer
Dishwasher
Washer
Dryer
Range
others
Electric furnace
NG furnace
Heating oil furnace
Others
Wood furnace
Steam
Electricity
Electricity
Electricity
NG
Electric furnace
NG furnace
Heating oil furnace
Others
Wood furnace
Refrigerator
Freezer
Dishwasher
Washer
Dryer
Range
others
Electric furnace
NG furnace
Heating oil furnace
Others
Wood furnace
Refrigerator
Freezer
Dishwasher
Washer
Dryer
Range
others
Electricity
Electricity
NG
Space heating
Water heating
Lighting
Appliances
Electric furnace
NG furnace
Heating oil furnace
Others
Wood furnace
Refrigerator
Freezer
Dishwasher
Washer
Dryer
Range
others
Electricity
Electricity
NG
Electric furnace
NG furnace
Heating oil furnace
Others
Wood furnace
Refrigerator
Freezer
Dishwasher
Washer
Dryer
Range
others
Electric furnace
NG furnace
Heating oil furnace
Others
Wood furnace
Refrigerator
Freezer
Dishwasher
Washer
Dryer
Range
others
Electricity
Electricity
NG
Electricity
Electricity
NG
House holdHouse hold
Single Detached
Single attached
Apartment
Mobile
Space heating
Water heating
Lighting
Appliances
Space heating
Water heating
Lighting
Appliances
Space heating
Water heating
Lighting-Electricity
Space cooling-Electricity
Appliances
Space heating
Water heating
Lighting-Electricity
Space cooling-Electricity
Appliances
Space heating
Water heating
Lighting
Appliances
Space heating
Water heating
Lighting
Appliances
Refrigerator
Freezer
Dishwasher
Washer
Dryer
Range
others
Electric furnace
NG furnace
Heating oil furnace
Others
Wood furnace
Steam
Electricity
Electricity
Electricity
NG
Refrigerator
Freezer
Dishwasher
Washer
Dryer
Range
others
Electric furnace
NG furnace
Heating oil furnace
Others
Wood furnace
Steam
Electricity
Electric furnace
NG furnace
Heating oil furnace
Others
Wood furnace
Steam
Electricity
Electricity
Electricity
NG
Electricity
Electricity
NG
Electric furnace
NG furnace
Heating oil furnace
Others
Wood furnace
Refrigerator
Freezer
Dishwasher
Washer
Dryer
Range
others
Electric furnace
NG furnace
Heating oil furnace
Others
Wood furnace
Refrigerator
Freezer
Dishwasher
Washer
Dryer
Range
others
Electricity
Electricity
NG
Electric furnace
NG furnace
Heating oil furnace
Others
Wood furnace
Refrigerator
Freezer
Dishwasher
Washer
Dryer
Range
others
Electricity
Electricity
NG
ElectricityElectricity
Electricity
NG
Electricity
NG
18
19. Resource Availability &
Environmental Implications
uNear Term Resources:
“There are sufficient reserves of most types of
energy resources to last at least several
decades at current rates of use” … IPCC
uEnvironment: A major and growing issue
19
20. Energy Trends
uProjections are based on the scenarios of the
World Energy Council/IIASA and extend to 2100
uDrivers are:
u Population – 10.06 Billion in 2050, 11.65 by 2100
u Economic Activity - $75 to 100 B depending on
scenario
u Technology choices - especially acceptability of coal
and nuclear
uThree broad scenarios – A, high growth; B,
“business as usual”; C, ecologically driven
20
21. Energy History and Projections
0
10.000
20.000
30.000
40.000
50.000
60.000
70.000
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100
Year
A
B
C
GWth
21
22. Representative Scenarios
uThree of the WEC/IIASA scenarios chosen to
illustrate a range of possible energy futures:
B - BAU
A2 - highest emissions scenario
C1 - least use of nuclear
22
23. Environmental Outlook
uOnly the “Ecologically-Driven” scenarios
reduce emissions significantly
uNet emissions of energy-related Carbon are
reduced to tolerable levels by 2100
uAtmospheric CO2 concentration by 2100
stabilizes in the range of 450 to 550 ppm
uThis concentration should limit warming to
two to three degrees C
uEach of these has its own particular makeup
of energy sources
23
24. Energy Share by Source - B
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100
Other
Biomass
Solar
Nuclear
Hydro
Gas
Oil
Coal
Traditional
Year
24
27. 0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
1600 1700
1800 1900
2000
205 JT
18.314.210.8
40.2
250
275
300
285 jt
KELAHIRAN
TERCEGAH
80 JUTA
PERKEMBANGAN PENDUDUK INDONESIA
(JUTA)
KELAHIRAN
TERCEGAH
100 JUTA
330 jt
237.8 JT
2010
248.6 JT
2013
5 x lipat2 x lipat
JUTA JIWA
TAHUN
27
28. Penduduk Indonesia : Young population
Sumber: http://www.economist.com/blogs/dailychart?page=1&fsrc=scn/fb/wl/bl/dailychartjan10 (20101120_WOC951)
Indonesia
Kondisi kependudukan Indonesia
Kelompok usia produktif
15-64 tahun mencapai 66 %
atau 165 juta
Merupakan kesempatan
dan peluang konsumsi yang
luar biasa besar dan laju
pertumbuhannya cukup
tinggi
Kelompok dibawah 15
tahun yang cukup besar :
70 juta
66%
28%
6%
28
29. Lingkup
Komoditi
“Policy Paper” Undang-undang “Blueprints”
Program
5 THN 1 THN
Energi
Batubara
Minyak Bumi
Gas Bumi
Energi
Terbarukan
Panas Bumi
Nuklir
Listrik
MATRIKS KEBIJAKAN, REGULASI DAN PROGRAM
ENERGI
Kebijakan Batubara
Nasional
Kebijakan Migas
Nasional
Policy on Ren. Energy
& Energy Conserv.
2 Januari 2004
Kebijakan Panasbumi
Power Sector
Restructuring Policy
25 Agustus 1998
RUU Mineral
dan Batubara
UU 22/2001
ttg MIGAS
23 November 2001
Masuk dalam RUU
(Pemanfaatan) Energi
UU 27/2003
22 Oktober 2003
ttg Panas Bumi
RUU Ketenagalistrikan
(menggantikan UU
No.20/2002)
Roadmap Mineral
dan Batubara
Blueprint
Pengembangan Industri
Minyak dan Gas Bumi
Nasional
Roadmap Energi Hijau
Blueprint
Pengembangan dan
Pemanfaatan Energi
Panas Bumi
RUKN dan
Revisi Blueprint
yang berdasarkan
UU No.20/2002
Kebijakan Energi
Nasional
(Makro)
RUU Energi
Blueprint
Pengembangan Industri
Energi Nasional
Kebijakan
Ketenaganukliran
UU 10/1997
ttg Ketenaganukliran
Roadmap
Ketenaganukliran
DIPA
D
A
F
T
A
R
I
S
I
A
N
P
E
L
A
K
S
A
N
A
A
N
A
N
G
G
A
R
A
N
RENSTRA
(RENCANA
STRATEGIS)
SEKTOR ESDM
29
30. Kondisi
Industri
Energi
Saat Ini
2005
SUBJEK (S) OBJEK (O) METODA (M)
DPR
Menko Perekonomian
Departemen ESDM
Departemen Perhubungan
Departemen Perindustrian
Departemen Keuangan
Kementerian Ristek
Departemen Kehutanan
Kementerian LH
Perusahaan Energi
• Perusahaan Migas
• Perusahaan Listrik
• Perusahaan Tambang
BB
• Perusahaan Jasa
Konservasi Energi
Pemerintah Daerah
Masyarakat
• Hak Budget
• Koordinasi
• Regulasi Energi
• Regulasi Moda
Angkutan
• Regulasi Industri
• Regulasi Fiskal
• Kebijakan Teknologi
• Regulasi Kehutanan
• Kebijakan Lingkungan
• Ketersediaan Migas
• Energi Primer
• Ketersediaan
Batubara
• Jasa Konservasi
Energi
• Regulasi
• Kesadaran
• Pengetatan Anggaran Subsidi
• Pengembangan Infrastruktur
• Perencanaan dan Pengembangan Infrastruktur
Energi
• Intensifikasi Eksplorasi Sumber Energi
• Diversifikasi dan Konservasi Energi
• Pengawasan Biaya Pokok Penyediaan Energi
• Rasionalisasi Harga Energi
• Kebijakan Domestic Market Obligation (DMO)
• Perencanaan Umum Energi Nasional
• Elektrifikasi Kereta Api
• Penggunaan Bahan Bakar Gas untuk
Transportasi
• Pengembangan Transportasi Massa
• Efisiensi Penggunaan Energi
• Insentif Fiskal untuk EBT dan Peralatan Hemat
Energi
• Pengembangan Teknologi Produksi dan
pemanfaatan energi yang efisien
• Sinkronisasi Peruntukan Wilayah Hutan Lindung
dan Pertambangan
• Rasionalisasi Baku mutu Lingkungan
• Penyediaan dan Distribusi Migas
• Penggunaan Pembangkit Listrik Non–Minyak
• Peningkatan Produksi
• Penyediaan Jasa
• Kendaraan Umum (Non–BBM)
• Hemat Energi (BBM)
PARADIGMA NASIONAL
• PANCASILA
• UUD 1945
• UU No. 22/2001 ttg Minyak dan Gas Bumi
• UU No. 27/2003 ttg Panas Bumi
• UU No. 15/1985 ttg Ketenagalistrikan
• UU No. 36/2004 ttg APBN 2005
POLA PIKIR
PENGELOLAAN INDUSTRI ENERGI NASIONAL
Pengaruh Lingkungan Strategis
Nasional Regional Global
• Otonomi Daerah •TAGP
•ASEAN GRID
• Harga Energi Internasional
• Liberalisasi Sektor Energi
Kondisi
Industri
Energi yang
Diinginkan
2020
Tujuan
Nasional
Pengelolaan
industri
energi
belum
optimal
Pengelolaan
industri energi
optimal
30
31. Grissik Palembang
Semarang
CADANGAN DAN JARINGAN PIPA GAS
Pacific Ocean
AUSTRALIA
Indian Ocean
Bangkok
Phnom Penh
Ban Mabtapud
Ho Chi Minh
City
CAMBODIA
VIETNAM
THAILAND LAOS
Khanon
Songkhla
Erawan
Bangkot
Lawit
Jerneh
WEST
MALAYSIA
Penang
Kerteh
KualaLumpur
Manila
Philipines
South
China
Sea
Natuna
Alpha
Kota Kinibalu
BRUNEI
BandaraSeri Begawan
Bintulu
EAST
MALAYSIA
Kuching
Banda Aceh
Lhokseumawe
Medan
Duri
Padang
Jambi
Bintan
SINGAPORE
Samarinda
Balikpapan
Bontang LNG Plant
& Export Terminal
Attaka
Tunu
Bekapai
KALIMANTAN
Banjarmasin
Manado
SULAWESI
Ujung Pandang
BURU SERAM
Ternate
HALMAHERA
Sorong
IRIAN JAYA
Jakarta
J A V A Surabaya
Bangkalan
BALI SUMBAWA
Pagerungan
LOMBOK
Cirebon
FLORES
SUMBA
TIMOR
I N D O N E S I A
Duyong
West
Natuna
Port Dickson
Port Klang
Mogpu
Dumai
Batam
Guntong
52,081
3,896
728
3,220
14,260
5,190
31,814
3,654
14,782
GAS RESERVE 2P (BSCF)
TOTAL RESERVES
2P : 134,015.5 BSCF0,11
3,00
Resources
Ardjuna Fields
MADURA4,289
Existing
Pipeline
Planned
Pipeline
Jayapura
Merauke
31
32. Grissik Palembang
Semarang
Pacific Ocean
AUSTRALIA
Indian Ocean
Bangkok
Phnom Penh
Ban Mabtapud
Ho Chi Minh
City
CAMBODIA
VIETNAM
THAILAND LAOS
Khanon
Songkhla
Erawan
Bangkot
Lawit
Jerneh
WEST
MALAYSIA
Penang
Kerteh
KualaLumpur
Manila
Philipines
South
China
Sea
Natuna
Alpha
Kota Kinibalu
BRUNEI
BandaraSeri Begawan
Bintulu
EAST
MALAYSIA
Kuching
Banda Aceh
Lhokseumawe
Medan
Duri
Padang
Jambi
Bintan
SINGAPORE
Samarinda
Balikpapan
Bontang
Attaka
Tunu
Bekapai
KALIMANTAN
Banjarmasin
Manado
SULAWESI
Ujung Pandang
BURU SERAM
Ternate
HALMAHERA
Sorong
IRIAN JAYA
Jakarta
J A V A Surabaya
Bangkalan
BALI SUMBAWA
Pagerungan
LOMBOK
FLORES
SUMBA
TIMOR
I N D O N E S I A
Duyong
West
Natuna
Port Dickson
Port Klang
Mogpu
Dumai
Batam
Guntong
MADURA
PEMBANGKIT DAN TRANSMISI UTAMA LISTRIK
TOTALCAPACITY
24,000 MW
Total Jawa Bali : 18,500
MW
Total Sumatera : 3,200
MW
Total Kalimantan : 800 MW
Total Sulawesi : 650
MW
Existing
Transmission
Planned
Transmission
Power Plant
Jayapura
Merauke
32
34. ENERGI MIX NASIONAL TAHUN 2020
(SKENARIO OPTIMALISASI)
Panas bumi
5%
PLTA
4%
Batubara
38%
Gas bumi
39%
Minyak bumi
10%
Nuklir
1.231%
Biomassa
0.850%
Fuel cell
0.000%
Tenaga angin
0.000%
Tenaga surya
0.003%
PLTMH
0.308%
Biofuel
1.516%
EBT Lainnya
4%
SASARAN ENERGI MIX NASIONAL 2020
ENERGI MIX NASIONAL TAHUN 2000
Batubara
11%
Gas bumi
31%
Minyak bumi
53%
Tenaga air
4%
Panas bumi
1%
ENERGI MIX NASIONAL TAHUN 2020
(SKENARIO BaU)
Batubara
34%
Gas bumi
26%
Minyak bumi
35%
Tenaga air
4%
Panas bumi
1%
OPTIMALISASI
PENGELOLAAN
ENERGI
34
35. -
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
%
SASARAN OPTIMALISASI PENGELOLAAN
ENERGI NASIONAL
MINYAK BUMI
GAS BUMI
BATUBARA
EBT LAINNYA
PANAS BUMI
TENAGAAIR
EKSPEKTASI
Business as Usual
40%
38%
10%
5%
4%
Upaya I
Upaya
II
Upaya III
Upaya IV Upaya V
35
36. LAMPIRAN L
UPAYA OPTIMALISASI
• Upaya I : Mengurangi Minyak Bumi
– Coal liquefaction
– Pricing policy BBM
– Alternatif energi
– Pajak BBM
– Kebijakan Fiskal
• Upaya II : Meningkatkan Gas Bumi
– Perubahan paradigma penggunaan cadangan sehingga baik cadangan besar ataupun
kecil dapat dimanfaatkan untuk kebutuhan domestik
– Cadangan gas tidak ada masalah untuk memenuhi kebutuhan ekspor dan dalam
negeri (dalam UU Migas ada konsep mengenai DMO gas)
– Pricing policy BBM
– Pricing policy Gas
– Pembangunan infrastruktur gas
• Upaya III : Meningkatkan Batubara
– Cadangan batubara tidak ada masalah untuk memenuhi kebutuhan ekspor dan dalam
negeri
– Penetapan DMO terhadap batubara, termasuk pemberian insentif untuk mendorong
penggunaan coal liquefaction
• Upaya IV : Meningkatkan Panas Bumi
– Potensi panas bumi tidak ada masalah untuk memenuhi kebutuhan listrik
• Upaya V : Meningkatkan EBT Lainnya
36
37. Energy Share by Source – C1
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100
Other
Biomass
Solar
Nuclear
Hydro
Gas
Oil
Coal
Traditional
Year
37
38. Outlook for Resource Availability
uWEC projects adequate resource availability
over the next 100 years, but foresees that a
shift in sources will be driven by:
u Environmental impacts
u Economic recoverability of the resources
38
39. Net Carbon Emissions from Energy
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090
MtC
Year
A2
B
C1
39
40. Approaches To Stabilizing
GHG Emissions
uThere are two fundamental approaches on the
energy front:
u Reducing the impact of fossil fuels, i.e.,
“Decarbonizing” them
u Expanding the use of renewables or nuclear
Note: there are other ways of influencing
climate, including various forms of
Geo/Climate engineering
40
41. Decarbonizing Fossil Fuels
uApproaches include:
u Shifting to lower carbon fuels, e.g., gas vs. coal
u Improving the efficiency of use of such fuels
u Capturing and sequestering the carbon (CCS):
u“upstream” in the supply process, or
u “downstream” in the utilization process
uThese measures are necessary but not
sufficient – major expansion in the supply
from renewable sources is vital
41
42. Renewables
uRenewable sources include: hydro, biomass,
solar, wind, geothermal and various forms
of ocean/tidal/wave energy
uEach has its own peculiar advantages and
drawbacks
uOnly some can be exploited at a scale and
in a time frame that will make a significant
contribution
42
43. Sources Viewed as Limited
uHydro – only modest scope for expansion
uBiomass – important for fuels, but limited by
competition for land
uGeothermal - locally important, but not a
large-scale source unless the “Engineered
Geothermal Systems” approach can be
developed successfully
uOcean/tidal/wave - resources are immense
yet diffuse and expensive to exploit
43
44. Nuclear Outlook
uNuclear suffers from concerns over public
acceptance, final waste management and
proliferation risk
uLittle capacity is being added in the OECD
countries and some is being removed
uHowever, China, Russia and India have
ambitious programs
uMore widespread use may be needed to meet
emissions targets
44
45. Significant Renewables:
Solar and Wind
uTotal energy available from these sources is
immense, but the energy density is low
uProduct is largely electricity, the most useful
form of energy
uThe C1 scenario projects that these sources,
along with biomass for fuels, will be the
dominant sources of the future
45
46. Electricity from Solar and Wind
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090
Solar
Wind
Year
TWh
r
46
48. The Matter of Intermittency
uIt is critical to recognize that solar and wind
are intermittent sources and can be used
immediately by the power grid only to the
extent of 20 - 25% of production
uSolar and wind can be more fully exploited
to meet base load needs if storage can be
provided or if the electricity is used to
generate hydrogen
48
49. Electricity from Solar and Wind:
Extent of Immediate Use
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
1990 2040 2090
TWhr
Year
25% of Total
Stored
Total
Electricity
Electricity from
Solar + Wind
49
50. Cost Impact of Intermittency
uSolar and wind installations with storage (to
serve base load needs) will be more expensive
than those providing peak power
uCapital costs, by mid-century, of such plants is
estimated at ≈ $7000 per KWe
uIncremental investment to accommodate this
intermittency is estimated at ≈ $1T per year
beginning around 2040 (just over 1% of GWP)
50
51. Energy Investments
uRecent capital expenditures ≈ 1% of GWP
uImplementing energy scenarios that reduce
emissions significantly will be more costly
uStern Report documents cost estimates at
1% of GWP by 2050 to stabilize atmospheric
concentration of CO2 at 500-550ppm
uWEC notes costs unlikely to exceed 2% of
GWP
51
52. Outlook for Space Solar Power
uCapital costs for Space Solar Power
installations are estimated to be on the order
of $4000 per KWe
uIf terrestrial installations for solar and wind
providing base load power run $7,000 per
KWe and a Trillion dollars a year is needed to
build the needed capacity, then Space Solar
Power should be very competitive
52
53. An Assessment
uImplementing an energy future such as C1 will
be extremely challenging, requiring:
u Enormous investments
u Strong environmental policies
u Continuing international cooperation for decades
uConsequences of failing to follow such a path:
u Serious climate impacts or
u Expansion of nuclear supply and/or
u Resort to more use of fossil fuels
53
54. What Could Change This Picture?
uCheaper ways to store electricity
uPower grids of international scale
uEconomic means of exploiting geothermal or
ocean energy
uSuccess in exploiting nuclear fusion
54
55. Recommendations
uPromote a better general understanding of
the world energy situation
uSupport all plausible sources of sustainable
and clean energy, especially Space Solar
Power
uSupport policy actions that reduce emissions,
importantly, putting a price on carbon
uSupport policy actions that improve efficiency
uStart now
55
56. Take Away
uEnergy demand will continue to grow strongly
uAlternatives to “Business as Usual” can limit
emissions to acceptable levels
uRenewable sources will dominate
uInvestments need to be large
uStrong environmental policies will be required
uSpace Solar Power will be competitive
56
57. Reduction in World Oil Demand in the
Alternative vs. Reference Scenario, 2030
Transport
64%
Other
4%
Industry
13%
Power generation
8%
Residential and
services
11%
Oil savings = 12.8 mb/d
Oil savings in 2030 would be equivalent to the combined
current production of Saudi Arabia, UAE and Nigeria
58. World Primary Energy Demand
Fossil fuels account for almost 90% of the growth in energy
demand between now and 2030
Oil
Natural gas
Coal
Nuclear power
Hydro power
Other renewables
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
7 000
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Mtoe
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
7 000
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Mtoe
59. 0
4 000
8 000
12 000
16 000
20 000
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
MtofCO2
OECD Transition economies Developing countries
Global emissions grow 62% between 2002 & 2030, and
developing countries’ emissions will overtake OECD’s in the 2020s
World Energy-Related CO2 Emissions
60. Growth in World Energy Demand
and CO2 Emissions
Average carbon content of primary energy increases
slightly through 2030 – in contrast to past trends
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
1971-2002 2002-2030
averageannualgrowthrate
Primary energy demand CO2 Emissions
61. Net Natural Gas Imports, 2030
Net gas imports are lower in all major importing regions,
except China
0
200
400
600
OECD North
America
OECD Europe OECD Asia China
bcm
Reference Scenario Alternative Scenario
62. OECD CO2 Emissions in the Reference
and Alternative Scenarios
OECD CO2 emissions peak around 2020 – 25% higher than in
1990
Alternative Scenario
11 000
12 000
13 000
14 000
15 000
16 000
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
MtofCO2
Reference Scenario
63. Contributory Factors in CO2 Reduction
2002-2030
Improvements in end-use efficiency contribute for more than
half of decrease in emissions, and renewables use for 20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
49%
10%
21%
12%
8%
OECD
63%
1%
21%
15%
Transition economies
67%
7%
17%
5%
4%
Developing countries
58%
World
End-use efficiency gains
7%
Fuel switching in end uses
20%
Increased renewables in power generation
10%
Increased nuclear in power generation
5%
Changes in the fossil-fuel mix in power generation
64. Difference in Electricity Investment in
the Alternative vs. Reference Scenario
2003-2030
Additional investments on the demand side are more than offset by
lower investment on the supply side
-2 000
-1 500
-1 000
- 500
0
500
1 000
billiondollars(2000)
Difference
Additional demand-side
investment
Efficiency
measures Avoided supply-side
investment
Generation
Transmission
Distribution
65. Ocean Energy
lPotensi luasan laut dan samudera
belum banyak dijadikan sumber
energy terbarukan
lPerubahan ke Blue Economy :
memanfaatkan seluruh potensi
kelautan termasuk untuk food dan
energy
lMendorong pemanfaatan terintegrasi
66. HIGH-TECH
AQUACULTURE
OCEAN ENERGY
ROBOTICS
ADVANCED SEABED MAPPING
DEEP-SEA FRONTIER
SENSORS &
REMOTE
Acknowledgement: Prof John Delaney
Univ Washington
A dynamic maritime economy, in harmony
with the environment; supported by
sound science and technology, which
allows human beings to continue to reap
the rich harvest from the oceans in a
sustainable manner.
Integrated Maritime Policy for the EU (2007)
67. Apa yang harus dimulai
l Renewable energy integration
l Transportation strategy restructuring
l New strategy for product, process and
equipment utlising renewable energy
l Waste treatment and management
l Energy pedesaan dan energy pada agro
industry
l Industri dan rumah tangga bermigrasi ke
gas
l Peningkatan produktivitas secara
menyeluruh dalam berbagai sektor terkait
68. Basel: a city with a vision
44% of households car-free
"2000 watt society – Basel pilot regio
74. Space Required to Transport Same Number of Passengers
Why Public Transit?
Source: GTZ (2009), Sustainable Urban Transport: A Sourcebook for Policy-makers in South Asian Cities
79. Kesadaran Lingkungan
• Pengembangan kesadaran lingkungan harus
terintegrasi dengan proses pembelajaran,
perubahan perilaku dan penghitungan cost
secara terpadu
• Research and development to integrate
energy and environment. Creative economy
• Pengembangan energy terbarukan harus
dilakukan secara cepat, radikal, massiv dan
punya pertimbangan komersial
80.
81.
82. END OF SLIDES
THANK YOU
Kresnayana Yahya
Email: kresna49@yahoo.com
Blog: http://www.kresnayana.com
82Enciety Business Consult